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題名 全球新冠疫情與臺灣對外貿易流量：貿易引力模型之應用分析
Global COVID-19 Pandemic and Taiwan`s Foreign Trade Flows: An Applied Analysis of the Gravity Model of Trade作者 鄭維安
Cheng, Wei-An貢獻者 徐則謙
Hsu, Tse-Chien
鄭維安
Cheng, Wei-An關鍵詞 貿易引力模型
新冠疫情
民主自由度
自由貿易協定
經濟合作協議
Gravity Model of Trade
COVID-19
Freedom scores
Free Trade Agreement
Economic Cooperation Agreement日期 2023 上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 13:09:56 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文針對臺灣的進出口總值資料進行貿易引力模型的實證研究，主要探討2020年與2021年全球新冠疫情嚴重肆虐期間，各國COVID-19確診人數、各國民主自由程度高低以及對臺經貿協議簽定與否如何影響臺灣的對外貿易表現。文中擴展傳統的貿易引力模型，除了使用臺灣主要貿易夥伴國的GDP、與臺灣之間的地理距離、語言共通與否、宗教相近性指數等數據之外，也加入各國確診人數、自由度分數以及是否與臺灣之間簽訂自由貿易協定（FTA）或經濟合作協議（ECA）等變數資料，以分析其各自對於臺灣進出口總值的影響。研究結果表明，臺灣貿易對象的確診人數與地理距離對臺灣的進出口總值呈顯著負相關；臺灣貿易對象的經濟規模、宗教近似程度以及對臺經貿協議的簽訂則對臺灣的進出口總值呈顯著正相關；而與貿易對手國之間的語言共通與否以及該國的民主自由程度高低則對於臺灣的進出口總值不具顯著相關性。
The purpose of this thesis was to conduct an empirical study on Taiwan`s import and export value data using the extended Gravity Model of Trade. The study primarily investigated how the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Taiwan`s major trading countries, the level of democracy and freedom of each country, and whether they have signed a free trade agreement or economic cooperation agreement with Taiwan or not, affect Taiwan`s foreign trade performance during the severe global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The results revealed that the number of confirmed cases and geographical distance of Taiwan`s trading partners have a significant negative correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value. Furthermore, the economic scale, religious proximity, and signing of a trade agreement with Taiwan by its trading partners have a significant positive correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value. However, the language commonality and level of democracy and freedom of the trading partner countries do not have a significant correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value.參考文獻 連柏凱（2016）。臺灣服務貿易競爭力之研究-引力模型之應用。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣台北。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/s9w3mr陳瀅如（2013）。兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)對台灣機械業之貿易效果-引力模型的驗證。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣台北。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/hy5t3y許向華（2021）。中美台貿易關係之影響因素-以貿易引力模型分析。國立臺北商業大學國際商務所碩士論文，未出版，台灣台北。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/4359th蔡鳳娟（2010）。台灣地區對外貿易流量模型之發展：以引力模型為基礎。國立中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣桃園。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/xd7368盧韋儒（2010）。運用引力模型來評估台灣與主要貿易夥伴之貿易流量。國立成功大學國際管理碩士在職專班碩士論文，未出版，台灣台南。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/uehjjuAnderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, 69, 106-116.Anderson, J.E., & van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, 93, 170-192.Cengiz, O., & Manga, M. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 6, 1195 - 1219.Cosar, K., & Thomas, B. (2020). The geopolitics of international trade in Southeast Asia. Review of World Economics, 157, 207-219.Dong, C.V., & Truong, H.Q. (2022). Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade in developing countries: evidence from Vietnam. International Journal of Emerging Markets.Feenstra, R. C. (2004). Advanced international trade : theory and evidence (pp. 144-152): Princeton University Press.Hassani, K., & Dost, S. (2020). Impact of COVID 19 on international trade and China’s trade. Turkish Economic Review, 7, 103-110.Lankhuizen, M.B., & de Groot, H. (2014). Cultural distance and international trade: a non-linear relationship. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 9, 19 - 25.Maliszewska, M., Mattoo, A., & van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2020). The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade: A Preliminary Assessment. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 9211, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3573211Masood, A., Ahmed, J., & Martínez‐Zarzoso, I. (2022). Gravity of Covid-19. Economics Bulletin, 42.Zainuddin, M.R., Shukor, M., Zulkifli, M.S., & Abdullah, A.H. (2021). Dynamics of Malaysia’s Bilateral Export Post Covid-19: A Gravity Model Analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 55(1), 51 – 69. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
110351009資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110351009 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 徐則謙 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hsu, Tse-Chien en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 鄭維安 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Cheng, Wei-An en_US dc.creator (作者) 鄭維安 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Cheng, Wei-An en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 13:09:56 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 13:09:56 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 13:09:56 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110351009 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146331 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110351009 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文針對臺灣的進出口總值資料進行貿易引力模型的實證研究，主要探討2020年與2021年全球新冠疫情嚴重肆虐期間，各國COVID-19確診人數、各國民主自由程度高低以及對臺經貿協議簽定與否如何影響臺灣的對外貿易表現。文中擴展傳統的貿易引力模型，除了使用臺灣主要貿易夥伴國的GDP、與臺灣之間的地理距離、語言共通與否、宗教相近性指數等數據之外，也加入各國確診人數、自由度分數以及是否與臺灣之間簽訂自由貿易協定（FTA）或經濟合作協議（ECA）等變數資料，以分析其各自對於臺灣進出口總值的影響。研究結果表明，臺灣貿易對象的確診人數與地理距離對臺灣的進出口總值呈顯著負相關；臺灣貿易對象的經濟規模、宗教近似程度以及對臺經貿協議的簽訂則對臺灣的進出口總值呈顯著正相關；而與貿易對手國之間的語言共通與否以及該國的民主自由程度高低則對於臺灣的進出口總值不具顯著相關性。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of this thesis was to conduct an empirical study on Taiwan`s import and export value data using the extended Gravity Model of Trade. The study primarily investigated how the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Taiwan`s major trading countries, the level of democracy and freedom of each country, and whether they have signed a free trade agreement or economic cooperation agreement with Taiwan or not, affect Taiwan`s foreign trade performance during the severe global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The results revealed that the number of confirmed cases and geographical distance of Taiwan`s trading partners have a significant negative correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value. Furthermore, the economic scale, religious proximity, and signing of a trade agreement with Taiwan by its trading partners have a significant positive correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value. However, the language commonality and level of democracy and freedom of the trading partner countries do not have a significant correlation with Taiwan`s import and export value. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 新冠疫情相關研究與臺灣的引力模型實證應用 3第三節 研究目的與方法 5第二章 研究方法 7第一節 實證模型設定 7第二節 變數說明與資料來源 8第三章 實證分析結果 19第四章 結論 23參考文獻 26 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1782607 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110351009 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易引力模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新冠疫情 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民主自由度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自由貿易協定 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟合作協議 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Gravity Model of Trade en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Freedom scores en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Free Trade Agreement en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic Cooperation Agreement en_US dc.title (題名) 全球新冠疫情與臺灣對外貿易流量：貿易引力模型之應用分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Global COVID-19 Pandemic and Taiwan`s Foreign Trade Flows: An Applied Analysis of the Gravity Model of Trade en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 連柏凱（2016）。臺灣服務貿易競爭力之研究-引力模型之應用。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣台北。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/s9w3mr陳瀅如（2013）。兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)對台灣機械業之貿易效果-引力模型的驗證。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣台北。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/hy5t3y許向華（2021）。中美台貿易關係之影響因素-以貿易引力模型分析。國立臺北商業大學國際商務所碩士論文，未出版，台灣台北。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/4359th蔡鳳娟（2010）。台灣地區對外貿易流量模型之發展：以引力模型為基礎。國立中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，未出版，台灣桃園。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/xd7368盧韋儒（2010）。運用引力模型來評估台灣與主要貿易夥伴之貿易流量。國立成功大學國際管理碩士在職專班碩士論文，未出版，台灣台南。Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/11296/uehjjuAnderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, 69, 106-116.Anderson, J.E., & van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, 93, 170-192.Cengiz, O., & Manga, M. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 6, 1195 - 1219.Cosar, K., & Thomas, B. (2020). The geopolitics of international trade in Southeast Asia. Review of World Economics, 157, 207-219.Dong, C.V., & Truong, H.Q. (2022). Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade in developing countries: evidence from Vietnam. International Journal of Emerging Markets.Feenstra, R. C. (2004). Advanced international trade : theory and evidence (pp. 144-152): Princeton University Press.Hassani, K., & Dost, S. (2020). Impact of COVID 19 on international trade and China’s trade. Turkish Economic Review, 7, 103-110.Lankhuizen, M.B., & de Groot, H. (2014). Cultural distance and international trade: a non-linear relationship. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 9, 19 - 25.Maliszewska, M., Mattoo, A., & van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2020). The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade: A Preliminary Assessment. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 9211, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3573211Masood, A., Ahmed, J., & Martínez‐Zarzoso, I. (2022). Gravity of Covid-19. Economics Bulletin, 42.Zainuddin, M.R., Shukor, M., Zulkifli, M.S., & Abdullah, A.H. (2021). Dynamics of Malaysia’s Bilateral Export Post Covid-19: A Gravity Model Analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 55(1), 51 – 69. zh_TW
