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題名 生育補助對生育率的影響-以臺灣為例
The Impact of Maternity Pension on Fertility Rate in Taiwan作者 蔡欣潔
Tsai, Hsin-Chieh貢獻者 黃柏鈞
Huang, Po-Chun
蔡欣潔
Tsai, Hsin-Chieh關鍵詞 總生育率
生育津貼
生育補助
差異中差異法
total fertility rate
maternity pension
baby bonus
difference-in-differences日期 2022 上傳時間 1-Aug-2022 18:26:44 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究主要探討生育津貼政策對於生育率的影響,本文採用1999年至2019年間臺灣20個縣市的樣本資料,利用差異中的差異估計法(DID)並控制女性教育年數、男性教育年數和家戶可支配所得,分析縣市發放生育津貼前後對於生育率的影響。研究結果顯示,生育津貼的發放對提升生育率是有正向顯著效果的,平均而言每增加發放一萬元的津貼,生育率會提高約0.1 人。另一方面,生育津貼的彈性是0.055,代表每多發放10%的生育津貼,生育率會提0.55%。
This study analyzes the impact of maternity pension on total fertility rate, using data from 20 counties and cities in Taiwan from 1999 to 2019. The paper will use difference-in-differences method and control years of schooling for female, years of schooling for male and household disposable income to examine the relationship between maternity pension and total fertility rate. The empirical results show that the amount of maternity pension has a significant positive impact on total fertility rate. On average, for each additional NT$10,000 in allowances, the total fertility rate will increase by about 0.1 births per woman. On the other hand, the elasticity of maternity pension is 0.055, which means that for every 10% more maternity pension, the total fertility rate will increase by 0.55%.參考文獻 林佳螢(2016),《我國生育津貼成效之研究》,淡江大學公共行政學系公共政策碩士班碩士論文。陳彥仁(2006),《台灣生育率下降因素之實證探討》,國立成功大學政治經濟學研究所碩士論文。陳玉華、陳信木(2011),「臺灣民眾初婚年齡的變動趨勢:出生世代、教育程度與省籍背景之間的差異」,《社會變遷調查專書》,中央研究院。林妏蓁、陳國樑、黃勢璋(2013),「生育津貼對我國生育率的影響:以1998-2010年為例」,《社會政策與社會工作學刊》,17(2):259-297。尤智儀、李玉春(2016),「縣市生育津貼政策對夫妻生育意願之影響」,《人口學刊》,(52):43-79。彭建文、蔡怡純(2012),「住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響─追蹤資料供整合分析應用」,《人口學刊》,(44):57-86。余清祥(2005),《臺灣地區各鄉鎮市區生育率的空間關係研究》,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究成果報告。Aoki, R. and Y. Konishi (2008). On the Persistence of Low Birthrate in Japan. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.Becker, G. S., and Barro, R. J. (1988). A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(1), 1-25.Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., and Finlay, J. E. (2009). Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend. Journal of Economic Growth, 14(2), 79-101.Drago, R., Sawyer, K., Shreffler, K. M., Warren, D., and Wooden, M. (2011). Did Australia′s Baby Bonus Increase Fertility Intentions and Births?. Population Research and Policy Review, 30(3), 381-397.Easterlin, R. A., and Crimmins, E. M. (1985). The Fertility Revolution: A Supply-Demand Analysis. University of Chicago Press.Goodman-Bacon, A. (2021). Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing. Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), 254-277.Lain, S. J., Ford, J. B., Raynes‐Greenow, C. H., Hadfield, R. M., Simpson, J. M., Morris, J. M., and Roberts, C. L. (2009). The Impact of the Baby Bonus Payment in New South Wales:Who Is Having “One for the Country”?. Medical Journal of Australia, 190(5), 238-241.McNown, R., and Rajbhandary, S. (2003). Time Series Analysis of Fertility and Female Labor Market Behavior. Journal of Population Economics, 16(3), 501-523.Milligan, K. (2002). Quebec`s Baby Bonus:Can Public Policy Raise Fertility? Backgrounder. C.D. Howe Institute, January. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
109258002資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258002 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃柏鈞 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Po-Chun en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蔡欣潔 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tsai, Hsin-Chieh en_US dc.creator (作者) 蔡欣潔 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Tsai, Hsin-Chieh en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Aug-2022 18:26:44 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Aug-2022 18:26:44 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Aug-2022 18:26:44 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109258002 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141244 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109258002 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究主要探討生育津貼政策對於生育率的影響,本文採用1999年至2019年間臺灣20個縣市的樣本資料,利用差異中的差異估計法(DID)並控制女性教育年數、男性教育年數和家戶可支配所得,分析縣市發放生育津貼前後對於生育率的影響。研究結果顯示,生育津貼的發放對提升生育率是有正向顯著效果的,平均而言每增加發放一萬元的津貼,生育率會提高約0.1 人。另一方面,生育津貼的彈性是0.055,代表每多發放10%的生育津貼,生育率會提0.55%。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study analyzes the impact of maternity pension on total fertility rate, using data from 20 counties and cities in Taiwan from 1999 to 2019. The paper will use difference-in-differences method and control years of schooling for female, years of schooling for male and household disposable income to examine the relationship between maternity pension and total fertility rate. The empirical results show that the amount of maternity pension has a significant positive impact on total fertility rate. On average, for each additional NT$10,000 in allowances, the total fertility rate will increase by about 0.1 births per woman. On the other hand, the elasticity of maternity pension is 0.055, which means that for every 10% more maternity pension, the total fertility rate will increase by 0.55%. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第二章 文獻回顧 5第一節 國外相關實證文獻 5第二節 國內相關實證文獻 7第三章 制度面背景 11第一節 臺灣的人口情勢 11第二節 我國生育政策 12第三節 他國生育政策 14第四章 資料 19第一節 資料來源 19第二節 敘述統計 20第五章 模型與實證結果 22第一節 模型 22第二節 實證結果 24第三節 生育津貼對遷入遷出的影響 25第四節 生育率的動態效果 26第五節 穩健性測驗分析 27第六章 結論 30第一節 研究結果 30第二節 研究限制 31參考文獻 33圖表 35 zh_TW dc.format.extent 956293 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258002 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總生育率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育津貼 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育補助 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中差異法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) total fertility rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) maternity pension en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) baby bonus en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) difference-in-differences en_US dc.title (題名) 生育補助對生育率的影響-以臺灣為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Maternity Pension on Fertility Rate in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 林佳螢(2016),《我國生育津貼成效之研究》,淡江大學公共行政學系公共政策碩士班碩士論文。陳彥仁(2006),《台灣生育率下降因素之實證探討》,國立成功大學政治經濟學研究所碩士論文。陳玉華、陳信木(2011),「臺灣民眾初婚年齡的變動趨勢:出生世代、教育程度與省籍背景之間的差異」,《社會變遷調查專書》,中央研究院。林妏蓁、陳國樑、黃勢璋(2013),「生育津貼對我國生育率的影響:以1998-2010年為例」,《社會政策與社會工作學刊》,17(2):259-297。尤智儀、李玉春(2016),「縣市生育津貼政策對夫妻生育意願之影響」,《人口學刊》,(52):43-79。彭建文、蔡怡純(2012),「住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影響─追蹤資料供整合分析應用」,《人口學刊》,(44):57-86。余清祥(2005),《臺灣地區各鄉鎮市區生育率的空間關係研究》,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究成果報告。Aoki, R. and Y. Konishi (2008). On the Persistence of Low Birthrate in Japan. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.Becker, G. S., and Barro, R. J. (1988). A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(1), 1-25.Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., and Finlay, J. E. (2009). Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend. Journal of Economic Growth, 14(2), 79-101.Drago, R., Sawyer, K., Shreffler, K. M., Warren, D., and Wooden, M. (2011). Did Australia′s Baby Bonus Increase Fertility Intentions and Births?. Population Research and Policy Review, 30(3), 381-397.Easterlin, R. A., and Crimmins, E. M. (1985). The Fertility Revolution: A Supply-Demand Analysis. University of Chicago Press.Goodman-Bacon, A. (2021). Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing. Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), 254-277.Lain, S. J., Ford, J. B., Raynes‐Greenow, C. H., Hadfield, R. M., Simpson, J. M., Morris, J. M., and Roberts, C. L. (2009). The Impact of the Baby Bonus Payment in New South Wales:Who Is Having “One for the Country”?. Medical Journal of Australia, 190(5), 238-241.McNown, R., and Rajbhandary, S. (2003). Time Series Analysis of Fertility and Female Labor Market Behavior. Journal of Population Economics, 16(3), 501-523.Milligan, K. (2002). Quebec`s Baby Bonus:Can Public Policy Raise Fertility? Backgrounder. C.D. Howe Institute, January. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202200775 en_US