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題名 運用文字探勘技術探討管理階層討論與分析的風險揭露與總經理異動之關聯性
Applying text mining technology to explore the correlation between MD&A risk disclosure and CEO turnover
作者 張嫚驛
Chang, Man-Yi
貢獻者 李佳玲
Lee, Chia-Ling
張嫚驛
Chang, Man-Yi
關鍵詞 風險揭露
管理階層討論與分析
文本分析
總經理異動
Risk disclosure
MD&A
Textual analysis
CEO turnover
日期 2023
上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 13:23:25 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究聚焦於公司與風險相關文字性揭露之語調及主題是否能提供總經理異動的相關資訊。過去文獻指出,公司於年報中之風險揭露對於投資人而言具備資訊價值。有鑑於此,本研究以2007年至2019年美國S&P1500之公司為研究對象,探討於10K年報MD&A章節中風險揭露之語調及LDA主題模型所辨識出之風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動的關聯性。實證結果顯示,MD&A風險揭露之悲觀語調與揭露隔年總經理異動呈顯著正相關;此外,風險揭露中與當期財務績效相關及與訴訟相關之風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動亦呈顯著正相關。然而,風險揭露中與繼續經營相關的風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動則不具相關性。額外分析進一步顯示出MD&A風險揭露之語調及風險主題僅與揭露隔年總經理異動有關,而與揭露後兩年之總經理異動較不具相關性;且董事會在做總經理解僱決策時,MD&A風險揭露之悲觀語調及與當期財務績效相關之風險主題是其考量的重點。藉由本研究之發現,除了延伸過去對MD&A資訊價值的分析,也可以作為SEC日後制定及改善相關揭露準則的依據。
This paper examines whether the tone and topic of corporate textual disclosures related to risk and uncertainty conveys relevant information about CEO turnover. Prior studies have shown that risk disclosures in corporate annual reports provide incremental information for investors. Using observations of firms listed in US Standard & Poor 1500, this study investigates the correlation between the tone and risk topics identified via Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model of textual risk disclosures in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of 10-K filings and subsequent CEO turnover . The results indicates that the probability of subsequent CEO turnover is positively associated with the pessimism of the language used in the MD&A risk disclosures. In addition, the risk topics related to corporate current financial performance and lawsuit disclosed in the risk disclosures is also positively associated with subsequent CEO turnover. However, we find no correlation between the risk topics related to going concern and subsequent CEO turnover. Additional analyses further reveal that the tone and risk topics in MD&A risk disclosures are only associated with CEO turnover in the subsequent year, and are less correlated with CEO turnover in the following two years after disclosure. Moreover, the pessimistic tone in MD&A risk disclosures and risk topics related to current financial performance are key considerations for the board of directors when making CEO dismissal decisions. Based on the findings of this study, we extend prior literatures on the information value of MD&A, and the findings can also serve as a basis for the SEC to formulate and improve relevant disclosure guidelines in the future.
參考文獻 Abernethy, M. A., Y. F. Kuang, and B. Qin. 2019. The relation between strategy, CEO selection, and firm performance. Contemporary Accounting Research 36 (3): 1575-1606.
Aharony, J., C. Liu, and A. Yawson. 2015. Corporate litigation and executive turnover. Journal of Corporate Finance 34: 268-292.
Asthana, S., and S. Balsam. 2010. The impact of changes in firm performance and risk on director turnover. Review of Accounting and Finance 9 (3): 244-263.
Aven, T. 2016. Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation. European Journal of Operational Research 253 (1): 1-13.
Bao, Y., and A. Datta. 2014. Simultaneously discovering and quantifying risk types from textual risk disclosures. Management Science 60 (6): 1371-1391.
Barron, O. E., C. O. Kile, and T. B. O`Keefe. 1999. MD&A Quality as Measured by the SEC and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 (1): 75-109.
Blei, D. M., A.Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan. 2003. Latent Dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research 3 (2): 993–1022.
Brown, N. C., R. M. Crowley, and W. B. Elliott. 2020. What are you saying? Using topic to detect financial misreporting. Journal of Accounting Research 58 (1): 237-291.
Bryan, S. H. 1997. Incremental information content of required disclosures contained in Management Discussion and Analysis. The Accounting Review 72 (2): 258-301
Campbell, J. L., H. Chen, D. S. Dhaliwal, H. Lu, and L. B. Steele. 2014. The information content of mandatory risk factor disclosures in corporate filings. Review of Accounting Studies 19 (1): 396–455.
Chang J., J.-L. Boyd-Graber, S. Gerrish, C. Wang, and DM. Blei. 2009. Reading tea leaves: How humans interpret topic models. Advances in Neural Information Processing System 32: 288-296.
Cole, C. J., and C. L. Jones. 2005. Management discussion and analysis: A review and implications for future research. Journal of Accounting Literature 24: 135-174.
Cole, C. J., and C. L. Jones. 2015. The quality of management forecasts of capital expenditures and store openings in MD&A. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 30 (2): 127-149
Cooper, E. 2017. Corporate social responsibility, gender, and CEO turnover. Managerial Finance 43(5): 528-544.
Cornelli, F., Z. Kominek, and A. Ljungqvist. 2013. Monitoring managers: Does it matter?. The Journal of Finance 68: 431-481.
Coughlan, A. T., and R. M. Schmidt. 1985. Executive compensation, management turnover and firm performance: An empirical investigation. Journal of Accounting and Economics 7: 43-66.
Dah, M. A., M. B. Frye, and M. Hurst. 2014. “Board changes and CEO turnover: The unanticipated effects of the Sarbanes-Oxly Act. Journal of Banking and Finance 41: 97-108.
Davis, A. K., and I. Tama-Sweet. 2012. Managers’ use of language across alternative disclosure outlets: Earnings press releases versus MD&A. Contemporary Accounting Research 29 (3): 804-837.
Defond, M. L., M. Hung. 2004. Investor protection and corporate governance: Evidence from worldwide CEO turnover. Journal of Accounting Research 42 (2): 269-312.
Denis, D. J., D. K. Denis, and A. Sarin. 1997. Ownership structure and top executive turnover. Journal of Financial Economics 45: 193-221.
Desai, H., C. E. Hogan, and M. S. Wilkins. 2006. The reputational penalty for aggressive accounting: Earnings restatements and management turnover. The Accounting Review 81(1): 83-112.
Dyer, T., M. Lang, and L. Stice-Lawrence. 2017. The evolution of 10-K textual disclosure: Evidence from Latent Dirichlet Allocation. Journal of Accounting and Economics 64: 221-245.
Eckbo, B. E., K. S. Thorburn, and W. Wang. 2016. How costly is corporate bankruptcy for the CEO? Journal of Financial Economics 121 (2016): 210-229.
Engel, E., R. M. Hayes, and X. Want. 2003. CEO turnover and properties of accounting information. Journal of Accounting and Economics 36: 197-226.
Feldman, R., S. Govindaraj, J. Livnat, and B. Segal. 2010. Management’s tone change, post earnings announcement drift and accruals. Review of Accounting Study 15 (4): 915-953.
Fortin, A., and A. Berthelot. 2012. MD&A risk disclosures and nonprofessional investors` perceptions and investment decisions. Advances in Accounting Behavioral Research 15: 1-28.
Gentry, R. J., J. S. Harrison, T. J. Quigley, and S. Boivie. 2021. A database of CEO turnover and dismissal in S&P 1500 firms, 2000-2018. Strategic Management Journal 42: 968-991.
Gilson, S. C., and M. R. Vetsuypens. 1993. CEO compensation in financially distressed firms: an empirical analysis. Journal of Finance 48: 425-458.
Healy, P., A. Hutton, and K. Palepu. 1999. Stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 (3): 485-520.
Himam, M.-F., and E. Masitoh. 2020. The effect of audit quality, liquidity, solvability, and profitability on audit going concern opinion. Jurnal Akuntansi, Audit dan Sistem Informasi Akuntansi 4 (1): 104-115.
Huang K.-W., and Z. Li. 2011. A multilabel text classification algorithm for labeling risk factors in SEC form 10-K. ACM Transactions on Management Information Systems 2 (3):1-19.
Huang, A. H., R. Lehavy, A. Y. Zang, and R. Zheng. 2017. Analyst information discovery and interpretation roles: A topic modeling approach. Management Science 64 (6): 2833-2855.
Hubbard, T. D., D. M. Christensen, and S. D. Graffin. 2017. Higher highs and lower lows: The role of corporate social responsibility in CEO dismissal. Strategic Management Journal 38: 2255-2265.
Huson, M. R., R. Parrino, and L. T. Starks. 2001. Internal monitoring mechanisms and CEO turnover: A long-term perspective. Journal of Finance 56 (6): 2265-2297.
Kang T., D. H. Park, and I. Han. 2018. Beyond the numbers: The effect of 10-K tone on firms’ performance predictions using text analytics. Telematics and Informatics 35(2): 370-381.
Kaplan, S. N., 1994. Top executive rewards and firm performance: a comparison of Japan and the United States. Journal of Political Economy 102: 510-546.
Kim, A. 2011. Default probability and CEO turnover for non-distressed firms. Singapore, Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University.
Ko, C., P. Lee, and A. Anandarajan. 2019. The impact of operational risk incidents and moderating influence of corporate governance on credit risk and firm performance. International Journal of Accounting & Information Management 27(1): 96-110.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
110353007
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353007
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李佳玲zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lee, Chia-Lingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張嫚驛zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Man-Yien_US
dc.creator (作者) 張嫚驛zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chang, Man-Yien_US
dc.date (日期) 2023en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 13:23:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 13:23:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 13:23:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110353007en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146387-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 110353007zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究聚焦於公司與風險相關文字性揭露之語調及主題是否能提供總經理異動的相關資訊。過去文獻指出,公司於年報中之風險揭露對於投資人而言具備資訊價值。有鑑於此,本研究以2007年至2019年美國S&P1500之公司為研究對象,探討於10K年報MD&A章節中風險揭露之語調及LDA主題模型所辨識出之風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動的關聯性。實證結果顯示,MD&A風險揭露之悲觀語調與揭露隔年總經理異動呈顯著正相關;此外,風險揭露中與當期財務績效相關及與訴訟相關之風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動亦呈顯著正相關。然而,風險揭露中與繼續經營相關的風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動則不具相關性。額外分析進一步顯示出MD&A風險揭露之語調及風險主題僅與揭露隔年總經理異動有關,而與揭露後兩年之總經理異動較不具相關性;且董事會在做總經理解僱決策時,MD&A風險揭露之悲觀語調及與當期財務績效相關之風險主題是其考量的重點。藉由本研究之發現,除了延伸過去對MD&A資訊價值的分析,也可以作為SEC日後制定及改善相關揭露準則的依據。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper examines whether the tone and topic of corporate textual disclosures related to risk and uncertainty conveys relevant information about CEO turnover. Prior studies have shown that risk disclosures in corporate annual reports provide incremental information for investors. Using observations of firms listed in US Standard & Poor 1500, this study investigates the correlation between the tone and risk topics identified via Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model of textual risk disclosures in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of 10-K filings and subsequent CEO turnover . The results indicates that the probability of subsequent CEO turnover is positively associated with the pessimism of the language used in the MD&A risk disclosures. In addition, the risk topics related to corporate current financial performance and lawsuit disclosed in the risk disclosures is also positively associated with subsequent CEO turnover. However, we find no correlation between the risk topics related to going concern and subsequent CEO turnover. Additional analyses further reveal that the tone and risk topics in MD&A risk disclosures are only associated with CEO turnover in the subsequent year, and are less correlated with CEO turnover in the following two years after disclosure. Moreover, the pessimistic tone in MD&A risk disclosures and risk topics related to current financial performance are key considerations for the board of directors when making CEO dismissal decisions. Based on the findings of this study, we extend prior literatures on the information value of MD&A, and the findings can also serve as a basis for the SEC to formulate and improve relevant disclosure guidelines in the future.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 壹、緒論 1
一、研究動機與目的 1
二、研究架構 3
貳、文獻探討與假說發展 4
一、MD&A的資訊價值 4
二、企業營運之風險與總經理異動 5
三、自動文本分析技術 6
四、研究假說 7
參、研究方法 10
一、樣本選取 10
二、LDA主題辨識與標記過程 12
三、實證模型與變數衡量 17
肆、實證結果與分析 23
一、敘述性統計 23
二、相關性分析 27
三、迴歸分析 29
四、穩健性測試 33
五、額外分析 41
伍、結論與建議 53
ㄧ、研究結論 53
二、研究限制與建議 55
參考文獻 56
附錄 62
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 3023133 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353007en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 風險揭露zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 管理階層討論與分析zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 文本分析zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總經理異動zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Risk disclosureen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) MD&Aen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Textual analysisen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CEO turnoveren_US
dc.title (題名) 運用文字探勘技術探討管理階層討論與分析的風險揭露與總經理異動之關聯性zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Applying text mining technology to explore the correlation between MD&A risk disclosure and CEO turnoveren_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abernethy, M. A., Y. F. Kuang, and B. Qin. 2019. The relation between strategy, CEO selection, and firm performance. Contemporary Accounting Research 36 (3): 1575-1606.
Aharony, J., C. Liu, and A. Yawson. 2015. Corporate litigation and executive turnover. Journal of Corporate Finance 34: 268-292.
Asthana, S., and S. Balsam. 2010. The impact of changes in firm performance and risk on director turnover. Review of Accounting and Finance 9 (3): 244-263.
Aven, T. 2016. Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation. European Journal of Operational Research 253 (1): 1-13.
Bao, Y., and A. Datta. 2014. Simultaneously discovering and quantifying risk types from textual risk disclosures. Management Science 60 (6): 1371-1391.
Barron, O. E., C. O. Kile, and T. B. O`Keefe. 1999. MD&A Quality as Measured by the SEC and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 (1): 75-109.
Blei, D. M., A.Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan. 2003. Latent Dirichlet allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research 3 (2): 993–1022.
Brown, N. C., R. M. Crowley, and W. B. Elliott. 2020. What are you saying? Using topic to detect financial misreporting. Journal of Accounting Research 58 (1): 237-291.
Bryan, S. H. 1997. Incremental information content of required disclosures contained in Management Discussion and Analysis. The Accounting Review 72 (2): 258-301
Campbell, J. L., H. Chen, D. S. Dhaliwal, H. Lu, and L. B. Steele. 2014. The information content of mandatory risk factor disclosures in corporate filings. Review of Accounting Studies 19 (1): 396–455.
Chang J., J.-L. Boyd-Graber, S. Gerrish, C. Wang, and DM. Blei. 2009. Reading tea leaves: How humans interpret topic models. Advances in Neural Information Processing System 32: 288-296.
Cole, C. J., and C. L. Jones. 2005. Management discussion and analysis: A review and implications for future research. Journal of Accounting Literature 24: 135-174.
Cole, C. J., and C. L. Jones. 2015. The quality of management forecasts of capital expenditures and store openings in MD&A. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 30 (2): 127-149
Cooper, E. 2017. Corporate social responsibility, gender, and CEO turnover. Managerial Finance 43(5): 528-544.
Cornelli, F., Z. Kominek, and A. Ljungqvist. 2013. Monitoring managers: Does it matter?. The Journal of Finance 68: 431-481.
Coughlan, A. T., and R. M. Schmidt. 1985. Executive compensation, management turnover and firm performance: An empirical investigation. Journal of Accounting and Economics 7: 43-66.
Dah, M. A., M. B. Frye, and M. Hurst. 2014. “Board changes and CEO turnover: The unanticipated effects of the Sarbanes-Oxly Act. Journal of Banking and Finance 41: 97-108.
Davis, A. K., and I. Tama-Sweet. 2012. Managers’ use of language across alternative disclosure outlets: Earnings press releases versus MD&A. Contemporary Accounting Research 29 (3): 804-837.
Defond, M. L., M. Hung. 2004. Investor protection and corporate governance: Evidence from worldwide CEO turnover. Journal of Accounting Research 42 (2): 269-312.
Denis, D. J., D. K. Denis, and A. Sarin. 1997. Ownership structure and top executive turnover. Journal of Financial Economics 45: 193-221.
Desai, H., C. E. Hogan, and M. S. Wilkins. 2006. The reputational penalty for aggressive accounting: Earnings restatements and management turnover. The Accounting Review 81(1): 83-112.
Dyer, T., M. Lang, and L. Stice-Lawrence. 2017. The evolution of 10-K textual disclosure: Evidence from Latent Dirichlet Allocation. Journal of Accounting and Economics 64: 221-245.
Eckbo, B. E., K. S. Thorburn, and W. Wang. 2016. How costly is corporate bankruptcy for the CEO? Journal of Financial Economics 121 (2016): 210-229.
Engel, E., R. M. Hayes, and X. Want. 2003. CEO turnover and properties of accounting information. Journal of Accounting and Economics 36: 197-226.
Feldman, R., S. Govindaraj, J. Livnat, and B. Segal. 2010. Management’s tone change, post earnings announcement drift and accruals. Review of Accounting Study 15 (4): 915-953.
Fortin, A., and A. Berthelot. 2012. MD&A risk disclosures and nonprofessional investors` perceptions and investment decisions. Advances in Accounting Behavioral Research 15: 1-28.
Gentry, R. J., J. S. Harrison, T. J. Quigley, and S. Boivie. 2021. A database of CEO turnover and dismissal in S&P 1500 firms, 2000-2018. Strategic Management Journal 42: 968-991.
Gilson, S. C., and M. R. Vetsuypens. 1993. CEO compensation in financially distressed firms: an empirical analysis. Journal of Finance 48: 425-458.
Healy, P., A. Hutton, and K. Palepu. 1999. Stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary Accounting Research 16 (3): 485-520.
Himam, M.-F., and E. Masitoh. 2020. The effect of audit quality, liquidity, solvability, and profitability on audit going concern opinion. Jurnal Akuntansi, Audit dan Sistem Informasi Akuntansi 4 (1): 104-115.
Huang K.-W., and Z. Li. 2011. A multilabel text classification algorithm for labeling risk factors in SEC form 10-K. ACM Transactions on Management Information Systems 2 (3):1-19.
Huang, A. H., R. Lehavy, A. Y. Zang, and R. Zheng. 2017. Analyst information discovery and interpretation roles: A topic modeling approach. Management Science 64 (6): 2833-2855.
Hubbard, T. D., D. M. Christensen, and S. D. Graffin. 2017. Higher highs and lower lows: The role of corporate social responsibility in CEO dismissal. Strategic Management Journal 38: 2255-2265.
Huson, M. R., R. Parrino, and L. T. Starks. 2001. Internal monitoring mechanisms and CEO turnover: A long-term perspective. Journal of Finance 56 (6): 2265-2297.
Kang T., D. H. Park, and I. Han. 2018. Beyond the numbers: The effect of 10-K tone on firms’ performance predictions using text analytics. Telematics and Informatics 35(2): 370-381.
Kaplan, S. N., 1994. Top executive rewards and firm performance: a comparison of Japan and the United States. Journal of Political Economy 102: 510-546.
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