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題名 失業對家戶生育決策的影響
Effect of Job Loss on Family’s Fertility Decision
作者 江依靜
Jiang, Yi-Jing
貢獻者 黃柏鈞
Huang, Po-Chun
江依靜
Jiang, Yi-Jing
關鍵詞 失業
非自願離職
生育決策
薪資所得
Unemployment
Involuntary unemployment
Fertility decisions
Annual earnings
日期 2022
上傳時間 2-Sep-2022 15:26:14 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文採用2001–2018年的華人家庭動態資料庫的資料，並根據樣本的就業狀態將持續有工作者作為對照組以探討失業對家庭生育決策的影響。為了研究非自願離職影響生育的其他可能因素，本文亦探討非自願離職對薪資所得的影響。實證結果顯示，非自願離職對男性的生育決策造成顯著的負面影響，其效果隨時間而逐漸擴大–在失業六年後，非自願離職男性會少0.441位子女，而生育率則少25.2個百分點；對女性而言，非自願離職對其生育決策則無顯著影響。
This thesis analyzes the effects of unemployment on family fertility decisions using the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) from 2001 to 2018. I use continuous workers as a control group based on the sample`s employment status. In order to examine other potential factors affecting fertility, this paper also estimates the effect of involuntary unemployment on annual earnings. The empirical results show that involuntary unemployment harms male fertility decisions, increasing over time. After six years of unemployment, the treatment group of males has 0.441 fewer children and 25.2 percentage points less the probability of giving birth. For women, however, there is no significant effect of involuntary unemployment on their fertility decisions.
參考文獻 陳慶安（2014）。所得不確定性對生育率的影響。國立臺灣大學經濟學系碩士論文。\n彭錦鵬、王麗容、劉坤億（2013）。晚婚、不婚現象因應對策之研究，內政部委託研究計畫（X1011225）。\n黃淑婷（2017）。我國育兒經濟支持政策之檢討。國家發展委員會人力發展處（編），《人力規劃及發展研究報告第17輯》，臺北：國家發展委員會，33-62。\n鄭珮嘉（2012）。非自願離職中年轉業者之生涯轉換歷程與影響決定因素之探究。國立臺南大學諮商與輔導學系碩士論文。\n駱明慶（2007）。臺灣總生育率下降的表象於實際。《研究臺灣》，第三期，37-60。\n戴君怡（2012）。相對地位對生育決策的影響—以女性收入及教育為例。國立中央大學產業經濟碩士論文。\nAmialchuk, Aliaksabdr. (2013). The Effect of Husband`s Job Displacement on the Timing and Spacing of Births in the United States. Contemporary Economic Policy, 31(1), 73-93.\nAndersen, S. H., & Özcan, B. (2021). The effects of unemployment on fertility. Advances in Life Course Research, 49, 100401.\nAdsera, A. (2005). Vanishing children: From high unemployment to low fertility in developed countries. American Economic Review, 95(2), 189-193.\nAdsera, A. (2017). Education and fertility in the context of rising inequality. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 15, 63-92.\nBalbo, N., Billari, F. C., & Mills, M. (2013). Fertility in advanced societies: A review of research. European Journal of Population/Revue europeenne de demographie, 29(1), 1-38.\nBecker, Gary S. (1960). An Economic Analysis of Fertility, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc: 209-240.\nBecker, Gary S. (1992). Fertility and the Economy. Journal of Population Economics, 5(3), 185-201.\nBecker, Gary S., & Lewis, H. Gregg. (1973). On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children. Journal of political Economy, 81(2, Part 2), S279-S288.\nBoivin, J., Buntin, L., Kalebic, N., & Harrison C. (2018). What makes people ready to conceive? Findings from the International Fertility Decision-Making Study. Reproductive BioMedicine & Society Online, 6, 90-101.\nBono, E. D., Weber, A., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2015). Fertility and economic instability: The role of unemployment and job displacement. Journal of Population Economics, 28(2), 463-478.\nCouch, K. A., & Placzek, D. W. (2010). Earnings losses of displaced workers revisited. American Economic Review, 100(1), 572-589.\nCunningham, J., & Macan, T. (2007). Effects of Applicant Pregnancy on Hiring Decisions and Interview Ratings. Sex Roles, 57(7), 497-508.\nClarke, D., & Tapia-Schythe, K. (2021). Implementing the panel event study. The Stata Journal, 21 (4), 853-884.\nCain, G. G., & Weininger, A. (1973). Economic determinants of fertility: Results from cross sectional aggregate data. Demography, 10(2), 205-223.\nCharles, K. K., & Stephens, M. (2004). Disability, job displacement and divorce. Journal of Labor Economics, 22(2), 489-522.\nCigno, A., & Ermisch, J. (1989). A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births. European economic review, 33(4), 737-760.\nDel Bono, E., Weber, A., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2012). Clash of Career and Family: Fertility Decisions after Job Displacement. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(4), 659-683.\nEliason, M., & Storrie, D. (2006). Lasting or Latent Scars? Swedish Evidence on the Long-Term Effects of Job Displacement. Journal of Labor Economics, 24(4), 831-856.\nEllwood, D. T. (1982). Teenage unemployment: Permanent scars or temporary blemishes?. The youth labor market problem: Its nature, causes, and consequences (pp. 349-390). University of Chicago Press.\nFarber, Henry S. (2010). Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States. Labor in the new economy. University of Chicago Press, 223-262.\nFallick, B. C. (1996). A review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers. ILR Review, 50(1), 5-16.\nGlavin, P., Young, M., & Schieman, S. (2020). Labor market influences on Women`s fertility decisions: longitudinal evidence from Canada. Social Science Research, 88, 102417\nHoffman, L. W., & Manis, J. D. (1978). Influences of Children on Marital Interaction and Parental Satisfactions and Dissatisfactions. Child Influences on Marital and Family Interaction. Academic Press, 165-213.\nHofmann, B., Kreyenfeld, M., & Uhlendorff, A. (2017). Job displacement and first birth over the business cycle. Demography, 54(3), 933-959.\nHuang, Jr. T. (2003). Unemployment and Family Behavior in Taiwan. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 24(1), 27-48.\nHuttunen, K., & Kellokumpu, J. (2016). The Effect of Job Displacement on Couples’ Fertility Decisions. Journal of Labor Economics, 34(2), 403-442.\nHuttunen, K., Møen, J., & Salvanes, K. G. (2011). How destructive is creative destruction? Effects of job loss on job mobility, withdrawal and income. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(5), 840-870.\nHalla, M., Schmieder, J., & Weber, A. (2020). Job displacement, family dynamics, and spousal labor supply. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 12(4), 253-87.\nJacobson, L. S., LaLonde, R. J. & Sullivan, D. G. (1993). Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers. The American economic review, 685-709.\nKravdal, Ø. (2002). The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway. Demographic Research, 6, 263-294.\nKim, J. H., Lee, H., & Lee, S. K. (2022). Do credit supply shocks affect fertility choices?. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 34, 100633.\nKrolikowski, P. (2018). Choosing a control group for displaced workers. ILR Review, 71(5), 1232-1254\nLindo, J. M. (2010). Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks. Journal of Human Resources, 45(2), 301-327.\nLindo, J. M. (2011). Parental job loss and infant health. Journal of health economics, 30(5), 869-879.\nMiller, A. R. (2011). The effects of motherhood timing on career path. Journal of Population Economics, 24(3), 1071-1100.\nMincer, J. (1963). Market Prices, Opportunity Costs, and Income Effects. Measurement in Economics, 67-82.\nMiettinen, A., & Jalovaara, M. (2020). Unemployment delays first birth but not for all. Life stage and educational differences in the effects of employment uncertainty on first births. Advances in Life Course Research, 43, 100320.\nPan, J. N., & Yang, Y. J. (2020). The impact of economic uncertainty on the decision of fertility: Evidence from Taiwan. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101090.\nPetersen, M. A. (2009). Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets: Comparing approaches. The Review of financial studies, 22(1), 435-480.\nRuhm, C. J. (1991). Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements?. The American Economic Review, 81(1), 319-324.\nRege, M., Telle, K., & Votruba, M. (2007). Plant closure and marital dissolution. Discussion papers No. 514, Statistics Norway, Research Department.\nSchultz, T. P. (1985). Changing world prices, women`s wages, and the fertility transition: Sweden, 1860-1910. Journal of Political Economy, 93(6), 1126-1154.\nStevens, A. H. (1997). Persistent effects of job displacement: The importance of multiple job losses. Journal of Labor Economics, 15(1, Part 1), 165-188.\nSullivan, D., & Von Wachter, T. (2009). Job displacement and mortality: An analysis using administrative data. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(3), 1265-1306.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
109258027
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258027
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 黃柏鈞zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Po-Chunen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 江依靜zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Jiang, Yi-Jingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 江依靜zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Jiang, Yi-Jingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2022en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2022 15:26:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Sep-2022 15:26:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2022 15:26:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109258027en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=161109-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 109258027zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文採用2001–2018年的華人家庭動態資料庫的資料，並根據樣本的就業狀態將持續有工作者作為對照組以探討失業對家庭生育決策的影響。為了研究非自願離職影響生育的其他可能因素，本文亦探討非自願離職對薪資所得的影響。實證結果顯示，非自願離職對男性的生育決策造成顯著的負面影響，其效果隨時間而逐漸擴大–在失業六年後，非自願離職男性會少0.441位子女，而生育率則少25.2個百分點；對女性而言，非自願離職對其生育決策則無顯著影響。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis analyzes the effects of unemployment on family fertility decisions using the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) from 2001 to 2018. I use continuous workers as a control group based on the sample`s employment status. In order to examine other potential factors affecting fertility, this paper also estimates the effect of involuntary unemployment on annual earnings. The empirical results show that involuntary unemployment harms male fertility decisions, increasing over time. After six years of unemployment, the treatment group of males has 0.441 fewer children and 25.2 percentage points less the probability of giving birth. For women, however, there is no significant effect of involuntary unemployment on their fertility decisions.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1\n第二章 文獻回顧 6\n第一節 工資報酬、家戶所得與生育決策 6\n第二節 非自願離職與生育決策 7\n第三節 失業率與生育決策 10\n第三章 資料說明與樣本選取 12\n第一節 資料來源 12\n第二節 樣本選擇策略 13\n第三節 變數選擇 15\n第四節 敘述統計 16\n第四章 模型 21\n第一節 差異中之差異法 21\n第二節 事件分析法 23\n第五章 實證結果 24\n第一節 失業對子女數及生育率的影響 24\n第二節 失業對子女數及生育率的動態效果 27\n第三節 失業對個人及家戶年薪資所得的影響 29\n第四節 失業對個人及家戶年薪資所得的動態效果 31\n第六章 結論 34\n參考文獻 36zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1818199 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258027en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 非自願離職zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育決策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 薪資所得zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Unemploymenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Involuntary unemploymenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fertility decisionsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Annual earningsen_US
dc.title (題名) 失業對家戶生育決策的影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Effect of Job Loss on Family’s Fertility Decisionen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳慶安（2014）。所得不確定性對生育率的影響。國立臺灣大學經濟學系碩士論文。\n彭錦鵬、王麗容、劉坤億（2013）。晚婚、不婚現象因應對策之研究，內政部委託研究計畫（X1011225）。\n黃淑婷（2017）。我國育兒經濟支持政策之檢討。國家發展委員會人力發展處（編），《人力規劃及發展研究報告第17輯》，臺北：國家發展委員會，33-62。\n鄭珮嘉（2012）。非自願離職中年轉業者之生涯轉換歷程與影響決定因素之探究。國立臺南大學諮商與輔導學系碩士論文。\n駱明慶（2007）。臺灣總生育率下降的表象於實際。《研究臺灣》，第三期，37-60。\n戴君怡（2012）。相對地位對生育決策的影響—以女性收入及教育為例。國立中央大學產業經濟碩士論文。\nAmialchuk, Aliaksabdr. (2013). The Effect of Husband`s Job Displacement on the Timing and Spacing of Births in the United States. Contemporary Economic Policy, 31(1), 73-93.\nAndersen, S. H., & Özcan, B. (2021). The effects of unemployment on fertility. Advances in Life Course Research, 49, 100401.\nAdsera, A. (2005). Vanishing children: From high unemployment to low fertility in developed countries. American Economic Review, 95(2), 189-193.\nAdsera, A. (2017). Education and fertility in the context of rising inequality. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 15, 63-92.\nBalbo, N., Billari, F. C., & Mills, M. (2013). Fertility in advanced societies: A review of research. European Journal of Population/Revue europeenne de demographie, 29(1), 1-38.\nBecker, Gary S. (1960). An Economic Analysis of Fertility, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc: 209-240.\nBecker, Gary S. (1992). Fertility and the Economy. Journal of Population Economics, 5(3), 185-201.\nBecker, Gary S., & Lewis, H. Gregg. (1973). On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children. Journal of political Economy, 81(2, Part 2), S279-S288.\nBoivin, J., Buntin, L., Kalebic, N., & Harrison C. (2018). What makes people ready to conceive? Findings from the International Fertility Decision-Making Study. Reproductive BioMedicine & Society Online, 6, 90-101.\nBono, E. D., Weber, A., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2015). Fertility and economic instability: The role of unemployment and job displacement. Journal of Population Economics, 28(2), 463-478.\nCouch, K. A., & Placzek, D. W. (2010). Earnings losses of displaced workers revisited. American Economic Review, 100(1), 572-589.\nCunningham, J., & Macan, T. (2007). Effects of Applicant Pregnancy on Hiring Decisions and Interview Ratings. Sex Roles, 57(7), 497-508.\nClarke, D., & Tapia-Schythe, K. (2021). Implementing the panel event study. The Stata Journal, 21 (4), 853-884.\nCain, G. G., & Weininger, A. (1973). Economic determinants of fertility: Results from cross sectional aggregate data. Demography, 10(2), 205-223.\nCharles, K. K., & Stephens, M. (2004). Disability, job displacement and divorce. Journal of Labor Economics, 22(2), 489-522.\nCigno, A., & Ermisch, J. (1989). A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births. European economic review, 33(4), 737-760.\nDel Bono, E., Weber, A., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2012). Clash of Career and Family: Fertility Decisions after Job Displacement. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(4), 659-683.\nEliason, M., & Storrie, D. (2006). Lasting or Latent Scars? Swedish Evidence on the Long-Term Effects of Job Displacement. Journal of Labor Economics, 24(4), 831-856.\nEllwood, D. T. (1982). Teenage unemployment: Permanent scars or temporary blemishes?. The youth labor market problem: Its nature, causes, and consequences (pp. 349-390). University of Chicago Press.\nFarber, Henry S. (2010). Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States. Labor in the new economy. University of Chicago Press, 223-262.\nFallick, B. C. (1996). A review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers. ILR Review, 50(1), 5-16.\nGlavin, P., Young, M., & Schieman, S. (2020). Labor market influences on Women`s fertility decisions: longitudinal evidence from Canada. Social Science Research, 88, 102417\nHoffman, L. W., & Manis, J. D. (1978). Influences of Children on Marital Interaction and Parental Satisfactions and Dissatisfactions. Child Influences on Marital and Family Interaction. Academic Press, 165-213.\nHofmann, B., Kreyenfeld, M., & Uhlendorff, A. (2017). Job displacement and first birth over the business cycle. Demography, 54(3), 933-959.\nHuang, Jr. T. (2003). Unemployment and Family Behavior in Taiwan. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 24(1), 27-48.\nHuttunen, K., & Kellokumpu, J. (2016). The Effect of Job Displacement on Couples’ Fertility Decisions. Journal of Labor Economics, 34(2), 403-442.\nHuttunen, K., Møen, J., & Salvanes, K. G. (2011). How destructive is creative destruction? Effects of job loss on job mobility, withdrawal and income. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(5), 840-870.\nHalla, M., Schmieder, J., & Weber, A. (2020). Job displacement, family dynamics, and spousal labor supply. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 12(4), 253-87.\nJacobson, L. S., LaLonde, R. J. & Sullivan, D. G. (1993). Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers. The American economic review, 685-709.\nKravdal, Ø. (2002). The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway. Demographic Research, 6, 263-294.\nKim, J. H., Lee, H., & Lee, S. K. (2022). Do credit supply shocks affect fertility choices?. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 34, 100633.\nKrolikowski, P. (2018). Choosing a control group for displaced workers. ILR Review, 71(5), 1232-1254\nLindo, J. M. (2010). Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks. Journal of Human Resources, 45(2), 301-327.\nLindo, J. M. (2011). Parental job loss and infant health. Journal of health economics, 30(5), 869-879.\nMiller, A. R. (2011). The effects of motherhood timing on career path. Journal of Population Economics, 24(3), 1071-1100.\nMincer, J. (1963). Market Prices, Opportunity Costs, and Income Effects. Measurement in Economics, 67-82.\nMiettinen, A., & Jalovaara, M. (2020). Unemployment delays first birth but not for all. Life stage and educational differences in the effects of employment uncertainty on first births. Advances in Life Course Research, 43, 100320.\nPan, J. N., & Yang, Y. J. (2020). The impact of economic uncertainty on the decision of fertility: Evidence from Taiwan. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101090.\nPetersen, M. A. (2009). Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets: Comparing approaches. The Review of financial studies, 22(1), 435-480.\nRuhm, C. J. (1991). Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements?. The American Economic Review, 81(1), 319-324.\nRege, M., Telle, K., & Votruba, M. (2007). Plant closure and marital dissolution. Discussion papers No. 514, Statistics Norway, Research Department.\nSchultz, T. P. (1985). Changing world prices, women`s wages, and the fertility transition: Sweden, 1860-1910. Journal of Political Economy, 93(6), 1126-1154.\nStevens, A. H. (1997). Persistent effects of job displacement: The importance of multiple job losses. Journal of Labor Economics, 15(1, Part 1), 165-188.\nSullivan, D., & Von Wachter, T. (2009). Job displacement and mortality: An analysis using administrative data. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(3), 1265-1306.zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202201366en_US