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題名 台灣貿易國的 Covid-19 確診人數與政府邊境管制政策對台灣失業率的影響
The impact of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Taiwan`s trading countries and the government`s border control policies on Taiwan`s unemployment rate作者 謝欣芸
Hsieh, Hsin-Yun貢獻者 徐則謙
謝欣芸
Hsieh, Hsin-Yun關鍵詞 ARDL分析
國際貿易
失業率
疫情邊境管制政策
COVID-19
COVID-19
unemployment rate
ARDL analysis
COVID-19 border control policies
international trade日期 2023 上傳時間 6-Jul-2023 16:30:05 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文主要研究 2020 年 COVID-19 爆發對台灣失業率的影響。透過全球確診病例數和台灣本土與台灣貿易夥伴實施的 COVID-19 邊境管制政策，調查全球新冠疫情對國內失業的影響。利用 ARDL 分析研究結果顯示，後兩期無論是台灣國內確診病例數，還是進出口國的確診病例數，都對台灣失業率有顯著影響。此外，只有台灣和國外實施的部分疫情邊境管制政策對台灣的失業率產生了顯著影響。
This paper primarily examines the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 on the unemployment rate in Taiwan.It investigates the influence of the global pandemic on domestic unemployment by considering the number of confirmed cases worldwide and the COVID-19 border control policies implemented by Taiwan`s trading partners. The results of the study using ARDL analysis showed that both the number of confirmed cases within Taiwan and the number of confirmed cases in importing and exporting countries during the latter two periods significantly affect Taiwan`s unemployment rate. Moreover, only certain COVID-19 border control policies implemented in Taiwan and abroad exhibit a notable impact on Taiwan`s unemployment rate.參考文獻 Hanming Fang, Chunmian Ge, Hanwei Huang & Hongbin Li. (2020, November).Pandemics, Global Supply Chains, and Local Labor Demand: Evidence from 100 Million Posted Jobs in China. NBER. https://www.nber.org/papers/w28072Lena Hensvik, Thomas Le Barbanchon, Roland Rathelot. (2020, May). Job Search during the COVID-19 Crisis. IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, p.5 https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13237/job-search-during-the-covid-19-crisisBaker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). Covid-induced economic uncertainty (Tech. Rep.). National Bureau of Economic Research, p.7Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26983.htmlSu, C. W., Dai, K., Ullah, s., & Andlib, z. (2021, May). COVID-19 Pandemic and Unemployment Dynamics in European Economies. Taylor & Francis Online Peer-Reviewed Journals and Articles, p.1761 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1912627?needAccess =true&role=buttonMurillo Campello, Gaurav Kankanhalli, Pradeep Muthukrishnan. (2020, May).Corporate Hiring under COVID-19: Labor Market Concentration, Downskilling, and Income Inequality. NBER, p.4https://www.nber.org/papers/w27208Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sebnem Kalemli-özcan, Veronika Penciakova Nick Sander. (2022, January). Estimating SME Failures in Real Time: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis. NBER, p.17- 21 https://www.nber.org/papers/w27877陳美菊、李淑麗 (201004 (10 期)) 全球經濟危機對台灣貿易之影響及對策, 國發會全球資訊網,p.281-283 https://reurl.cc/OEZvlXDave Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nick Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka and Greg Thwaites (2020). Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic. IDEAS, p.5-8 https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v191y2020ics0047272720301389.htmlJui-Yao Liu & Tzeng-Ji Chen & Shinn-Jang Hwang. (2020, May). Analysis of Imported Cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan: A Nationwide Study. IDEAS, p.1-12 https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i9p3311-d356030.htmlAdam Birgersson. (2022). The Economic Impact of COVID-19 Border Restrictions on the Labor Market, A Comparative Case Study on the Border Municipalities in Sweden. DiVA, p.21-23 https://www.diva- portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1669314/FULLTEXT01.pdfPolicy Tracker from Policy Responses to COVID-19. (2021, July). International Monetary Fund. Retrieved on May 10, 2023 https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19Dimitris Drakopoulos, Rohit Goel, Fabio Natalucci, Evan Papageorgiou. (2020, October). Emerging and Frontier Markets: Policy Tools in Times of Financial Stress. IMF Blog. Retrieved on May 10, 2023 https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2020/10/23/blog-emerging-and-frontier- markets-policy-tools-in-times-of-financial-stress 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
110351011資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110351011 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 徐則謙 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 謝欣芸 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsieh, Hsin-Yun en_US dc.creator (作者) 謝欣芸 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hsieh, Hsin-Yun en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 6-Jul-2023 16:30:05 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 6-Jul-2023 16:30:05 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 6-Jul-2023 16:30:05 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110351011 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/145780 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110351011 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文主要研究 2020 年 COVID-19 爆發對台灣失業率的影響。透過全球確診病例數和台灣本土與台灣貿易夥伴實施的 COVID-19 邊境管制政策，調查全球新冠疫情對國內失業的影響。利用 ARDL 分析研究結果顯示，後兩期無論是台灣國內確診病例數，還是進出口國的確診病例數，都對台灣失業率有顯著影響。此外，只有台灣和國外實施的部分疫情邊境管制政策對台灣的失業率產生了顯著影響。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper primarily examines the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 on the unemployment rate in Taiwan.It investigates the influence of the global pandemic on domestic unemployment by considering the number of confirmed cases worldwide and the COVID-19 border control policies implemented by Taiwan`s trading partners. The results of the study using ARDL analysis showed that both the number of confirmed cases within Taiwan and the number of confirmed cases in importing and exporting countries during the latter two periods significantly affect Taiwan`s unemployment rate. Moreover, only certain COVID-19 border control policies implemented in Taiwan and abroad exhibit a notable impact on Taiwan`s unemployment rate. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、緒論 p.1(一)研究動機與背景 p.1(二)研究目標 p.2第二章、COVID-19 病例數對台灣失業率的影響 p.3第三章、台灣對外的貿易往來與失業率的關係 p.5第四章、政府邊境管制政策的原因和由來 p.7第五章、實施邊境管制政策後，對經濟(勞動市場)的影響 p.9第六章、分析資料的介紹 p.10(一)確診人數 p.10(二)邊境管制政策 p.11(三)進出口加權平均數 p.11(四)失業率 p.12第七章、回歸分析 p.12(一)台灣當地確診人數對失業率的影響 p.13(二)台灣出口國的確診人數對失業率的影響 p.14(三)台灣進口國的確診人數對失業率的影響 p.16(四)台灣進出口國實施的政府邊境管制政策對失業率的影響 p.17(五)台灣公共交通限制對失業率的影響 p.18(六)台灣國際旅行限制對失業率的影響 p.19(七)台灣內部流動限制政策對失業率的影響 p.20(八)畢業季 Autumn 對失業率的影響 p.21第八章、結論 p.21參考文獻 p.22附錄 p.24 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2119496 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110351011 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) ARDL分析 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際貿易 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 失業率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 疫情邊境管制政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) unemployment rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) ARDL analysis en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 border control policies en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) international trade en_US dc.title (題名) 台灣貿易國的 Covid-19 確診人數與政府邊境管制政策對台灣失業率的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The impact of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Taiwan`s trading countries and the government`s border control policies on Taiwan`s unemployment rate en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hanming Fang, Chunmian Ge, Hanwei Huang & Hongbin Li. (2020, November).Pandemics, Global Supply Chains, and Local Labor Demand: Evidence from 100 Million Posted Jobs in China. NBER. https://www.nber.org/papers/w28072Lena Hensvik, Thomas Le Barbanchon, Roland Rathelot. (2020, May). Job Search during the COVID-19 Crisis. IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, p.5 https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13237/job-search-during-the-covid-19-crisisBaker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). Covid-induced economic uncertainty (Tech. Rep.). National Bureau of Economic Research, p.7Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26983.htmlSu, C. W., Dai, K., Ullah, s., & Andlib, z. (2021, May). COVID-19 Pandemic and Unemployment Dynamics in European Economies. Taylor & Francis Online Peer-Reviewed Journals and Articles, p.1761 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1912627?needAccess =true&role=buttonMurillo Campello, Gaurav Kankanhalli, Pradeep Muthukrishnan. (2020, May).Corporate Hiring under COVID-19: Labor Market Concentration, Downskilling, and Income Inequality. NBER, p.4https://www.nber.org/papers/w27208Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sebnem Kalemli-özcan, Veronika Penciakova Nick Sander. (2022, January). Estimating SME Failures in Real Time: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis. NBER, p.17- 21 https://www.nber.org/papers/w27877陳美菊、李淑麗 (201004 (10 期)) 全球經濟危機對台灣貿易之影響及對策, 國發會全球資訊網,p.281-283 https://reurl.cc/OEZvlXDave Altig, Scott Baker, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, Phil Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Nick Parker, Thomas Renault, Pawel Smietanka and Greg Thwaites (2020). Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic. IDEAS, p.5-8 https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v191y2020ics0047272720301389.htmlJui-Yao Liu & Tzeng-Ji Chen & Shinn-Jang Hwang. (2020, May). Analysis of Imported Cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan: A Nationwide Study. IDEAS, p.1-12 https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i9p3311-d356030.htmlAdam Birgersson. (2022). The Economic Impact of COVID-19 Border Restrictions on the Labor Market, A Comparative Case Study on the Border Municipalities in Sweden. DiVA, p.21-23 https://www.diva- portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1669314/FULLTEXT01.pdfPolicy Tracker from Policy Responses to COVID-19. (2021, July). International Monetary Fund. Retrieved on May 10, 2023 https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19Dimitris Drakopoulos, Rohit Goel, Fabio Natalucci, Evan Papageorgiou. (2020, October). Emerging and Frontier Markets: Policy Tools in Times of Financial Stress. IMF Blog. Retrieved on May 10, 2023 https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2020/10/23/blog-emerging-and-frontier- markets-policy-tools-in-times-of-financial-stress zh_TW
