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題名 以技術指標建構投資策略之實證研究—以台灣個股為例
Empirical Study on Constructing Investment Strategies based on Technical Indicators – Taking Stocks in Taiwan for Example
作者 楊尚儒
Yang, Shang-Ju
貢獻者 黃泓智
Huang, Hong-Zhi
楊尚儒
Yang, Shang-Ju
關鍵詞 技術指標結合
個股股價回測
績效分析
Combination of technical indicators
Backtesting of Stock price
Performance analysis
MA
KD
RSI
MACD
日期 2023
上傳時間 9-Mar-2023 18:49:08 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究欲將常見的技術指標,如:移動平均線(MA)、隨機指標(KD)、相對強弱指標(RSI)、平滑異同移動平均線指標(MACD)等等,兩兩結合使用,並針對表現相對優異的MACD以及RSI技術指標做調整,以期較技術指標單獨使用時更佳的投資報酬,藉由個股股價回測以及績效分析,尋找相對適合台灣股市投資的技術指標方法。實證結果顯示,部分技術指標兩兩結合使用就可以帶來較單一技術指標更高的報酬,而針對個股RSI指數做簡單平均平滑、指數平均平滑或是進出場門檻的調整,再與其他技術指標結合使用,可以進一步提升投資績效,唯需注意部分技術指標方法存在投資標的之流動性風險,以及在空頭市場中表現欠佳的問題。
The purpose of this study is trying to combine common technical indicators, such as: Moving Average (MA), Stochastic Oscillator (KD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), etc. Indicators are combined or adjusted in order to achieve better investment returns than they were used alone. Stock price backtesting and performance analysis of individual stocks are conducting to find technical indicators that are relatively suitable for Taiwan stock market investment. The empirical results show that the combination of two technical indicators can bring higher returns than a single technical indicator, and smoothing RSI or adjusting the entry and exit thresholds can further improve performance. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the liquidity risk of investment targets in some technical indicator methods and the problem of poor performance in the bear market.
參考文獻 1. 福永博之。最強技術指標組合:日本人氣分析師親授1+1>2的賺錢術。2019年7月。
2. Appel, G.(1979). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Method, Signalert.
3. Kang, B.K. (2021). Improving MACD Technical Analysis by Optimizing Parameters and Modifying Trading Rules: Evidence from the Japanese Nikkei 225 Futures Market. Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, 37.
4. Fama, E.F. & Blume, M. (1966). Filter Rules and Stock Market Trading Profits. Journal of Business 39, Special Supplement, 226-241.
5. Froot, K.A., Scharfstein, D.S. & Stein, J.C. (1992). Heard on the street : information inefficiencies in a market with short-term speculators. Journal of Finance 47, 1461-1484.
6. Chan, P.M. (2018). Dynamically Adjustable Moving Average (AMA’) technical analysis indicator to forecast Asian Tigers’ futures markets. Physica A 509, 336-345.
7. Jensen, M.C. & Benington, G.A. (1970). Random Walks and Technical Theories: Some Additional Evidence. Journal of Finance, 469-482.
8. Murphy, J.J. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. New York Institute of Finance, 1-5, 24-31.
9. Borowski, K. & Izabela, P.G. (2019). Optimal lengths of moving averages for the MACD oscillator for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Bank i Kredyt 50(5), 457-478.
10. Menkhoff, L. (2010). The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance 34, 2573–2586.
11. Wong, W. K., Manzur, M. & Chew, B.K. (2003). How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market. Applied Financial Economics, 13(7), 543–551.
12. Nison, S. (1994). Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed, John Wiley and Sons.
13. Gold, S. (2015). The Viability of Six Popular Technical Analysis Trading Rules in Determining Effective Buy and Sell Signals: MACD, AROON, RSI, SO, OBV, and ADL. Journal of Applied Financial Research, Gulfport Vol.2:8-29.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
109358026
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109358026
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 黃泓智zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Hong-Zhien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊尚儒zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Shang-Juen_US
dc.creator (作者) 楊尚儒zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Yang, Shang-Juen_US
dc.date (日期) 2023en_US
dc.date.accessioned 9-Mar-2023 18:49:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 9-Mar-2023 18:49:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Mar-2023 18:49:08 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109358026en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/143881-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 109358026zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究欲將常見的技術指標,如:移動平均線(MA)、隨機指標(KD)、相對強弱指標(RSI)、平滑異同移動平均線指標(MACD)等等,兩兩結合使用,並針對表現相對優異的MACD以及RSI技術指標做調整,以期較技術指標單獨使用時更佳的投資報酬,藉由個股股價回測以及績效分析,尋找相對適合台灣股市投資的技術指標方法。實證結果顯示,部分技術指標兩兩結合使用就可以帶來較單一技術指標更高的報酬,而針對個股RSI指數做簡單平均平滑、指數平均平滑或是進出場門檻的調整,再與其他技術指標結合使用,可以進一步提升投資績效,唯需注意部分技術指標方法存在投資標的之流動性風險,以及在空頭市場中表現欠佳的問題。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of this study is trying to combine common technical indicators, such as: Moving Average (MA), Stochastic Oscillator (KD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), etc. Indicators are combined or adjusted in order to achieve better investment returns than they were used alone. Stock price backtesting and performance analysis of individual stocks are conducting to find technical indicators that are relatively suitable for Taiwan stock market investment. The empirical results show that the combination of two technical indicators can bring higher returns than a single technical indicator, and smoothing RSI or adjusting the entry and exit thresholds can further improve performance. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the liquidity risk of investment targets in some technical indicator methods and the problem of poor performance in the bear market.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 7
第貳章 文獻回顧 9
第一節 傳統型技術指標文獻探討 9
第二節 綜合型技術指標文獻探討 10
第參章 研究方法 13
第一節 研究架構 13
第二節 技術指標 14
第三節 技術指標之結合及調整 22
第四節 績效分析指標 24
第肆章 實證分析 26
第一節 單一技術指標實證結果 26
第二節 結合後技術指標實證結果 28
第三節 調整後技術指標實證結果 34
第四節 基本面篩選及空頭市場下之實證結果 47
第伍章 結論與建議 54
參考文獻 56
附錄一:其他結合後技術指標實證結果 58
附錄二:其他技術指標結合不同週期SMA_RSI績效 60
附錄三:其他技術指標結合不同平滑方式RSI之績效 62
附錄四:其他技術指標搭配門檻調整之平滑RSI 64
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1883537 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109358026en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 技術指標結合zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 個股股價回測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 績效分析zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Combination of technical indicatorsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Backtesting of Stock priceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Performance analysisen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) MAen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) KDen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) RSIen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) MACDen_US
dc.title (題名) 以技術指標建構投資策略之實證研究—以台灣個股為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Empirical Study on Constructing Investment Strategies based on Technical Indicators – Taking Stocks in Taiwan for Exampleen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. 福永博之。最強技術指標組合:日本人氣分析師親授1+1>2的賺錢術。2019年7月。
2. Appel, G.(1979). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Method, Signalert.
3. Kang, B.K. (2021). Improving MACD Technical Analysis by Optimizing Parameters and Modifying Trading Rules: Evidence from the Japanese Nikkei 225 Futures Market. Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, 37.
4. Fama, E.F. & Blume, M. (1966). Filter Rules and Stock Market Trading Profits. Journal of Business 39, Special Supplement, 226-241.
5. Froot, K.A., Scharfstein, D.S. & Stein, J.C. (1992). Heard on the street : information inefficiencies in a market with short-term speculators. Journal of Finance 47, 1461-1484.
6. Chan, P.M. (2018). Dynamically Adjustable Moving Average (AMA’) technical analysis indicator to forecast Asian Tigers’ futures markets. Physica A 509, 336-345.
7. Jensen, M.C. & Benington, G.A. (1970). Random Walks and Technical Theories: Some Additional Evidence. Journal of Finance, 469-482.
8. Murphy, J.J. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. New York Institute of Finance, 1-5, 24-31.
9. Borowski, K. & Izabela, P.G. (2019). Optimal lengths of moving averages for the MACD oscillator for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Bank i Kredyt 50(5), 457-478.
10. Menkhoff, L. (2010). The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance 34, 2573–2586.
11. Wong, W. K., Manzur, M. & Chew, B.K. (2003). How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market. Applied Financial Economics, 13(7), 543–551.
12. Nison, S. (1994). Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed, John Wiley and Sons.
13. Gold, S. (2015). The Viability of Six Popular Technical Analysis Trading Rules in Determining Effective Buy and Sell Signals: MACD, AROON, RSI, SO, OBV, and ADL. Journal of Applied Financial Research, Gulfport Vol.2:8-29.
zh_TW