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題名 美中貿易戰對中國與台灣的出口影響
The effect of US-China trade war on export: evidence from China and Taiwan
作者 陳欣誼
Chen, Hsin-Yi
貢獻者 楊子霆
Yang, Tsu-Ting
陳欣誼
Chen, Hsin-Yi
關鍵詞 美中貿易戰
合成控制法
貿易破壞效果
貿易轉移效果
US-China trade war
synthetic control method
trade destruction effect
trade diversion effect
日期 2022
上傳時間 2-Sep-2022 15:53:05 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文採用合成控制法（SCM）驗證美中貿易戰對中國與台灣的出口反應之因果關係。主要關注點為中國與台灣對美國的出口額變化以量化貿易破壞效果及貿易轉移效果，出口額將根據商品是否包含在美國附加關稅中進一步拆解為被課稅及非被課稅貿易額進行探討。有鑒於出口額是以 2010 年第一季為始所計算之累計成長率，因而結果探討將聚焦於COVID-19 流行之前的最後一個時期2020 年第一季，以避免新冠肺炎所帶來的影響干擾研究目標。據估計，中國對美國的出口總額和被課稅出口額分別減少了80.21和67.48個百分點，證實貿易戰對雙邊貿易造成了顯著的負面影響。相反，台灣對美國的出口總額和被課稅出口額分別增加了 29.42 和 29.59 個百分點，顯示美國將某些商品的需求從中國轉移到台灣。最後，本文還提供了對世界其他地區出口變化的證據，其中中國與台灣對美國以外的國家出口額改變分別為-4.34和16.58個百分點。
This paper conducts the synthetic control method (SCM) to verify the causal effects of the US-China trade war on China`s and Taiwan`s export responses.
The main focus is to quantify the trade destruction effect along with the trade diversion effect by assessing changes in export value from China and Taiwan to the US respectively.
The outcome of interest is further decomposed into taxed and non-taxed ones in accordance with commodities being included in additional US tariffs or not.
As results are calculated in accumulated growth rates since 2010q1, the evaluation will specifically focus on the last period before the prevalence of COVID-19 in 2020q1 to avoid concerns over confounding effects brought by the shock of the global pandemic.
It is estimated that China shows 80.21 and 67.48 percentage points less total and taxed export value to the US, suggesting the trade war has caused notable negative impacts on bilateral trade.
參考文獻 Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for com-
parative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program. Jour-
nal of the American statistical Association, 105(490):493–505.
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the syn-
thetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2):495–510.
Alessandro, N. (2019). Trade and trade diversion effects of united states tariffs on china.
UNCTAD Research Paper 37.
Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., and Weinstein, D. E. (2019). The impact of the 2018 tariffs on
prices and welfare. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4):187–210.
Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., and Weinstein, D. E. (2020). Who’s paying for the us tariffs? a
longer-term perspective. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110:541–546.
Athey, S. and Imbens, G. W. (2017). The state of applied econometrics: Causality and
policy evaluation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(2):3–32.
Bown, C. P. (2021). The us–china trade war and phase one agreement. Journal of Policy
Modeling, 43(4):805–843.
Bown, C. P. (2022). How covid-19 medical supply shortages led to extraordinary trade and
industrial policy. Asian Economic Policy Review, 17(1):114–135.
Cavallo, A., Gopinath, G., Neiman, B., and Tang, J. (2021). Tariff pass-through at the
border and at the store: Evidence from us trade policy. American Economic Review:
Insights, 3(1):19–34.
Chandra, P. (2016). Impact of temporary trade barriers: Evidence from china. China Eco-
nomic Review, 38:24–48.
Cheng, L., Mi, Z., Coffman, D., Meng, J., and Chang, D. (2021). Destruction and deflec-
tion: Evidence from american antidumping actions against china. Structural Change and
Economic Dynamics, 57:203–213.
Cigna, S., Meinen, P., Schulte, P., and Steinhoff, N. (2022). The impact of us tariffs against
china on us imports: Evidence for trade diversion? Economic Inquiry, 60(1):162–173.
Dinlersoz, E. and Dogan, C. (2010). Tariffs versus anti-dumping duties. International
Review of Economics and Finance, 19:436–451.
Fajgelbaum, P., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., Khandelwal, A., and Taglioni, D. (2021).
The us-china trade war and global reallocations. National Bureau of Economic Research,
Working Paper 29562.
Fajgelbaum, P. and Khandelwal, A. (2021). The economic impacts of the us-china trade
war. Annual Review of Economics, 14:205–228.
Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., and Khandelwal, A. K. (2020). The
return to protectionism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1):1–55.
Hsieh, W.-J. (2020). Implications of the us–china trade war for taiwan. Asian Economic
Papers, 19(1):61–81.
Lee, M., Park, D., and Saravia, A. (2017). Trade effects of us antidumping actions against
china. Asian Economic Journal, 31(1):3–16.
Li, M., Balistreri, E. J., and Zhang, W. (2020). The us–china trade war: Tariff data and
general equilibrium analysis. Journal of Asian Economics, 69:101–216.
Liu, X. and Shi, H. (2019). Anti-dumping duty circumvention through trade rerouting:
Evidence from chinese exporters. The World Economy, 42(5):1427–1466.
McShane, M. B. (2021). The escalating us/china trade war and its indirect impact on trade:
Evidence for trade diversion. Master Thesis, University of Groningen.
Mukherjee, S. (2020). Trade diversion since the u.s.-china trade war. Online available at:
https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/trade-diversion.pdf. (accessed:
2020/06/02).
Shen, G. and Fu, X. (2014). The trade effects of us anti-dumping actions against china
post-wto entry. The World Economy, 37(1):86–105.
Shen, G., Wang, P., and Xu, Y. (2021). Trade destruction and deflection effects of us-china
trade frictions on china’s tariff-targeted products. The World Economy, 44(7):2076–2106.
Tu, X., Du, Y., Lu, Y., and Lou, C. (2020). Us-china trade war: Is winter coming for global
trade? Journal of Chinese Political Science, 25(2):199–24
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
109266002
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109266002
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 楊子霆zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yang, Tsu-Tingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳欣誼zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Hsin-Yien_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳欣誼zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Hsin-Yien_US
dc.date (日期) 2022en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2022 15:53:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Sep-2022 15:53:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2022 15:53:05 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109266002en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141869-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 109266002zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文採用合成控制法（SCM）驗證美中貿易戰對中國與台灣的出口反應之因果關係。主要關注點為中國與台灣對美國的出口額變化以量化貿易破壞效果及貿易轉移效果，出口額將根據商品是否包含在美國附加關稅中進一步拆解為被課稅及非被課稅貿易額進行探討。有鑒於出口額是以 2010 年第一季為始所計算之累計成長率，因而結果探討將聚焦於COVID-19 流行之前的最後一個時期2020 年第一季，以避免新冠肺炎所帶來的影響干擾研究目標。據估計，中國對美國的出口總額和被課稅出口額分別減少了80.21和67.48個百分點，證實貿易戰對雙邊貿易造成了顯著的負面影響。相反，台灣對美國的出口總額和被課稅出口額分別增加了 29.42 和 29.59 個百分點，顯示美國將某些商品的需求從中國轉移到台灣。最後，本文還提供了對世界其他地區出口變化的證據，其中中國與台灣對美國以外的國家出口額改變分別為-4.34和16.58個百分點。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper conducts the synthetic control method (SCM) to verify the causal effects of the US-China trade war on China`s and Taiwan`s export responses.
The main focus is to quantify the trade destruction effect along with the trade diversion effect by assessing changes in export value from China and Taiwan to the US respectively.
The outcome of interest is further decomposed into taxed and non-taxed ones in accordance with commodities being included in additional US tariffs or not.
As results are calculated in accumulated growth rates since 2010q1, the evaluation will specifically focus on the last period before the prevalence of COVID-19 in 2020q1 to avoid concerns over confounding effects brought by the shock of the global pandemic.
It is estimated that China shows 80.21 and 67.48 percentage points less total and taxed export value to the US, suggesting the trade war has caused notable negative impacts on bilateral trade.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 Introduction 1
2 Background 3
2.1 An overview of the US–China Trade War 3
2.2 The US-China-Taiwan trading relation 5
3 Literature Review 8
3.1 Trade effects of import barriers 8
3.2 Macroeconomic effects of the US-China trade war 10
4 Empirical Method 12
4.1 The Synthetic Control Method 14
5 Data and Samples 16
6 Results 18
6.1 Synthetic Control Estimates 18
6.1.1 Model 1: China’s growth rate of export value to the US 18
6.1.2 Model 2: Taiwan’s growth rate of export value to the US 21
6.2 Statistical Inferences 24
6.3 Robustness Check 25
7 Export responses to the rest of the world 27
8 Conclusion 30
References 33
A Appendix 36		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2903396 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109266002en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美中貿易戰zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 合成控制法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易破壞效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易轉移效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) US-China trade waren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) synthetic control methoden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) trade destruction effecten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) trade diversion effecten_US
dc.title (題名) 美中貿易戰對中國與台灣的出口影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The effect of US-China trade war on export: evidence from China and Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for com-
parative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program. Jour-
nal of the American statistical Association, 105(490):493–505.
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the syn-
thetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2):495–510.
Alessandro, N. (2019). Trade and trade diversion effects of united states tariffs on china.
UNCTAD Research Paper 37.
Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., and Weinstein, D. E. (2019). The impact of the 2018 tariffs on
prices and welfare. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4):187–210.
Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., and Weinstein, D. E. (2020). Who’s paying for the us tariffs? a
longer-term perspective. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110:541–546.
Athey, S. and Imbens, G. W. (2017). The state of applied econometrics: Causality and
policy evaluation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(2):3–32.
Bown, C. P. (2021). The us–china trade war and phase one agreement. Journal of Policy
Modeling, 43(4):805–843.
Bown, C. P. (2022). How covid-19 medical supply shortages led to extraordinary trade and
industrial policy. Asian Economic Policy Review, 17(1):114–135.
Cavallo, A., Gopinath, G., Neiman, B., and Tang, J. (2021). Tariff pass-through at the
border and at the store: Evidence from us trade policy. American Economic Review:
Insights, 3(1):19–34.
Chandra, P. (2016). Impact of temporary trade barriers: Evidence from china. China Eco-
nomic Review, 38:24–48.
Cheng, L., Mi, Z., Coffman, D., Meng, J., and Chang, D. (2021). Destruction and deflec-
tion: Evidence from american antidumping actions against china. Structural Change and
Economic Dynamics, 57:203–213.
Cigna, S., Meinen, P., Schulte, P., and Steinhoff, N. (2022). The impact of us tariffs against
china on us imports: Evidence for trade diversion? Economic Inquiry, 60(1):162–173.
Dinlersoz, E. and Dogan, C. (2010). Tariffs versus anti-dumping duties. International
Review of Economics and Finance, 19:436–451.
Fajgelbaum, P., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., Khandelwal, A., and Taglioni, D. (2021).
The us-china trade war and global reallocations. National Bureau of Economic Research,
Working Paper 29562.
Fajgelbaum, P. and Khandelwal, A. (2021). The economic impacts of the us-china trade
war. Annual Review of Economics, 14:205–228.
Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., and Khandelwal, A. K. (2020). The
return to protectionism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1):1–55.
Hsieh, W.-J. (2020). Implications of the us–china trade war for taiwan. Asian Economic
Papers, 19(1):61–81.
Lee, M., Park, D., and Saravia, A. (2017). Trade effects of us antidumping actions against
china. Asian Economic Journal, 31(1):3–16.
Li, M., Balistreri, E. J., and Zhang, W. (2020). The us–china trade war: Tariff data and
general equilibrium analysis. Journal of Asian Economics, 69:101–216.
Liu, X. and Shi, H. (2019). Anti-dumping duty circumvention through trade rerouting:
Evidence from chinese exporters. The World Economy, 42(5):1427–1466.
McShane, M. B. (2021). The escalating us/china trade war and its indirect impact on trade:
Evidence for trade diversion. Master Thesis, University of Groningen.
Mukherjee, S. (2020). Trade diversion since the u.s.-china trade war. Online available at:
https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/trade-diversion.pdf. (accessed:
2020/06/02).
Shen, G. and Fu, X. (2014). The trade effects of us anti-dumping actions against china
post-wto entry. The World Economy, 37(1):86–105.
Shen, G., Wang, P., and Xu, Y. (2021). Trade destruction and deflection effects of us-china
trade frictions on china’s tariff-targeted products. The World Economy, 44(7):2076–2106.
Tu, X., Du, Y., Lu, Y., and Lou, C. (2020). Us-china trade war: Is winter coming for global
trade? Journal of Chinese Political Science, 25(2):199–24		zh_TW
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202201377en_US