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題名 何時「一帶一路」的參與國會落入債務陷阱? 六個開發中國家的個案研究
When Do BRI Participants Fall into Debt Traps? Case Studies of Six Developing Countries作者 何燁
Chojecki, Patryk貢獻者 薛健吾
Hsueh, Chien-Wu (Alex)
何燁
Chojecki, Patryk關鍵詞 一帶一路
中國
開發中國家
債務陷阱
Belt and Road Initiative
Debt-Trap Diplomacy
China
Developing Countries日期 2022 上傳時間 1-Aug-2022 18:54:32 (UTC+8) 摘要 為何某些「一帶一路」參與者最終會陷入債務陷阱，然而其他卻不會呢？多年來，關於中國債務陷阱的話題出現了許多討論。目前為止，究竟何種先決條件會決定一帶一路特定參與國的情況，學界並不存在共識。本文透過提出以下研究問題為「一帶一路」的討論做出貢獻——在政治與經濟條件相似，且一帶一路投資佔其GDP比重接近的情況下，為何有些國家會陷入債務陷阱，而有些國家卻不會?作者選取了六個發展中國家，將其分為兩組來回答該問題。第一組由三個國家組成，中國債務占這些國家 GDP 的比例很高，包含了寮國、吉布地以及安哥拉。第二組則是債務問題較小的國家，包含柬埔寨、斯里蘭卡和茅利塔尼亞。根據本研究的經濟與政治指標，政治自由度和政府效率明顯較低的一帶一路參與國更容易陷入中國債務陷阱。此外，作者確定了兩個具體案例的先決條件，寮國和吉布地最終陷入債務陷阱，主要因為大型基礎設施項目最終證明是無利可圖的，並加劇了隱藏債務的數量，而於安哥拉的例子中，其落入債務陷阱的主要決定因素是石油換基礎設施貸款計劃。本研究最後為政策制定者提供了一些研究意義，並為未來的研究者提供研究建議。
Why do certain BRI participants end up in debt traps while others do not? Throughout the years, many discussions emerged on the topic of Chinese debt traps. So far, there is no consensus among the scholarly community on what precondition may determine the situation of particular BRI members. This thesis contributes to the BRI discourse by proposing the following research question – Among the picked BRI-participating countries with similar political and economic conditions and close degrees of BRI investments over their GDP, why do some countries fall into debt traps, while others do not? The author selected six developing countries and divided them into two groups to answer this question. The first consisted of three nations that reached high debt exposure to China as a percentage of their GDP. Those countries are Laos, Djibouti, and Angola. In the second group, the author placed countries with minor debt distress issues: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Mauritania. The analysis of economic and political measurements shows a critical precondition that BRI members with significantly lower levels of political freedom and government efficiency are more likely to fall into Chinese debt traps. Furthermore, the author determined two case-specific prerequisites. In the examples of Laos and Djibouti, the nations ended up in a debt trap primarily due to large infrastructural projects that turned out to be not profitable and exacerbated the amount of hidden debt. In the instance of Angola, the main determinant was the oil-for-infrastructure loan scheme. The thesis concludes with implications for policymakers and suggestions for future research.參考文獻 Abeysinghe, T., & Lu, D. (2003). China as an economic powerhouse: Implications on its neighbors. China Economic Review, 14(2), 164–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1043- 951X(03)00017-8Abi-Habib, M. (2018). How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port. 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國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
109862016資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109862016 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 薛健吾 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hsueh, Chien-Wu (Alex) en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 何燁 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chojecki, Patryk en_US dc.creator (作者) 何燁 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chojecki, Patryk en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Aug-2022 18:54:32 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Aug-2022 18:54:32 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Aug-2022 18:54:32 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109862016 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141370 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109862016 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 為何某些「一帶一路」參與者最終會陷入債務陷阱，然而其他卻不會呢？多年來，關於中國債務陷阱的話題出現了許多討論。目前為止，究竟何種先決條件會決定一帶一路特定參與國的情況，學界並不存在共識。本文透過提出以下研究問題為「一帶一路」的討論做出貢獻——在政治與經濟條件相似，且一帶一路投資佔其GDP比重接近的情況下，為何有些國家會陷入債務陷阱，而有些國家卻不會?作者選取了六個發展中國家，將其分為兩組來回答該問題。第一組由三個國家組成，中國債務占這些國家 GDP 的比例很高，包含了寮國、吉布地以及安哥拉。第二組則是債務問題較小的國家，包含柬埔寨、斯里蘭卡和茅利塔尼亞。根據本研究的經濟與政治指標，政治自由度和政府效率明顯較低的一帶一路參與國更容易陷入中國債務陷阱。此外，作者確定了兩個具體案例的先決條件，寮國和吉布地最終陷入債務陷阱，主要因為大型基礎設施項目最終證明是無利可圖的，並加劇了隱藏債務的數量，而於安哥拉的例子中，其落入債務陷阱的主要決定因素是石油換基礎設施貸款計劃。本研究最後為政策制定者提供了一些研究意義，並為未來的研究者提供研究建議。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Why do certain BRI participants end up in debt traps while others do not? Throughout the years, many discussions emerged on the topic of Chinese debt traps. So far, there is no consensus among the scholarly community on what precondition may determine the situation of particular BRI members. This thesis contributes to the BRI discourse by proposing the following research question – Among the picked BRI-participating countries with similar political and economic conditions and close degrees of BRI investments over their GDP, why do some countries fall into debt traps, while others do not? The author selected six developing countries and divided them into two groups to answer this question. The first consisted of three nations that reached high debt exposure to China as a percentage of their GDP. Those countries are Laos, Djibouti, and Angola. In the second group, the author placed countries with minor debt distress issues: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Mauritania. The analysis of economic and political measurements shows a critical precondition that BRI members with significantly lower levels of political freedom and government efficiency are more likely to fall into Chinese debt traps. Furthermore, the author determined two case-specific prerequisites. In the examples of Laos and Djibouti, the nations ended up in a debt trap primarily due to large infrastructural projects that turned out to be not profitable and exacerbated the amount of hidden debt. In the instance of Angola, the main determinant was the oil-for-infrastructure loan scheme. The thesis concludes with implications for policymakers and suggestions for future research. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents List of Figures 9List of Tables 10List of Abbreviations 11Chapter 1: Research Background and Motivation 131.1 The Origin of the Belt and Road Initiative & The Rise of China as a Global Lender 131.2 Purpose of the Research 151.3 Key Concepts 181.4 Main Argument 191.5 Structure of the Thesis 20Chapter 2: Literature Review and Methodology 232.1 The Origin of the Debt-Trap Discourse 232.2 China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy 262.3 Methodology 322.4 Case Study Selection 342.5 Economic Measurements 372.6 Political Measurements 382.7 Research Limitations 40Chapter 3: Laos, Djibouti, and Angola: Countries That Fell into the Chinese Debt Traps 433.1 Economic Measurements — Laos, Djibouti, and Angola 443.2 Political Measurements — Laos, Djibouti, and Angola 473.3 Why Laos Fell into the Chinese Debt Trap 513.4 Why Djibouti Fell into the Chinese Debt Trap 543.5 Why Angola Fell into the Chinese Debt Trap 553.6 Conclusion 56Chapter 4: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Mauritania: Countries That Did Not Fall into the Chinese Debt Traps 594.1 Economic Measurements — Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Mauritania 594.2 Political Measurements — Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Mauritania 634.3 Why Cambodia Did Not Fall into the Chinese Debt Trap 664.4 Why Sri Lanka Did Not Fall into the Chinese Debt Trap 694.5 Why Mauritania Did Not Fall into the Chinese Debt Trap 714.6 Conclusion 72Chapter 5: Conclusion 755.1 Results – Cambodia & Laos 755.2 Results – Sri Lanka & Djibouti 765.3 Results – Mauritania & Angola 785.4 Final Conclusions 795.5 Policy Implications and Future Research Suggestions 84References 85 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1503520 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109862016 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 一帶一路 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 開發中國家 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 債務陷阱 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Belt and Road Initiative en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Debt-Trap Diplomacy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Developing Countries en_US dc.title (題名) 何時「一帶一路」的參與國會落入債務陷阱? 六個開發中國家的個案研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) When Do BRI Participants Fall into Debt Traps? 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