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題名 台灣振興三倍券之總體經濟效果分析
Macroeconomic Effects of Triple Stimulus Vouchers in Taiwan作者 楊雅茹
Yang, Ya-Ru貢獻者 朱琇妍
Chu, Shiou-Yen
楊雅茹
Yang, Ya-Ru關鍵詞 振興三倍券
民間消費
新型冠狀病毒肺炎
財政政策
動態隨機一般均衡模型
Triple Stimulus Vouchers
Private consumption
COVID-19
Fiscal policy
DSGE model日期 2022 上傳時間 2-Sep-2022 15:28:57 (UTC+8) 摘要 2019年末爆發的新型冠狀病毒肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情造成全球經濟嚴重衰退，亦讓台灣的民間消費出現歷年來最低迷的景況。中央政府為求刺激國內消費而決定發放振興三倍券，期望能藉此提振消費者信心與帶動受疫情影響產業之營收表現。本研究建構了一個動態隨機一般均衡 (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium，DSGE) 模型，並透過模擬台灣振興三倍券政策的衝擊，以探討此政策對總體經濟的影響。研究結果發現，振興三倍券政策在短期內可以達到活絡內需市場的效果，並提高民間消費量。其中，非耐久財的消費成長相較於耐久財更為顯著。經濟體中的總體通貨膨脹率亦提高。此外，模擬成果也觀察到此政策能提升勞動投入量，促進就業市場回溫。
The outbreak of COVID-19 in late 2019 caused a severe recession in the global economy, and Taiwan`s private consumption was at its lowest level in history. In order to spur domestic consumption, the central government issued Triple Stimulus Vouchers, hoping to increase consumer confidence and boost the revenue performance of industries affected by the pandemic.This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and simulates the shock of Taiwan`s Triple Stimulus Vouchers program to explore the macroeconomic effects of this policy. The results indicate that the Triple Stimulus Vouchers program could achieve the effect of activating the domestic demand market in the short term and increase private consumption. Among them, the growth of non-durables is more significant than that of durables. The overall inflation rate also rose. In addition, the simulation results also revealed that this policy contributed to the increase of labor input and promoted the recovery of the job market.參考文獻 中央銀行 (2020)。世界各國為因應新冠肺炎之衝擊，採取對策(例如:採行的QE與減稅政策等)對我國財政、金融、經濟整體環境所造成之影響與政府因應之道。毛慶生 (2014)。總體經濟學:古典新論（一）:毛慶生出版：雙葉書廊總經銷。行政院主計總處綜合統計處 (2020)。國民所得統計及經濟成長。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=46217&ctNode=497&mp=4。行政院新聞傳播處 (2021)。紓困振興措施（1.0-3.0）成果。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.ey.gov.tw/Page/5A8A0CB5B41DA11E/3910401a-4202-411a-9877-bba04d10a1df。吳天佑 (2021)。以RBC理論探討COVID-19之經濟及政策影響。經濟研究年刊，21，209-240。汪震亞 (2021)。各國因應COVID-19(武漢肺炎)疫情對經貿衝擊之對策及啟示. 經濟研究年刊，21，98-142。林賢參 (2020)。COVID-19(武漢肺炎)疫情對日本政經情勢的影響。展望與探索月刊，18(4)，23-29。黃俞寧 (2013)。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35(1)，3-33。經濟部 (2021)。振興三倍券執行成效評估書面報告。民111年1月29日，取自：http://www3.nccu.edu.tw/~joe/Comm/moea3foldcoouponreviewreport_20210731.pdf經濟部 (2021)。振興三倍券領用、兌付及資源配置執行情形書面檢討報告。經濟部統計處 (2020)。109年7月批發、零售及餐飲業營業額統計。批發、零售及餐飲業營業額統計。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=8&html=1&menu_id=6727&bull_id=7626經濟部統計處 (2020)。振興措施助攻，藥粧零售業7月起重回成長軌道。產業經濟統計簡訊。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=9&html=1&menu_id=18808&bull_id=7825經濟部統計處 (2020)。當前經濟情勢概況 (專題：後疫情時期我國零售及餐飲業之情勢)。民111年7月22日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=23&html=1&menu_id=10212&bull_id=7838管中閔與邱永翔 (2010)。臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型 (DSGE) 建立與政策評估。行政院經濟建設委員會98年度委託研究計畫。顏郁倫 (2016)。台灣消費券的總體效果（碩士論文）。國立中山大學經濟學研究所，高雄市。Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2020). Income, liquidity, and the consumption response to the 2020 economic stimulus payments. Retrieved fromBrzoza‐Brzezina, M., & Kolasa, M. (2013). Bayesian evaluation of DSGE models with financial frictions. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(8), 1451-1476.Bui, D., Dräger, L., Hayo, B., & Nghiem, G. (2022). The effects of fiscal policy on households during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam. World Dev, 153, 105828. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105828Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.Cantelmo, A., & Melina, G. (2018). Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2017.10.006Carroll, C. D., Crawley, E., Slacalek, J., & White, M. N. (2020). Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act. Retrieved fromChristelis, D., Georgarakos, D., Jappelli, T., & Kenny, G. (2020). The Covid-19 crisis and consumption: survey evidence from six EU countries. Available at SSRN 3751097.Chu, S.-Y. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2018.05.002Corrado, L., Grassi, S., & Paolillo, A. (2021). Identifying Economic Shocks in a Rare Disaster Environment. CEIS Tor Vergata Research Paper Series, 19(5).Fama, E. F. (2021). Stimulus and the Permanent Income Hypothesis. Chicago Booth Research Paper(21-08).Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Charles I. Jones. (2020). Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, 111-166.IMF. (2021). Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery. WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/07/27/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2021Junior, Celso J. Costa, Alejandro C. Garcia-Cintado, and Karlo Marques Junior. (2021). Macroeconomic policies and the pandemic-driven recession. International Review of Economics & Finance, 72, 438-465. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2020.12.010Kubota, S., Onishi, K., & Toyama, Y. (2021). Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 188, 1-17. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2021.05.006Leeper, E. M., Walker, T. B., & Yang, S. C. S. (2013). Fiscal foresight and information flows. Econometrica, 81(3), 1115-1145.Lin, Y. C. (2021). Business cycle fluctuations in Taiwan—A Bayesian DSGE analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 70, 103349.McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2021). The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2), 1-30. doi:10.1162/asep_a_00796Monacelli, T. (2009). New Keynesian models, durable goods, and collateral constraints. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(2), 242-254. doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.09.013Park, S. (2022). Permanent Income Hypothesis with Income Disaster and Asset Pricing. Available at SSRN 4018395.Teo, W. L. (2009). Estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Taiwanese economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231.Wang, P.-Y. (2021). Does Taiwan Need a Macro-Prudential Policy? How to Do It? How to Coordinate with Monetary Policy? Academia Economic Papers, 49(1), 1-40. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
108255013資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108255013 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 朱琇妍 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chu, Shiou-Yen en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊雅茹 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Ya-Ru en_US dc.creator (作者) 楊雅茹 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Yang, Ya-Ru en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2022 15:28:57 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2022 15:28:57 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2022 15:28:57 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108255013 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141753 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108255013 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2019年末爆發的新型冠狀病毒肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情造成全球經濟嚴重衰退，亦讓台灣的民間消費出現歷年來最低迷的景況。中央政府為求刺激國內消費而決定發放振興三倍券，期望能藉此提振消費者信心與帶動受疫情影響產業之營收表現。本研究建構了一個動態隨機一般均衡 (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium，DSGE) 模型，並透過模擬台灣振興三倍券政策的衝擊，以探討此政策對總體經濟的影響。研究結果發現，振興三倍券政策在短期內可以達到活絡內需市場的效果，並提高民間消費量。其中，非耐久財的消費成長相較於耐久財更為顯著。經濟體中的總體通貨膨脹率亦提高。此外，模擬成果也觀察到此政策能提升勞動投入量，促進就業市場回溫。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The outbreak of COVID-19 in late 2019 caused a severe recession in the global economy, and Taiwan`s private consumption was at its lowest level in history. In order to spur domestic consumption, the central government issued Triple Stimulus Vouchers, hoping to increase consumer confidence and boost the revenue performance of industries affected by the pandemic.This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and simulates the shock of Taiwan`s Triple Stimulus Vouchers program to explore the macroeconomic effects of this policy. The results indicate that the Triple Stimulus Vouchers program could achieve the effect of activating the domestic demand market in the short term and increase private consumption. Among them, the growth of non-durables is more significant than that of durables. The overall inflation rate also rose. In addition, the simulation results also revealed that this policy contributed to the increase of labor input and promoted the recovery of the job market. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第二章 文獻回顧 5第一節 COVID-19疫情對經濟之影響相關文獻 5第二節 因應COVID-19之紓困與振興政策效果分析文獻 6第三節 COVID-19疫情與恆常所得假說之相關文獻 8第四節 台灣DSGE模型文獻 10第三章 模型建構 11第一節 家計單位 12第二節 廠商部門 15一、最終財廠商 15二、中間財廠商 16第三節 政府部門 18一、財政當局 18二、中央銀行 19第四節 市場結清 20第五節 外生衝擊 20第四章 模型求解與參數設定 22第一節 模型求解 22第二節 參數設定 23第五章 衝擊反應分析 27第一節 振興三倍券政策衝擊影響 27第二節 非耐久財部門與耐久財部門之勞動供給衝擊影響 29第三節 利率衝擊影響 31第四節 政府消費性支出衝擊影響 33第五節 移轉性支付衝擊影響 35第六節 總合要素生產力衝擊影響 37第七節 一般跨期偏好衝擊影響 39第六章 結論 41第一節 研究發現 41第二節 研究限制 42參考文獻 43 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2763491 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108255013 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 振興三倍券 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民間消費 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新型冠狀病毒肺炎 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財政政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Triple Stimulus Vouchers en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Private consumption en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fiscal policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) DSGE model en_US dc.title (題名) 台灣振興三倍券之總體經濟效果分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Macroeconomic Effects of Triple Stimulus Vouchers in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中央銀行 (2020)。世界各國為因應新冠肺炎之衝擊，採取對策(例如:採行的QE與減稅政策等)對我國財政、金融、經濟整體環境所造成之影響與政府因應之道。毛慶生 (2014)。總體經濟學:古典新論（一）:毛慶生出版：雙葉書廊總經銷。行政院主計總處綜合統計處 (2020)。國民所得統計及經濟成長。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=46217&ctNode=497&mp=4。行政院新聞傳播處 (2021)。紓困振興措施（1.0-3.0）成果。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.ey.gov.tw/Page/5A8A0CB5B41DA11E/3910401a-4202-411a-9877-bba04d10a1df。吳天佑 (2021)。以RBC理論探討COVID-19之經濟及政策影響。經濟研究年刊，21，209-240。汪震亞 (2021)。各國因應COVID-19(武漢肺炎)疫情對經貿衝擊之對策及啟示. 經濟研究年刊，21，98-142。林賢參 (2020)。COVID-19(武漢肺炎)疫情對日本政經情勢的影響。展望與探索月刊，18(4)，23-29。黃俞寧 (2013)。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35(1)，3-33。經濟部 (2021)。振興三倍券執行成效評估書面報告。民111年1月29日，取自：http://www3.nccu.edu.tw/~joe/Comm/moea3foldcoouponreviewreport_20210731.pdf經濟部 (2021)。振興三倍券領用、兌付及資源配置執行情形書面檢討報告。經濟部統計處 (2020)。109年7月批發、零售及餐飲業營業額統計。批發、零售及餐飲業營業額統計。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=8&html=1&menu_id=6727&bull_id=7626經濟部統計處 (2020)。振興措施助攻，藥粧零售業7月起重回成長軌道。產業經濟統計簡訊。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=9&html=1&menu_id=18808&bull_id=7825經濟部統計處 (2020)。當前經濟情勢概況 (專題：後疫情時期我國零售及餐飲業之情勢)。民111年7月22日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=23&html=1&menu_id=10212&bull_id=7838管中閔與邱永翔 (2010)。臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型 (DSGE) 建立與政策評估。行政院經濟建設委員會98年度委託研究計畫。顏郁倫 (2016)。台灣消費券的總體效果（碩士論文）。國立中山大學經濟學研究所，高雄市。Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2020). Income, liquidity, and the consumption response to the 2020 economic stimulus payments. Retrieved fromBrzoza‐Brzezina, M., & Kolasa, M. (2013). Bayesian evaluation of DSGE models with financial frictions. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(8), 1451-1476.Bui, D., Dräger, L., Hayo, B., & Nghiem, G. (2022). The effects of fiscal policy on households during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam. World Dev, 153, 105828. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105828Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.Cantelmo, A., & Melina, G. (2018). Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2017.10.006Carroll, C. D., Crawley, E., Slacalek, J., & White, M. N. (2020). Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act. Retrieved fromChristelis, D., Georgarakos, D., Jappelli, T., & Kenny, G. (2020). The Covid-19 crisis and consumption: survey evidence from six EU countries. Available at SSRN 3751097.Chu, S.-Y. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2018.05.002Corrado, L., Grassi, S., & Paolillo, A. (2021). Identifying Economic Shocks in a Rare Disaster Environment. CEIS Tor Vergata Research Paper Series, 19(5).Fama, E. F. (2021). Stimulus and the Permanent Income Hypothesis. Chicago Booth Research Paper(21-08).Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Charles I. Jones. (2020). Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, 111-166.IMF. (2021). Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery. WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/07/27/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2021Junior, Celso J. Costa, Alejandro C. Garcia-Cintado, and Karlo Marques Junior. (2021). Macroeconomic policies and the pandemic-driven recession. International Review of Economics & Finance, 72, 438-465. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2020.12.010Kubota, S., Onishi, K., & Toyama, Y. (2021). Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 188, 1-17. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2021.05.006Leeper, E. M., Walker, T. B., & Yang, S. C. S. (2013). Fiscal foresight and information flows. Econometrica, 81(3), 1115-1145.Lin, Y. C. (2021). Business cycle fluctuations in Taiwan—A Bayesian DSGE analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 70, 103349.McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2021). The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2), 1-30. doi:10.1162/asep_a_00796Monacelli, T. (2009). New Keynesian models, durable goods, and collateral constraints. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(2), 242-254. doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.09.013Park, S. (2022). Permanent Income Hypothesis with Income Disaster and Asset Pricing. Available at SSRN 4018395.Teo, W. L. (2009). Estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Taiwanese economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231.Wang, P.-Y. (2021). Does Taiwan Need a Macro-Prudential Policy? How to Do It? How to Coordinate with Monetary Policy? Academia Economic Papers, 49(1), 1-40. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202201439 en_US
