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題名 新冠肺炎期間數位新聞媒體情緒與休閒不動產市場之關聯性研究
The Association between Digital News Media Sentiment and Leisure Real Estate Market during the Period of COVID-19作者 王俐琪
Wang, Li-Chi貢獻者 林左裕
Lin, Tso-Yu
王俐琪
Wang, Li-Chi關鍵詞 休閒不動產市場
新冠肺炎
ARDL-ECM
數位新聞媒體情緒
Leisure Real Estate
Covid-19
ARDL-ECM
News Media Sentiment日期 2021 上傳時間 2-Sep-2021 17:30:46 (UTC+8) 摘要 2020年逢新冠肺炎衝擊，疫情蔓延全球亦重創各國經濟，不動產領域中，相較住宅及商辦等不動產市場，觀光產業影響尤為嚴峻，本研究建立實證模型分析總體經濟與休閒不動產市場於疫情壟罩下之動態關係，並納入政府所採取之觀光紓困措施進行端量，另鑒於數位網路興起，本研究亦運用數位新聞媒體內容作為基礎，透過其中所隱含之情緒將其量化為數值進而創建市場情緒代理指數作為變數之一，觀察是否能藉此掌握並補足疫情不確定氛圍瀰漫下，基本面因素無法完整解釋之市場走向。本研究透過ARDL-ECM長短期檢定進行量化實證分析，研究結果顯示2020年疫情爆發期間，數位新聞媒體情緒與臺灣休閒不動產業營收產生正向關聯，本研究推斷媒體報導內容能間接反映出市場參與者之心理預期及其後續行為決策，可作為即時市場反應之觀察指標之一，彌補多數經濟指標發布滯後性之缺口，供政府及私人企業於政策等決策擬定上之參考。
The recent novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak is seeing a rapid spread worldwide and is affecting global economies. Despite rigorous medical countermeasures, the virus continues to severely hinder the development of different real estate segments, especially for tourism real estates. This study presents an empirical model to analyze the dynamic relationship between macroeconomy and the leisure real estate market during the pandemic. The model also includes the tourism relief package drafted by the government as a dummy variable. As digitalization becomes increasingly prominent, this study additionally considers digital news content as a proxy variable to evoke implicit sentiment, which is further quantified and used for index establishment.This study uses the “Auto Regression Distributed Lag” (ARDL) model to conduct quantitative empirical analysis. Results show that during the pandemic in 2020, the sentiment of digital news media has a positive association with the revenue of Taiwan’s leisure real estate industry. Thus, this paper postulates that content from media reports can indirectly reflect the psychological expectations of market participants and influence their subsequent behavioral decisions. In other words, news media sentiment can be one of the observation indicators for immediate market response, bridging the retardation problem of most economic indicators as well as providing governments and private companies references for policy-making.參考文獻 一、 中文參考文獻(一) 專書李銘輝、郭建興，2010，『觀光遊憩資源規劃』第十一版，台北，楊智文化事業股份有限公司。張紹勳，2012，『計量經濟及高等研究法』第一版，台北，五南圖書出版股份有限公司。楊奕農，2009，『時間序列分析 經濟與財務上之應用』第二版，台北:雙葉書廊有限公司。吳坤熙，2007，『觀光遊憩資源實務』第二版，台北，楊智文化事業股份有限公司。(二) 期刊論文江明珠、許秉凱，2019，「媒體新聞能否預測住房市場？」，住宅學報，28(2)，37-61。郝沛毅、歐仁彬、黃天受、林振穎、吳建生，2018，「透過新聞文章預測股價漲跌趨勢－結合情緒分析、主題模型與模糊支持向量機」，資訊管理學報，25(4)。張俊仁、林雪瑜、蘇芷嫺、楊淑珺，2019，「觀光外匯收入波動之總體經濟效果」，經濟論文， 47(2)，163-207。連姵如，2007，「開放大陸人士來臺觀光對臺灣經濟變數影響之研究」，臺灣大學國家發展研究所學位論文。聶建中與周明智，2003，「影響來臺旅遊人數及觀光外匯收入總體變數決定因素之研究。」，管理學報，19(6)，1153-1172。徐之強、葉錦徽，2009，「臺灣消費者信心指數與景氣循環關係之探討」，財團法人國家實驗研究院科技政策研究與資訊中心，98010102。(三) 博、碩士論文李宜蒼，2014，「影響來臺觀光旅遊關鍵經濟變數之探討」，中原大學國際經營與貿易研究所學位論文。林筱真，2016，「新聞媒體情感對於房價之影響」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。楊子江，2004，「SARS疫情經濟影響的事後分析」，國立臺灣大學農業經濟所碩士論文。 二、 英文參考文獻(一) 專書Han, J., Pei, J. and Kamber, M., 2011, “Data mining: concepts and techniques”, Elsevier.Koop, G. and Quinlivan, R., 2005, “Analysis of economic data”. John Wiley and Sons.(二) 期刊論文Aguilar, P., Ghirelli, C., Pacce, M. and Urtasun, A., 2020, “Can news help measure economic sentiment? An application in COVID-19 times”, Documentos de Trabajo, 2027.Akinsomi, O., 2020, “How resilient are REITs to a pandemic? The COVID-19 effect”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance.Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J., 2016, “Measuring economic policy uncertainty”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4),1593-1636.Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M. and Viratyosin, T., 2020, “The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19”, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies.Bakshi, R. K., Kaur, N., Kaur, R. and Kaur, G., 2016, “Opinion mining and sentiment analysis”, International Conference on Computing for Sustainable Global Development, 452-455.Barro, R. J., Ursúa, J. F. and Weng, J., 2020, “The coronavirus and the great influenza pandemic: Lessons from the “spanish flu” for the coronavirus’s potential effects on mortality and economic activity”, National Bureau of Economic Research, 26866.Buckman, S.R., Shapiro, A.H., Sudhof, M. and Wilson, D.J., 2020, “News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19”, FRBSF Economic Letter, 8:1-5.Chow, G. C., 1960, “Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 591-605.Choi, J. G., 2003, “Developing an economic indicator system (a forecasting technique) for the hotel industry”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 22(2), 147-159.Chang, D. C. and Ma, L., 2009, “Operational Hedging and Exchange Rate Risk: A Cross-sectional Examination of Canada’s REVENUE Industry”, Cornell Hospitality Report, 9(15): 1-18.Chen, M. H., 2013, “Asymmetric response of hospitality stock prices to Fed policy actions”, International Journal of Hospitality Management,33, 129-139.Chen, R., Liang, C.Y., Hong, W.C. and Gu, D.X., 2015, “Forecasting holiday daily tourist flow based on seasonal support vector regression with adaptive genetic algorithm”, Applied Soft Computing, 26, 435-443.Chen, H., Chen, R., Bernard, S. and Rahman, I., 2019, “US REVENUE industry revenue: an ARDL bounds testing approach”, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.Chiong, R., Fan, Z., Hu, Z., Adam, M. T., Lutz, B. and Neumann, D., 2018, “A sentiment analysis-based machine learning approach for financial market prediction via news disclosures”, Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference Companion, 278-279.El Menyari, Y., 2020, “Effect of tourism FDI and international tourism to the economic growth in Morocco: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach”, Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 1-21.Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W., 1987, “Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing”, Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.Gössling, S., Scott, D. and Hall, C. M., 2020, “Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid assessment of COVID-19”, Journal of Sustainable Tourism,1-20.Gu, Z., 1995, “The relationship between interest rate and tourism activities”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 14(3-4), 239-243.Hung, W. T., Shang, J. K. and Wang, F. C., 2010, “Pricing determinants in the hotel industry: Quantile regression analysis”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 29(3), 378-384.Haroon, O. and Rizvi, S. A. R., 2020, “COVID-19: Media coverage and financial markets behavior—A sectoral inquiry”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 100343.Hadood, A. and Irani, F., 2020, “Impact of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty on travel and leisure stock return”, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights.Johansen, S. and Juselius, K., 1990, “Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.Karatepe, O. M., 2013, “High-performance work practices and hotel employee performance: The mediation of work engagement”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 32, 132-140.Kaczmarek, T., Perez, K., Demir, E. and Zaremba, A., 2021, “How to survive a pandemic: The corporate resiliency of travel and leisure companies to the COVID-19 outbreak”, Tourism Management, 84, 104281.Ling, D.C., Wang, C. and Zhou, T., 2020, “A First Look at the Impact of COVID19 on Commercial Real Estate Prices”, Asset Level Evidence, 3593101.Mohammed, I., Guillet, B.D. and Law, R., 2015, “The contributions of economics to hospitality literature: A content analysis of hospitality and tourism journals”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 44, 99-110.Meo, M. S., Chowdhury, M. A. F., Shaikh, G. M., Ali, M. and Masood Sheikh, S., 2018, “Asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL.” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(4), 408-422.Noone, B. M. and Mattila, A. S., 2009, “Hotel revenue management and the Internet: The effect of price presentation strategies on customers’ willingness to book”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 28(2), 272-279.Ngo, T., 2017, “Exchange rate exposure of REITs”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 64, 249-258.Nguyen, K. and La Cava, G., 2020, “News Sentiment and the Economy”, RBA Bulletin, 10.Ozdemir, O., Han, W. and Dalbor, M., 2021, “Economic policy uncertainty and hotel occupancy: the mediating effect of consumer sentiment”, Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights.Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y., 1999, “An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis” Chapter 11 in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press.Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J., 2001, “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.Prager, F., Wei, D. and Rose, A., 2017, “Total economic consequences of an influenza outbreak in the United States”, Risk Analysis, 37(1), 4-19.Patel, J. and Sridhar, D., 2020, “We should learn from the Asia–Pacific responses to COVID-19”, The Lancet Regional Health–Western Pacific, 5.Shapiro, A. H., Sudhof, M. and Wilson, D. J., 2020, “Measuring news sentiment.” Journal of Econometrics, 2017-10.Schwitzer, G., Mudur, G., Henry, D., Wilson, A., Goozner, M., Simbra, M. and Baverstock, K. A., 2005, “What are the roles and responsibilities of the media in disseminating health information?”, PLoS Medicine, 2(7), 215.Tetlock, P. C., 2007, “Giving content to investor sentiment: The role of media in the stock market”, The Journal of finance, 62(3), 1139-1168.Uzuner, G. and Ghosh, S., 2020, “Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?”, Quality and Quantity, 1-19.Verikios, G., McCaw, J. M., McVernon, J., and Harris, A. H., 2012, “H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy”, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 17(1), 22-51. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
108257006資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108257006 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tso-Yu en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 王俐琪 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wang, Li-Chi en_US dc.creator (作者) 王俐琪 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wang, Li-Chi en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2021 17:30:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2021 17:30:46 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2021 17:30:46 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108257006 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/137038 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 地政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108257006 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2020年逢新冠肺炎衝擊，疫情蔓延全球亦重創各國經濟，不動產領域中，相較住宅及商辦等不動產市場，觀光產業影響尤為嚴峻，本研究建立實證模型分析總體經濟與休閒不動產市場於疫情壟罩下之動態關係，並納入政府所採取之觀光紓困措施進行端量，另鑒於數位網路興起，本研究亦運用數位新聞媒體內容作為基礎，透過其中所隱含之情緒將其量化為數值進而創建市場情緒代理指數作為變數之一，觀察是否能藉此掌握並補足疫情不確定氛圍瀰漫下，基本面因素無法完整解釋之市場走向。本研究透過ARDL-ECM長短期檢定進行量化實證分析，研究結果顯示2020年疫情爆發期間，數位新聞媒體情緒與臺灣休閒不動產業營收產生正向關聯，本研究推斷媒體報導內容能間接反映出市場參與者之心理預期及其後續行為決策，可作為即時市場反應之觀察指標之一，彌補多數經濟指標發布滯後性之缺口，供政府及私人企業於政策等決策擬定上之參考。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The recent novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak is seeing a rapid spread worldwide and is affecting global economies. Despite rigorous medical countermeasures, the virus continues to severely hinder the development of different real estate segments, especially for tourism real estates. This study presents an empirical model to analyze the dynamic relationship between macroeconomy and the leisure real estate market during the pandemic. The model also includes the tourism relief package drafted by the government as a dummy variable. As digitalization becomes increasingly prominent, this study additionally considers digital news content as a proxy variable to evoke implicit sentiment, which is further quantified and used for index establishment.This study uses the “Auto Regression Distributed Lag” (ARDL) model to conduct quantitative empirical analysis. Results show that during the pandemic in 2020, the sentiment of digital news media has a positive association with the revenue of Taiwan’s leisure real estate industry. Thus, this paper postulates that content from media reports can indirectly reflect the psychological expectations of market participants and influence their subsequent behavioral decisions. In other words, news media sentiment can be one of the observation indicators for immediate market response, bridging the retardation problem of most economic indicators as well as providing governments and private companies references for policy-making. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究範圍與方法 4第三節 研究架構與流程 6第二章 文獻回顧 9第一節 休閒不動產定義及影響因素 9第二節 近代疫情下經濟及休閒不動產市場影響 11第三節 情緒與總體經濟市場之關聯 14第四節 小結 18第三章 研究設計與資料處理 19第一節 研究設計 19第二節 實證模型建立 21第三節 資料說明與變數選取 25第四節 變數敘述統計與時間序列趨勢圖 31第五節 實證模型設定 34第四章 實證結果分析 37第一節 結構性轉變檢定 37第二節 單根檢定 39第三節 ARDL自我分配落遲模型檢定結果 44第五章 結論與建議 57第一節 結論 57第二節 建議 58參考文獻 61 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2617806 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108257006 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 休閒不動產市場 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新冠肺炎 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) ARDL-ECM zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 數位新聞媒體情緒 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Leisure Real Estate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Covid-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) ARDL-ECM en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) News Media Sentiment en_US dc.title (題名) 新冠肺炎期間數位新聞媒體情緒與休閒不動產市場之關聯性研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Association between Digital News Media Sentiment and Leisure Real Estate Market during the Period of COVID-19 en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文參考文獻(一) 專書李銘輝、郭建興，2010，『觀光遊憩資源規劃』第十一版，台北，楊智文化事業股份有限公司。張紹勳，2012，『計量經濟及高等研究法』第一版，台北，五南圖書出版股份有限公司。楊奕農，2009，『時間序列分析 經濟與財務上之應用』第二版，台北:雙葉書廊有限公司。吳坤熙，2007，『觀光遊憩資源實務』第二版，台北，楊智文化事業股份有限公司。(二) 期刊論文江明珠、許秉凱，2019，「媒體新聞能否預測住房市場？」，住宅學報，28(2)，37-61。郝沛毅、歐仁彬、黃天受、林振穎、吳建生，2018，「透過新聞文章預測股價漲跌趨勢－結合情緒分析、主題模型與模糊支持向量機」，資訊管理學報，25(4)。張俊仁、林雪瑜、蘇芷嫺、楊淑珺，2019，「觀光外匯收入波動之總體經濟效果」，經濟論文， 47(2)，163-207。連姵如，2007，「開放大陸人士來臺觀光對臺灣經濟變數影響之研究」，臺灣大學國家發展研究所學位論文。聶建中與周明智，2003，「影響來臺旅遊人數及觀光外匯收入總體變數決定因素之研究。」，管理學報，19(6)，1153-1172。徐之強、葉錦徽，2009，「臺灣消費者信心指數與景氣循環關係之探討」，財團法人國家實驗研究院科技政策研究與資訊中心，98010102。(三) 博、碩士論文李宜蒼，2014，「影響來臺觀光旅遊關鍵經濟變數之探討」，中原大學國際經營與貿易研究所學位論文。林筱真，2016，「新聞媒體情感對於房價之影響」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。楊子江，2004，「SARS疫情經濟影響的事後分析」，國立臺灣大學農業經濟所碩士論文。 二、 英文參考文獻(一) 專書Han, J., Pei, J. and Kamber, M., 2011, “Data mining: concepts and techniques”, Elsevier.Koop, G. and Quinlivan, R., 2005, “Analysis of economic data”. John Wiley and Sons.(二) 期刊論文Aguilar, P., Ghirelli, C., Pacce, M. and Urtasun, A., 2020, “Can news help measure economic sentiment? An application in COVID-19 times”, Documentos de Trabajo, 2027.Akinsomi, O., 2020, “How resilient are REITs to a pandemic? The COVID-19 effect”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance.Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J., 2016, “Measuring economic policy uncertainty”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4),1593-1636.Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M. and Viratyosin, T., 2020, “The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19”, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies.Bakshi, R. K., Kaur, N., Kaur, R. and Kaur, G., 2016, “Opinion mining and sentiment analysis”, International Conference on Computing for Sustainable Global Development, 452-455.Barro, R. J., Ursúa, J. F. and Weng, J., 2020, “The coronavirus and the great influenza pandemic: Lessons from the “spanish flu” for the coronavirus’s potential effects on mortality and economic activity”, National Bureau of Economic Research, 26866.Buckman, S.R., Shapiro, A.H., Sudhof, M. and Wilson, D.J., 2020, “News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19”, FRBSF Economic Letter, 8:1-5.Chow, G. C., 1960, “Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 591-605.Choi, J. G., 2003, “Developing an economic indicator system (a forecasting technique) for the hotel industry”, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 22(2), 147-159.Chang, D. C. and Ma, L., 2009, “Operational Hedging and Exchange Rate Risk: A Cross-sectional Examination of Canada’s REVENUE Industry”, Cornell Hospitality Report, 9(15): 1-18.Chen, M. 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