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題名 美中貿易戰對臺灣製造業出口之影響
The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on Exports of the Manufacturing Industry of Taiwan作者 尹德中
Yin, Der-Jong貢獻者 吳文傑<br>彭喜樞
Wu, Wen-Chieh<br>Peng, Shi-Shu
尹德中
Yin, Der-Jong關鍵詞 美中貿易戰
臺灣製造業
資訊電子業
金屬石化業
傳統製造業
海關進口稅則
U.S.-China trade war
Manufacturing industry of Taiwan
Electronics industry
Metalworking & petrochemistry
Traditional manufacturing industry
Customs import tariff日期 2022 上傳時間 2-Dec-2022 15:26:56 (UTC+8) 摘要 在美中相互競爭及保護主義興起下，美國為減少對中國大陸日趨嚴重的貿易逆差、防止智慧財產權遭受侵害，2018年第2季起數度對中國大陸進口產品加徵關稅，中國大陸亦採取相應的報復性關稅回擊，美中經貿關係由摩擦、衝突逐漸激化成貿易戰爭。為探討身處美中產品供應鏈不可或缺一環的臺灣製造業是否受到波及，本研究在假設「臺灣接單、大陸製造、銷售美國」的架構下，挑選2020年第4季臺灣出口至全球貿易額前20名具代表性製造業的橫斷面資料，歸類為資訊電子業、金屬石化業、傳統製造業3類，結合從2015年第1季至2020年第4季的時間序列資料而形成的追蹤資料（Panel Data），分析美中貿易戰前、後臺灣出口至美國貿易額（即被解釋變數）究係上升或下降？並控制一些重要變數，如臺灣出口至中國大陸貿易額、產業分類虛擬變數等，以Limdep軟體中普通最小平方法進行分析。 迴歸結果得出貿易戰發生之後（相對發生之前）：臺灣製造業出口至美國貿易額上升且具顯著性，代表臺灣製造業從中受益；以傳統製造業為比較基準，進一步分析3類，可發現資訊電子業受益程度大於傳統製造業，而金屬石化業受益程度小於傳統製造業且均具顯著性。值得一提的是，臺灣出口至中國大陸貿易額上升會使臺灣出口至美國貿易額下降且具顯著性，意味著臺灣製造業出口中國大陸、臺灣製造業出口美國二者間，由原先的互補關係也演變成替代關係。
With the rise of protectionism and competition between the U.S. and China, the U.S. has levied higher tariffs on imports from China several times since the second quarter of 2018 in order to cut down the trade deficit towards China, prevent the intellectual property rights from being stolen. China has levied retaliatory tariffs accordingly in response. The stages of U.S.-China economic and trade relations went through friction, confrontation, even escalated to trade war. The research aims to study whether the manufacturing industry of Taiwan, which plays a critical role in U.S.-China product supply chains, gets hurt. We assume “Order in Taiwan, manufacture in China, sale to the U.S.”, select the twenty products, which have top-20 values of Taiwan export to the world in the fourth quarter of 2020, as cross-sectional data, and can be classified into 3 categories (electronics industry, metalworking and petrochemistry, traditional manufacturing industry). Combined time-series data covering 24 quarters from 2015 to 2020 to form a panel data, we analyze whether the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. (i.e. dependent variable) increases after the trade war. We control a few important variables, such as the values of Taiwan manufacturing industry export to China, the product dummy variables, etc. The model we used is OLS linear regression. The results are as follows: After the trade war, the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. increase significantly, which indicates the manufacturing industry of Taiwan benefits from it. Use traditional manufacturing industry as a base to analyze 3 categories, we find that electronics industry has benefited more than traditional manufacturing industry, and metalworking & petrochemistry has benefited less than traditional manufacturing industry. Both arguments are statistically significant. Noticeably, the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to China increasing will make the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. decreasing significantly, which indicates the relations between manufacturing industry of Taiwan “export to China” and “export to the U.S.” were initially complements and are now substitutes.參考文獻 一、中文部分 1、江文基、陳孟君 (2020)。2020臺美雙邊貿易協定之展望。經濟前瞻，188，28–32。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh?docid=10190376-202003-202003230009-202003230009-28-32 2、周柏祐 (2014)。影響台灣國際貿易因素之實證研究—以我國主要貿易對象、美國以及歐元區為例[碩士論文，國立政治大學]。國立政治大學博碩士論文全文影像系統。 3、林聰毅 (2018，5月6日)。張忠謀：貿易戰恐波及蘋果供應鏈。聯合新聞網。https://web.archive.org/web/20180506220126/https://udn.com/news/story/7240/3126998 4、洪御豪 (2021)。中美貿易戰對台灣出口貿易的影響[碩士論文，國立中正大學]。臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統。 5、洪培英 (2022，1月20日)。中國政策「川規拜隨」，北京未軟化恐衝擊民主黨期中選舉。信傳媒。https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/31962 6、葉維惇、丁傳倫、廖月波、任之恒、賴庭安 (2018，9月24日)。中美貿易戰因應策略。安侯建業聯合會計師事務所特刊。https://home.kpmg/tw/zh/home/insights/2018/09/China-US-Trade-Conflict-and-Trade-Mitigation-Strategy.html 7、謝順峰、葉國俊 (2019)。美中貿易衝突對臺灣經貿與金融之可能影響與因應。財稅研究，48(1)，110–144。https://www.mof.gov.tw/singlehtml/1434?cntId=82794 二、英文部分 1、Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., & Weinstein, D. E. (2019). The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 187–210. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.187 2、Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England. 3、Bown, C. P. & Crowley, M. A. (2007). Trade Deflection and Trade Depression. Journal of International Economics, 72(1), 176–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.09.005 4、Bergsten, C. F. (2018). China and the United States: The Contest for Global Economic Leadership. China & World Economy, 26(5), 12–37. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12254 5、Chong, T. T. L., Li, X. (2019). Understanding the China–US trade war: causes, economic impact, and the worst-case scenario. Economic and Political Studies, 7(2), 185–202. https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2019.1595328 6、Freund, C., Ferrantino, M., Maliszewska, M., Ruta, M. (2018). Impacts on global trade and income of current trade disputes. Macroeconomics, Trade Investment (MTI) Practice Notes, 2, 1–11. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/685941532023153019/pdf 7、Kapustina, L., Lipková, L., Silin, Y., & Drevalev, A. (2020). US-China Trade War: Causes and Outcomes. SHS Web of Conferences, 73(1), Article No. 01012, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20207301012 8、Nicita, A. (2019). Trade and trade diversion effects of United States tariffs on China. UNCTAD Research Paper No. 37, 1–17. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ser-rp-2019d9_en.pdf 9、Peters, E. D. (2020). The New Triangular Relationship between China, the United States, and Mexico: Implications for Intra-NAFTA Trade. The International Trade Journal, 34(1), 18–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2019.1696256 10、Shibata, H. (1967). The Theory of Economic Unions: A Comparative Analysis of Customs Unions, Free Trade Areas, and Tax Unions. In C. S. Shoup (Ed.). Fiscal Harmonization in Common Markets, Volume I: Theory, 145–264. 11、Steinbock, D. (2018). U.S.-China Trade War and Its Global Impacts. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 4(4), 515–542. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2377740018500318 12、Tu, X., Du, Y., Lu, Y., & Lou, C. (2020). US-China Trade War: Is Winter Coming for Global Trade? Journal of Chinese Political Science,25, 199–240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-020-09659-7 13、Vinogradov, A.O., Salitsky, A.I., Semenova, N.K. (2019). US-China Economic Confrontation: Ideology, Chronology, Meaning. Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 19(1), 35–46. https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-0660-2019-19-1-35-46 14、Yoshida, Y. & Ito, H. (2006). How Do the Asian Economies Compete With Japan in the US Market? Is China Exceptional? A Triangular Trade Approach. Asia Pacific Business Review, 12(3), 285–307. https://doi.org/10.1080/13602380600601570 15、Yang, S. & Martínez-Zarzoso, I. (2014). A Panel Data Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The case of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area. China Economic Review, 29, 138–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2014.04.002 16、Zhou, J. & Latorre, M. C. (2014). How FDI influences the triangular trade pattern among China, East Asia and the U.S.? A CGE analysis of the sector of Electronics in China. Economic Modelling, 44, S77–S88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.04.030 17、Zhou, J. & Latorre, M. C. (2014). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Production Networks between China and East Asia and the Role of the USA and the Rest of the World as Final Markets. Global Economic Review, 43(3), 285–314. https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2014.939212 三、相關網站 1、中華民國統計資訊網 (2021，無日期)。擷取於3月7日，2022。https://www.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=46641&ctNode=1309&mp=4 2、中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網 (2022，無日期)。擷取於2月28日，2022。https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-520-36599-75987-1.html 3、行政院農業委員會 (2001，無日期)。擷取於7月10日，2022。https://www.coa.gov.tw/ws.php?id=972#6 4、行政院主計總處 (2021，無日期)。擷取於3月7日，2022。https://mobile.stat.gov.tw/StandardIndustrialClassificationContent.aspx?RID=11&PID=Mjc=&Level=2 5、財政部關務署關港貿單一窗口 (2013，無日期)。擷取於2月28日，2022。https://portal.sw.nat.gov.tw/APGA/GA30 6、國家發展委員會 (2022，無日期)。擷取於7月10日，2022。https://www.ndc.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=01B17A05A9374683&sms=32ADE0CD4006BBE5&s=2D58DD7349ACB619 7、經濟部國際貿易局中華民國進出口貿易統計 (2016，無日期)。擷取於2月28日，2022。https://cuswebo.trade.gov.tw/FSC3020F/FSC3020F?menuURL=FSC3020F 8、經濟部統計處 (2022，無日期)。擷取於3月27日，2022。https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=7&html=1&menu_id=6726 9、Bureau of Economic Analysis (美國商業部經濟分析局). (2022, n.d.). (Retrieved February 28, 2022, from). https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=99&step=1#reqid=99&step=1&isuri=1 10、Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Dynamics, United Nations (聯合國經濟和社會事務部人口司). (2022, n.d.). (Retrieved April 12, 2022, from). https://population.un.org/wpp/ 11、World Trade Organization (世界貿易組織). (2022, n.d.). (Retrieved February 28, 2022, from). https://tariffdata.wto.org/ReportersAndProducts.aspx 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
106255018資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255018 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑<br>彭喜樞 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Wen-Chieh<br>Peng, Shi-Shu en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 尹德中 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yin, Der-Jong en_US dc.creator (作者) 尹德中 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Yin, Der-Jong en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Dec-2022 15:26:56 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Dec-2022 15:26:56 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Dec-2022 15:26:56 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106255018 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/142682 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106255018 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在美中相互競爭及保護主義興起下，美國為減少對中國大陸日趨嚴重的貿易逆差、防止智慧財產權遭受侵害，2018年第2季起數度對中國大陸進口產品加徵關稅，中國大陸亦採取相應的報復性關稅回擊，美中經貿關係由摩擦、衝突逐漸激化成貿易戰爭。為探討身處美中產品供應鏈不可或缺一環的臺灣製造業是否受到波及，本研究在假設「臺灣接單、大陸製造、銷售美國」的架構下，挑選2020年第4季臺灣出口至全球貿易額前20名具代表性製造業的橫斷面資料，歸類為資訊電子業、金屬石化業、傳統製造業3類，結合從2015年第1季至2020年第4季的時間序列資料而形成的追蹤資料（Panel Data），分析美中貿易戰前、後臺灣出口至美國貿易額（即被解釋變數）究係上升或下降？並控制一些重要變數，如臺灣出口至中國大陸貿易額、產業分類虛擬變數等，以Limdep軟體中普通最小平方法進行分析。 迴歸結果得出貿易戰發生之後（相對發生之前）：臺灣製造業出口至美國貿易額上升且具顯著性，代表臺灣製造業從中受益；以傳統製造業為比較基準，進一步分析3類，可發現資訊電子業受益程度大於傳統製造業，而金屬石化業受益程度小於傳統製造業且均具顯著性。值得一提的是，臺灣出口至中國大陸貿易額上升會使臺灣出口至美國貿易額下降且具顯著性，意味著臺灣製造業出口中國大陸、臺灣製造業出口美國二者間，由原先的互補關係也演變成替代關係。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) With the rise of protectionism and competition between the U.S. and China, the U.S. has levied higher tariffs on imports from China several times since the second quarter of 2018 in order to cut down the trade deficit towards China, prevent the intellectual property rights from being stolen. China has levied retaliatory tariffs accordingly in response. The stages of U.S.-China economic and trade relations went through friction, confrontation, even escalated to trade war. The research aims to study whether the manufacturing industry of Taiwan, which plays a critical role in U.S.-China product supply chains, gets hurt. We assume “Order in Taiwan, manufacture in China, sale to the U.S.”, select the twenty products, which have top-20 values of Taiwan export to the world in the fourth quarter of 2020, as cross-sectional data, and can be classified into 3 categories (electronics industry, metalworking and petrochemistry, traditional manufacturing industry). Combined time-series data covering 24 quarters from 2015 to 2020 to form a panel data, we analyze whether the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. (i.e. dependent variable) increases after the trade war. We control a few important variables, such as the values of Taiwan manufacturing industry export to China, the product dummy variables, etc. The model we used is OLS linear regression. The results are as follows: After the trade war, the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. increase significantly, which indicates the manufacturing industry of Taiwan benefits from it. Use traditional manufacturing industry as a base to analyze 3 categories, we find that electronics industry has benefited more than traditional manufacturing industry, and metalworking & petrochemistry has benefited less than traditional manufacturing industry. Both arguments are statistically significant. Noticeably, the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to China increasing will make the values of manufacturing industry of Taiwan export to the U.S. decreasing significantly, which indicates the relations between manufacturing industry of Taiwan “export to China” and “export to the U.S.” were initially complements and are now substitutes. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機 4 第三節 研究目的 6 第四節 研究限制 7 第五節 研究架構 8 第二章 文獻回顧 9 第一節 貿易理論相關文獻 9 第二節 貿易戰成因相關文獻 12 第三節 貿易戰後果相關文獻 13 第四節 三角貿易或美中臺貿易相關文獻 16 第三章 美中貿易戰發展歷程 20 第四章 臺灣製造業出口現況 26 第一節 臺灣製造業現況 26 第二節 臺灣行業統計分類 29 第五章 研究方法 35 第一節 研究假說 35 第二節 模型設定 36 第三節 資料來源 38 第四節 變數說明與預期符號 39 第六章 實證結果分析 47 第一節 敘述統計分析 47 第二節 迴歸結果分析 48 第七章 結論與建議 54 參考文獻 56 附表 60 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255018 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美中貿易戰 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 臺灣製造業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資訊電子業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 金屬石化業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 傳統製造業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 海關進口稅則 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) U.S.-China trade war en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Manufacturing industry of Taiwan en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Electronics industry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Metalworking & petrochemistry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Traditional manufacturing industry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Customs import tariff en_US dc.title (題名) 美中貿易戰對臺灣製造業出口之影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on Exports of the Manufacturing Industry of Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分 1、江文基、陳孟君 (2020)。2020臺美雙邊貿易協定之展望。經濟前瞻，188，28–32。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh?docid=10190376-202003-202003230009-202003230009-28-32 2、周柏祐 (2014)。影響台灣國際貿易因素之實證研究—以我國主要貿易對象、美國以及歐元區為例[碩士論文，國立政治大學]。國立政治大學博碩士論文全文影像系統。 3、林聰毅 (2018，5月6日)。張忠謀：貿易戰恐波及蘋果供應鏈。聯合新聞網。https://web.archive.org/web/20180506220126/https://udn.com/news/story/7240/3126998 4、洪御豪 (2021)。中美貿易戰對台灣出口貿易的影響[碩士論文，國立中正大學]。臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統。 5、洪培英 (2022，1月20日)。中國政策「川規拜隨」，北京未軟化恐衝擊民主黨期中選舉。信傳媒。https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/31962 6、葉維惇、丁傳倫、廖月波、任之恒、賴庭安 (2018，9月24日)。中美貿易戰因應策略。安侯建業聯合會計師事務所特刊。https://home.kpmg/tw/zh/home/insights/2018/09/China-US-Trade-Conflict-and-Trade-Mitigation-Strategy.html 7、謝順峰、葉國俊 (2019)。美中貿易衝突對臺灣經貿與金融之可能影響與因應。財稅研究，48(1)，110–144。https://www.mof.gov.tw/singlehtml/1434?cntId=82794 二、英文部分 1、Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., & Weinstein, D. E. (2019). The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 187–210. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.187 2、Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England. 3、Bown, C. P. & Crowley, M. A. (2007). Trade Deflection and Trade Depression. Journal of International Economics, 72(1), 176–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.09.005 4、Bergsten, C. F. (2018). China and the United States: The Contest for Global Economic Leadership. China & World Economy, 26(5), 12–37. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12254 5、Chong, T. T. L., Li, X. (2019). Understanding the China–US trade war: causes, economic impact, and the worst-case scenario. Economic and Political Studies, 7(2), 185–202. https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2019.1595328 6、Freund, C., Ferrantino, M., Maliszewska, M., Ruta, M. (2018). 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