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題名 經理人過度自信對可轉換公司債發行與轉換條件設定的影響
The Impact of CEO Overconfidence on the Issuance of Convertible Bonds and the Setting of Conversion Conditions作者 羅佩文
Lo, Pei-Wen貢獻者 周冠男<br>陳嬿如
Chou, Kuan-Nan<br>Chen, Yenn-Ru
羅佩文
Lo, Pei-Wen關鍵詞 經理人過度自信
可轉換公司債
轉換溢價率
市值溢價率
發行人贖回權行使
轉換執行率
CEO Overconfidence
Convertible Bonds
Conversion Premium
Value Premium
Redemption
Conversion Rate日期 2022 上傳時間 9-Mar-2023 18:35:06 (UTC+8) 摘要 經理人過度自信的特質會影響公司的融資決策。本研究探討經理人過度自信與發行可轉換公司債及轉換條件設定的關聯。資料樣本為台灣 2010-2020 年發行可轉債之上市櫃公司，排除金融、保險與證券業。本研究實證結果為，經理人具有過度自信的傾向會提高可轉債發行機率以及提高轉換溢價率，顯示過度自信之經理人會高估公司發行可轉債的轉換價格，導致轉換溢價率高。然而，經理人過度自信並沒有顯著影響可轉債市值溢價率和轉換執行率的高低，以及發行公司行使贖回權的機率。另外，過往文獻指出，科技業經理人過度自信程度有高於非科技業的傾向。因此亦探討在此前提下，科技業所發行之可轉債在轉換溢價率、市值溢價率、發行公司贖回權的行使與轉換執行率是否與非科技業有顯著差異。結果證實，因科技業經理人過度自信傾向高於非科技業，導致市值溢價率較低與行使贖回權機率低於非科技業，另也因科技業成長潛力較大，投資人轉換執行率顯著高於非科技業。然而，科技業之轉換溢價率並無明顯高於非科技業。
It is well documented that CEO overconfidence strongly affects corporates’ financing decisions. This study examines the association of CEO overconfidence with issuance of convertible bonds and the setting of conversion conditions. The sample data are firms listed in the Taiwan Stock Markets from 2010-2020, excluding financial, insurance and security industries. The empirical results indicate that overconfident CEO tends to increase both the probability of convertible bonds issuance and conversion premium. CEO with overconfidence will overestimate the conversion priceof the convertible bond, thus resulting in a higher conversion premium. However, CEO overconfidence does not significantly influence value premium, redemption andconversion rate. The sample data are further divided into two categories, tech and nontech industry. Based on the literature that CEOs in tech industry have relatively higheroverconfidence, this study investigates whether the conversion conditions including conversion premium, value premium, redemption and conversion rate are statisticallysignificantly different between two industries. The results confirm that because CEOs in tech industry have higher overconfidence, leading to a lower value premium andlower probability of executing redemption than in non-tech industry. Moreover, with greater growth potential, conversion rate in tech industry is significantly higher than non-tech industry. As for conversion premium, there are no significant differencesbetween the two industries.參考文獻 中文文獻王朝仕、周建新、張簡榮奮（2005），可轉換公司債發行宣告效果之再驗證–內部人交易觀點，經營管理論叢，第一卷第二期，頁 1-22。孫梅瑞、陳雅君（2005），公司融資決策與購併績效關聯性之研究，商略學報，第二卷第三期，頁 199-215。王育偉、尤涵星、吳慧珍、鄭揚耀（2014），經理人過度自信與股票購回關係之 研究，中山管理評論，第二十二卷第四期，頁 759-791。林翠蓉、李信翰、侯啟聘、張力（2012），經理人過度自信與產品競爭行為關係之研究，會計與財金研究，第五卷第一期，頁 17-42。丘智謀（2011），企業如何善用公司債籌資以強化財務結構，證券暨期貨月刊，第二十九卷第四期，頁 5-23。陳雲英、黃勝華、蘇迺惠（2017），經理人過度自信與盈餘品質之關係，台灣管理學刊，第十七卷第一期，頁 1-22。張志向（2006），影響可轉換公司債發行宣告效果的因素–長期與短期股價效果之實證研究，輔仁管理評論，第十三卷第二期，頁 99-140。孫梅瑞、陳珈淇（2010），台灣可轉換公司債之發行、轉換與公司經營績效，台灣金融財務季刊，第十一卷第四期，頁 105-132。王禹軒、林翠蓉、洪榮華、張力、蔡函芳（2013），家族企業特性與經理人過度自信對其舉債決策之影響，中山管理評論，第二十一卷第七期，頁 123-163。王文聖、李易政、洪榮華、陳香如、張瑋珊（2013），經理人過度自信對企業發生財務危機之影響：以家族企業特性為調節效果，臺大管理叢論，第二十三卷第二期，頁 65-96。吳儀玲（1993），可轉換公司債發行公司的特徵探討，未出版碩士論文，國立台灣大學財務金融研究所，台灣台北。林育志（2001），轉換公司債發行動機之風險移轉與後門權益假說實證，未出版碩士論文，國立中山大學財務管理研究所，台灣高雄。林尚輝（2007），管理者過度自信與公司投資–以台灣上市電子公司為例，未出版碩士論文，輔仁大學管理學研究所，台灣新北。林靜容（1991），我國可轉換公司債發行之決定因素及其影響公司價值之實證研究，未出版碩士論文，國立中央大學財務金融研究所，台灣桃園。周舒屏（2013），可轉債發行條件及公司特性與發行後績效關聯性之探討，未出版碩士論文，國立臺北大學會計研究所，台灣新北。英文文獻Ahmed, A. S., and Duellman, S. (2013). Managerial overconfidence and accounting conservatism. Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 51, No. 1, 1-30.Bae, Gil S., Jeong, J., Sun, Huey-Lian and Tang, Alex P., (2002). Stock Returns and Operating Performance of Securities Issuers. Journal of Financial Research, Vol.25, No. 3, 337-352.Brennan, M. J., and Schwartz, E. S. (1977). Convertible bonds: Valuation and optimal strategies for call and conversion. Journal of Finance, Vol. 32, No. 5, 1699-1715.Campbell, T.C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherfold, J., and Stanley, B. W. (2011). CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 101, No.3, 695-712.Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D. and Subrahmanyam, A. (1998). Investor Psychology and Security Market Under and Overreactions. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No. 6,1839-1885.De Bondt, Werner F. M. and Richard Thaler (1995). Financial Decision Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective. Handbook of Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 9, 385–410.Dittrich, D.A.V., and Güth, W. (2005). Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach. The European Journal of Finance, Vol. 11, No. 6, 471-491.Donaldson, G. (1961). Corporate Debt Capacity: A Study of Corporate Debt Policy and the Determination of Corporate Debt Capacity, Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration, Boston.Duffee, G. R., (1995). Stock Returns and Volatility: A Firm-Level Analysis. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 37, 371-398.Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstien, S., and Phillips, L. D. (1982). Calibration of probability: The state of the art to 1980. Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press.Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., and Odean T. (2007). Overconfidence, investment policy and manager welfare. Working Paper, Fuqua School of Business.Goel, A. M., & Thakor, A. V. (2000). Rationality, overconfidence, and leadership. Working paper, University of Michigan Business School.Goel, A., and Thakor A., (2008). Overconfidence, CEO Selection, and Corporate Governance. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 63, No. 6, 2737-2784.Hansen, R. and Crutchley, C. (1990). Corporate Earnings and Financings: An Empirical Analysis. The Journal of Business, Vol. 63, No. 3, 347-71.Hackbarth, D. (2008). Managerial traits and capital structure decisions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 43, No. 4, 843-882.Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, Vol. 31, No. 2, 33-45.Hoffmeister, J.R. (1977). Use of convertible debt in the early 1970s: A revaluation of corporate motive. Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, Vol. 17, No. 2, 23-32.Jensen, M.C., and Meckling, W.H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 3, No.4, 305-360Kim, Yong O., (1990). Informative Conversion Ratios：A Signaling Approach. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, (25), 229-243.Lee, Inmoo and Loughran, T., (1998). Performance Following Convertible Bond Issuance. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 4, No. 2, 185-207.Malmendier, U. and Tate, G. (2005). Does overconfidence affect corporate investment? CEO overconfidence measures revisited. European Financial Management, Vol. 11, No. 5, 649-659.Malmendier, U. and Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment.Journal of Finance, Vol. 60, No. 6, 2661-2700.Malmendier, U. and Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market’s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 89, No. 1, 20-43.Malmendier, U., Tate, G., and Yan, J. (2011). Overconfidence and early-life experiences:The effect of managerial traits on corporate financial policies. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 66, No. 5, 1687-1733.McLaughlin, R., Safieddine, A., and Vasudevan, G. K., (1998). The long-run performance of convertible debt issuers. The Journal of Finance Research, Vol. 21, No. 4, 373-388.Myers, Stewart C. and Majluf, Nicholas S., (1984). Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Information That Investor Do Not Have.Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 13, No.2, 187-221.Shalit, S. S., and Sankar, U. (1977). The measurement of firm size. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 9, No. 3, 290-298.Spiess, D. Katherine and Affleck-Graves, J., (1999). The Long-Run Performance of Stock Returns Following Debt Offerings. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.54, No. 1, 45-73.Stein, J. C. (1992). Convertible bonds as backdoor equity financing. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 32, No. 1, 3-21.Schrand, C. M., and Zechman, S. L. C. (2012) Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 53, No. 1-2, 311-329.Wolfe, S., Daliakopoulos, S. and Gwilym, Owain A. P., (1999). Equity Valuation Effects of the Issuance of Convertible Bonds: U.K. Evidence. Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 9, No. 3, 7-18. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理研究所(MBA學位學程)
110363049資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110363049 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 周冠男<br>陳嬿如 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chou, Kuan-Nan<br>Chen, Yenn-Ru en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 羅佩文 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lo, Pei-Wen en_US dc.creator (作者) 羅佩文 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lo, Pei-Wen en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 9-Mar-2023 18:35:06 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 9-Mar-2023 18:35:06 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Mar-2023 18:35:06 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110363049 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/143826 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 企業管理研究所(MBA學位學程) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110363049 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 經理人過度自信的特質會影響公司的融資決策。本研究探討經理人過度自信與發行可轉換公司債及轉換條件設定的關聯。資料樣本為台灣 2010-2020 年發行可轉債之上市櫃公司，排除金融、保險與證券業。本研究實證結果為，經理人具有過度自信的傾向會提高可轉債發行機率以及提高轉換溢價率，顯示過度自信之經理人會高估公司發行可轉債的轉換價格，導致轉換溢價率高。然而，經理人過度自信並沒有顯著影響可轉債市值溢價率和轉換執行率的高低，以及發行公司行使贖回權的機率。另外，過往文獻指出，科技業經理人過度自信程度有高於非科技業的傾向。因此亦探討在此前提下，科技業所發行之可轉債在轉換溢價率、市值溢價率、發行公司贖回權的行使與轉換執行率是否與非科技業有顯著差異。結果證實，因科技業經理人過度自信傾向高於非科技業，導致市值溢價率較低與行使贖回權機率低於非科技業，另也因科技業成長潛力較大，投資人轉換執行率顯著高於非科技業。然而，科技業之轉換溢價率並無明顯高於非科技業。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) It is well documented that CEO overconfidence strongly affects corporates’ financing decisions. This study examines the association of CEO overconfidence with issuance of convertible bonds and the setting of conversion conditions. The sample data are firms listed in the Taiwan Stock Markets from 2010-2020, excluding financial, insurance and security industries. The empirical results indicate that overconfident CEO tends to increase both the probability of convertible bonds issuance and conversion premium. CEO with overconfidence will overestimate the conversion priceof the convertible bond, thus resulting in a higher conversion premium. However, CEO overconfidence does not significantly influence value premium, redemption andconversion rate. The sample data are further divided into two categories, tech and nontech industry. Based on the literature that CEOs in tech industry have relatively higheroverconfidence, this study investigates whether the conversion conditions including conversion premium, value premium, redemption and conversion rate are statisticallysignificantly different between two industries. The results confirm that because CEOs in tech industry have higher overconfidence, leading to a lower value premium andlower probability of executing redemption than in non-tech industry. Moreover, with greater growth potential, conversion rate in tech industry is significantly higher than non-tech industry. As for conversion premium, there are no significant differencesbetween the two industries. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 誌謝 I摘要 IIAbstract III目錄 IV表目錄 V壹、緒論 1一、研究背景 1二、研究動機與目的 2貳、文獻探討 4一、過度自信文獻 4二、可轉換公司債文獻 6三、研究假說 8參、研究方法 11一、過度自信衡量方法 11二、研究變數 12三、研究模型 15肆、實證結果與分析 17一、研究樣本與研究期間 17二、敘述統計與相關係數分析 17伍、迴歸分析 26一、經理人是否過度自信將影響可轉債發行 26二、經理人是否過度自信將影響可轉債轉換條件 29三、科技業與非科技業間的轉換條件是否有顯著差異 37陸、研究結論與建議 39參考文獻 42 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2253944 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110363049 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經理人過度自信 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 可轉換公司債 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 轉換溢價率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市值溢價率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 發行人贖回權行使 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 轉換執行率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) CEO Overconfidence en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Convertible Bonds en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Conversion Premium en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Value Premium en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Redemption en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Conversion Rate en_US dc.title (題名) 經理人過度自信對可轉換公司債發行與轉換條件設定的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of CEO Overconfidence on the Issuance of Convertible Bonds and the Setting of Conversion Conditions en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻王朝仕、周建新、張簡榮奮（2005），可轉換公司債發行宣告效果之再驗證–內部人交易觀點，經營管理論叢，第一卷第二期，頁 1-22。孫梅瑞、陳雅君（2005），公司融資決策與購併績效關聯性之研究，商略學報，第二卷第三期，頁 199-215。王育偉、尤涵星、吳慧珍、鄭揚耀（2014），經理人過度自信與股票購回關係之 研究，中山管理評論，第二十二卷第四期，頁 759-791。林翠蓉、李信翰、侯啟聘、張力（2012），經理人過度自信與產品競爭行為關係之研究，會計與財金研究，第五卷第一期，頁 17-42。丘智謀（2011），企業如何善用公司債籌資以強化財務結構，證券暨期貨月刊，第二十九卷第四期，頁 5-23。陳雲英、黃勝華、蘇迺惠（2017），經理人過度自信與盈餘品質之關係，台灣管理學刊，第十七卷第一期，頁 1-22。張志向（2006），影響可轉換公司債發行宣告效果的因素–長期與短期股價效果之實證研究，輔仁管理評論，第十三卷第二期，頁 99-140。孫梅瑞、陳珈淇（2010），台灣可轉換公司債之發行、轉換與公司經營績效，台灣金融財務季刊，第十一卷第四期，頁 105-132。王禹軒、林翠蓉、洪榮華、張力、蔡函芳（2013），家族企業特性與經理人過度自信對其舉債決策之影響，中山管理評論，第二十一卷第七期，頁 123-163。王文聖、李易政、洪榮華、陳香如、張瑋珊（2013），經理人過度自信對企業發生財務危機之影響：以家族企業特性為調節效果，臺大管理叢論，第二十三卷第二期，頁 65-96。吳儀玲（1993），可轉換公司債發行公司的特徵探討，未出版碩士論文，國立台灣大學財務金融研究所，台灣台北。林育志（2001），轉換公司債發行動機之風險移轉與後門權益假說實證，未出版碩士論文，國立中山大學財務管理研究所，台灣高雄。林尚輝（2007），管理者過度自信與公司投資–以台灣上市電子公司為例，未出版碩士論文，輔仁大學管理學研究所，台灣新北。林靜容（1991），我國可轉換公司債發行之決定因素及其影響公司價值之實證研究，未出版碩士論文，國立中央大學財務金融研究所，台灣桃園。周舒屏（2013），可轉債發行條件及公司特性與發行後績效關聯性之探討，未出版碩士論文，國立臺北大學會計研究所，台灣新北。英文文獻Ahmed, A. 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