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題名 以文字探勘分析致股東報告書與企業投資及股利發放決策間之關聯性
The Association between Reports to Shareholders, Corporate Investment and Dividend Payout Decisions：Using Text Mining Approach
作者 許敏柔
Hsu, Min-Jou
貢獻者 張祐慈
Chang, Yu-Tzu
許敏柔
Hsu, Min-Jou
關鍵詞 致股東報告書語調
過度投資及投資不足
股利發放
自信程度
BERT
Tone of Reports to Shareholders
Overinvestment and Underinvestment
Dividend Payout
Confidence Level
BERT
日期 2023
上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 13:25:09 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究討論致股東報告書之資訊內涵，先應用BERT模型對2016年至2020年我國上市(櫃)企業揭露之致股東報告書進行文字探勘，分析出此文本資訊之語調，再探討該語調與企業下年度投資及股利發放決策之關聯性，以了解致股東報告書能否提供投資人更多有關企業的重要訊息。過去文獻指出，管理階層呈現於文本資訊(例如MD&A)之語調得反映出其自信程度，該自信程度又對企業過度投資、投資不足及股利發放情形潛藏影響，故致股東報告書語調應能與投資及股利決策連結。
實證結果顯示，該報告書確實就前述決策之走向具備預測能力，其語調與企業下年度過度投資、投資不足程度分別呈顯著正相關及負相關；另一方面，語調與企業下年度股利發放之程度同樣存在顯著關聯，方向為負。而以上結果亦間接證實致股東報告書語調能捕捉到管理階層的自信程度。
This study focuses on the information content of Reports to Shareholders (RTS). First, I applied BERT model to analyze the tone of RTS of listed companies in Taiwan from 2016 to 2020. Then, I investigated the association between the tone of RTS, company’s investment and dividend payout decisions in the next year to explore whether RTS is informative to investors. The literature shows that the management tone presents in the textual information (e.g. MD&A) reflects a manager’s level of confidence, which has a potential impact on corporate investment level and dividend payout level. In the same vein, the tone of RTS may link to those investment and dividend decisions.
The empirical results show that the tone of RTS is significantly positively associated with the degree of overinvestment and negatively associated with the degree of underinvestment in the following year. I also find a significant, negative association between the tone and the next year’s dividend payout level. These findings indicate that RTS has predictive power over corporate decisions and the tone of RTS can be used to capture the level of confidence of management.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
110353022
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353022
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張祐慈zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chang, Yu-Tzuen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 許敏柔zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsu, Min-Jouen_US
dc.creator (作者) 許敏柔zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Hsu, Min-Jouen_US
dc.date (日期) 2023en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 13:25:09 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 13:25:09 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 13:25:09 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110353022en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146395-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 110353022zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究討論致股東報告書之資訊內涵，先應用BERT模型對2016年至2020年我國上市(櫃)企業揭露之致股東報告書進行文字探勘，分析出此文本資訊之語調，再探討該語調與企業下年度投資及股利發放決策之關聯性，以了解致股東報告書能否提供投資人更多有關企業的重要訊息。過去文獻指出，管理階層呈現於文本資訊(例如MD&A)之語調得反映出其自信程度，該自信程度又對企業過度投資、投資不足及股利發放情形潛藏影響，故致股東報告書語調應能與投資及股利決策連結。
實證結果顯示，該報告書確實就前述決策之走向具備預測能力，其語調與企業下年度過度投資、投資不足程度分別呈顯著正相關及負相關；另一方面，語調與企業下年度股利發放之程度同樣存在顯著關聯，方向為負。而以上結果亦間接證實致股東報告書語調能捕捉到管理階層的自信程度。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study focuses on the information content of Reports to Shareholders (RTS). First, I applied BERT model to analyze the tone of RTS of listed companies in Taiwan from 2016 to 2020. Then, I investigated the association between the tone of RTS, company’s investment and dividend payout decisions in the next year to explore whether RTS is informative to investors. The literature shows that the management tone presents in the textual information (e.g. MD&A) reflects a manager’s level of confidence, which has a potential impact on corporate investment level and dividend payout level. In the same vein, the tone of RTS may link to those investment and dividend decisions.
The empirical results show that the tone of RTS is significantly positively associated with the degree of overinvestment and negatively associated with the degree of underinvestment in the following year. I also find a significant, negative association between the tone and the next year’s dividend payout level. These findings indicate that RTS has predictive power over corporate decisions and the tone of RTS can be used to capture the level of confidence of management.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 壹、緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究問題 4
貳、文獻回顧 5
第一節 MD&A與致股東報告書之資訊內涵 5
第二節 管理階層語調與自信程度 7
第三節 管理階層自信程度與企業決策走向 9
一、過度投資與投資不足 9
二、股利發放 11
第四節 文字探勘方法於語調分析研究之應用 13
一、過往文字探勘方法 13
二、BERT模型 14
參、研究方法 16
第一節 假說建立 16
第二節 實證模型與變數衡量 18
一、假說H1a、H1b 18
二、假說H2 26
第三節 樣本選取 31
一、資料來源 31
二、樣本期間 31
三、樣本篩選過程 31
第四節 文本語調預測──BERT模型 34
一、致股東報告書資料分布 34
二、模型訓練過程 35
三、語調預測 39
肆、實證結果與分析 41
第一節 敘述性統計 41
第二節 相關性分析 45
第三節 實證結果分析 50
一、假說H1a、H1b之實證結果 50
二、假說H2之實證結果 54
第四節 敏感性測試 56
伍、研究結論與限制 59
第一節 研究結論 59
第二節 研究限制 60
陸、參考文獻 61
柒、附錄 致股東報告書語調標記規則 69		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 3921880 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353022en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 致股東報告書語調zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 過度投資及投資不足zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 股利發放zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自信程度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) BERTzh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tone of Reports to Shareholdersen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Overinvestment and Underinvestmenten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dividend Payouten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Confidence Levelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) BERTen_US
dc.title (題名) 以文字探勘分析致股東報告書與企業投資及股利發放決策間之關聯性zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Association between Reports to Shareholders, Corporate Investment and Dividend Payout Decisions：Using Text Mining Approachen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻
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黃娟娟，2012，公司年報文字探勘與財務預警資訊內涵，私立逢甲大學商學研究所博士論文。
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金融監督管理委員會證券期貨局，2023，歷年上市、上櫃公司家數統計表，取自：https://www.sfb.gov.tw/ch/home.jsp?id=1010&parentpath=0%2C4%2C109。

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