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題名 美國低估中共威脅之成因(2001-2017)
Why Has the United States Underestimated the Threat of China, 2001-2017?作者 施竣耀
Shih, Jyun-Yao貢獻者 丁樹範
Ding, Shu- Fan
施竣耀
Shih, Jyun-Yao關鍵詞 美國決策過程
美國國家安全政策
美國對華政策
美中關係
威脅評估
U.S. decision-making process
U.S. national security policy
U.S. policy toward China
U.S.-China relations
Threat assessment日期 2022 上傳時間 5-Oct-2022 09:34:36 (UTC+8) 摘要 摘要2017年《美國國家安全戰略報告》宣布將中共視為「戰略競爭者」後，形同承認過去低估中共對美國的威脅。本文嘗試解釋，為何在小布希與歐巴馬兩任總統任內，雖已經發現中共威脅美國利益，卻依然沒有採取行動。本文認為是後冷戰更為複雜的國際環境所致。特別是威脅的種類多元化與威脅特性複雜化。而多樣化的威脅轉移美國對中共的注意力。另一方面，美國對中共的威脅評估也日益複雜，敵我難分。導致小布希與歐巴馬雖然發現中共對美國的威脅，然而卻因為國際環境的影響而低估中共的威脅。
AbstractAfter the 2017 National Security Strategy Report announced that it regarded the CCP as a “strategic competitor,＂ it was an admission that it had underestimated the CCP`s threat to the United States in the past. This article attempts to explain why, during the two presidencies of Bush Jr. and Obama, it has been found that the CCP threatens the interests of the United States, but the threat of the CCP is still underestimated. This article argues that it is caused by the post-Cold War international environment, which is more complex than the Cold War period. In particular, the types of threats are diversified and the characteristics of threats are complicated. And the threat of diversification diverts American attention from the CCP. On the other hand, the U.S. threat assessment of the CCP has become increasingly complex, and the enemy is indistinguishable. As a result, although Bush and Obama discovered the threat of the CCP to the United States, they underestimated the threat of the CCP because of the impact of the international environment.參考文獻 參考文獻一、中文部分（一）專書尹慶耀，1994。《蘇維埃大國的消亡》。臺北：五南出版社。尹慶耀，2000。《中共對外關係史料（上）》。臺北：作者自印。王高成，2005。《柯林頓政府對中共外交戰略》。臺北：五南出版社。石之瑜，1995。《大陸問題研究》。臺北：三民書局。何清漣，2019 。《紅色滲透：中國媒體的全球擴張的真相》。臺北：讀書共和國。吳玉山，1995。《共產世界的變遷—四個共黨政權的比較》。臺北：東大圖書出版社。吳玉山，1997。《抗衡與扈從—兩岸關係新詮：從前蘇聯看臺灣與大陸間的關係》。臺北市：正中書局。宋強、張藏藏、喬邊著，1996。《中國可以說不》。臺北：人間出版社。周建明、張曙光著，2002。《美國安全解讀》。北京：新華出版社。明居正，2013。《大美霸權的浮現：後冷戰時期大國政治的邏輯》。臺北：五南。東鳥，2013。《失控的正當性：揭密史諾登背後的超規模全球監聽計畫》。臺北：上旗資訊。林中斌，1999。《核霸：透視跨世紀中共戰略武力》。臺北：學生書局。林中斌，2005。《以智取勝：國防兩岸事務》。臺北：全球防衛雜誌。倪世雄、劉泳濤主編，2001。《美國問題研究第一輯》。北京：時事出版社。郝雨凡、張燕冬，2000，《無形的手：與美國中國問題專家點評中美關係》，北京：新華出版社。高長，2019 。《美中貿易戰其實才剛開打》。臺北：時報出版。楊之遠，2013。《非傳統安全議題對我國之衝擊評估與因應》。臺北：財團法人中技社。（二）專書譯著Aaron L. Friedberg，溫洽溢譯，2014。《美國回得了亞洲嗎？》（A Contest for Supremacy）。臺北：遠流。Abram N. Shulsky&Gary J. 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The Furure of American Foreign Policy.Peking：Jointly Published by Peking University Press and Thomson Learning. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
107260002資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107260002 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 丁樹範 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Ding, Shu- Fan en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 施竣耀 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Shih, Jyun-Yao en_US dc.creator (作者) 施竣耀 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Shih, Jyun-Yao en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Oct-2022 09:34:36 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Oct-2022 09:34:36 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Oct-2022 09:34:36 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107260002 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/142203 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 東亞研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107260002 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 摘要2017年《美國國家安全戰略報告》宣布將中共視為「戰略競爭者」後，形同承認過去低估中共對美國的威脅。本文嘗試解釋，為何在小布希與歐巴馬兩任總統任內，雖已經發現中共威脅美國利益，卻依然沒有採取行動。本文認為是後冷戰更為複雜的國際環境所致。特別是威脅的種類多元化與威脅特性複雜化。而多樣化的威脅轉移美國對中共的注意力。另一方面，美國對中共的威脅評估也日益複雜，敵我難分。導致小布希與歐巴馬雖然發現中共對美國的威脅，然而卻因為國際環境的影響而低估中共的威脅。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) AbstractAfter the 2017 National Security Strategy Report announced that it regarded the CCP as a “strategic competitor,＂ it was an admission that it had underestimated the CCP`s threat to the United States in the past. This article attempts to explain why, during the two presidencies of Bush Jr. and Obama, it has been found that the CCP threatens the interests of the United States, but the threat of the CCP is still underestimated. This article argues that it is caused by the post-Cold War international environment, which is more complex than the Cold War period. In particular, the types of threats are diversified and the characteristics of threats are complicated. And the threat of diversification diverts American attention from the CCP. On the other hand, the U.S. threat assessment of the CCP has become increasingly complex, and the enemy is indistinguishable. As a result, although Bush and Obama discovered the threat of the CCP to the United States, they underestimated the threat of the CCP because of the impact of the international environment. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 目次第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 名詞界定 9第三節 研究方法與研究限制 11第二章 現有文獻與侷限 13第一節 思維誤導說 15第二節 逐利說 27第三節 戰略欺騙說 36第四節 現有文獻的爭點與共同缺陷 45第三章、分析架構 49第一節 冷戰後的國際秩序的形成 49第二節 美國現有的威脅評估機制 64第三節 後冷戰時期戰略環境對美國進行威脅評估之衝擊與影響 77第四節 冷戰後國際環境對中共威脅評估之衝擊 105第四章、國際環境對小布希低估中共威脅的解釋 111第一節 小布希時期美國對中共崛起的警告（2001-2008） 112第二節 冷戰後國際環境對小布希低估中共威脅的影響 131第三節 小結 171第五章、國際環境對歐巴馬總統對中共威脅評估的影響 173第一節 歐巴馬時期美國各界對中共的警告（2009-2017） 174第二節 國際環境變化對歐巴馬總統評估中共威脅的影響 205第三節 小結 269第六章、結論 271第一節 研究發現 273第二節 研究展望 274參考文獻 276 zh_TW dc.format.extent 9855844 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107260002 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國決策過程 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國國家安全政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美國對華政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美中關係 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 威脅評估 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S. decision-making process en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S. national security policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S. policy toward China en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S.-China relations en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Threat assessment en_US dc.title (題名) 美國低估中共威脅之成因(2001-2017) zh_TW dc.title (題名) Why Has the United States Underestimated the Threat of China, 2001-2017? en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考文獻一、中文部分（一）專書尹慶耀，1994。《蘇維埃大國的消亡》。臺北：五南出版社。尹慶耀，2000。《中共對外關係史料（上）》。臺北：作者自印。王高成，2005。《柯林頓政府對中共外交戰略》。臺北：五南出版社。石之瑜，1995。《大陸問題研究》。臺北：三民書局。何清漣，2019 。《紅色滲透：中國媒體的全球擴張的真相》。臺北：讀書共和國。吳玉山，1995。《共產世界的變遷—四個共黨政權的比較》。臺北：東大圖書出版社。吳玉山，1997。《抗衡與扈從—兩岸關係新詮：從前蘇聯看臺灣與大陸間的關係》。臺北市：正中書局。宋強、張藏藏、喬邊著，1996。《中國可以說不》。臺北：人間出版社。周建明、張曙光著，2002。《美國安全解讀》。北京：新華出版社。明居正，2013。《大美霸權的浮現：後冷戰時期大國政治的邏輯》。臺北：五南。東鳥，2013。《失控的正當性：揭密史諾登背後的超規模全球監聽計畫》。臺北：上旗資訊。林中斌，1999。《核霸：透視跨世紀中共戰略武力》。臺北：學生書局。林中斌，2005。《以智取勝：國防兩岸事務》。臺北：全球防衛雜誌。倪世雄、劉泳濤主編，2001。《美國問題研究第一輯》。北京：時事出版社。郝雨凡、張燕冬，2000，《無形的手：與美國中國問題專家點評中美關係》，北京：新華出版社。高長，2019 。《美中貿易戰其實才剛開打》。臺北：時報出版。楊之遠，2013。《非傳統安全議題對我國之衝擊評估與因應》。臺北：財團法人中技社。（二）專書譯著Aaron L. 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