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題名 中央銀行於特定地區實施LTV上限政策對房市價格之影響
The Impact of Selective Credit Controls on House Price Implemented by the Central Bank of Taiwan on the Specific Policy Area作者 朱冠穎
Chu, Kuan-Ying貢獻者 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
朱冠穎
Chu, Kuan-Ying關鍵詞 針對性總體審慎政策
選擇性信用管制
貸款成數
斷點迴歸設計
外溢效果
Targeted Macroprudential Policy
Selective Credit Controls
Loan-to-Value
Regression Discontinuity Design
Spillover effect日期 2023 上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 12:59:08 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究旨在探討央行對特定地區所實施的選擇性信用管制政策（即貸款成數上限緊縮政策）是否為有效的管制政策，本研究所包含之樣本地區遍及全台，並依據政策形式將樣本地區劃分成政策實施區以及非政策實施區。研究期間為2010年1月至2016年12月，一共84期。從房市管制政策是否有效而言，針對政策實施區之分析結果顯示，央行對特定地區之管制會對房市價格產生壓制作用。延伸探討政策發布對非政策實施區房價的外溢效果則發現，政策的發布的確會使房價產生外溢效果，然而影響之方向則不一定。此次央行於2010年至2014年間的打炒房政策，有擴大管制區域之舉，故本研究亦延伸探討央行擴大政策實施範圍的背後動機為未雨綢繆或是亡羊補牢。結果顯示，即將被擴大納入的政策實施區，皆在前一期政策發布後產生房價上漲的外溢情形，因此判定央行擴大政策實施區之舉為亡羊補牢。綜合上述實證分析，央行於2010年至2014年針對特定地區之房市所進行的貸款成數上限緊縮政策，對政策實施區之房價皆呈現顯著的向下斷點，意即打炒房政策存在一定程度的房價壓制效果。同時也發現，只針對特定地區進行房價管制，會對鄰近地區甚至是非政策實施區產生房價外溢之現象，在方向性上則不一定。
The aim of this study is to investigate whether the selective credit controls on house price implemented by the central bank of Taiwan in specific regions are effective. The sample areas included in this study span across Taiwan and are divided into policy areas, non-policy areas, and quasi-policy areas based on the form of policies. The study period is from January 2010 to December 2016.In terms of the effectiveness of housing market control policies, results of the policy areas show that there are suppressing effect on house prices. When examining the spillover effects of house prices in non-policy areas, the results indicate the presence of spillover effect. This study also extends to explore the motives behind the expansion of the implementation area, whether it is a proactive measure or a remedial action. Since the house prices in the areas rose before being included in the implementation zone, it can be concluded that the expansion of the implementation area in both cases was a remedial action.Based on the empirical analysis above, the tightening of loan-to-value （LTV） limits implemented from 2010 to 2014 showed a statistically significant downward break on house prices in the policy areas. At the same time, it was also observed that when only specific areas were subjected to housing price controls, the spillover effects of house prices existed, although the direction of the effects was not necessarily the same.參考文獻 英文參考文獻Alam, Z., Alter, M. A., Eiseman, J., Gelos, M. R., Kang, M. H., Narita, M. M., Nier, E., and, Wang, N. (2019). Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database. International Monetary Fund.Auffhammer, M., and Kellogg, R. (2011). Clearing the Air? The Effects of Gasoline Content Regulation on Air Quality. 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國立政治大學
財務管理學系
110357021資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110357021 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳明吉 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Ming-Chi en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 朱冠穎 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chu, Kuan-Ying en_US dc.creator (作者) 朱冠穎 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chu, Kuan-Ying en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 12:59:08 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 12:59:08 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 12:59:08 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110357021 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146284 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110357021 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究旨在探討央行對特定地區所實施的選擇性信用管制政策（即貸款成數上限緊縮政策）是否為有效的管制政策，本研究所包含之樣本地區遍及全台，並依據政策形式將樣本地區劃分成政策實施區以及非政策實施區。研究期間為2010年1月至2016年12月，一共84期。從房市管制政策是否有效而言，針對政策實施區之分析結果顯示，央行對特定地區之管制會對房市價格產生壓制作用。延伸探討政策發布對非政策實施區房價的外溢效果則發現，政策的發布的確會使房價產生外溢效果，然而影響之方向則不一定。此次央行於2010年至2014年間的打炒房政策，有擴大管制區域之舉，故本研究亦延伸探討央行擴大政策實施範圍的背後動機為未雨綢繆或是亡羊補牢。結果顯示，即將被擴大納入的政策實施區，皆在前一期政策發布後產生房價上漲的外溢情形，因此判定央行擴大政策實施區之舉為亡羊補牢。綜合上述實證分析，央行於2010年至2014年針對特定地區之房市所進行的貸款成數上限緊縮政策，對政策實施區之房價皆呈現顯著的向下斷點，意即打炒房政策存在一定程度的房價壓制效果。同時也發現，只針對特定地區進行房價管制，會對鄰近地區甚至是非政策實施區產生房價外溢之現象，在方向性上則不一定。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The aim of this study is to investigate whether the selective credit controls on house price implemented by the central bank of Taiwan in specific regions are effective. The sample areas included in this study span across Taiwan and are divided into policy areas, non-policy areas, and quasi-policy areas based on the form of policies. The study period is from January 2010 to December 2016.In terms of the effectiveness of housing market control policies, results of the policy areas show that there are suppressing effect on house prices. When examining the spillover effects of house prices in non-policy areas, the results indicate the presence of spillover effect. This study also extends to explore the motives behind the expansion of the implementation area, whether it is a proactive measure or a remedial action. Since the house prices in the areas rose before being included in the implementation zone, it can be concluded that the expansion of the implementation area in both cases was a remedial action.Based on the empirical analysis above, the tightening of loan-to-value （LTV） limits implemented from 2010 to 2014 showed a statistically significant downward break on house prices in the policy areas. At the same time, it was also observed that when only specific areas were subjected to housing price controls, the spillover effects of house prices existed, although the direction of the effects was not necessarily the same. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的與問題 3第三節 研究流程 6第二章 文獻回顧 7第一節 總體審慎政策（MPP）與不動產市場 7第二節 房屋貸款成數（LTV）上限政策與不動產市場 10第三節 台灣施行選擇性性用管制之意義與歷史發展 12第四節 斷點迴歸設計分析法於資本市場之應用 17第三章 研究方法及設計 20第一節 研究期間及資料處理 203.1.1 透過多元迴歸模型轉換資料形式 213.1.2 多元迴歸模型之變數定義及說明 24第二節 斷點設計迴歸（RDD）分析法 293.2.1 Sharp RD之定義及處理效果 293.2.2 Sharp RD之估計 333.2.3 Fuzzy RD之定義及應用 333.2.4 Fuzzy RD之估計 37第三節 實證模型 39第四章 實證結果 41第一節 樣本資料之分析及敘述統計 41第二節 選擇性信用管制對房價之影響 434.2.1 LTV上限緊縮政策對各區域影響之圖形分析 434.2.2 LTV上限緊縮政策對各區域影響之結果表格說明 464.2.3 LTV上限緊縮政策對各區域影響之實證結果分析 47第三節 政策對鄰近地區房價之外溢效果分析 524.3.1 LTV上限緊縮政策對準政策實施區影響之圖形分析 524.3.2 LTV上限緊縮政策對準政策實施區影響之實證結果分析 54第四節 RDD模型設定及穩健性測試 564.4.1 RDD模型設定測試 574.4.2 RDD模型穩健性測試 58第五章 結論與建議 62第一節 研究結論 62第二節 建議與限制 65參考文獻 67 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2633455 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110357021 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 針對性總體審慎政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 選擇性信用管制 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貸款成數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 斷點迴歸設計 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 外溢效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Targeted Macroprudential Policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Selective Credit Controls en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Loan-to-Value en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regression Discontinuity Design en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Spillover effect en_US dc.title (題名) 中央銀行於特定地區實施LTV上限政策對房市價格之影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Selective Credit Controls on House Price Implemented by the Central Bank of Taiwan on the Specific Policy Area en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文參考文獻Alam, Z., Alter, M. 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