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題名 特殊目的收購公司的財務預測對股價表現之影響
The Impact of SPAC`s Financial Forecasts on Stock Performance作者 唐美瑜
Tang, Mei-Yu貢獻者 張元晨
Chang, Yuan-Chen
唐美瑜
Tang, Mei-Yu關鍵詞 特殊目的收購公司
財務預測
預測誤差
SPACs
Forward-Looking Statements
Forecast Bias日期 2022 上傳時間 1-Aug-2022 17:18:35 (UTC+8) 摘要 公司利用特殊目的收購公司(SPAC)在美國上市的情形近年來大幅增加，監管機構擔心SPACs的成長是源於監管法規的漏洞，擔憂其提供過於樂觀的財務預測將會誤導投資者。SPACs受到《私人證券訴訟改革法案》(PSLRA)的安全港條款保護，免除SPACs前瞻性陳述(Forward-Looking Statements)預測不準確之法律責任，前瞻性陳述中最受矚目的是可以提供財務預測增加估值，因此本文主要研究2016年至2021年合併成功的SPACs，提供財務預測對短期及長期股價表現的影響。實證結果顯示SPACs提供樂觀的財務預測會吸引更多的投資者，而這些公司的長期股價表現普遍不佳，也印證監管機構的擔憂。此外，本文也探討影響預測準確度之因素，實證結果顯示，當SPACs為連續發起人時，對預測準確度沒有顯著的影響，而越樂觀的財務預測，其預測結果越不準確。
The companies’ use of Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) to go public in the USA has significantly increased recently. Regulators express concern that the growth of SPACs, results from the regulatory loopholes and that offering overly optimistic financial forecasts, would mislead investors. SPACs are protected by the Safe Harbor Provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (PSLRA), which is exempted from the legal liability of SPAC’s forward-looking statements (FLS). The most noticeable features in FLS is that firms can provide financial forecasts to increase valuations. Therefore, this thesis is mainly focus on SPACs mergers from 2016 to 2021, exploring SPACs’ financial forecasts on long-term and short-term stock performance. The empirical results show that SPACs’ optimistic forecasts attract more investors, and the long-term stock performance of these companies is poor, which confirms the concerns of regulators. In addition, I also examines factors that affect the bias of SPAC forecasts. The empirical results show that when SPACs are serial sponsors, they have a insignificant impact on the bias of predictions. I also find that the more the optimistic SPAC forecasts, the less accurate the predictions will be.參考文獻 Blankespoor, E., Hendricks, B. E., Miller, G. S., & Stockbridge D. R. (2022). A Hard Look at SPAC Projections, Management Science, Page 1-12.Bai, J., Ma, A., & Zheng, M. (2021). Segmented Going-Public Markets and the Demand for SPACs, Available at SSRN 3746490.Chapman, K., Frankel, R. M., & Martin, X. (2021). SPACs and Forward-Looking Disclosure: Hype or Information, Available at SSRN 3920714.Chen, G., Firth, M., & Krishnan, G. V. (2001). Earnings forecast errors in IPO prospectuses and their associations with initial stock returns, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Vol.11, Issue 2, Page 225-240.Coates, J. (2021). SPACs, IPOs, and Liability Risk Under the Securities Laws, Public Statement, Available at: https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/spacs-ipos-liability-risk-under-securities-laws.Dambra, M., Even-Tov, O., & George, K. (2021). Should SPAC Forecasts be Sacked, Available at SSRN 3933037.Damodaran, A. (2021). Disrupting the Disruptors? The ‘Going Public Process` in Transition, working Paper.Gahng, M., Ritter, J. R., & Zhang, D. (2021). SPACs, working paper, Available at SSRN 3775847.Gensler, G. (2021). Remarks Before the Healthy Markets Association Conference, Public Speech, Available at: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-healthy-markets-association-conference-120921.Hale, L. M. (2006). SPAC: A Financing Tool with Something for Everyone, Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance, Vol.18, Pages 67-74.Johnson, M. F., Kasznik ,R., & Nelson, K. K. (2000). Shareholder Wealth Effects of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Available at SSRN 229389.Kolb, J., Tykvová, T. (2016). Going public via special purpose acquisition companies: Frogs do not turn into princes, Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol.40, Pages 80-96.Lakicevic, M., Vulanovic, M. (2013). A Story on SPACs, Managerial Finance, Vol.39, Issue 4, Pages 384-403.Lee, A. H. (2022). Statement on the Proposal to Enhance Investor Protections in SPACs, Public Speech, Available at: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/lee-statement-spac-proposal-033022.Mnif, A. (2010). Corporate Governance and Management Earnings Forecast Quality: Evidence From French IPOs, Available at halshs-00459171. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
109357015資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109357015 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 張元晨 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chang, Yuan-Chen en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 唐美瑜 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tang, Mei-Yu en_US dc.creator (作者) 唐美瑜 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Tang, Mei-Yu en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Aug-2022 17:18:35 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Aug-2022 17:18:35 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Aug-2022 17:18:35 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109357015 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141020 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109357015 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 公司利用特殊目的收購公司(SPAC)在美國上市的情形近年來大幅增加，監管機構擔心SPACs的成長是源於監管法規的漏洞，擔憂其提供過於樂觀的財務預測將會誤導投資者。SPACs受到《私人證券訴訟改革法案》(PSLRA)的安全港條款保護，免除SPACs前瞻性陳述(Forward-Looking Statements)預測不準確之法律責任，前瞻性陳述中最受矚目的是可以提供財務預測增加估值，因此本文主要研究2016年至2021年合併成功的SPACs，提供財務預測對短期及長期股價表現的影響。實證結果顯示SPACs提供樂觀的財務預測會吸引更多的投資者，而這些公司的長期股價表現普遍不佳，也印證監管機構的擔憂。此外，本文也探討影響預測準確度之因素，實證結果顯示，當SPACs為連續發起人時，對預測準確度沒有顯著的影響，而越樂觀的財務預測，其預測結果越不準確。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The companies’ use of Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) to go public in the USA has significantly increased recently. Regulators express concern that the growth of SPACs, results from the regulatory loopholes and that offering overly optimistic financial forecasts, would mislead investors. SPACs are protected by the Safe Harbor Provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (PSLRA), which is exempted from the legal liability of SPAC’s forward-looking statements (FLS). The most noticeable features in FLS is that firms can provide financial forecasts to increase valuations. Therefore, this thesis is mainly focus on SPACs mergers from 2016 to 2021, exploring SPACs’ financial forecasts on long-term and short-term stock performance. The empirical results show that SPACs’ optimistic forecasts attract more investors, and the long-term stock performance of these companies is poor, which confirms the concerns of regulators. In addition, I also examines factors that affect the bias of SPAC forecasts. The empirical results show that when SPACs are serial sponsors, they have a insignificant impact on the bias of predictions. I also find that the more the optimistic SPAC forecasts, the less accurate the predictions will be. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 6第一節 研究動機與目的 6第二節 研究架構 9第二章 文獻探討 10第一節 關於SPAC 10第二節 SPAC的好處 13第三節 安全港條款 14第四節 管理團隊的影響 16第五節 承銷商的影響 17第六節 合併後的報酬率 18第七節 公司規模的影響 19第八節 投資者結構 20第三章 研究方法 21第一節 樣本及資料來源 21第二節 變數定義及資料來源 24第三節 研究假說 28第四節 模型設計 30第四章 實證結果 32第一節 樣本敘述 32第二節 影響投資人簡報發佈日報酬率之因素 34第三節 影響財務預測準確度之因素 37第四節 影響合併後長期表現之因素 41第五章 結論 45第一節 研究結論 45第二節 研究限制與未來研究建議 47參考文獻 49附錄 51 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2271289 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109357015 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 特殊目的收購公司 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財務預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測誤差 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) SPACs en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forward-Looking Statements en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forecast Bias en_US dc.title (題名) 特殊目的收購公司的財務預測對股價表現之影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of SPAC`s Financial Forecasts on Stock Performance en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Blankespoor, E., Hendricks, B. E., Miller, G. S., & Stockbridge D. R. (2022). A Hard Look at SPAC Projections, Management Science, Page 1-12.Bai, J., Ma, A., & Zheng, M. (2021). Segmented Going-Public Markets and the Demand for SPACs, Available at SSRN 3746490.Chapman, K., Frankel, R. M., & Martin, X. (2021). SPACs and Forward-Looking Disclosure: Hype or Information, Available at SSRN 3920714.Chen, G., Firth, M., & Krishnan, G. V. (2001). Earnings forecast errors in IPO prospectuses and their associations with initial stock returns, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Vol.11, Issue 2, Page 225-240.Coates, J. (2021). SPACs, IPOs, and Liability Risk Under the Securities Laws, Public Statement, Available at: https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/spacs-ipos-liability-risk-under-securities-laws.Dambra, M., Even-Tov, O., & George, K. (2021). Should SPAC Forecasts be Sacked, Available at SSRN 3933037.Damodaran, A. (2021). Disrupting the Disruptors? The ‘Going Public Process` in Transition, working Paper.Gahng, M., Ritter, J. R., & Zhang, D. (2021). SPACs, working paper, Available at SSRN 3775847.Gensler, G. (2021). Remarks Before the Healthy Markets Association Conference, Public Speech, Available at: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-healthy-markets-association-conference-120921.Hale, L. M. (2006). SPAC: A Financing Tool with Something for Everyone, Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance, Vol.18, Pages 67-74.Johnson, M. F., Kasznik ,R., & Nelson, K. K. (2000). Shareholder Wealth Effects of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Available at SSRN 229389.Kolb, J., Tykvová, T. (2016). Going public via special purpose acquisition companies: Frogs do not turn into princes, Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol.40, Pages 80-96.Lakicevic, M., Vulanovic, M. (2013). A Story on SPACs, Managerial Finance, Vol.39, Issue 4, Pages 384-403.Lee, A. H. (2022). Statement on the Proposal to Enhance Investor Protections in SPACs, Public Speech, Available at: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/lee-statement-spac-proposal-033022.Mnif, A. (2010). Corporate Governance and Management Earnings Forecast Quality: Evidence From French IPOs, Available at halshs-00459171. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202200776 en_US
