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題名 德國對俄羅斯避險政策之研究(2005-2022)
A Study of Germany’s Hedging Strategy towards Russia(2005-2022)
作者 林錡楓
Lin, Chi-Feng
貢獻者 蘇卓馨
林錡楓
Lin, Chi-Feng
關鍵詞 德國對俄政策
德俄關係
避險策略
俄烏衝突
Germany’s Russia policy
German-Russian relations
Hedging strategy
Russo-Ukrainian conflict
日期 2023
上傳時間 9-Mar-2023 18:10:25 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文旨在探討在俄羅斯—烏克蘭衝突框架下的德國對俄政策。自2014年烏克蘭危機以來至2022年俄國對烏克蘭的入侵，基於德國與俄羅斯的密切關係以及德國在大西洋社群中的領導地位，德國的對俄政策一直都是左右俄烏衝突局勢發展的決定性因素。同時，柏林與莫斯科長年累積下來的經濟與能源合作基礎，加上俄國近年來屢屢破壞民主、人權、法治等價值及日益強勢的對外行為，使得德國前總理安格拉．梅克爾(Angela Merkel)及現任總理奧拉夫．蕭茲(Olaf Scholz)均逐步調整德國的對俄政策，在維護共同利益的同時也防範潛在的安全威脅，因而使德國對俄政策產生了結構現實主義中避險策略之特徵。於此，本文將梳理德國對俄政策之根源及政策形成之脈絡，並以避險理論來分析德國對俄避險政策之發展及其在俄烏衝突框架下的轉變。
This thesis discusses Germany`s Russia policy in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Based on the close relations between Germany and Russia and Germany’s leading role in the Trans-Atlantic community, Germany’s Russia policy has been playing a decisive role in affecting the situation of the conflict from the Ukraine Crisis of 2014 to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Meanwhile, given the complex situation that Berlin and Moscow have been cooperating in the fields of trade, investment, and particularly energy for decades; plus, Russia has been breaching the values of democracy, human rights, and rule-based international order in recent years, the German ex-chancellor Angela Merkel and the current chancellor Olaf Scholz have gradually made some changes on the country’s Russia policy during their tenures. Those changes aim at maintaining common interests but simultaneously preventing potential threats to national security, and as a result attribute the characteristics of the “hedging strategy” of the structural realism to Germany’s Russia policy. This thesis will first probe into the roots of Germany’s Russia policy and how it was shaped during the past decades, then analyze the policy’s development and its changes under the context of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict with the hedging strategy.
參考文獻 一、英文資料
（一）專書
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（二）期刊論文
Alim, Eray. 2022. “Strategic Hedging in the Black Sea: The Case of Turkey versus Russia.” Comparative Strategy, 41(5): 459-482.

Belov, Vladislav. 2022. “A Paradigm Change in Energy Cooperation between Germany and Russia.” Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 92: 512-520.

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二、中文資料
（一）專書
朱宏源，1999，《撰寫博碩士論文實戰手冊》，台北：正中。

吳玉山 ，2009，〈權力不對稱與兩岸關係研究〉，包宗和、吳玉山主編，《重新檢視爭辯中的兩岸關係理論》：31-60。臺北：五南。

林秀雲譯，Barbie, Earl 著，2016，《社會科學研究方法》，台北：雙葉書廊。

崔琳，連弘宜，許菁芸等，2012，〈俄喬衝突前後俄羅斯與北約關係之研究〉，連弘宜，《金磚國家俄羅斯及歐亞地區研究》：40-72，台北：五南。

（二）期刊論文
李超，2022，〈俄烏衝突下的德國安全政策調整〉，《現代國際關係》，2022年06期：12-19。

李微，劉立群，2019，〈烏克蘭危機以來德俄雙軌政策探究〉，《現代國際關係》，2: 18-25。

李樂曾，2015，〈歷史問題與聯邦德國外交政策的選擇—以德法、德波和德以關係為例〉，《德國研究》，114(30): 4-16。

沈有忠，2022，〈德國安全與能源政策在俄烏戰爭中之轉向〉，《歐亞研究》，19: 71-76。

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段其賀，2018，〈冷戰後的德俄關係研究〉，青島：青島大學政治與公共管理學院碩士學位論文。

連弘宜，黃建豪，2016，〈普京時期對外軍事行動與軍事保護傘的形成〉，《全球政治評論》，55: 25-50。

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許智翔，2022，〈烏俄戰爭是否真讓德國經歷安全政策「轉捩點」？〉，《全球政治評論》，78: 15-23。

焦一強，朱艷，2021，〈「選擇性互動」與烏克蘭危機以來德俄關係回暖評析〉，《俄羅斯研究》，5: 111-140。

湯紹成，2001，〈當前德國外交政策淺析〉，《問題與研究》，40(1): 15-28。

鄭春榮，朱金鋒，2014，〈從烏克蘭危機看德國外交政策的調整〉，《同濟大學學報（社會科學版）》，25(6): 36-46。

鄭春榮，李勤，2022，〈俄烏衝突下德國新政府外交與安全政策的轉型〉，2022年03期：126-154。

蔡明彥，張凱銘，2015，〈「避險」戰略下大國互動模式之研究：以美中亞太戰略競合為例〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，16(3): 1-68。

謝安，2019，〈梅克爾時期德國對俄羅斯外交政策之研究〉，台北：國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班學位論文。

戴啟秀，2015，〈烏克蘭危機對德俄關係及全球格局的潛在影響〉，《國際觀察》，2: 100-113。

蘇卓馨，2019，〈歐盟規範性權力與中國關係性權力在中東歐國家的實踐〉，《政治科學論叢》，81: 69-104。

（三）新聞媒體
中央社，2022，〈蒲亭宣布：將對烏克蘭採取特種軍事作戰〉，https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202202245004.aspx，查閱時間：2022年11月8日。

自由時報，2014，〈歐、俄角力/斡旋烏克蘭危機 德扮要角〉，https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/paper/756607，查閱時間：2022/10/23。

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轉角國際，2022，〈金星來的德國人（中）搶救和平的「德軍一千億」？〉，https://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/6208846，查閱時間：2022/10/30。

 
三、德文資料
Augen Geradeaus! 2022. “Ukraine/Russland/NATO – Sammler 3. März 2022 (Update: Briefings Russland, USA).” https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/03/ukraine-russland-nato-sammler-3-maerz-2022/comment-page-1/. (Accessed on November 19,2022).

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Die Bundesregierung. 2014. “Regierungserklärung von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel zum Europäischen Rat am 18./19. Dezember in Brüssel.” https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/regierungserklaerung-von-bundeskanzlerin-merkel-zum-europaeischen-rat-am-18-19-dezember-in-bruessel-434630 (Accessed on September 22, 2022)

Die Bundesregierung. 2018. “Koalitionsvertrag zwischen CDU, CSU, und SPD.” https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/974430/847984/5b8bc23590d4cb2892b31c987ad672b7/2018-03-14-koalitionsvertrag-data.pdf?download=1 (Accessed on September 27, 2022).

Frankfurter Allgemeine. 2019. “Zustand der deutschen Panzer und Flugzeuge soll geheim bleiben.” https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/bundeswehr-zustand-der-deutschen-panzer-soll-geheim-bleiben-16083344.html (Accessed on November 1, 2022).

Tagesspiegel. 2022. “Scholz hat seine Zusagen schon wieder einkassiert.” https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/zeitenwende-fuer-die-bundeswehr-scholz-hat-seine-zusagen-schon-wieder-einkassiert/28239210.html. (Accessed on November 19, 2022).

Zentrum Liberale Moderne. 2021. “Merkel’s Ambivalent Legacy in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe.” https://libmod.de/en/merkels-ambivalent-legacy-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe-umland/ (Accessed on October 1, 2022).
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
109253014
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109253014
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 蘇卓馨zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 林錡楓zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lin, Chi-Fengen_US
dc.creator (作者) 林錡楓zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Lin, Chi-Fengen_US
dc.date (日期) 2023en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-Mar-2023 18:10:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-Mar-2023 18:10:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Mar-2023 18:10:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109253014en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/143708-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 外交學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 109253014zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文旨在探討在俄羅斯—烏克蘭衝突框架下的德國對俄政策。自2014年烏克蘭危機以來至2022年俄國對烏克蘭的入侵，基於德國與俄羅斯的密切關係以及德國在大西洋社群中的領導地位，德國的對俄政策一直都是左右俄烏衝突局勢發展的決定性因素。同時，柏林與莫斯科長年累積下來的經濟與能源合作基礎，加上俄國近年來屢屢破壞民主、人權、法治等價值及日益強勢的對外行為，使得德國前總理安格拉．梅克爾(Angela Merkel)及現任總理奧拉夫．蕭茲(Olaf Scholz)均逐步調整德國的對俄政策，在維護共同利益的同時也防範潛在的安全威脅，因而使德國對俄政策產生了結構現實主義中避險策略之特徵。於此，本文將梳理德國對俄政策之根源及政策形成之脈絡，並以避險理論來分析德國對俄避險政策之發展及其在俄烏衝突框架下的轉變。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis discusses Germany`s Russia policy in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Based on the close relations between Germany and Russia and Germany’s leading role in the Trans-Atlantic community, Germany’s Russia policy has been playing a decisive role in affecting the situation of the conflict from the Ukraine Crisis of 2014 to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Meanwhile, given the complex situation that Berlin and Moscow have been cooperating in the fields of trade, investment, and particularly energy for decades; plus, Russia has been breaching the values of democracy, human rights, and rule-based international order in recent years, the German ex-chancellor Angela Merkel and the current chancellor Olaf Scholz have gradually made some changes on the country’s Russia policy during their tenures. Those changes aim at maintaining common interests but simultaneously preventing potential threats to national security, and as a result attribute the characteristics of the “hedging strategy” of the structural realism to Germany’s Russia policy. This thesis will first probe into the roots of Germany’s Russia policy and how it was shaped during the past decades, then analyze the policy’s development and its changes under the context of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict with the hedging strategy.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 I
Abstract II
目次 III
圖次 V
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 文獻回顧 3
第三節 研究途徑與方法 16
第四節 研究範圍與限制 20
第五節 章節安排 21
第二章 德國對俄政策之發展 22
第一節 前梅克爾時代德國對俄政策 22
第二節 梅克爾時期對俄政策 27
第三節 結語 36
第三章 2014年烏克蘭危機下的德國對俄避險策略 39
第一節 避險策略與德國的國防與經濟政策 39
第二節 避險光譜與德國對俄避險政策之定位 45
第三節 結語 51
第四章 2022年俄烏戰爭下的德國對俄避險策略 54
第一節 俄烏戰爭之成因與發展 54
第二節 德國對戰爭立場及避險政策之轉變 65
第三節 結語 74
第五章 結論 78
參考資料 83		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1860147 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109253014en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 德國對俄政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 德俄關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 避險策略zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄烏衝突zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Germany’s Russia policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) German-Russian relationsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hedging strategyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russo-Ukrainian conflicten_US
dc.title (題名) 德國對俄羅斯避險政策之研究(2005-2022)zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A Study of Germany’s Hedging Strategy towards Russia(2005-2022)en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、英文資料
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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. 2021. “Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees.” https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en&TSPD_101_R0=08765fb817ab20005b18505c893ac22366bcd6df8b6b34e5656eb2fcfdc4d2617babd3ff24cee23a08c8907a1d143000fcb2e8a9868ae7c0cf6357b1253f3234a46f1cf6f1d93af2016acaf13e449e9b93016337ed1404e69710ca96b39f0514 (Accessed November 7, 2022).

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. 2021. “Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.” https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y (Accessed on November 7, 2022).

UN Peacemaker. 2015. "Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements" https://peacemaker.
un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/UA_150212_MinskAgreement_en.pdf (Accessed on November 7, 2022).

Virtual Centre for Knowledge on Europe. 2015. “Quadripartite Agreement on Berlin.” https://www.cvce.eu/content/publication/2003/3/12/9bfcb5f5-8e0d-46ee-9f7f-8e9a7c945fa7/publishable_en.pdf. (Accessed on August 25, 2022).

Willy Brandt Online Biografie. https://www.willy-brandt-biography.com/politics/ostpolitik/. (Accessed on August 25, 2022)

World Integrated Trade Solution. 2006. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/RUS/Year/2005/Summary (Accessed on September 27, 2022).

World Integrated Trade Solution. 2008. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/DEU/StartYear/2005/EndYear/2008/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/BY-COUNTRY/Indicator/MPRT-TRD-VL (Accessed on September 27, 2022).

World Integrated Trade Solution. 2020.
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/DEU/Year/2020/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/by-country (Accessed on September 27, 2022).
 
二、中文資料
（一）專書
朱宏源，1999，《撰寫博碩士論文實戰手冊》，台北：正中。

吳玉山 ，2009，〈權力不對稱與兩岸關係研究〉，包宗和、吳玉山主編，《重新檢視爭辯中的兩岸關係理論》：31-60。臺北：五南。

林秀雲譯，Barbie, Earl 著，2016，《社會科學研究方法》，台北：雙葉書廊。

崔琳，連弘宜，許菁芸等，2012，〈俄喬衝突前後俄羅斯與北約關係之研究〉，連弘宜，《金磚國家俄羅斯及歐亞地區研究》：40-72，台北：五南。

（二）期刊論文
李超，2022，〈俄烏衝突下的德國安全政策調整〉，《現代國際關係》，2022年06期：12-19。

李微，劉立群，2019，〈烏克蘭危機以來德俄雙軌政策探究〉，《現代國際關係》，2: 18-25。

李樂曾，2015，〈歷史問題與聯邦德國外交政策的選擇—以德法、德波和德以關係為例〉，《德國研究》，114(30): 4-16。

沈有忠，2022，〈德國安全與能源政策在俄烏戰爭中之轉向〉，《歐亞研究》，19: 71-76。

吳崇涵，2018，〈中美競逐影響力下的臺灣避險策略〉，《歐美研究》，48(4): 513-547。

段其賀，2018，〈冷戰後的德俄關係研究〉，青島：青島大學政治與公共管理學院碩士學位論文。

連弘宜，黃建豪，2016，〈普京時期對外軍事行動與軍事保護傘的形成〉，《全球政治評論》，55: 25-50。

孫健，1999，〈冷戰後德國外交政策的調整及其新走向〉，《世界經濟與政治論壇》，2: 17-21。

許智翔，2022，〈烏俄戰爭是否真讓德國經歷安全政策「轉捩點」？〉，《全球政治評論》，78: 15-23。

焦一強，朱艷，2021，〈「選擇性互動」與烏克蘭危機以來德俄關係回暖評析〉，《俄羅斯研究》，5: 111-140。

湯紹成，2001，〈當前德國外交政策淺析〉，《問題與研究》，40(1): 15-28。

鄭春榮，朱金鋒，2014，〈從烏克蘭危機看德國外交政策的調整〉，《同濟大學學報（社會科學版）》，25(6): 36-46。

鄭春榮，李勤，2022，〈俄烏衝突下德國新政府外交與安全政策的轉型〉，2022年03期：126-154。

蔡明彥，張凱銘，2015，〈「避險」戰略下大國互動模式之研究：以美中亞太戰略競合為例〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，16(3): 1-68。

謝安，2019，〈梅克爾時期德國對俄羅斯外交政策之研究〉，台北：國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班學位論文。

戴啟秀，2015，〈烏克蘭危機對德俄關係及全球格局的潛在影響〉，《國際觀察》，2: 100-113。

蘇卓馨，2019，〈歐盟規範性權力與中國關係性權力在中東歐國家的實踐〉，《政治科學論叢》，81: 69-104。

（三）新聞媒體
中央社，2022，〈蒲亭宣布：將對烏克蘭採取特種軍事作戰〉，https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202202245004.aspx，查閱時間：2022年11月8日。

自由時報，2014，〈歐、俄角力/斡旋烏克蘭危機 德扮要角〉，https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/paper/756607，查閱時間：2022/10/23。

德國之聲中文網，2022，〈八小時談判奏效，俄烏同意不動武〉，https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%85%AB%E5%B0%8F%E6%97%B6%E8%B0%88%E5%88%A4%E5%A5%8F%E6%95%88-%E4%BF%84%E4%B9%8C%E5%90%8C%E6%84%8F%E4%B8%8D%E5%8A%A8%E6%AD%A6/a-60568821，查閱時間：2022年11月8日。

轉角國際，2022，〈金星來的德國人（中）搶救和平的「德軍一千億」？〉，https://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/6208846，查閱時間：2022/10/30。

 
三、德文資料
Augen Geradeaus! 2022. “Ukraine/Russland/NATO – Sammler 3. März 2022 (Update: Briefings Russland, USA).” https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/03/ukraine-russland-nato-sammler-3-maerz-2022/comment-page-1/. (Accessed on November 19,2022).

Bundeswehr. 2022. “Die Trendwende Finanzen.” https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/ueber-die-bundeswehr/modernisierung-bundeswehr/verteidigungshaushalt-trendwende-finanzen (Accessed on November 17, 2022).

Die Bundesregierung. 2022. “Militärische Unterstützungsleistungen für die Ukraine.” https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992 (Accessed on November 11, 2022).

Die Bundesregierung. 2021. “Koalitionsvertrag zwischen SPD, Bündnis 90/ Die Grünen und FDP, Meir Fortschritt Wagen, Bündnis für Freiheit, Gerechtigkeit und Nachhaltigkeit." p.146. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/gesetzesvorhaben/koalitionsvertrag-2021-1990800 (Accessed on November 15, 2022)

Der Bundespraesident. 2013. “Speech by federal president Joachim Gauck to mark the Day of German Unity”. http://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/ DE/Reden/2013/10/131003-Tag-Deutsche-Einheit-englische-Uebersetzung.pdf;jsessionid=E41D5D803085D1D08E03B3C521000B07.2_cid293?__blob=publicationFile (Accessed on October 8, 2022).

Die Bundesregierung. 2014. “Regierungserklärung von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel zum Europäischen Rat am 18./19. Dezember in Brüssel.” https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/regierungserklaerung-von-bundeskanzlerin-merkel-zum-europaeischen-rat-am-18-19-dezember-in-bruessel-434630 (Accessed on September 22, 2022)

Die Bundesregierung. 2018. “Koalitionsvertrag zwischen CDU, CSU, und SPD.” https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/974430/847984/5b8bc23590d4cb2892b31c987ad672b7/2018-03-14-koalitionsvertrag-data.pdf?download=1 (Accessed on September 27, 2022).

Frankfurter Allgemeine. 2019. “Zustand der deutschen Panzer und Flugzeuge soll geheim bleiben.” https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/bundeswehr-zustand-der-deutschen-panzer-soll-geheim-bleiben-16083344.html (Accessed on November 1, 2022).

Tagesspiegel. 2022. “Scholz hat seine Zusagen schon wieder einkassiert.” https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/zeitenwende-fuer-die-bundeswehr-scholz-hat-seine-zusagen-schon-wieder-einkassiert/28239210.html. (Accessed on November 19, 2022).

Zentrum Liberale Moderne. 2021. “Merkel’s Ambivalent Legacy in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe.” https://libmod.de/en/merkels-ambivalent-legacy-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe-umland/ (Accessed on October 1, 2022).		zh_TW