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題名 The FOMC’s New Individual Economic Projections and Macroeconomic Theories 作者 荒井夏來
Natsuki Arai貢獻者 國貿系 關鍵詞 FOMC; Individual Economic Projections; Okun’s law; Phillips Curve; Taylor rule 日期 2020-10 上傳時間 2022-04-12 摘要 This paper examines whether the individual economic projections made by the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policymakers are consistent with macroeconomic theories: Okun’s law, the Phillips curve, and the Taylor rule. By analyzing the FOMC’s individual economic projections between 2007 and 2014, I find that they are consistent with Okun’s law, revealing a significantly negative relationship between unemployment and output growth projections. On the other hand, the relationship between inflation and unemployment projections associated with the Phillips curve is much weaker and more dispersed. The results on the FOMC’s reaction function, the Taylor rule, are mixed: The response of the projections of the federal funds rate against the inflation gap projections—the deviation of inflation projections from the target—is significantly positive, whereas the response against the corresponding output gap projections varies depending on the specification. 關聯 CEF 2021, Keio University 資料類型 conference dc.contributor 國貿系 - dc.creator (作者) 荒井夏來 - dc.creator (作者) Natsuki Arai - dc.date (日期) 2020-10 - dc.date.accessioned 2022-04-12 - dc.date.available 2022-04-12 - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2022-04-12 - dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/139836 - dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper examines whether the individual economic projections made by the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policymakers are consistent with macroeconomic theories: Okun’s law, the Phillips curve, and the Taylor rule. By analyzing the FOMC’s individual economic projections between 2007 and 2014, I find that they are consistent with Okun’s law, revealing a significantly negative relationship between unemployment and output growth projections. On the other hand, the relationship between inflation and unemployment projections associated with the Phillips curve is much weaker and more dispersed. The results on the FOMC’s reaction function, the Taylor rule, are mixed: The response of the projections of the federal funds rate against the inflation gap projections—the deviation of inflation projections from the target—is significantly positive, whereas the response against the corresponding output gap projections varies depending on the specification. - dc.format.extent 822623 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.relation (關聯) CEF 2021, Keio University - dc.subject (關鍵詞) FOMC; Individual Economic Projections; Okun’s law; Phillips Curve; Taylor rule - dc.title (題名) The FOMC’s New Individual Economic Projections and Macroeconomic Theories - dc.type (資料類型) conference -
