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題名 經濟衰退對於應屆畢業生之職涯衝擊
The career effects of graduating in a recession作者 柯香聞
Ko, Hsiang-Wen貢獻者 黃柏鈞
Huang, Po-Chun
柯香聞
Ko, Hsiang-Wen關鍵詞 經濟衰退
初入勞動市場
失業率
薪資損失
recession
entering the labor market
unemployment rate
wage loss日期 2022 上傳時間 2-Sep-2022 15:27:26 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文採用2004年至2018年間的華人家庭動態資料庫的資料，探討在經濟衰退期間進入職場對青年隨後在勞動市場表現上的影響。實證結果顯示，景氣衰退期間進入職場的不幸青年初始薪資損失為21%，和相對於失業率低一個百分點進入職場的青年在初始工資上有顯著的差異。每當失業率上升一個百分點時，隨著年資的累積，工作經驗的報酬有顯著正向影響，背後所隱含著在景氣衰退下進入職場的青年需花16年的工作經驗，縮短與景氣較好時進入職場的青年薪資報酬間的差距。另外，將初入職場的青年依照不同個人特性去做分組，其中發現男性或教育程度為高中或在學時期選擇理組科系較容易受到景氣衰退的影響且累積的薪資折現損失較大。
This article estimates the impact of entering the workforce during a recession on youth`s subsequent labor market performance using data from the 2004 and 2018 Panel Study of Family Dynamics（PSFD）. The empirical results show that youth entering the workforce during recessions lost 21% of their initial wages, significantly lower than the initial wages for youth entering the workforce when the unemployment rate is one percentage point lower. With the accumulation of seniority, the remuneration of work experience has a significant positive impact, which implies that it takes 16 years of work experience for the wage loss to disappear. In addition, males, high-school graduates, or those who choose science major are more likely to be affected by economic recession and have a larger cumulative discounted salary loss.參考文獻 一、中文文獻朱勗慈 （2007）臺灣地區大學畢業生生涯選擇相關因素之探討，世新大學管理學院經濟系碩士論文。何衣璿 （2015）景氣循環對失業和工資的影響，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。李健鴻（2014）初次尋職青年的長期失業原因、問題與對策，《社區發展季刊146期》洪漫格 （2017）第一份工作重要嗎?性別與世代差異初探，臺北大學社會所碩士論文。徐美 （2006）臺灣高等教育擴張政策實施對過度教育工作者薪資影響之評估康逸筠 （2013）理工科系大學生性別、家庭社經地位隊成就抱負與預期薪資之路徑分析，國立政治大學教育學院教育學系碩士論文。許菁君 （2016）青年就業與工資差距之實證研究，《全球商業經營管理學報第八期》。鄒博全 （2017）臺灣失業青年之疤痕成因與效應，國立政治大學勞工研究所碩士學文論文。關秉寅、彭思錦、崔成秀（2019） 臺灣高教擴張對年輕世代薪資及職業聲望的影響:反事實的分析。《人文及社會科學集刊》第三十一卷第四期二、英文文獻Blanchflower, D. G., & Oswald, A. J. （1995）. An introduction to the wage curve. Journal of economic perspectives, 9（3）, 153-167.Brunner, B., & Kuhn, A. （2014）. The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages. Journal of Population Economics, 27（3）, 705-738.Cortes, G. M., & Forsythe, E. （2022）. The heterogeneous labor market impacts of the covid-19 pandemic. Industrial and Labor Relations Review.Elsby, M. W., Hobijn, B., & Sahin, A. （2010）. The labor market in the Great Recession （No. w15979）. National Bureau of Economic Research.Forsythe, E. C. （2022）. Youth Hiring and Labor Market Tightness. In AEA Papers and Proceedings （Vol. 112, pp. 117-20）. American Economic Association.Genda, Y., Kondo, A., & Ohta, S. （2010）. Long-term effects of a recession at labor market entry in Japan and the United States. Journal of Human resources, 45（1）, 157-196.Gregg, P., & Tominey, E. （2005）. The wage scar from male youth unemployment. Labour Economics, 12（4）, 487-509.Hershbein, B. J. （2012）. Graduating high school in a recession: Work, education, and home production. The BE journal of economic analysis & policy, 12（1）.Kahn, L. B. （2010）. The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy. Labour economics, 17（2）, 303-316.Kondo, A. （2015）. Differential effects of graduating during a recession across gender and race. IZA Journal of Labor Economics, 4（1）, 1-24.Kwon, I., Milgrom, E. M., & Hwang, S. （2010）. Cohort effects in promotions and wages evidence from Sweden and the United States. Journal of Human Resources, 45（3）, 772-808.Liu, K., Salvanes, K. G., & Sørensen, E. Ø. （2016）. Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession. European Economic Review, 84, 3-17.Oreopoulos, P., Von Wachter, T., & Heisz, A. （2012）. The short-and long-term career effects of graduating in a recession. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4（1）, 1-29.Oyer, P. （2006）. Initial labor market conditions and long-term outcomes for economists. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20（3）, 143-160.Oyer, P. （2008）. The making of an investment banker: Stock market shocks, career choice, and lifetime income. The Journal of Finance, 63（6）, 2601-2628.Schwandt, H., & Von Wachter, T. （2019）. Unlucky cohorts: Estimating the long-term effects of entering the labor market in a recession in large cross-sectional data sets. Journal of Labor Economics, 37（S1）, S161-S198.Shin, D. （1994）. Cyclicality of real wages among young men. Economics Letters, 46（2）, 137-142.Speer, J. D. （2016）. Wages, hours, and the school-to-work transition: the consequences of leaving school in a recession for less-educated men. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 16（1）, 97-124.Stevens, K. （2008）. Adverse economic conditions at labour market entry: Permanent scars or rapid catch-up. University of Sydney.Von Wachter, T. （2020）. The persistent effects of initial labor market conditions for young adults and their sources. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34（4）, 168-94.Wozniak, A. （2010）. Are college graduates more responsive to distant labor market opportunities?. Journal of Human Resources, 45（4）, 944-970. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
109258038資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258038 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃柏鈞 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Po-Chun en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 柯香聞 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ko, Hsiang-Wen en_US dc.creator (作者) 柯香聞 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Ko, Hsiang-Wen en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2022 15:27:26 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2022 15:27:26 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2022 15:27:26 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109258038 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141746 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109258038 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文採用2004年至2018年間的華人家庭動態資料庫的資料，探討在經濟衰退期間進入職場對青年隨後在勞動市場表現上的影響。實證結果顯示，景氣衰退期間進入職場的不幸青年初始薪資損失為21%，和相對於失業率低一個百分點進入職場的青年在初始工資上有顯著的差異。每當失業率上升一個百分點時，隨著年資的累積，工作經驗的報酬有顯著正向影響，背後所隱含著在景氣衰退下進入職場的青年需花16年的工作經驗，縮短與景氣較好時進入職場的青年薪資報酬間的差距。另外，將初入職場的青年依照不同個人特性去做分組，其中發現男性或教育程度為高中或在學時期選擇理組科系較容易受到景氣衰退的影響且累積的薪資折現損失較大。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This article estimates the impact of entering the workforce during a recession on youth`s subsequent labor market performance using data from the 2004 and 2018 Panel Study of Family Dynamics（PSFD）. The empirical results show that youth entering the workforce during recessions lost 21% of their initial wages, significantly lower than the initial wages for youth entering the workforce when the unemployment rate is one percentage point lower. With the accumulation of seniority, the remuneration of work experience has a significant positive impact, which implies that it takes 16 years of work experience for the wage loss to disappear. In addition, males, high-school graduates, or those who choose science major are more likely to be affected by economic recession and have a larger cumulative discounted salary loss. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 目錄謝辭 I摘要 IIAbstract III圖次 VI表次 VI第一章 緒論 1第二章 文獻回顧 5第一節 景氣衰退對青年的薪資影響及終生損失 5第二節 薪資損失的異質性 7第三節 小結 10第三章 資料來源與變數說明 11第一節 資料結構及處理 11第二節 變數選擇及敘述統計 13第三節 金融風暴前後進入勞動市場之薪資現值差異 16第四節 小結 17第四章 實證模型 18第五章 估計結果 20第一節 線性模型的估計結果 20第二節 設算失業率上升造成之薪資損失 21第三節 折現薪資損失與敘述統計結果比較 24第六章 結論 25參考文獻 28主要圖表 31附錄 44 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1936821 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258038 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟衰退 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 初入勞動市場 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 薪資損失 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) recession en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) entering the labor market en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) unemployment rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) wage loss en_US dc.title (題名) 經濟衰退對於應屆畢業生之職涯衝擊 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The career effects of graduating in a recession en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻朱勗慈 （2007）臺灣地區大學畢業生生涯選擇相關因素之探討，世新大學管理學院經濟系碩士論文。何衣璿 （2015）景氣循環對失業和工資的影響，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。李健鴻（2014）初次尋職青年的長期失業原因、問題與對策，《社區發展季刊146期》洪漫格 （2017）第一份工作重要嗎?性別與世代差異初探，臺北大學社會所碩士論文。徐美 （2006）臺灣高等教育擴張政策實施對過度教育工作者薪資影響之評估康逸筠 （2013）理工科系大學生性別、家庭社經地位隊成就抱負與預期薪資之路徑分析，國立政治大學教育學院教育學系碩士論文。許菁君 （2016）青年就業與工資差距之實證研究，《全球商業經營管理學報第八期》。鄒博全 （2017）臺灣失業青年之疤痕成因與效應，國立政治大學勞工研究所碩士學文論文。關秉寅、彭思錦、崔成秀（2019） 臺灣高教擴張對年輕世代薪資及職業聲望的影響:反事實的分析。《人文及社會科學集刊》第三十一卷第四期二、英文文獻Blanchflower, D. G., & Oswald, A. J. （1995）. An introduction to the wage curve. Journal of economic perspectives, 9（3）, 153-167.Brunner, B., & Kuhn, A. （2014）. The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages. Journal of Population Economics, 27（3）, 705-738.Cortes, G. M., & Forsythe, E. （2022）. The heterogeneous labor market impacts of the covid-19 pandemic. Industrial and Labor Relations Review.Elsby, M. W., Hobijn, B., & Sahin, A. （2010）. The labor market in the Great Recession （No. w15979）. National Bureau of Economic Research.Forsythe, E. C. （2022）. Youth Hiring and Labor Market Tightness. In AEA Papers and Proceedings （Vol. 112, pp. 117-20）. American Economic Association.Genda, Y., Kondo, A., & Ohta, S. （2010）. Long-term effects of a recession at labor market entry in Japan and the United States. Journal of Human resources, 45（1）, 157-196.Gregg, P., & Tominey, E. （2005）. The wage scar from male youth unemployment. Labour Economics, 12（4）, 487-509.Hershbein, B. J. （2012）. Graduating high school in a recession: Work, education, and home production. The BE journal of economic analysis & policy, 12（1）.Kahn, L. B. （2010）. The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy. Labour economics, 17（2）, 303-316.Kondo, A. （2015）. Differential effects of graduating during a recession across gender and race. IZA Journal of Labor Economics, 4（1）, 1-24.Kwon, I., Milgrom, E. M., & Hwang, S. （2010）. Cohort effects in promotions and wages evidence from Sweden and the United States. Journal of Human Resources, 45（3）, 772-808.Liu, K., Salvanes, K. G., & Sørensen, E. Ø. （2016）. Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession. European Economic Review, 84, 3-17.Oreopoulos, P., Von Wachter, T., & Heisz, A. （2012）. The short-and long-term career effects of graduating in a recession. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4（1）, 1-29.Oyer, P. （2006）. Initial labor market conditions and long-term outcomes for economists. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20（3）, 143-160.Oyer, P. （2008）. The making of an investment banker: Stock market shocks, career choice, and lifetime income. The Journal of Finance, 63（6）, 2601-2628.Schwandt, H., & Von Wachter, T. （2019）. Unlucky cohorts: Estimating the long-term effects of entering the labor market in a recession in large cross-sectional data sets. Journal of Labor Economics, 37（S1）, S161-S198.Shin, D. （1994）. Cyclicality of real wages among young men. Economics Letters, 46（2）, 137-142.Speer, J. D. （2016）. Wages, hours, and the school-to-work transition: the consequences of leaving school in a recession for less-educated men. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 16（1）, 97-124.Stevens, K. （2008）. Adverse economic conditions at labour market entry: Permanent scars or rapid catch-up. University of Sydney.Von Wachter, T. （2020）. The persistent effects of initial labor market conditions for young adults and their sources. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34（4）, 168-94.Wozniak, A. （2010）. Are college graduates more responsive to distant labor market opportunities?. Journal of Human Resources, 45（4）, 944-970. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202201355 en_US
