學術產出-Theses
Article View/Open
Publication Export
-
題名 台灣實施囤房稅政策之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析
Home Hoarding Tax Policy in Taiwan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis作者 徐曼薰
Hsu, Man-Hsuan貢獻者 朱琇妍
徐曼薰
Hsu, Man-Hsuan關鍵詞 動態隨機一般均衡模型
房價
囤房稅
移轉稅
升息政策
DEGE model
Housing prices
Home Hoarding Tax
Transfer tax
Contractionary monetary policy日期 2022 上傳時間 9-Mar-2023 18:53:29 (UTC+8) 摘要 台灣的房價日益攀升，為了落實居住正義，許多縣市政府自2022年7月1日起，調高囤房稅的稅率，期望能達到平抑房價，以及促進多屋族釋出餘屋的政策效果。本研究建立一個開放經濟動態隨機一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE)模型，分析實施囤房稅政策對台灣房屋市場的影響，並將囤房稅政策與其他房屋政策作比較。研究結果顯示，實施囤房稅政策以及移轉稅政策能有效抑制儲蓄者的囤房行為，也能發揮抑制房價與地價的效果。央行實施升息政策同樣也能達到平抑房價與地價的效果，但缺點是儲蓄者仍會有囤房行為，調高借款利息反而造成有居住需求的借款者降低購屋意願。所有房屋政策中，囤房稅政策最能兼顧房價合理化及借款者的購屋需求。
Housing prices in Taiwan are rising. In order to implement housing justice, many county and city governments have increased the home hoarding tax rates since July 1, 2022, aiming to stabilize housing prices and promote the release of wealthy families’ redundant housing. This paper develops an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the impact of implementing a home hoarding tax policy on Taiwan`s housing market, and compares its effects with other housing policies. The research results indicate that the implementation of the home hoarding tax policy and the transfer tax policy can effectively curb savers’ residential housing consumption, and depress housing prices and land prices. The central bank`s contractionary monetary policy can also stabilize housing prices and land prices, but the disadvantage is that savers still have home hoarding behavior, and an increase in loan rates makes borrowers reduce their demand for houses. Among all the housing policies, the home hoarding tax policy takes the borrowers’ purchase intention of residential housing into account and can fairly moderate housing prices.參考文獻 毛慶生 (2014)。總體經濟學—古典新論(一)(初版)。臺北市：雙葉書廊。石代維 (2019)。近年房屋稅徵收概況及稅制變動前後之比較。土地問題研究季刊，18(2)，94-106。施筱宣 (2022)。房貸成數與囤房稅對台灣房價之效果(碩士論文)。國立中山大學經濟學研究所，高雄市。國立政治大學社會科學學院不動產研究中心 (2022)。不動產月報第一期，2022年2月7日，取自：https://rer.nccu.edu.tw/report/detail/2208092008088。陳柏如 (2018)。總體審慎政策工具與臺灣房價的關係–特定目標信用工具與房市相關租稅工具的影響。經濟研究，54(2)，287-330。陳建新 (2020)。囤房稅對房價的影響–合成控制法的應用(碩士論文)。國立臺中科技大學財政稅務系租稅管理與理財規劃碩士班，台中市。黃明聖與施燕 (2018)。總體經濟學(初版)。臺北市：雙葉書廊。楊金龍 (2022)。央行在健全房市方案中扮演的角色。中央銀行季刊，44(1)，5-28。Alpanda, S., & Zubairy, S. (2016). Housing and Tax Policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 48, 485-512.Bayoumi, T., & Zhao, Y. (2021). Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China. IMF Working Paper 20/265, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3710338Chen, Y. -J. (2001). Modeling the Impacts of Vacancy Taxes on the Taiwan Housing Market. Proceedings of the National Science Council, ROC, Part C: Humanities and Social Science, 11(2), 148-155.Chu, S. -Y. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics and Finance, 58, 404-421.Chu, S. -Y., & Wu, T. -C. (2022). Ad valorem versus unit taxes on capital in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. International Tax and Public Finance. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-022-09764-8Davis, M. A., & Heathcote, J. (2005). Housing and the Business Cycle. International Economic Review, 46(3), 751-784.Funke, M., & Paetz, M. (2013). Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong. Journal of Housing Economics, 22, 62-76.Germaschewski, Y., & Wang, S. -L. (2021). Distributional effects of nonresident investors on the housing market and welfare. Review of International Economics, 29, 1300-1326. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12544Gete, P. (2020). Expectations and the housing boom and bust. An open economy view. Journal of Housing Economics, 49, 101690.He, Q., Liu, F., Qian, Z., & Chong, T. (2017). Housing prices and business cycle in China: A DSGE analysis. International Review of Economics and Finance, 52, 246-256.Hwang, Y. -N., & Ho, P. -Y. (2012). Optimal monetary policy for Taiwan: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Academia Economic Papers, 40(4), 447-482.Iacoviello, M., & Neri, S. (2010). Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, 125-164.Lie, D. (2021). Implications of state-dependent pricing for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 71, 532-552.Punzi, M. T. (2013). Housing Market and Current Account Imbalances in the International Economy. Review of International Economics, 21(4), 601-613.Teo, W. L. (2009). Estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Taiwanese economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231.Wang, P. -Y. (2021). Does Taiwan Need a Macro-Prudential Policy? How to Do It? How to Coordinate with Monetary Policy? Academia Economic Papers, 49(1), 1-40. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
109255001資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109255001 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 朱琇妍 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 徐曼薰 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsu, Man-Hsuan en_US dc.creator (作者) 徐曼薰 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hsu, Man-Hsuan en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 9-Mar-2023 18:53:29 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 9-Mar-2023 18:53:29 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 9-Mar-2023 18:53:29 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109255001 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/143900 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109255001 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 台灣的房價日益攀升，為了落實居住正義，許多縣市政府自2022年7月1日起，調高囤房稅的稅率，期望能達到平抑房價，以及促進多屋族釋出餘屋的政策效果。本研究建立一個開放經濟動態隨機一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE)模型，分析實施囤房稅政策對台灣房屋市場的影響，並將囤房稅政策與其他房屋政策作比較。研究結果顯示，實施囤房稅政策以及移轉稅政策能有效抑制儲蓄者的囤房行為，也能發揮抑制房價與地價的效果。央行實施升息政策同樣也能達到平抑房價與地價的效果，但缺點是儲蓄者仍會有囤房行為，調高借款利息反而造成有居住需求的借款者降低購屋意願。所有房屋政策中，囤房稅政策最能兼顧房價合理化及借款者的購屋需求。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Housing prices in Taiwan are rising. In order to implement housing justice, many county and city governments have increased the home hoarding tax rates since July 1, 2022, aiming to stabilize housing prices and promote the release of wealthy families’ redundant housing. This paper develops an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the impact of implementing a home hoarding tax policy on Taiwan`s housing market, and compares its effects with other housing policies. The research results indicate that the implementation of the home hoarding tax policy and the transfer tax policy can effectively curb savers’ residential housing consumption, and depress housing prices and land prices. The central bank`s contractionary monetary policy can also stabilize housing prices and land prices, but the disadvantage is that savers still have home hoarding behavior, and an increase in loan rates makes borrowers reduce their demand for houses. Among all the housing policies, the home hoarding tax policy takes the borrowers’ purchase intention of residential housing into account and can fairly moderate housing prices. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景 1第二節 研究動機 4第二章 文獻回顧 7第一節 DSGE模型與房屋政策之相關文獻 7第二節 台灣囤房稅相關之實證分析文獻 9第三節 房市對總體經濟影響之相關文獻 11第三章 模型設立 14第一節 家計部門借款者 16第二節 家計部門儲蓄者 18第三節 最終財廠商及中間財廠商 19第四節 建商 21第五節 政府部門 22第六節 均衡 22第七節 外生衝擊設定 23第四章 模型校正 25第一節 參數設定 25第二節 變數恆定狀態數值 26第五章 模擬分析 32第一節 囤房稅稅率衝擊 32第二節 移轉稅稅率衝擊 35第三節 利率提高衝擊 38第四節 政府支出衝擊 41第五節 各部門生產技術衝擊 44第六節 各部門勞動供給量衝擊 52第七節 匯率衝擊 60第八節 國外利率調降衝擊 63第九節 小節 66第六章 結論與建議 69參考文獻 71附錄 74 zh_TW dc.format.extent 5105540 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109255001 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 囤房稅 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 移轉稅 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 升息政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) DEGE model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing prices en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Home Hoarding Tax en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Transfer tax en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Contractionary monetary policy en_US dc.title (題名) 台灣實施囤房稅政策之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Home Hoarding Tax Policy in Taiwan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 毛慶生 (2014)。總體經濟學—古典新論(一)(初版)。臺北市：雙葉書廊。石代維 (2019)。近年房屋稅徵收概況及稅制變動前後之比較。土地問題研究季刊，18(2)，94-106。施筱宣 (2022)。房貸成數與囤房稅對台灣房價之效果(碩士論文)。國立中山大學經濟學研究所，高雄市。國立政治大學社會科學學院不動產研究中心 (2022)。不動產月報第一期，2022年2月7日，取自：https://rer.nccu.edu.tw/report/detail/2208092008088。陳柏如 (2018)。總體審慎政策工具與臺灣房價的關係–特定目標信用工具與房市相關租稅工具的影響。經濟研究，54(2)，287-330。陳建新 (2020)。囤房稅對房價的影響–合成控制法的應用(碩士論文)。國立臺中科技大學財政稅務系租稅管理與理財規劃碩士班，台中市。黃明聖與施燕 (2018)。總體經濟學(初版)。臺北市：雙葉書廊。楊金龍 (2022)。央行在健全房市方案中扮演的角色。中央銀行季刊，44(1)，5-28。Alpanda, S., & Zubairy, S. (2016). Housing and Tax Policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 48, 485-512.Bayoumi, T., & Zhao, Y. (2021). Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China. IMF Working Paper 20/265, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3710338Chen, Y. -J. (2001). Modeling the Impacts of Vacancy Taxes on the Taiwan Housing Market. Proceedings of the National Science Council, ROC, Part C: Humanities and Social Science, 11(2), 148-155.Chu, S. -Y. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics and Finance, 58, 404-421.Chu, S. -Y., & Wu, T. -C. (2022). Ad valorem versus unit taxes on capital in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. International Tax and Public Finance. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-022-09764-8Davis, M. A., & Heathcote, J. (2005). Housing and the Business Cycle. International Economic Review, 46(3), 751-784.Funke, M., & Paetz, M. (2013). Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong. Journal of Housing Economics, 22, 62-76.Germaschewski, Y., & Wang, S. -L. (2021). Distributional effects of nonresident investors on the housing market and welfare. Review of International Economics, 29, 1300-1326. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12544Gete, P. (2020). Expectations and the housing boom and bust. An open economy view. Journal of Housing Economics, 49, 101690.He, Q., Liu, F., Qian, Z., & Chong, T. (2017). Housing prices and business cycle in China: A DSGE analysis. International Review of Economics and Finance, 52, 246-256.Hwang, Y. -N., & Ho, P. -Y. (2012). Optimal monetary policy for Taiwan: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Academia Economic Papers, 40(4), 447-482.Iacoviello, M., & Neri, S. (2010). Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, 125-164.Lie, D. (2021). Implications of state-dependent pricing for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 71, 532-552.Punzi, M. T. (2013). Housing Market and Current Account Imbalances in the International Economy. Review of International Economics, 21(4), 601-613.Teo, W. L. (2009). Estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Taiwanese economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231.Wang, P. -Y. (2021). Does Taiwan Need a Macro-Prudential Policy? How to Do It? How to Coordinate with Monetary Policy? Academia Economic Papers, 49(1), 1-40. zh_TW
