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題名 新能源汽車補貼政策的有效性分析—以中國為例
Effectiveness Analysis of New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Policy— A Case Study in China作者 范姜妍妮
Fan Chiang, Yen-Ni貢獻者 胡偉民
Hu, Wei-Min
范姜妍妮
Fan Chiang, Yen-Ni關鍵詞 雙重差分法
傾向得分匹配
新能源汽車
財政補助
DID
Propensity Score Matching
New Energy Vehicles
Financial Subsidy日期 2021 上傳時間 4-Aug-2021 16:06:33 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文針對首波於2010年6月中國政府發布《關於開展私人購買新能源汽車補貼試點的通知》，欲探討受到此政策激勵，私人購買新能源汽車的有效性分析。其中，首波私人試點城市為本文主要的研究對象，包含：上海、深圳、杭州、合肥、長春，資料期間為2009年1月至2015年12月，共84期。本文研究使用PSM-DID模型，為了符合平行趨勢，使用傾向得分匹配方法尋找控制組，欲分析的實驗組因受到的政策影響不只有一個、政策發生在不同時點，因此為多期DID模型。主要的研究結果如下：1.在未加入時間趨勢下，政策初期對於私人試點城市來說，有增加購買新能源汽車的效果，也就是相對於控制組來說，在政策初期因為激勵政策而購買新能源汽車有正向效果。加入時間趨勢後發現，後期的效果轉為負向，可能原因為試點城市的增加、受到政策補助的城市越來越多…等。隨著時間推移、技術進步、配套措施相對於初期較完善，後來加入試點之城市購買新能源汽車的數量增加，因此相較於原私人試點城市，新享受到補貼政策的城市有較大的激勵效果。2.配套措施與新能源汽車銷售呈正相關。在一定財政補助基礎之下，許多消費者購買新能源汽車的原因是在於是否有充足的配套措施，因此配套措施不完善，單純依賴財政補助政策，並不是在推行政策中較有效的方法。當消費者認為傳統的方式也可以達到目標且不受拘束，那麼新推出的政策將對其無效。因此推行新政策時，應該要考慮是否能讓消費者達到與之前消費、使用的行為模式一樣或者比之前更好，政策才會有效果。
Since June 2010, China’s government has launched the “Pilot subsidy program for the private purchase of new energy vehicles”. The pilot work in five cities, including Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Hefei. This research uses the PSM-DID model to analyze whether the first pilot cities of subsidies for new energy vehicles are effective for private purchases from January 2009 to December 2015. To hold the assumptions of the parallel trend, this research used the propensity score matching method to find those control group cities. In addition, the treatment group is effect over one policy and may go through different time points. Therefore, this research used a multi-period DID model. The major results are:1.Compared with the control group, the initial stage of the policy has the effect of increasing the purchase of new energy vehicles for private pilot cities in the absence of the time trend. After increasing the time trend, the effect in the later period turns negative. The reasons are the increase of pilot cities, and more and more cities receiving policy subsidies. As time goes by, the technology advances, and the supporting measures are more complete than the initial period. This will increase the number of new energy vehicles purchased by cities that are piloting. Therefore, compared with the original private pilot cities, cities that are newly enjoying the subsidy policy have a greater incentive effect.2.The supporting measures and the sales of new energy vehicles were positively correlated with each other. Under a certain financial subsidy basis, the reason for many consumer purchases of new energy vehicles is whether there are sufficient supporting measures. Therefore, supporting measures are not perfect, and relying solely on financial subsidy policies is not a more effective way to implement policies. When a consumer thinks that the traditional way can also achieve the goal without restraint, then the newly introduced policy will be invalid for him. Therefore, when implementing a new policy, it should be considered whether consumers can achieve the same or better behavior than the previous model of consumption and use before the policy will affect.參考文獻 Huo, H., Zhang, Q., Wang, M. q, Streets, D. g, & He, K. (2010). Environmental Implication of Electric Vehicles in China. Environmental Science & Technology, 44(13), 4856–4861.Jenn, A., Azevedo, I. L., & Ferreira, P. (2013). The Impact of Federal Incentives on the Adoption of Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States. Energy Economics, 40, 936–942.Klöckner, C. A., Nayum, A., & Mehmetoglu, M. (2013). Positive and Negative Spillover Effects from Electric Car Purchase to Car Use. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 21, 32–38.Li, W., Long, R., & Chen, H. (2016). Consumers’ Evaluation of National New Energy Vehicle Policy in China: An Analysis Based on a Four Paradigm Model. Energy Policy, 99, 33–41.Ozaki, R., & Sevastyanova, K. (2011). Going Hybrid: An Analysis of Consumer Purchase Motivations. Energy Policy, 39(5), 2217–2227.Romm, J. (2006). The Car and Fuel of the Future. Energy Policy, 34(17), 2609–2614.Wang, S., Li, J., & Zhao, D. (2017). The Impact of Policy Measures on Consumer Intention to Adopt Electric Vehicles: Evidence from China. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 105, 14–26.Zhang, X., Wang, K., Hao, Y., Fan, J. L., & Wei, Y. M. (2013). The Impact of Government Policy on Preference for NEVs: The Evidence from China. Energy Policy, 61, 382–393.Zhong, M. (2020). Strength Evaluation of Incentive Policies for New Energy Vehicles: A Case Study Based on 19 Cities in China. World Scientific Research Journal, 6(5), 257–274. doi:10.6911/WSRJ.202005_6(5).0028江飛濤、魏曉潔(2012)。中國汽車工業低碳競爭力探討——兼論中國新能源汽車發展中的問題與對策。中國經貿導刊，000(002)，29-32。姜愛華、生享璐(2017)。新能源汽車消費者購買意圖影響因素及引導政策研究。財政科學，05(No.414)，14-28。殷正遠、王方華(2013)。消費者對於新能源汽車購買意願差異比較。上海管理科學，35(4)，15-19。鄔順全、吳騁、賀佳(2013)。傾向性評分匹配法在多分類數據中的比較和應用。中國衛生信息管理雜誌，10(5)，448-451。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
108255027資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108255027 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 胡偉民 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hu, Wei-Min en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 范姜妍妮 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Fan Chiang, Yen-Ni en_US dc.creator (作者) 范姜妍妮 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Fan Chiang, Yen-Ni en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Aug-2021 16:06:33 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Aug-2021 16:06:33 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Aug-2021 16:06:33 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108255027 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136595 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108255027 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文針對首波於2010年6月中國政府發布《關於開展私人購買新能源汽車補貼試點的通知》，欲探討受到此政策激勵，私人購買新能源汽車的有效性分析。其中，首波私人試點城市為本文主要的研究對象，包含：上海、深圳、杭州、合肥、長春，資料期間為2009年1月至2015年12月，共84期。本文研究使用PSM-DID模型，為了符合平行趨勢，使用傾向得分匹配方法尋找控制組，欲分析的實驗組因受到的政策影響不只有一個、政策發生在不同時點，因此為多期DID模型。主要的研究結果如下：1.在未加入時間趨勢下，政策初期對於私人試點城市來說，有增加購買新能源汽車的效果，也就是相對於控制組來說，在政策初期因為激勵政策而購買新能源汽車有正向效果。加入時間趨勢後發現，後期的效果轉為負向，可能原因為試點城市的增加、受到政策補助的城市越來越多…等。隨著時間推移、技術進步、配套措施相對於初期較完善，後來加入試點之城市購買新能源汽車的數量增加，因此相較於原私人試點城市，新享受到補貼政策的城市有較大的激勵效果。2.配套措施與新能源汽車銷售呈正相關。在一定財政補助基礎之下，許多消費者購買新能源汽車的原因是在於是否有充足的配套措施，因此配套措施不完善，單純依賴財政補助政策，並不是在推行政策中較有效的方法。當消費者認為傳統的方式也可以達到目標且不受拘束，那麼新推出的政策將對其無效。因此推行新政策時，應該要考慮是否能讓消費者達到與之前消費、使用的行為模式一樣或者比之前更好，政策才會有效果。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since June 2010, China’s government has launched the “Pilot subsidy program for the private purchase of new energy vehicles”. The pilot work in five cities, including Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Hefei. This research uses the PSM-DID model to analyze whether the first pilot cities of subsidies for new energy vehicles are effective for private purchases from January 2009 to December 2015. To hold the assumptions of the parallel trend, this research used the propensity score matching method to find those control group cities. In addition, the treatment group is effect over one policy and may go through different time points. Therefore, this research used a multi-period DID model. The major results are:1.Compared with the control group, the initial stage of the policy has the effect of increasing the purchase of new energy vehicles for private pilot cities in the absence of the time trend. After increasing the time trend, the effect in the later period turns negative. The reasons are the increase of pilot cities, and more and more cities receiving policy subsidies. As time goes by, the technology advances, and the supporting measures are more complete than the initial period. This will increase the number of new energy vehicles purchased by cities that are piloting. Therefore, compared with the original private pilot cities, cities that are newly enjoying the subsidy policy have a greater incentive effect.2.The supporting measures and the sales of new energy vehicles were positively correlated with each other. Under a certain financial subsidy basis, the reason for many consumer purchases of new energy vehicles is whether there are sufficient supporting measures. Therefore, supporting measures are not perfect, and relying solely on financial subsidy policies is not a more effective way to implement policies. When a consumer thinks that the traditional way can also achieve the goal without restraint, then the newly introduced policy will be invalid for him. Therefore, when implementing a new policy, it should be considered whether consumers can achieve the same or better behavior than the previous model of consumption and use before the policy will affect. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景及動機 1第二節 研究目的 3第三節 研究流程 3第二章 背景與政策介紹 4第一節 2010年至2012年私人試點城市政策梳理 4第二節 2013年至2015年私人試點城市政策梳理 9第三章 文獻回顧 14第一節 新能源汽車的重要性及政策有效性 14第二節 新能源汽車對消費者購買行為之因素 15第三節 文獻評述 16第四章 研究方法 17第一節 實證模型 17第二節 變數定義 29第五章 資料來源與統計分析 30第一節 資料庫說明與彙整 30第二節 敘述性統計 31第六章 實證結果 33第一節 新能源汽車銷售數量 33第二節 新能源汽車銷售占比 36第七章 結論 39第一節 研究結論與建議 39第二節 研究限制 40參考文獻 41附錄 43 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1754812 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108255027 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 雙重差分法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 傾向得分匹配 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新能源汽車 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財政補助 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) DID en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Propensity Score Matching en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) New Energy Vehicles en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Financial Subsidy en_US dc.title (題名) 新能源汽車補貼政策的有效性分析—以中國為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Effectiveness Analysis of New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Policy— A Case Study in China en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Huo, H., Zhang, Q., Wang, M. q, Streets, D. g, & He, K. (2010). Environmental Implication of Electric Vehicles in China. Environmental Science & Technology, 44(13), 4856–4861.Jenn, A., Azevedo, I. L., & Ferreira, P. (2013). The Impact of Federal Incentives on the Adoption of Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States. Energy Economics, 40, 936–942.Klöckner, C. A., Nayum, A., & Mehmetoglu, M. (2013). Positive and Negative Spillover Effects from Electric Car Purchase to Car Use. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 21, 32–38.Li, W., Long, R., & Chen, H. (2016). Consumers’ Evaluation of National New Energy Vehicle Policy in China: An Analysis Based on a Four Paradigm Model. Energy Policy, 99, 33–41.Ozaki, R., & Sevastyanova, K. (2011). Going Hybrid: An Analysis of Consumer Purchase Motivations. Energy Policy, 39(5), 2217–2227.Romm, J. (2006). The Car and Fuel of the Future. Energy Policy, 34(17), 2609–2614.Wang, S., Li, J., & Zhao, D. (2017). The Impact of Policy Measures on Consumer Intention to Adopt Electric Vehicles: Evidence from China. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 105, 14–26.Zhang, X., Wang, K., Hao, Y., Fan, J. L., & Wei, Y. M. (2013). The Impact of Government Policy on Preference for NEVs: The Evidence from China. Energy Policy, 61, 382–393.Zhong, M. (2020). Strength Evaluation of Incentive Policies for New Energy Vehicles: A Case Study Based on 19 Cities in China. World Scientific Research Journal, 6(5), 257–274. doi:10.6911/WSRJ.202005_6(5).0028江飛濤、魏曉潔(2012)。中國汽車工業低碳競爭力探討——兼論中國新能源汽車發展中的問題與對策。中國經貿導刊，000(002)，29-32。姜愛華、生享璐(2017)。新能源汽車消費者購買意圖影響因素及引導政策研究。財政科學，05(No.414)，14-28。殷正遠、王方華(2013)。消費者對於新能源汽車購買意願差異比較。上海管理科學，35(4)，15-19。鄔順全、吳騁、賀佳(2013)。傾向性評分匹配法在多分類數據中的比較和應用。中國衛生信息管理雜誌，10(5)，448-451。 zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100838 en_US
