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題名 台灣地區陸域風力發電之潛力分析：利用機器學習及地理資訊系統評估
The Onshore Wind Power Potential in Taiwan: An Assessment Using Machine Learning and Geographic Information System作者 常春麗
Haydee, Partida Castillo Laura貢獻者 李慧琳
Huey-Lin Lee
常春麗
Partida Castillo Laura Haydee關鍵詞 風能潛力評估
地理資訊系統
機器學習
wind energy potential assessment
geographic information systems
machine learning日期 2022 上傳時間 2-Sep-2022 15:53:19 (UTC+8) 摘要 本論文試圖處理一個研究缺口：由於台灣在風力發電方面的發展相對較新，本研究探討未來發展風能作為台灣重要能源的可能性。這方面的研究對於電力能源安全政策具有參考價值，因為台灣政府決定停止使用核電和尋求更環保的能源。台灣的地理條件優越，而且盛行風充足，兩者皆是風力發電的潛在來源。本研究的主要分析方法是地理資訊系統 (GIS) 和機器學習模型Prophet。GIS用於找出風速佳和風能較充足的區域，以便能夠充分利用那些特定區域的風能，並且將其轉化為能源。GIS結果顯示台灣海峽是風力來源最充足的區域，這區域位於台灣本島的西海岸，亦是台灣電力公司陸域型風力發電場之所在地。藉由Prophet的預測，我們分析了這17個陸域型風力發電場自2017年1月至2022年2月的風力發電量。我們的研究結果顯示在冬季期間風力發電量達到最高，而這些風力發電量主要產自建置在台灣海峽沿岸地區之風力發電場。Prophet模型的預測結果顯示，自 2017年到2023年，風力發電呈現持續增長的趨勢。本研究的焦點為陸域型風力發電，但我們也簡要地探討建設離岸風力發電場所帶來的環境影響，這是本地環保組織所高度關注的面向，也是影響未來風力發電場建置的重要因素。
This thesis is an attempt to address a gap in the research: since Taiwanese wind energy development is relatively new, this research explores the possibility of future development of wind as an important energy resource for Taiwan. This is of particular interest due to the Taiwanese government’s decision to cease the use of nuclear power and to seek more environmentally-sound sources of energy. Taiwan has excellent geographical features and an abundance of prevailing winds, both of which serve as potential sources of wind power. Our primary methods of analysis are Geographic Information System (GIS) and Prophet, a machine learning model. GIS is used to identify the areas where wind speed and wind power are more abundant so as to be able to fully exploit a specific region`s wind capacity and transform it into energy. GIS results indicate that the Taiwan Strait is the area with most abundant wind sources, and it is on the west coast where Taipower’s onshore wind farms are located. With Prophet, we analyzed the wind energy production of these 17 onshore wind farms from January 2017 to February 2022. Our findings show that wind energy production is highest during the winter, from the wind farms set up in the area with more abundant wind sources along the Taiwan Strait. The Prophet model suggests a constantly increasing trend in wind energy generation from 2017 to 2023. This study focuses on onshore wind energy production and uncovers other findings beyond our analysis. We also briefly explored the environmental impact brought about by the construction of offshore wind farms, about which local environmental groups are highly concerned.參考文獻 4C Offshore TGS Company. (2022). Offshore Wind Farms in Taiwan. 4C Offshore. https://www.4coffshore.com/windfarms/taiwan/Ai, C., & Hsu, E. (2022, April 15). Taiwan world’s 16th largest trading economy in 2021: MOF. 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國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
109266015資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109266015 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 李慧琳 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huey-Lin Lee en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 常春麗 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Partida Castillo Laura Haydee en_US dc.creator (作者) 常春麗 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Haydee, Partida Castillo Laura en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2022 15:53:19 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2022 15:53:19 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2022 15:53:19 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109266015 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141870 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109266015 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文試圖處理一個研究缺口：由於台灣在風力發電方面的發展相對較新，本研究探討未來發展風能作為台灣重要能源的可能性。這方面的研究對於電力能源安全政策具有參考價值，因為台灣政府決定停止使用核電和尋求更環保的能源。台灣的地理條件優越，而且盛行風充足，兩者皆是風力發電的潛在來源。本研究的主要分析方法是地理資訊系統 (GIS) 和機器學習模型Prophet。GIS用於找出風速佳和風能較充足的區域，以便能夠充分利用那些特定區域的風能，並且將其轉化為能源。GIS結果顯示台灣海峽是風力來源最充足的區域，這區域位於台灣本島的西海岸，亦是台灣電力公司陸域型風力發電場之所在地。藉由Prophet的預測，我們分析了這17個陸域型風力發電場自2017年1月至2022年2月的風力發電量。我們的研究結果顯示在冬季期間風力發電量達到最高，而這些風力發電量主要產自建置在台灣海峽沿岸地區之風力發電場。Prophet模型的預測結果顯示，自 2017年到2023年，風力發電呈現持續增長的趨勢。本研究的焦點為陸域型風力發電，但我們也簡要地探討建設離岸風力發電場所帶來的環境影響，這是本地環保組織所高度關注的面向，也是影響未來風力發電場建置的重要因素。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis is an attempt to address a gap in the research: since Taiwanese wind energy development is relatively new, this research explores the possibility of future development of wind as an important energy resource for Taiwan. This is of particular interest due to the Taiwanese government’s decision to cease the use of nuclear power and to seek more environmentally-sound sources of energy. Taiwan has excellent geographical features and an abundance of prevailing winds, both of which serve as potential sources of wind power. Our primary methods of analysis are Geographic Information System (GIS) and Prophet, a machine learning model. GIS is used to identify the areas where wind speed and wind power are more abundant so as to be able to fully exploit a specific region`s wind capacity and transform it into energy. GIS results indicate that the Taiwan Strait is the area with most abundant wind sources, and it is on the west coast where Taipower’s onshore wind farms are located. With Prophet, we analyzed the wind energy production of these 17 onshore wind farms from January 2017 to February 2022. Our findings show that wind energy production is highest during the winter, from the wind farms set up in the area with more abundant wind sources along the Taiwan Strait. The Prophet model suggests a constantly increasing trend in wind energy generation from 2017 to 2023. This study focuses on onshore wind energy production and uncovers other findings beyond our analysis. We also briefly explored the environmental impact brought about by the construction of offshore wind farms, about which local environmental groups are highly concerned. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Abstract IIChapter 1 Introduction 1Chapter 2 Literature Review 52.1 The development of the wind industry in Taiwan 52.1.1 Geography 52.1.2 Economy 62.1.3 Energy and government policies 72.1.4 Onshore Wind Farms 112.1.5 Offshore Wind Farms 142.2 Current global wind power capacity 152.2.1 Case Study: Europe 202.2.2 Case: Southeast Asia 212.3 Lessons learned from wind energy development in various nations 232.3.1 Denmark 232.3.2 Germany 252.3.3 Incentives for feed-in tariffs lessons for Taiwan from the German experience 262.3.4 The U.S. 272.3.5 China 28Chapter 3 Methodology and Results 303.1 Taiwan’s Geographic Advantages in Wind Power 303.2 Machine Learning approach 373.3 Prophet 383.3.1 Prophet Model 383.3.2 Prophet results and analysis 403.3.3 Comparison of results with real data and limitations 46Chapter 4 Discussion 494.1 Traditional approach 494.2 Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) 494.3 Fuzzy Neural Network model 504.4 Taipower wind forecasting systems 514.5 Prophet 524.6 Additional considerations 534.6.1 Energy supply and consumption in Taiwan 544.6.2 Environmental concerns 564.6.3 Consequences of development 594.6.4 Climate change impact on wind sources 60Chapter 5 Conclusions 62References 64Appendices 74 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3773448 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109266015 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 風能潛力評估 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地理資訊系統 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 機器學習 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) wind energy potential assessment en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) geographic information systems en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) machine learning en_US dc.title (題名) 台灣地區陸域風力發電之潛力分析：利用機器學習及地理資訊系統評估 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Onshore Wind Power Potential in Taiwan: An Assessment Using Machine Learning and Geographic Information System en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4C Offshore TGS Company. 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