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題名 經理人盈餘預測與成本僵固性之關聯
The Association Between Management Earnings Forecasts and Cost Stickiness作者 梁思蘋
Liang, Sz-Ping貢獻者 潘健民
梁思蘋
Liang, Sz-Ping關鍵詞 強制揭露盈餘預測
經理人盈餘預測
成本僵固性
Mandatory earnings forecasts
Management earnings forecasts
Cost stickiness日期 2023 上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 13:24:42 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究以日本東京證券交易所上市企業為對象，探討經理人盈餘預測與成本僵固性之關聯。成本僵固性為隨著產銷量減少，成本的下降幅度卻小於產銷量增加時上升的幅度，其主係因經理人對未來之預期影響其對企業承諾資源之決策，進而造成成本僵固性之現象。在日本，大多數企業會評估且發布未來一年之盈餘預測，當經理人盈餘預測準確度高，表示經理人對於未來產業景氣是否復甦、外部需求不確定性之趨勢判斷較為準確，可能不會裁撤大量已投入成本，會保留產能以供需求回升，以避免往後發生不必要之調整成本，進而影響成本僵固性。本研究之實證結果顯示，與過去成本僵固性文獻一致，日本企業普遍本身即存有成本僵固性，實證結果亦顯示盈餘預測準確之日本企業，亦會導致企業成本呈現僵固性之現象。進一步分析後，本研究發現疫情前預測較準確之企業會導致成本僵固性；反之，疫情後兩者則不具顯著相關性。本研究亦進一步測試經理人預測是否樂觀且是否準確與成本僵固性之關聯性，實證結果發現預測較準確且悲觀之企業以及預測較不準確且樂觀之企業，會導致成本僵固性；預測較不準確且悲觀之企業反而會導致成本反僵固性；而預測較為準確且樂觀之企業則與成本僵固性無顯著關係。
This study examines the association between management earnings forecasts and cost stickiness using data from firm listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan. Cost stickiness refers to the phenomenon of asymmetric decrease in sales in relation to the decrease in SG&A expenses. This is primarily due to managerial expectations about the future propensity, which influence their decision-making regarding resource commitments that leads to cost stickiness.Empirical results of this study show that Japanese firms generally exhibit cost stickiness. The results also show that firms with management accurate earnings forecasts are cost stickiness. Furthermore, there is an association between the accuracy of management earnings forecasts before COVID-19 and such association cannot be found since the pandemic of COVID-19.At last, this study further examines the association between manager forecast optimism and cost stickiness. The empirical results reveal that accurate and pessimistic forecasts, as well as inaccurate and optimistic forecasts, are associated with cost stickiness. On the other hand, inaccurate and pessimistic forecasts lead to cost anti-stickiness. However, there is no significant association between cost stickiness and accurate and optimistic forecasts.參考文獻 Anderson, M. C., R. D. Banker, and S. N. Janakiraman. 2003. Are selling, general, and administrative costs “sticky”? Journal of Accounting Research 41 (1): 47-63.Ajinkya, B., S. Bhojraj, and P. Sengupta. 2005. The association between outside directors, institutional investors and the properties of management earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 43 (3): 343-376.Amiram, D., E. Owens, and O. Rozenbaum. 2016. Do information releases increase or decrease information asymmetry? New evidence from analyst forecast announcements. Journal of Accounting and Economics 62 (1): 121-138.Bamber, L. S. and Y. S. Cheon. 1998. Discretionary management earnings forecast disclosures: Antecedents and outcomes associated with forecast venue and forecast specificity. Journal of Accounting Research 36 (2): 167-190.Banker, R. D. and L. Chen. 2006. Predicting earning using a model of cost variability and cost stickiness. Accounting Review 81 (2): 285-307.Banker, R. D., D. Byzalov, and J. M. Plehn-Dujowich. 2014. Demand uncertainty and cost behavior. Accounting Review 89 (3): 839-865.Banker, R. D., D. Byzalov, M. Ciftci, and R. Mashruwala. 2014. The moderating effect of prior sales changes on asymmetric cost behavior. Journal of Management Accounting Research 26 (2): 221-242.Banker , R. D., R. Huang, and Y. Yan. 2022. Flexible or rigid? Evidence on managerial ability and cost structure. Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper No. 2019-05-01.Botosan, C. A., 1997. Disclosure level and the cost of equity capital. Accounting Review72 (3): 323-349.Callen, J. L., J. Livnat, and S. G. Ryan. 1996. Capital expenditures: Value-relevance and fourth-quarter effects. Journal of Financial Statement Analysis 1 (3): 13-24.Chen C. X., T. Gores, and J. Nasev. 2013. Managerial overconfidence and cost stickiness. SSRN. Accessed 13 Jan 2019.Chen, C. X., H. Lu, and T. Souglannis. 2012. The agency problem, corporate governance, and the asymmetrical behavior of selling, general, and administrative costs. Contemporary Accounting Research 29 (1): 252-282.Cho, M., Y. D. Hah, and O. Kim. 2011. Optimistic bias in management forecasts by Japanese firms to avoid forecasting losses. The International Journal of Accounting 46 (1): 79-101.Cooper, R. W. and R. S. Kaplan. 1998. The Design of Cost Management Systems: Text, Cases, and Readings (2nd ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Diamond, D. W. and R. E. Verrecchia. 1991. Disclosure, liquidity, and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 46 (4): 1325-1359.Frost, C. A. 1996. Characteristics and information value of corporate disclosures of forward-looking information in global equity markets. Working paper, Washington University.Francis, J. R., I. K. Khurana, and R. Pereira. 2005. Disclosure incentives and effects on cost of capital around the world. Accounting Review 80 (4): 1125-1162.Jensen, M. C. and W. H. Meckling. 1976. Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics 3 (4): 305-360.Kato, K., D. J. Skinner, and M. Kunimura. 2009. Management forecasts in Japan: An empirical study of forecasts that are effectively mandated. Accounting Review 84 (5): 1575-1606.Kama, I. and D. Weiss. 2013. Do earnings targets and managerial incentives affect sticky costs? Journal of Accounting Research 51 (1): 201-224.Lennox, C. S. and C. W. Park. 2006. The informativeness of earnings and management’s issuance of earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 42 (3): 439-458.McConnell, J. J. and C. J. Muscarella. 1985. Corporate capital expenditure decisions and the market value of the firm. Journal of Financial Economics 14 (3): 399-422.Noreen, E. 1991. Conditions under which activity-based cost systems provide relevant costs. Journal of Management Accounting Research 3 (4): 159-168.Noreen, E. and N. Soderstrom. 1997. The accuracy of proportional cost models: Evidence from hospital service departments. Review of Accounting Studies 2 (1): 89-114.Nagata, K. and P. Nguyen. 2017. Ownership structure and disclosure quality: Evidence from management forecasts revisions in Japan. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 36: 451-467.Opler, T., L. Pinkowitz, R. Stulz, and R. Williamson. 1999. The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings. Journal of Financial Economics 52 (1): 3-46.Ota, K. 2010. The value relevance of management forecasts and their impact on analysts’ forecasts: Empirical evidence from Japan. Abacus 46 (1): 28-59.Sengupta, P. 1998. Corporate disclosure and the cost of debt. Accounting Review 73 (4): 459-474.Smith, Jr. C. W. and R. L. Watts. 1992. The investment opportunity set and corporate financing, dividend, and compensation policies. Journal of Financial Economics 32 (3): 263-292.Subramaniam, C. and M. L. Weidenmier. 2003. Additional evidence on the sticky behavior of costs. Advances in Management Accounting 26: 275-305.Weiss, D. 2010. Cost behavior and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Accounting Review 85 (4): 1441-1471.Wang, I. Y. 2007. Private earnings guidance and its implications for disclosure regulation. Accounting Review 82 (5): 1299-1332.Wang, M., and K. Hussainey. 2013. Voluntary forward-looking statements driven by corporate governance and their value relevance. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 32 (3): 26-49. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
110353019資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353019 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 潘健民 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 梁思蘋 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Liang, Sz-Ping en_US dc.creator (作者) 梁思蘋 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Liang, Sz-Ping en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 13:24:42 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 13:24:42 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 13:24:42 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110353019 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146393 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 會計學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110353019 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以日本東京證券交易所上市企業為對象，探討經理人盈餘預測與成本僵固性之關聯。成本僵固性為隨著產銷量減少，成本的下降幅度卻小於產銷量增加時上升的幅度，其主係因經理人對未來之預期影響其對企業承諾資源之決策，進而造成成本僵固性之現象。在日本，大多數企業會評估且發布未來一年之盈餘預測，當經理人盈餘預測準確度高，表示經理人對於未來產業景氣是否復甦、外部需求不確定性之趨勢判斷較為準確，可能不會裁撤大量已投入成本，會保留產能以供需求回升，以避免往後發生不必要之調整成本，進而影響成本僵固性。本研究之實證結果顯示，與過去成本僵固性文獻一致，日本企業普遍本身即存有成本僵固性，實證結果亦顯示盈餘預測準確之日本企業，亦會導致企業成本呈現僵固性之現象。進一步分析後，本研究發現疫情前預測較準確之企業會導致成本僵固性；反之，疫情後兩者則不具顯著相關性。本研究亦進一步測試經理人預測是否樂觀且是否準確與成本僵固性之關聯性，實證結果發現預測較準確且悲觀之企業以及預測較不準確且樂觀之企業，會導致成本僵固性；預測較不準確且悲觀之企業反而會導致成本反僵固性；而預測較為準確且樂觀之企業則與成本僵固性無顯著關係。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study examines the association between management earnings forecasts and cost stickiness using data from firm listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan. Cost stickiness refers to the phenomenon of asymmetric decrease in sales in relation to the decrease in SG&A expenses. This is primarily due to managerial expectations about the future propensity, which influence their decision-making regarding resource commitments that leads to cost stickiness.Empirical results of this study show that Japanese firms generally exhibit cost stickiness. The results also show that firms with management accurate earnings forecasts are cost stickiness. Furthermore, there is an association between the accuracy of management earnings forecasts before COVID-19 and such association cannot be found since the pandemic of COVID-19.At last, this study further examines the association between manager forecast optimism and cost stickiness. The empirical results reveal that accurate and pessimistic forecasts, as well as inaccurate and optimistic forecasts, are associated with cost stickiness. On the other hand, inaccurate and pessimistic forecasts lead to cost anti-stickiness. However, there is no significant association between cost stickiness and accurate and optimistic forecasts. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 壹、緒論 1第一節 研究動機與目的 1第二節 研究架構 4貳、文獻探討 5第一節 成本僵固性 5第二節 經理人盈餘預測 8第三節 研究假說 11參、研究方法 12第一節 實證模型 12第二節 資料來源與樣本取樣 19肆、實證結果分析 23第一節 敘述性統計 23第二節 相關係數檢定 25第三節 經理人盈餘預測與成本僵固性之實證結果 29伍、追加測試 40陸、結論 54參考文獻 57 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2252431 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353019 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 強制揭露盈餘預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經理人盈餘預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 成本僵固性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mandatory earnings forecasts en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Management earnings forecasts en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cost stickiness en_US dc.title (題名) 經理人盈餘預測與成本僵固性之關聯 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Association Between Management Earnings Forecasts and Cost Stickiness en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anderson, M. C., R. D. Banker, and S. N. Janakiraman. 2003. Are selling, general, and administrative costs “sticky”? Journal of Accounting Research 41 (1): 47-63.Ajinkya, B., S. Bhojraj, and P. Sengupta. 2005. The association between outside directors, institutional investors and the properties of management earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 43 (3): 343-376.Amiram, D., E. Owens, and O. Rozenbaum. 2016. Do information releases increase or decrease information asymmetry? New evidence from analyst forecast announcements. Journal of Accounting and Economics 62 (1): 121-138.Bamber, L. S. and Y. S. Cheon. 1998. Discretionary management earnings forecast disclosures: Antecedents and outcomes associated with forecast venue and forecast specificity. Journal of Accounting Research 36 (2): 167-190.Banker, R. D. and L. Chen. 2006. Predicting earning using a model of cost variability and cost stickiness. Accounting Review 81 (2): 285-307.Banker, R. D., D. Byzalov, and J. M. Plehn-Dujowich. 2014. Demand uncertainty and cost behavior. Accounting Review 89 (3): 839-865.Banker, R. D., D. Byzalov, M. Ciftci, and R. Mashruwala. 2014. The moderating effect of prior sales changes on asymmetric cost behavior. Journal of Management Accounting Research 26 (2): 221-242.Banker , R. D., R. Huang, and Y. Yan. 2022. Flexible or rigid? Evidence on managerial ability and cost structure. Baruch College Zicklin School of Business Research Paper No. 2019-05-01.Botosan, C. A., 1997. Disclosure level and the cost of equity capital. Accounting Review72 (3): 323-349.Callen, J. L., J. Livnat, and S. G. Ryan. 1996. Capital expenditures: Value-relevance and fourth-quarter effects. Journal of Financial Statement Analysis 1 (3): 13-24.Chen C. X., T. Gores, and J. Nasev. 2013. Managerial overconfidence and cost stickiness. SSRN. Accessed 13 Jan 2019.Chen, C. X., H. Lu, and T. Souglannis. 2012. The agency problem, corporate governance, and the asymmetrical behavior of selling, general, and administrative costs. Contemporary Accounting Research 29 (1): 252-282.Cho, M., Y. D. Hah, and O. Kim. 2011. Optimistic bias in management forecasts by Japanese firms to avoid forecasting losses. The International Journal of Accounting 46 (1): 79-101.Cooper, R. W. and R. S. Kaplan. 1998. The Design of Cost Management Systems: Text, Cases, and Readings (2nd ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Diamond, D. W. and R. E. Verrecchia. 1991. Disclosure, liquidity, and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance 46 (4): 1325-1359.Frost, C. A. 1996. Characteristics and information value of corporate disclosures of forward-looking information in global equity markets. Working paper, Washington University.Francis, J. R., I. K. Khurana, and R. Pereira. 2005. Disclosure incentives and effects on cost of capital around the world. Accounting Review 80 (4): 1125-1162.Jensen, M. C. and W. H. Meckling. 1976. Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics 3 (4): 305-360.Kato, K., D. J. Skinner, and M. Kunimura. 2009. Management forecasts in Japan: An empirical study of forecasts that are effectively mandated. Accounting Review 84 (5): 1575-1606.Kama, I. and D. Weiss. 2013. Do earnings targets and managerial incentives affect sticky costs? Journal of Accounting Research 51 (1): 201-224.Lennox, C. S. and C. W. Park. 2006. The informativeness of earnings and management’s issuance of earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 42 (3): 439-458.McConnell, J. J. and C. J. Muscarella. 1985. Corporate capital expenditure decisions and the market value of the firm. Journal of Financial Economics 14 (3): 399-422.Noreen, E. 1991. Conditions under which activity-based cost systems provide relevant costs. Journal of Management Accounting Research 3 (4): 159-168.Noreen, E. and N. Soderstrom. 1997. The accuracy of proportional cost models: Evidence from hospital service departments. Review of Accounting Studies 2 (1): 89-114.Nagata, K. and P. Nguyen. 2017. Ownership structure and disclosure quality: Evidence from management forecasts revisions in Japan. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 36: 451-467.Opler, T., L. Pinkowitz, R. Stulz, and R. Williamson. 1999. The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings. Journal of Financial Economics 52 (1): 3-46.Ota, K. 2010. The value relevance of management forecasts and their impact on analysts’ forecasts: Empirical evidence from Japan. Abacus 46 (1): 28-59.Sengupta, P. 1998. Corporate disclosure and the cost of debt. Accounting Review 73 (4): 459-474.Smith, Jr. C. W. and R. L. Watts. 1992. The investment opportunity set and corporate financing, dividend, and compensation policies. Journal of Financial Economics 32 (3): 263-292.Subramaniam, C. and M. L. Weidenmier. 2003. Additional evidence on the sticky behavior of costs. Advances in Management Accounting 26: 275-305.Weiss, D. 2010. Cost behavior and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Accounting Review 85 (4): 1441-1471.Wang, I. Y. 2007. Private earnings guidance and its implications for disclosure regulation. Accounting Review 82 (5): 1299-1332.Wang, M., and K. Hussainey. 2013. Voluntary forward-looking statements driven by corporate governance and their value relevance. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 32 (3): 26-49. zh_TW
