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題名 評估鄰里交通改善計畫對道路交通安全的影響
Effects of the Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program on Traffic Safety作者 黃耀正
Huang, Frank Yao貢獻者 黃柏鈞
Huang, Po-Chun
黃耀正
Frank Yao Huang關鍵詞 鄰里交通改善計畫
巷弄安全
卜瓦松迴歸
差異中的差異法
Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program
Alleys’ safety
Poisson regression
Difference-in-differences日期 2022 上傳時間 1-Mar-2022 17:53:25 (UTC+8) 摘要 為了減少道路交通事故或是其造成的損傷，道路交通號誌常被用來作為提醒用路人多加注意道路狀況。本文分析於台北市實施的「鄰里交通改善計畫」對道路交通安全的影響，該計畫於街道巷弄大量的規畫標線型人行道、調整禁停紅黃線、畫設限速停慢標字等。本文以卜瓦松差異中的差異法估計政策效果，該模型允許不同道路或不同年間車禍數與車禍受傷人數的異質性。實證結果發現政策雖無明顯降低白天的車禍數卻顯著的降低白天的車禍受傷人數約6%，夜晚的車禍數及受傷人數些微的增加，但統計上並不顯著異於零。此結果表明「鄰里交通改善計畫」所設置的標線與標字用來提醒用路人路況的目的並沒有反映在減少車禍發生的機率，而是反映在降低車禍的嚴重程度。不僅如此，白天與晚上相異的結果顯示政策造成的效果是起因於白天光線充足，使駕駛人能夠清楚的辨認道路上的施作內容，進而提高用路人的注意力。反之，晚上的視線不佳造成政策施作的改善內容效果甚微，因此本文建議應於的街道巷弄間提供充足的光源讓用路人於晚上能明確的辨認道路上的標線與標字。
To reduce the number of road traffic accidents (RTA) or injuries, traffic signs or road markings are usually used to remind drivers taking more attention on road conditions. This paper analyze the impact of Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program (NTEIP) in Taipei City on road traffic safety. Under this program, marked sidewalks, prohibited parking lines and speed limit slogans etc. are implemented on alleys. I apply the Poisson difference-in-differences that allows heterogeneity between roads and between years in RTAs and injuries. The estimation results suggest the number of RTAs during daytime decline insignificantly, injuries causing by RTAs significantly reduce by about 6%. Both RTAs and injuries increase negligibly at night. These results indicates that the purpose of NTEIP which alert drivers drive more carefully on alleys reflects on lowering RTAs’ severity but not reducing RTAs’ occurrence. Furthermore, the difference results between daytime and night show that the policy effect is resulting from sufficient sunlight, helping motorists clearly identify the traffic sign, and improve their concentration on road conditions afterwards. On the contrary, poor sight at night causing policy has such minimal effects. Therefore, this research suggest the program should provide enough light at night, helping drivers more clearly recognize the markings on alleys.參考文獻 黃苡瑄 (2017)，巷弄交通安全綜合評估─以「鄰里交通改善計畫」為例，國立台灣大學土木工程學系研究所碩士論文。黃皇嘉 (2020)，標線型人行道與行車速度之研究分析，國立中央大學土木工程學系研究所碩士論文。Ang, A., Christensen, P., Vieira, R. (2020), “Should congested cities reduce their speed limits? Evidence from São Paulo, Brazil,” Journal of Public Economics, 184, 104155.Arvin, R., Khademi, M., and Razi-Ardakani, H. (2017), “Study on mobile phone use while driving in a sample of Iranian drivers,” International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 24(2), 256–262.Ashenfelter, O., Greenstone, M. (2004), “Using mandated speed limits to measure the value of a statistical life,” Journal of political Economy, 112 (S1), S226–S267.Beck, T., Levine, R. and Levkov, A. (2010), “Big bad banks? The winners and losers from bank deregulation in the United States,” The Journal of Finance, 65(5), 1637-1667.Beijer, D., Smiley, A., and Eizenman, M. (2004), “Observed driver glance behavior at roadside advertising signs,” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1899(1), 96–103.Borusyak, K. and Jaravel, X. (2017), “Revisiting event study designs, with an application to the estimation of the marginal propensity to consume,” Working Paper.Bullough, J. (2017), “Factors affecting sign visibility, conspicuity, and legibility,” Interdisciplinary Journal of Signage and Wayfinding, 1(2), 2–25.Ezeibe, C., Ilo, C., Oguonu, C., Ali, A., Abada, I., Ezeibe, E., Oguonu, C., Abada, F., Izueke, E., and Agbo, H. (2019), ‘‘The impact of traffic sign deficit on road traffic accidents in Nigeria,’’ International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 26(1), 3–11.Hess, S., and Polak, J. (2003), “Effects of speed limit enforcement cameras on accident rates,” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1830(1), 25–33.Hijar, M., Vasquez-Vela, E., and Arreola-Rissa, C. (2003), “Pedestrian traffic injuries in Mexico: A country update,” Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 10, 37–43.Hussein, H. A. (2013), “The role of street traffic signs in reducing road accidents,” First International Symposium on Urban Development: Koya as a Case Study, 303–311.Lauer, A. R., and McMonagle, J. C. (1955), “Do road signs affect accidents,” Traffic Quarterly, 9(3), 322–329.Li, X., Oviedo-Trespalacios, O., Rakotonirainy, A., and Yan, X. (2019), “Collision risk management of cognitively distracted drivers in a car-following situation,” Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 60, 288–298.Madleňák, R., Hoštáková, D., Madleňáková, L., Drozdziel, P. and Török, A. (2018), “The analysis of the traffic signs visibility during night driving,” Advances in Science and Technology Research Journal, 12(2), 71–76.Malyshkina, N. V., and Mannering, F. L. (2008), “Analysis of the effect of speed limit increases on accident-injury severities,” Transportation Research Record, 2083, 122–127.Molino, J. A., Wachtel, J., Farbry, J. E., Hermosillo, M. B., and Granda, T. M. (2009), “The effects of commercial electronic variable message signs (CEVMS) on driver attention and distraction : an update (Rep No. FHWA-HRT-09-018),” Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.Rumar, K. and Ost, A. (1974), “The night driving legibility effects of dirt on road signs (Rep No. 164),” Uppsala, Sweden: Uppsala University, Department of Psychology.Van Benthem, A. (2015), “What is the optimal speed limit on freeways?” Journal of Public Economics, 124, 44–62.Van Houten, R. (1988), “The effects of advance stop lines and sign prompts on pedestrian safety in crosswalks on a multi-lane highway,” Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 21(3), 245–251.Van Houten, R., Rolidier, A., Nau, P. A., Friedman, R., Becker, M., Chalodovsky, I., and Scherer, M. (1985), “Large-scale reductions in speeding and accidents in Canada and Israel: A behavioral ecological perspective,” Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 18(1), 87–93.Wilmot, C. G., and Khanal, M. (1999), “Effect of speed limits on speed and safety: A review,” Transport Reviews, 19(4), 315–329.Wooldridge, J., (2010), “Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data,” Cambridge, MIT Press.Zwahlen, H. T. and Schnell, T. (1999), “Legibility of traffic sign text and symbols,” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1692(1), 142–151.Zwahlen, H. T., Hu, X., Sunkara, M. and Duffus, L. M. (1991), “Recognition of traffic sign symbols in the field during daytime and nighttime,” Proceedings of Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 35(15), 1058–1062. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
108258011資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108258011 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃柏鈞 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Po-Chun en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃耀正 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Frank Yao Huang en_US dc.creator (作者) 黃耀正 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Huang, Frank Yao en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Mar-2022 17:53:25 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Mar-2022 17:53:25 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Mar-2022 17:53:25 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108258011 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/139266 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108258011 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 為了減少道路交通事故或是其造成的損傷，道路交通號誌常被用來作為提醒用路人多加注意道路狀況。本文分析於台北市實施的「鄰里交通改善計畫」對道路交通安全的影響，該計畫於街道巷弄大量的規畫標線型人行道、調整禁停紅黃線、畫設限速停慢標字等。本文以卜瓦松差異中的差異法估計政策效果，該模型允許不同道路或不同年間車禍數與車禍受傷人數的異質性。實證結果發現政策雖無明顯降低白天的車禍數卻顯著的降低白天的車禍受傷人數約6%，夜晚的車禍數及受傷人數些微的增加，但統計上並不顯著異於零。此結果表明「鄰里交通改善計畫」所設置的標線與標字用來提醒用路人路況的目的並沒有反映在減少車禍發生的機率，而是反映在降低車禍的嚴重程度。不僅如此，白天與晚上相異的結果顯示政策造成的效果是起因於白天光線充足，使駕駛人能夠清楚的辨認道路上的施作內容，進而提高用路人的注意力。反之，晚上的視線不佳造成政策施作的改善內容效果甚微，因此本文建議應於的街道巷弄間提供充足的光源讓用路人於晚上能明確的辨認道路上的標線與標字。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) To reduce the number of road traffic accidents (RTA) or injuries, traffic signs or road markings are usually used to remind drivers taking more attention on road conditions. This paper analyze the impact of Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program (NTEIP) in Taipei City on road traffic safety. Under this program, marked sidewalks, prohibited parking lines and speed limit slogans etc. are implemented on alleys. I apply the Poisson difference-in-differences that allows heterogeneity between roads and between years in RTAs and injuries. The estimation results suggest the number of RTAs during daytime decline insignificantly, injuries causing by RTAs significantly reduce by about 6%. Both RTAs and injuries increase negligibly at night. These results indicates that the purpose of NTEIP which alert drivers drive more carefully on alleys reflects on lowering RTAs’ severity but not reducing RTAs’ occurrence. Furthermore, the difference results between daytime and night show that the policy effect is resulting from sufficient sunlight, helping motorists clearly identify the traffic sign, and improve their concentration on road conditions afterwards. On the contrary, poor sight at night causing policy has such minimal effects. Therefore, this research suggest the program should provide enough light at night, helping drivers more clearly recognize the markings on alleys. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 目次第一章 緒論 1第二章 文獻回顧 6第三章 政策背景與制度 9第四章 資料 11第一節 鄰里交通改善計畫 11第二節 巷弄道路 12第三節 車禍資料 13第四節 控制變數 14第五章 模型 15第一節 文獻中的估計方法 15第二節 卜瓦松差異中的差異法 16第三節 動態模型 19第四節 改善內容的個別效果 19第六章 實證結果 21第一節 主要結果 21第二節 晝夜車禍數與車禍受傷人數 22第三節 政策的動態效果 23第四節 改善內容的個別效果 24第五節 穩健性檢驗 26第六節 討論與建議 26第七章 結論 28參考文獻 29附錄 32附錄一 道路分類說明與範例 32附錄二 政策的動態效果─去除起始實驗組 32附錄三 改善內容個別效果─去除起始實驗組 32 表次表1：鄰里交通改善計畫規劃道路分類 34表2：臺北市道路命名原則 34表3：基本統計量 34表4：主要結果 35表5：白天車禍數與受傷人數 36表6：晚上車禍數與受傷人數 37表7：政策的動態效果 38表8：改善內容個別效果 39表9：穩健性檢驗─A1/A2 車禍數 40表A.1：道路分類範例─以大同區重慶里部分道路為例 41表A.2：政策的動態效果─去除起始實驗組 42表A.3：個別改善內容效果─去除起始實驗組 43 圖次圖1：鄰里交通改善計畫施作 44 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1325993 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108258011 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 鄰里交通改善計畫 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 巷弄安全 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 卜瓦松迴歸 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中的差異法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Alleys’ safety en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Poisson regression en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference-in-differences en_US dc.title (題名) 評估鄰里交通改善計畫對道路交通安全的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Effects of the Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program on Traffic Safety en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃苡瑄 (2017)，巷弄交通安全綜合評估─以「鄰里交通改善計畫」為例，國立台灣大學土木工程學系研究所碩士論文。黃皇嘉 (2020)，標線型人行道與行車速度之研究分析，國立中央大學土木工程學系研究所碩士論文。Ang, A., Christensen, P., Vieira, R. (2020), “Should congested cities reduce their speed limits? Evidence from São Paulo, Brazil,” Journal of Public Economics, 184, 104155.Arvin, R., Khademi, M., and Razi-Ardakani, H. (2017), “Study on mobile phone use while driving in a sample of Iranian drivers,” International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 24(2), 256–262.Ashenfelter, O., Greenstone, M. (2004), “Using mandated speed limits to measure the value of a statistical life,” Journal of political Economy, 112 (S1), S226–S267.Beck, T., Levine, R. and Levkov, A. (2010), “Big bad banks? The winners and losers from bank deregulation in the United States,” The Journal of Finance, 65(5), 1637-1667.Beijer, D., Smiley, A., and Eizenman, M. (2004), “Observed driver glance behavior at roadside advertising signs,” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1899(1), 96–103.Borusyak, K. and Jaravel, X. (2017), “Revisiting event study designs, with an application to the estimation of the marginal propensity to consume,” Working Paper.Bullough, J. (2017), “Factors affecting sign visibility, conspicuity, and legibility,” Interdisciplinary Journal of Signage and Wayfinding, 1(2), 2–25.Ezeibe, C., Ilo, C., Oguonu, C., Ali, A., Abada, I., Ezeibe, E., Oguonu, C., Abada, F., Izueke, E., and Agbo, H. (2019), ‘‘The impact of traffic sign deficit on road traffic accidents in Nigeria,’’ International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 26(1), 3–11.Hess, S., and Polak, J. (2003), “Effects of speed limit enforcement cameras on accident rates,” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1830(1), 25–33.Hijar, M., Vasquez-Vela, E., and Arreola-Rissa, C. (2003), “Pedestrian traffic injuries in Mexico: A country update,” Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 10, 37–43.Hussein, H. A. (2013), “The role of street traffic signs in reducing road accidents,” First International Symposium on Urban Development: Koya as a Case Study, 303–311.Lauer, A. R., and McMonagle, J. C. (1955), “Do road signs affect accidents,” Traffic Quarterly, 9(3), 322–329.Li, X., Oviedo-Trespalacios, O., Rakotonirainy, A., and Yan, X. (2019), “Collision risk management of cognitively distracted drivers in a car-following situation,” Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 60, 288–298.Madleňák, R., Hoštáková, D., Madleňáková, L., Drozdziel, P. and Török, A. (2018), “The analysis of the traffic signs visibility during night driving,” Advances in Science and Technology Research Journal, 12(2), 71–76.Malyshkina, N. V., and Mannering, F. L. (2008), “Analysis of the effect of speed limit increases on accident-injury severities,” Transportation Research Record, 2083, 122–127.Molino, J. A., Wachtel, J., Farbry, J. E., Hermosillo, M. B., and Granda, T. M. (2009), “The effects of commercial electronic variable message signs (CEVMS) on driver attention and distraction : an update (Rep No. FHWA-HRT-09-018),” Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.Rumar, K. and Ost, A. (1974), “The night driving legibility effects of dirt on road signs (Rep No. 164),” Uppsala, Sweden: Uppsala University, Department of Psychology.Van Benthem, A. (2015), “What is the optimal speed limit on freeways?” Journal of Public Economics, 124, 44–62.Van Houten, R. (1988), “The effects of advance stop lines and sign prompts on pedestrian safety in crosswalks on a multi-lane highway,” Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 21(3), 245–251.Van Houten, R., Rolidier, A., Nau, P. A., Friedman, R., Becker, M., Chalodovsky, I., and Scherer, M. (1985), “Large-scale reductions in speeding and accidents in Canada and Israel: A behavioral ecological perspective,” Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis, 18(1), 87–93.Wilmot, C. G., and Khanal, M. (1999), “Effect of speed limits on speed and safety: A review,” Transport Reviews, 19(4), 315–329.Wooldridge, J., (2010), “Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data,” Cambridge, MIT Press.Zwahlen, H. T. and Schnell, T. (1999), “Legibility of traffic sign text and symbols,” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1692(1), 142–151.Zwahlen, H. T., Hu, X., Sunkara, M. and Duffus, L. M. (1991), “Recognition of traffic sign symbols in the field during daytime and nighttime,” Proceedings of Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 35(15), 1058–1062. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202200261 en_US
