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題名 測量與比較艾奎諾與杜特蒂掌政下菲律賓在中美之間的外交抉擇行為
WHO IS MY NEIGHBOR? MEASURING PHILIPPINE ALIGNMENT BEHAVIOR BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES UNDER AQUINO AND DUTERTE
作者 柯禔瑜
Cua, Teri
貢獻者 王信實
Wang, Shinn-Shyr
柯禔瑜
Cua, Teri
關鍵詞 菲律賓結盟戰略
Duterte外交政策
Aquino外交政策
亞洲區域強國
美菲關係
中菲關係
Philippine alignment strategy
Duterte foreign policy
Aquino foreign policy
Asian regional power
US-Philippine relations
China-Philippine relations
日期 2021
上傳時間 1-Nov-2021 12:23:26 (UTC+8)
摘要 在美中兩強的競爭中，亞太地區如菲律賓等小國必須在戰略上與大國結盟。在過去的幾十年裡，不同領導人領導下的菲律賓以各種的形式做到了這一點，本研究則著重於 Benigno Aquino III 和 Rodrigo Roa Duterte 兩位領導人的比較。簡而言之，前者選擇了一種平衡戰略，積極尋求與美國軍事和經濟的連結，並在與中國的領土爭端問題上採取激進的立場。相較之下，後者擱置了菲律賓與華盛頓根深蒂固的關係，轉而支持與鄰近霸權的經濟友好關係，並尋求南海議題的合作與和平解決。本研究透過總統的互訪做為政治因素，市場互動做為經濟指標，以及公眾輿論做為社會傾向，以衡量兩屆政府在這三個面向的異同。研究結果顯示，在所有這三個面向，Aquino政府都傾向於與美國合作，而Duterte政府相對於前任領導人所奉行的外交政策，則表現出對中國漸進的轉向。
Between the rivalry of the United States and China, small countries such as the Philippines must strategically align themselves. Over the past decades, the country under various leaders have done it one way or another. This study focuses on the alignment behavior that resulted from the leadership of Benigno Aquino III and Rodrigo Roa Duterte. The former chose a balancing strategy by actively pursuing military and economic ties with the United States and taking an aggressive stance on the matter of territorial disputes with China. In contrast, the latter sets aside the Philippines’ deeply rooted ties with Washington in favor of economic amities with its neighboring hegemon, and peace and cooperation in the South China Sea. The marked contrast of the two administrations are quantifiably measured in this study through presidential visits as political factors, market interaction as economic indicators, and public opinion as social leaning. The findings show that in all of these fronts, the Aquino administration favors cooperation with the United States, while the Duterte administration exhibits an obtuse pivot towards China relative to the foreign policies pursued by the previous leadership.
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Blanchard, B. (2016, October 20). Duterte aligns Philippines with China, says U.S. has lost. Retrieved June 1, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-idUSKCN12K0AS
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Corrales, N. (2016, May 16). PH, China ink pact on building 2 Pasig River bridges. Retrieved June 1, 2021, from https://globalnation.inquirer.net/156784/ph-china-ink-pact-building-2-pasig-river-bridges
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de Castro, R. (2009). The US-Philippine Alliance: An Evolving Hedge against an Emerging China Challenge. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 31(3), 399-423.
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de Castro, R. C. (2016). The Early Duterte Presidency in the Philippines. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 3(35), 139-159.
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Downing, L. (2014, April 29). Obama says U.S. commitment to defend Philippines `ironclad`. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-obama-idUSBREA3S02T20140429
Durani, S. (2018, August 24). The Role of Public Opinion in Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 2021, from Center for Strategic Analysis and Research - CESRAN: https://cesran.org/the-role-of-public-opinion-in-foreign-policy.html
Gangi, Y., & Ahmed, M. (2017, April). The Impact of International Relations on Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment: A Case Study of Sudan. Journal of Applied Economics and Business, 5(1), 46-66.
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Goldsmith, B., Horiuchi, Y., & Matush, K. (2021, June 7). Does Public Diplomacy Sway Foreign Public Opinion? Identifying the Effect of High-Level Visits. American Political Science Review, 1-16.
Heydarian, R. (2017). Evolving Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle: International and Domestic Drivers: Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle. Asian Politics & Policy, 9(4), 564-582.
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Mercado, N. A. (2019, September 1). After ‘productive talks,’ Duterte arrives in Manila after official visit in China Read more: https://globalnation.inquirer.net/179603/after-productive-talks-duterte-arrives-in-manila-after-official-visit-in-china#ixzz6wntiPtZo Follow us: @inquirerdotnet . Retrieved June 4, 2021, from https://globalnation.inquirer.net/179603/after-productive-talks-duterte-arrives-in-manila-after-official-visit-in-china
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
108266011
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108266011
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 王信實zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wang, Shinn-Shyren_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 柯禔瑜zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Cua, Terien_US
dc.creator (作者) 柯禔瑜zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Cua, Terien_US
dc.date (日期) 2021en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Nov-2021 12:23:26 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Nov-2021 12:23:26 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Nov-2021 12:23:26 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108266011en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/137742-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 108266011zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在美中兩強的競爭中，亞太地區如菲律賓等小國必須在戰略上與大國結盟。在過去的幾十年裡，不同領導人領導下的菲律賓以各種的形式做到了這一點，本研究則著重於 Benigno Aquino III 和 Rodrigo Roa Duterte 兩位領導人的比較。簡而言之，前者選擇了一種平衡戰略，積極尋求與美國軍事和經濟的連結，並在與中國的領土爭端問題上採取激進的立場。相較之下，後者擱置了菲律賓與華盛頓根深蒂固的關係，轉而支持與鄰近霸權的經濟友好關係，並尋求南海議題的合作與和平解決。本研究透過總統的互訪做為政治因素，市場互動做為經濟指標，以及公眾輿論做為社會傾向，以衡量兩屆政府在這三個面向的異同。研究結果顯示，在所有這三個面向，Aquino政府都傾向於與美國合作，而Duterte政府相對於前任領導人所奉行的外交政策，則表現出對中國漸進的轉向。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Between the rivalry of the United States and China, small countries such as the Philippines must strategically align themselves. Over the past decades, the country under various leaders have done it one way or another. This study focuses on the alignment behavior that resulted from the leadership of Benigno Aquino III and Rodrigo Roa Duterte. The former chose a balancing strategy by actively pursuing military and economic ties with the United States and taking an aggressive stance on the matter of territorial disputes with China. In contrast, the latter sets aside the Philippines’ deeply rooted ties with Washington in favor of economic amities with its neighboring hegemon, and peace and cooperation in the South China Sea. The marked contrast of the two administrations are quantifiably measured in this study through presidential visits as political factors, market interaction as economic indicators, and public opinion as social leaning. The findings show that in all of these fronts, the Aquino administration favors cooperation with the United States, while the Duterte administration exhibits an obtuse pivot towards China relative to the foreign policies pursued by the previous leadership.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Introduction 1
A. Background 1
B. Research Question 2
C. Research Objectives 2
D. Significance of the Study 3
E. Scope and Limitations 3
Review of Related Literature 4
A. Inter-state relations 4
Asymmetrical Relations 4
Balancing and Bandwagoning 6
Hedging 7
Strategic Triangle 8
Double Asymmetry 9
B. Philippine Context 11
The Philippines between China and the US 11
The PH-US-CN relationship under Aquino and Duterte 15
Measuring alignment strategy 18
Reasons for the shift 19
C. Summary of related literature 20
D. Gaps in knowledge 21
Research Design and Methodology 23
A. Theoretical Framework 23
B. Conceptual Framework 24
Diagram 24
Political strategy and foreign policy 25
Economic strategy and foreign policy 26
Social leaning and foreign policy 28
C. Data Collection Methods 29
Data and Analysis 30
A. Political Strategy 30
Presidential Visits and Receptions of Benigno Aquino III 30
Presidential Visits and Receptions of Rodrigo Roa Duterte 33
B. Economic Strategy 37
Foreign direct investment 37
Foreign trade dependency 39
Economic strategy score 41
C. Social Leaning 43
D. Scoring and Comparison 50
Political strategy 50
Economic Strategy 52
Social leaning 53
Conclusion 55
Bibliography 58		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1702422 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108266011en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 菲律賓結盟戰略zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Duterte外交政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Aquino外交政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 亞洲區域強國zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美菲關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中菲關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Philippine alignment strategyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Duterte foreign policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Aquino foreign policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Asian regional poweren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) US-Philippine relationsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) China-Philippine relationsen_US
dc.title (題名) 測量與比較艾奎諾與杜特蒂掌政下菲律賓在中美之間的外交抉擇行為zh_TW
dc.title (題名) WHO IS MY NEIGHBOR? MEASURING PHILIPPINE ALIGNMENT BEHAVIOR BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES UNDER AQUINO AND DUTERTEen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Beijing rejects tribunal`s ruling in South China Sea case. (2016, July 12). Retrieved from The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/12/philippines-wins-south-china-sea-case-against-china
Blanchard, B. (2016, October 20). Duterte aligns Philippines with China, says U.S. has lost. Retrieved June 1, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-idUSKCN12K0AS
Cheng, W. (2010, December 13). PNoy stands by decision to boycott Nobel rite. (ABS-CBN News) Retrieved June 22, 2021, from https://news.abs-cbn.com/nation/12/13/10/pnoy-stands-decision-boycott-nobel-rite
Chiang, J. (2017). Philippine Foreign Policy in the 21st Century: the Influence of Double-Asymmetric Structure. Retrieved from https://web.isanet.org/Web/Conferences/HKU2017-s/Archive/e35950e1-db89-4726-b72e-671a86b59ca3.pdf
China’s Xi says ‘deeply touched,’ ‘impressed’ by Duterte during Manila visit. (2018, November 22). (ABS-CBN News) Retrieved June 21, 2021, from https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/22/18/chinas-xi-says-deeply-touched-impressed-by-duterte-during-manila-visit
Corrales, N. (2016, May 16). PH, China ink pact on building 2 Pasig River bridges. Retrieved June 1, 2021, from https://globalnation.inquirer.net/156784/ph-china-ink-pact-building-2-pasig-river-bridges
Dancel, R. (2016, July 9). Philippines versus China in the South China Sea: Timelines of dispute so far. Retrieved from The Straits Times: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/philippines-vs-china-in-the-south-china-sea-the-dispute-so-far
de Castro, R. (2009). The US-Philippine Alliance: An Evolving Hedge against an Emerging China Challenge. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 31(3), 399-423.
de Castro, R. C. (2014). The Aquino Administration`s Balancing Policy against an Emergent China: Its Domestic and External Dimensions. Pacific Affairs, 87(1), 5-27.
de Castro, R. C. (2016). The Early Duterte Presidency in the Philippines. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 3(35), 139-159.
DFA-65th UNGA Session opens, President Aquino to address general assembly. (2010, September 16). Retrieved from Official Gazette of the Republic of the Philippines: https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2010/09/16/dfa-65th-unga-session-opens-president-aquino-to-address-general-assembly/
Dittmer, L. (1981). The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis. World Politics , 33, 485-515.
Downing, L. (2014, April 29). Obama says U.S. commitment to defend Philippines `ironclad`. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-obama-idUSBREA3S02T20140429
Durani, S. (2018, August 24). The Role of Public Opinion in Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 2021, from Center for Strategic Analysis and Research - CESRAN: https://cesran.org/the-role-of-public-opinion-in-foreign-policy.html
Gangi, Y., & Ahmed, M. (2017, April). The Impact of International Relations on Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment: A Case Study of Sudan. Journal of Applied Economics and Business, 5(1), 46-66.
Gita, R. A. (2018, April 10). Duterte seeks partnerships between homegrown, foreign firms. Retrieved June 2, 2021, from https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/427674
Gita, R. A. (2019, April 26). Duterte`s China visit yields $12B in business deals. Retrieved June 4, 2021, from https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1802981
Goldsmith, B., Horiuchi, Y., & Matush, K. (2021, June 7). Does Public Diplomacy Sway Foreign Public Opinion? Identifying the Effect of High-Level Visits. American Political Science Review, 1-16.
Heydarian, R. (2017). Evolving Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle: International and Domestic Drivers: Philippines-U.S.-China Strategic Triangle. Asian Politics & Policy, 9(4), 564-582.
Jennings, R. (2019, June 19). China, Philippines to Stay Friends despite Boat Collision in Disputed Sea. Retrieved from VOA News: https://www.voanews.com/east-asia/china-philippines-stay-friends-despite-boat-collision-disputed-sea
Kleinberg, K., & Fordham, B. (2010, October). Trade and Foreign Policy Attitudes. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 54(5), 687-714.
Kuik, C. C. (2016). How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN states’ alignment behavior towards China. Journal of Contemporary China , 100, 1-15.
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202101649en_US