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題名 疫情恐慌下的房市：恐慌購買情緒與感知稀缺情緒之分析
The Real Estate Market Under the Panic of the COVID-19 Pandemics: Analysis of Panic Buying and Perceived Scarcity
作者 劉祉岑
Liu, Chih-Tsen
貢獻者 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
劉祉岑
Liu, Chih-Tsen
關鍵詞 COVID-19
恐慌情緒
恐慌購買
感知稀缺
房地產市場
COVID-19
Panic
Panic Buying
Perceived Scarcity
Real Estate Market
日期 2023
上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 12:58:16 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究以Google Trends方法量化疫情期間台灣的恐慌情緒程度，並將恐慌情緒進一步細分為形成恐慌情緒與影響消費者市場的主要兩個情緒：恐慌購買情緒與感知稀缺情緒。探討所開發一般消費者與房市消費者之恐慌、恐慌購買與感知稀缺情緒變數與台灣房價指數、住宅交易量、房屋銷售天數與房價議價空間的動態影響關係。研究期間為2019年1月至2023年2月，探討COVID-19疫情期間相關情緒變數對於房市之影響，並進一部觀察情緒變數對於房市是否具有非線性的門檻效果以及雙向反饋的因果關係。

本研究實證，在COVID-19疫情期間，房價變化方面，房市感知稀缺情緒變動量在落後一期有正向影響。房屋銷售天數變化方面，房市感知稀缺情緒的變動量在落後二期有負向影響。住宅交易量變化方面，恐慌購買情緒的變動量在同期、落後一期有負向影響，落後二期時則有正向影響。房價議價空間方面，恐慌情緒的變動量在落後一期時有正向影響、恐慌購買情緒的變動量在落後一期有正向影響、房市恐慌購買情緒的變動量在落後一期有負向影響，而房市感知稀缺情緒的變動量在當期有負向影響。

此外，經實證結果得知，恐慌購買情緒變動量與房屋銷售天數成長率之間，以及房市感知稀缺情緒變動量與住宅交易量成長率之間存在非線性門檻效果。最後，研究結果顯示，情緒變數和房市資訊並無存在雙向因果關係。然而除了情緒的變動量會對房市資訊的成長率造成影響外，房市資訊的變化亦會影響恐慌情緒，引發恐慌情緒的變動。
This study uses Google Trends to quantify the degree of panic sentiment in Taiwan during the pandemic. And further splits panic sentiment into two main sentiments that shape panic sentiment and affect the consumer market: panic buying sentiment and perceived scarcity sentiment. To investigate the dynamic relationships between the panic, panic buying, and perceived scarcity sentiment variables developed for general consumers and housing market consumers and the housing prices, transaction volume, flow days, and bargaining space in Taiwan. The study period is from January 2019 to February 2023 to investigate the impact of sentiment variables on the housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic and to further observe whether the sentiment variables have non-linear threshold effects on the housing market and the causal relationship of bidirectional feedbacks.

This study demonstrates that the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive effect on the growth rate of housing price during lagged one period. For the flow days, the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment had a negative effect during lagged two period. As for the growth rate of transaction volume, the change in panic buying sentiment has a negative effect during the corresponding period and lagged one period, while it has a positive effect during lagged two period. In terms of bargaining space, the change in panic sentiment has a positive effect during lagged one period, the change in panic buying sentiment has a positive effect during lagged one period, the change in housing market panic buying sentiment has a negative effect during lagged one period, and the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment has a negative effect during the corresponding period.

In addition, the results of the study show that there is a non-linear threshold effect between the amount of change in panic buying sentiment and the growth rate of flow days, and between the amount of change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment and the growth rate of transaction volume. Finally, the results show that there is no bivariate causality between sentiment variables and housing market information. However, in addition to the effect of the change in sentiment on the growth rate of housing market information, the change in housing market information also affects panic sentiment and triggers the change in panic sentiment.
參考文獻 一、 中文文獻
朱芳妮, 楊茜文, 蘇子涵, & 陳明吉. (2020). 情緒會影響房市嗎? 指數編制與驗證. 住宅學報, 29(2), 35-68.
李東進、張亞佩與鄭軍，2015，稀缺感知對購買意向的影響-基於預期後悔的視角，系統工程，第33卷，第11期，75～80頁.
陳奕全. (2022). 行銷文字對不動產成交價之影響與預測: 文字探勘法，國立政治大學財務管理系，未出版碩士論文

二、 英文文獻
Alam, M. M., Wei, H., & Wahid, A. N. (2021). COVID‐19 outbreak and sectoral performance of the Australian stock market: An event study analysis. Australian economic papers, 60(3), 482-495.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of economic perspectives, 21(2), 129-151.
Balemi, N., Füss, R., & Weigand, A. (2021). COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 1-19.
Barnes, S. J., Diaz, M., & Arnaboldi, M. (2021). Understanding panic buying during COVID-19: A text analytics approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 169, 114360.
Barnes, S. J., Diaz, M., & Arnaboldi, M. (2021). Understanding panic buying during COVID-19: A text analytics approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 169, 114360.
Bergeaud, A., Eyméoud, J. B., Garcia, T., & Henricot, D. (2023). Working from home and corporate real estate. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 99, 103878.
Chen, C. Y., Lee, L., & Yap, A. J. (2017). Control deprivation motivates acquisition of utilitarian products. Journal of Consumer Research, 43(6), 1031-1047.
Choudhuri, S. (2021). Impact of COVID-19-Creating a Panic Buying. Academy of Marketing Studies Journal, 25, 1-8.
Clayton, J., Ling, D. C., & Naranjo, A. (2009). Commercial real estate valuation: Fundamentals versus investor sentiment. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38, 5-37.
Cohen, J. P., Friedt, F. L., & Lautier, J. P. (2022). The impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on New York City real estate: First evidence. Journal of Regional Science, 62(3), 858-888.
DeSousa, M., Reeve, C. L., & Peterman, A. H. (2020). Development and initial validation of the Perceived Scarcity Scale. Stress and Health, 36(2), 131-146.
Dietzel, M. A. (2016). Sentiment-based predictions of housing market turning points with Google trends. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
Granger, C. J. (1986). Developments in the study of cointegrated economic variables. Oxford Bulletin of economics and statistics, 48(3), 213-228.
Gunay, S., Bakry, W., & Al-Mohamad, S. (2021). The Australian stock market’s reaction to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and black summer bushfires: A sectoral analysis. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(4), 175.
Haila, A. (2000). Real estate in global cities: Singapore and Hong Kong as property states. Urban studies, 37(12), 2241-2256.
Herber, M. J., & Scherf, M. (2022). Rational Behavior or Mere Panic? The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Stock Markets. In Financial Transformations Beyond the COVID-19 Health Crisis (pp. 199-227).
Hui, E. C. M., & Wang, Z. (2014). Market sentiment in private housing market. Habitat International, 44, 375-385.
Keane, M., & Neal, T. (2021). Consumer panic in the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of econometrics, 220(1), 86-105.
Labad, J., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, A., Cobo, J., Punti, J., & Farre, J. M. (2021). A systematic review and realist synthesis on toilet paper hoarding: COVID or not COVID, that is the question. PeerJ, 9, e10771.
Lăzăroiu, G., Horak, J., & Valaskova, K. (2020). Scaring ourselves to death in the time of COVID-19: pandemic awareness, virus anxiety, and contagious fear. Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 19, 114-120.
Lins, S., Koch, R., Aquino, S., de Freitas Melo, C., & Costa, I. M. (2021). Anxiety, depression, and stress: Can mental health variables predict panic buying?. Journal of psychiatric research, 144, 434-440.
Martínez-Lorca, M., Martínez-Lorca, A., Criado-Álvarez, J. J., Armesilla, M. D. C., & Latorre, J. M. (2020). The fear of COVID-19 scale: Validation in spanish university students. Psychiatry research, 293, 113350.
Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z., Sohrabi, C., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C., ... & Agha, R. (2020). The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. International journal of surgery, 78, 185-193.
Nicomedes, C. J. C., & Avila, R. M. A. (2020). An analysis on the panic during COVID-19 pandemic through an online form. Journal of affective disorders, 276, 14-22.
Omar, N. A., Nazri, M. A., Ali, M. H., & Alam, S. S. (2021). The panic buying behavior of consumers during the COVID-19 pandemic: Examining the influences of uncertainty, perceptions of severity, perceptions of scarcity, and anxiety. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 62, 102600.
Rajkumar, R. P., & Arafat, S. Y. (2021). Model driven causal factors of panic buying and their implications for prevention: A systematic review. Psychiatry International, 2(3), 325-343.
Ruscheinsky, J. R., Lang, M., & Schäfers, W. (2018). Real estate media sentiment through textual analysis. Journal of Property Investment & Finance.
Sharma, C., Ganigara, M., Galeotti, C., Burns, J., Berganza, F. M., Hayes, D. A., ... & Bayry, J. (2021). Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and Kawasaki disease: a critical comparison. Nature Reviews Rheumatology, 17(12), 731-748.
Taylor, S. (2021). Understanding and managing pandemic-related panic buying. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 78, 102364.
Turnbull, G. K., & Zahirovic‐Herbert, V. (2011). Why do vacant houses sell for less: holding costs, bargaining power or stigma?. Real Estate Economics, 39(1), 19-43.
Yang, Y., Li, O., Peng, X., & Wang, L. (2020). Consumption trends during the COVID-19 crisis: How awe, coping, and social norms drive utilitarian purchases. Frontiers in psychology, 11, 588580.
Yoshino, S., Shimotsukasa, T., Hashimoto, Y., & Oshio, A. (2021). The association between personality traits and hoarding behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan. Personality and individual differences, 179, 110927.
Yuen, K. F., Wang, X., Ma, F., & Li, K. X. (2020). The psychological causes of panic buying following a health crisis. International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(10), 3513.
Zhou, Z. (2018). Housing market sentiment and intervention effectiveness: Evidence from China. Emerging Markets Review, 35, 91-110.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
110357014
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110357014
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳明吉zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Ming-Chien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 劉祉岑zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Liu, Chih-Tsenen_US
dc.creator (作者) 劉祉岑zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Liu, Chih-Tsenen_US
dc.date (日期) 2023en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 12:58:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 12:58:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 12:58:16 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110357014en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146281-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 110357014zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以Google Trends方法量化疫情期間台灣的恐慌情緒程度，並將恐慌情緒進一步細分為形成恐慌情緒與影響消費者市場的主要兩個情緒：恐慌購買情緒與感知稀缺情緒。探討所開發一般消費者與房市消費者之恐慌、恐慌購買與感知稀缺情緒變數與台灣房價指數、住宅交易量、房屋銷售天數與房價議價空間的動態影響關係。研究期間為2019年1月至2023年2月，探討COVID-19疫情期間相關情緒變數對於房市之影響，並進一部觀察情緒變數對於房市是否具有非線性的門檻效果以及雙向反饋的因果關係。

本研究實證，在COVID-19疫情期間，房價變化方面，房市感知稀缺情緒變動量在落後一期有正向影響。房屋銷售天數變化方面，房市感知稀缺情緒的變動量在落後二期有負向影響。住宅交易量變化方面，恐慌購買情緒的變動量在同期、落後一期有負向影響，落後二期時則有正向影響。房價議價空間方面，恐慌情緒的變動量在落後一期時有正向影響、恐慌購買情緒的變動量在落後一期有正向影響、房市恐慌購買情緒的變動量在落後一期有負向影響，而房市感知稀缺情緒的變動量在當期有負向影響。

此外，經實證結果得知，恐慌購買情緒變動量與房屋銷售天數成長率之間，以及房市感知稀缺情緒變動量與住宅交易量成長率之間存在非線性門檻效果。最後，研究結果顯示，情緒變數和房市資訊並無存在雙向因果關係。然而除了情緒的變動量會對房市資訊的成長率造成影響外，房市資訊的變化亦會影響恐慌情緒，引發恐慌情緒的變動。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study uses Google Trends to quantify the degree of panic sentiment in Taiwan during the pandemic. And further splits panic sentiment into two main sentiments that shape panic sentiment and affect the consumer market: panic buying sentiment and perceived scarcity sentiment. To investigate the dynamic relationships between the panic, panic buying, and perceived scarcity sentiment variables developed for general consumers and housing market consumers and the housing prices, transaction volume, flow days, and bargaining space in Taiwan. The study period is from January 2019 to February 2023 to investigate the impact of sentiment variables on the housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic and to further observe whether the sentiment variables have non-linear threshold effects on the housing market and the causal relationship of bidirectional feedbacks.

This study demonstrates that the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive effect on the growth rate of housing price during lagged one period. For the flow days, the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment had a negative effect during lagged two period. As for the growth rate of transaction volume, the change in panic buying sentiment has a negative effect during the corresponding period and lagged one period, while it has a positive effect during lagged two period. In terms of bargaining space, the change in panic sentiment has a positive effect during lagged one period, the change in panic buying sentiment has a positive effect during lagged one period, the change in housing market panic buying sentiment has a negative effect during lagged one period, and the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment has a negative effect during the corresponding period.

In addition, the results of the study show that there is a non-linear threshold effect between the amount of change in panic buying sentiment and the growth rate of flow days, and between the amount of change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment and the growth rate of transaction volume. Finally, the results show that there is no bivariate causality between sentiment variables and housing market information. However, in addition to the effect of the change in sentiment on the growth rate of housing market information, the change in housing market information also affects panic sentiment and triggers the change in panic sentiment.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究問題與目的 3
第三節 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 COVID-19 疫情發展與現況 5
第二節 恐慌情緒 6
第三節 恐慌購買情緒 8
第四節 感知稀缺情緒 12
第三章 研究方法 15
第一節 研究假說 15
第二節 研究方法與模型 19
第三節 GOOGLE TRENDS介紹與恐慌指數建構 25
第四節 變數定義與資料來源 36
第四章 資料與實證研究 42
第一節 樣本資料與分析 42
第二節 疫情恐慌情緒對房市影響 46
第三節 疫情恐慌情緒與房市的門檻效果 55
第四節 疫情恐慌情緒與房市的因果關係 60
第五章 結論與建議 64
第一節 研究結論 64
第二節 建議與限制 71
參考文獻 72		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1645232 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110357014en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 恐慌情緒zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 恐慌購買zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 感知稀缺zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房地產市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panicen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panic Buyingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Perceived Scarcityen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Real Estate Marketen_US
dc.title (題名) 疫情恐慌下的房市：恐慌購買情緒與感知稀缺情緒之分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Real Estate Market Under the Panic of the COVID-19 Pandemics: Analysis of Panic Buying and Perceived Scarcityen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文文獻
朱芳妮, 楊茜文, 蘇子涵, & 陳明吉. (2020). 情緒會影響房市嗎? 指數編制與驗證. 住宅學報, 29(2), 35-68.
李東進、張亞佩與鄭軍，2015，稀缺感知對購買意向的影響-基於預期後悔的視角，系統工程，第33卷，第11期，75～80頁.
陳奕全. (2022). 行銷文字對不動產成交價之影響與預測: 文字探勘法，國立政治大學財務管理系，未出版碩士論文

二、 英文文獻
Alam, M. M., Wei, H., & Wahid, A. N. (2021). COVID‐19 outbreak and sectoral performance of the Australian stock market: An event study analysis. Australian economic papers, 60(3), 482-495.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of economic perspectives, 21(2), 129-151.
Balemi, N., Füss, R., & Weigand, A. (2021). COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 1-19.
Barnes, S. J., Diaz, M., & Arnaboldi, M. (2021). Understanding panic buying during COVID-19: A text analytics approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 169, 114360.
Barnes, S. J., Diaz, M., & Arnaboldi, M. (2021). Understanding panic buying during COVID-19: A text analytics approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 169, 114360.
Bergeaud, A., Eyméoud, J. B., Garcia, T., & Henricot, D. (2023). Working from home and corporate real estate. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 99, 103878.
Chen, C. Y., Lee, L., & Yap, A. J. (2017). Control deprivation motivates acquisition of utilitarian products. Journal of Consumer Research, 43(6), 1031-1047.
Choudhuri, S. (2021). Impact of COVID-19-Creating a Panic Buying. Academy of Marketing Studies Journal, 25, 1-8.
Clayton, J., Ling, D. C., & Naranjo, A. (2009). Commercial real estate valuation: Fundamentals versus investor sentiment. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 38, 5-37.
Cohen, J. P., Friedt, F. L., & Lautier, J. P. (2022). The impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on New York City real estate: First evidence. Journal of Regional Science, 62(3), 858-888.
DeSousa, M., Reeve, C. L., & Peterman, A. H. (2020). Development and initial validation of the Perceived Scarcity Scale. Stress and Health, 36(2), 131-146.
Dietzel, M. A. (2016). Sentiment-based predictions of housing market turning points with Google trends. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
Granger, C. J. (1986). Developments in the study of cointegrated economic variables. Oxford Bulletin of economics and statistics, 48(3), 213-228.
Gunay, S., Bakry, W., & Al-Mohamad, S. (2021). The Australian stock market’s reaction to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and black summer bushfires: A sectoral analysis. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(4), 175.
Haila, A. (2000). Real estate in global cities: Singapore and Hong Kong as property states. Urban studies, 37(12), 2241-2256.
Herber, M. J., & Scherf, M. (2022). Rational Behavior or Mere Panic? The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Stock Markets. In Financial Transformations Beyond the COVID-19 Health Crisis (pp. 199-227).
Hui, E. C. M., & Wang, Z. (2014). Market sentiment in private housing market. Habitat International, 44, 375-385.
Keane, M., & Neal, T. (2021). Consumer panic in the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of econometrics, 220(1), 86-105.
Labad, J., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, A., Cobo, J., Punti, J., & Farre, J. M. (2021). A systematic review and realist synthesis on toilet paper hoarding: COVID or not COVID, that is the question. PeerJ, 9, e10771.
Lăzăroiu, G., Horak, J., & Valaskova, K. (2020). Scaring ourselves to death in the time of COVID-19: pandemic awareness, virus anxiety, and contagious fear. Linguistic and Philosophical Investigations, 19, 114-120.
Lins, S., Koch, R., Aquino, S., de Freitas Melo, C., & Costa, I. M. (2021). Anxiety, depression, and stress: Can mental health variables predict panic buying?. Journal of psychiatric research, 144, 434-440.
Martínez-Lorca, M., Martínez-Lorca, A., Criado-Álvarez, J. J., Armesilla, M. D. C., & Latorre, J. M. (2020). The fear of COVID-19 scale: Validation in spanish university students. Psychiatry research, 293, 113350.
Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z., Sohrabi, C., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C., ... & Agha, R. (2020). The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. International journal of surgery, 78, 185-193.
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