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題名 台灣再生能源指數型保險之研究
Essays on index-based renewable energy insurance for Taiwan
作者 廖士傑
Liao, Shih-Chieh
貢獻者 張士傑
Chang, Shih-Chieh
廖士傑
Liao, Shih-Chieh
關鍵詞 再生能源
指數型保險
離岸風力發電場
太陽能發電廠
天氣時機
天氣停工
Renewable energy
Index-based insurance
Offshore wind farm
Solar PV power plant
Weather window
Weather downtime
日期 2022
上傳時間 2-Dec-2022 15:17:33 (UTC+8)
摘要 本論文由三篇指數型保險的研究，運用於台灣再生能源風險管理相關議題所構成。台灣政府規劃於2025年，再生能源的發電量可以達到供應總發電需求的百分之二十。達成這個目標，需要加速發展運用再生能源發電，並達到一定的規模才可能實現。減少燃煤，增加天然氣與再生能源的發電比重，是台灣的能源政策，並完成非核家園的理想。離岸風力與太陽能發電對於台灣的再生能源發展，扮演至關重要的角色。離岸風力預計在2021至2025年間併網發電5.7GW，於2026至2035年間，另規劃再增加10GW併網發電量。太陽能規劃在2025年達到14.2GW發電量。
再生能源專案的發電機組壽命約20至25年，在整個專案過程中，會一直面臨不同的動態風險，所以其相對應的保險要求具專業且複雜度高。不論是開發商、承包商、投資者與貸款人都需要有相當程度的知識並了解其所面臨的風險特性與程度。指數型保險設計是多元的，可以運用在分散再生能源初期的融資風險，也可以擴及整個運營階段。再生能源所產生的發電量多寡，主要是依靠天然的可再生來源。因此，風速太弱或是太陽輻射度不足，皆會造成再生能源發電營收的波動。因為可再生資源有天然的間歇特性，投資者與貸款人一般評估再生能源專案的穩定獲利風險度較高，因此安排專案融資的難度也較高。
指數型保險的設計可以運用於管理再生能源發電量的波動風險，以第三方機構所提供天氣指數資料，按照離岸風力發電場的場址或太陽能發電廠的廠址與配置發電機組能量，利用歷史資料庫去模擬再生能源波動所造成的發電量波動風險，並進而訂出保險觸發等賠付條件。第一章的指數型保險設計，著重在承保離岸風力發電量的波動風險，而第二章的指數型保險內容，運用在管理太陽能發電量的波動風險。
運營階段在離岸風力發電專案的總成本支出，佔有相當大的比例。離岸風電工作船舶在執行運營活動時，必須考量可執行度與安全性。若受到氣候不佳因素的影響，例如浪高超過船舶的設計限制等，會導致運營作業無法執行，進而造成不同程度的費用負擔。第三章的研究內容關於浪高風險對離岸風電工作船舶所造成的停工損失，藉由指數型保險的設計，運用保險的安排，藉以分散因為天氣風險導致停工的費用損失。
This dissertation includes three essays regarding index-based insurance applications for renewable energy. Renewable energy is crucial to secure a clean energy transition and help to limit global warming. Taiwan plans to generate 20% of its total energy capacity from renewable energy by 2025, and the share of renewable sources in the power sector needs to be rapidly scaled up. The overall energy policy calls for significantly less coal, more LNG, increased renewables, and a homeland with nuclear-free. Offshore wind energy and solar PV power play an important role; Taiwan will add 5.7GW of allocated already offshore wind power to the grid between 2021 and 2025. Between 2026-2035, an additional 10GW of offshore wind will be added to the grid. For solar PV power, Taiwan will add 14.2 GW by 2025.
Renewable energy projects face dynamic risk exposure for different risks throughout their life cycle that can contribute to a complex insurance environment requiring detailed knowledge and understanding from stakeholders such as developers, contractors, investors, and lenders. Index-based insurance can provide coverage opportunities for the complete life cycle of renewable energy projects from the beginning financing stage to operational exposures.
Renewable energy generation is dependent upon natural resources. Therefore, excess or lack of wind speeds and solar radiation shortfalls can lead to revenue variability. In addition, because of intermittency, investors and lenders consider renewable energy projects risky investments and can face difficulties in securing financing. Index-based solutions can cover the renewable energy production volatility. Triggers based on objective and third-party data customized to the insured`s site, offshore wind farm or solar PV power plant generation technology, and historical index dataset, index insurance can protect against loss of energy production due to the volatility of natural resources. Chapters 1 and 2 design index insurance products to manage the volatility risk for offshore wind and solar PV power production.
Operation and maintenance (O&M) activities are a big part of the total costs for offshore wind farms. However, weather-related risks such as high waves can result in time spent waiting out unfavorable weather conditions until planned works can recommence for safety reasons. That causes a costly impact on O&M. Chapter 3 designs index insurance to manage the logistical and financial risks caused by the weather downtime for offshore wind farm O&M activities.
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
105358503
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105358503
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張士傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chang, Shih-Chiehen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 廖士傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Liao, Shih-Chiehen_US
dc.creator (作者) 廖士傑zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Liao, Shih-Chiehen_US
dc.date (日期) 2022en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Dec-2022 15:17:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Dec-2022 15:17:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Dec-2022 15:17:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0105358503en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/142628-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 105358503zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文由三篇指數型保險的研究，運用於台灣再生能源風險管理相關議題所構成。台灣政府規劃於2025年，再生能源的發電量可以達到供應總發電需求的百分之二十。達成這個目標，需要加速發展運用再生能源發電，並達到一定的規模才可能實現。減少燃煤，增加天然氣與再生能源的發電比重，是台灣的能源政策，並完成非核家園的理想。離岸風力與太陽能發電對於台灣的再生能源發展，扮演至關重要的角色。離岸風力預計在2021至2025年間併網發電5.7GW，於2026至2035年間，另規劃再增加10GW併網發電量。太陽能規劃在2025年達到14.2GW發電量。
再生能源專案的發電機組壽命約20至25年，在整個專案過程中，會一直面臨不同的動態風險，所以其相對應的保險要求具專業且複雜度高。不論是開發商、承包商、投資者與貸款人都需要有相當程度的知識並了解其所面臨的風險特性與程度。指數型保險設計是多元的，可以運用在分散再生能源初期的融資風險，也可以擴及整個運營階段。再生能源所產生的發電量多寡，主要是依靠天然的可再生來源。因此，風速太弱或是太陽輻射度不足，皆會造成再生能源發電營收的波動。因為可再生資源有天然的間歇特性，投資者與貸款人一般評估再生能源專案的穩定獲利風險度較高，因此安排專案融資的難度也較高。
指數型保險的設計可以運用於管理再生能源發電量的波動風險，以第三方機構所提供天氣指數資料，按照離岸風力發電場的場址或太陽能發電廠的廠址與配置發電機組能量，利用歷史資料庫去模擬再生能源波動所造成的發電量波動風險，並進而訂出保險觸發等賠付條件。第一章的指數型保險設計，著重在承保離岸風力發電量的波動風險，而第二章的指數型保險內容，運用在管理太陽能發電量的波動風險。
運營階段在離岸風力發電專案的總成本支出，佔有相當大的比例。離岸風電工作船舶在執行運營活動時，必須考量可執行度與安全性。若受到氣候不佳因素的影響，例如浪高超過船舶的設計限制等，會導致運營作業無法執行，進而造成不同程度的費用負擔。第三章的研究內容關於浪高風險對離岸風電工作船舶所造成的停工損失，藉由指數型保險的設計，運用保險的安排，藉以分散因為天氣風險導致停工的費用損失。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This dissertation includes three essays regarding index-based insurance applications for renewable energy. Renewable energy is crucial to secure a clean energy transition and help to limit global warming. Taiwan plans to generate 20% of its total energy capacity from renewable energy by 2025, and the share of renewable sources in the power sector needs to be rapidly scaled up. The overall energy policy calls for significantly less coal, more LNG, increased renewables, and a homeland with nuclear-free. Offshore wind energy and solar PV power play an important role; Taiwan will add 5.7GW of allocated already offshore wind power to the grid between 2021 and 2025. Between 2026-2035, an additional 10GW of offshore wind will be added to the grid. For solar PV power, Taiwan will add 14.2 GW by 2025.
Renewable energy projects face dynamic risk exposure for different risks throughout their life cycle that can contribute to a complex insurance environment requiring detailed knowledge and understanding from stakeholders such as developers, contractors, investors, and lenders. Index-based insurance can provide coverage opportunities for the complete life cycle of renewable energy projects from the beginning financing stage to operational exposures.
Renewable energy generation is dependent upon natural resources. Therefore, excess or lack of wind speeds and solar radiation shortfalls can lead to revenue variability. In addition, because of intermittency, investors and lenders consider renewable energy projects risky investments and can face difficulties in securing financing. Index-based solutions can cover the renewable energy production volatility. Triggers based on objective and third-party data customized to the insured`s site, offshore wind farm or solar PV power plant generation technology, and historical index dataset, index insurance can protect against loss of energy production due to the volatility of natural resources. Chapters 1 and 2 design index insurance products to manage the volatility risk for offshore wind and solar PV power production.
Operation and maintenance (O&M) activities are a big part of the total costs for offshore wind farms. However, weather-related risks such as high waves can result in time spent waiting out unfavorable weather conditions until planned works can recommence for safety reasons. That causes a costly impact on O&M. Chapter 3 designs index insurance to manage the logistical and financial risks caused by the weather downtime for offshore wind farm O&M activities.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 ii
Abstract iii
Contents v
List of Tables vi
List of Figures vii
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
Chapter 2: Index Insurance Application for Managing the Energy Volatility Risk for Offshore Wind Farms 20
1 Study Site, Data, and Preprocessing 20
1.1 The Changhua Demonstration Offshore Wind Farm 20
1.2 Wind Speed Data and Analysis 22
1.3 Offshore Wind Power Analysis 27
2 The Modeling and Forecasting Energy Production for Offshore Wind Farms 29
3 Renewable AEP Index Insurance 35
4 Pure Premium AEP Index Insurance Rates 38
5 Discussion 43
6 Appendix 46
Chapter 3: Index Renewable Energy Insurance for Solar Photovoltaic Power Plants 64
1 Study Plant, Data, and Analysis 64
1.1 The solar PV power plant 64
1.2 Solar irradiation data and GHI analysis 64
2 Modeling and Forecasting Energy Production 71
3 Insurance Coverage for the Risk of Solar Irradiation Volatility 75
4 Estimation of the Pure Premium Rate for the Index Insurance Design 79
5 Discussion 87
6 Appendix 92
Chapter 4: Index Insurance for Managing Offshore Wind O&M Weather Downtime Risk 93
1 Wave Height Data and Weather Window Analysis 93
2 Persistence Analysis for Offshore O&M Activities 100
3 Index Insurance Design for Offshore Wind Weather Downtime Risk and the Pure Premium Pricing 102
4 Appendix 106
Chapter 5: Conclusion 108
Reference 114		zh_TW
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dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105358503en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 再生能源zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 指數型保險zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 離岸風力發電場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 太陽能發電廠zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 天氣時機zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 天氣停工zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Renewable energyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Index-based insuranceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Offshore wind farmen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Solar PV power planten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Weather windowen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Weather downtimeen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣再生能源指數型保險之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Essays on index-based renewable energy insurance for Taiwanen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202201695en_US