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題名 引入彈性工時政策是否會影響失業率振幅?
Do flexible working hours influence unemployment fluctuations?作者 楊義庠
Yang, Yi-Shiang貢獻者 賴廷緯
Ting-Wei, Lai
楊義庠
Yang, Yi-Shiang關鍵詞 動態隨機一般均衡模型
勞動摩擦
價格僵固性
每人工時僵固性
彈性工時政策
就業率
每人工時
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
Hiring Frictions
Price Rigidity
Working Hours Rigidity
Flexible Working Hours
Unemployment日期 2023 上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 13:43:47 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文建立一個封閉經濟體，其中包含家戶、中間財廠商與完全競爭之最終財廠商、貨幣當局制訂利率政策。本文藉由將總勞動投入拆分為每人工時與就業率此兩種內生變數，考慮價格僵固性與勞動摩擦的交互作用，並加入每人工時僵固性參數，探討在動態隨機一般均衡理論模型 (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, DSGE) 的架構下，並以美國的總體資料探討彈性工時是否能拯救失業率，即在失業率上升時，彈性工時政策是否會降低失業率上升的波動幅度。根據模擬結果，不論是在面對反向生產技術衝擊或是正向貨幣政策衝擊，存在價格僵固性與勞動摩擦的情況下，就業率與每人工時皆會有抵換關係，且面對衝擊時，就業率與每人工時呈反向變動，在失業率上升的情況下，彈性工時無法拯救失業率，反而會使得失業率波動幅度上升。
We establish a closed economy model composed of households, intermediate goods firms, perfect competitive final goods firms and the government. This paper analyzes whether flexible working hours amplifies unemployment fluctuations when unemployment increases on the basis of Kolasa, Rubaszek and Walerych (2021) model. Different from their model, we consider the interaction between the hiring frictions and the price rigidities. Finally, after an expansionary monetary shock and an adverse neutral technology shock happening, we find that there is a trade-off between employment and working hours. The impulse responses of employment and working hours move in the opposite direction. When we discuss the model with hiring frictions and calibrate it by using the US data, we find that an increase in flexibility of working time amplifies unemployment fluctuations when unemployment increases. The result means that flexible working hours can not save jobs during recession.參考文獻 Balleer, Almut, Britta Gehrke, Wolfgang Lechthaler and Christian Merkl (2016), “Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis.” European Economic Review, 84, 99–122.Basu, Susanto and John G. Fernald (1997), “Returns to scale in US production: Estimates and implications.” Journal of Political Economy, 105, 249–283.Burnside, Craig (1996), “Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 177–201.Cacciatore, Matteo, Giuseppe Fiori and Nora Traum (2020), “Hours and employment over the business cycle: A structural analysis.” Review of Economic Dynamics, 35, 240–262.Chemin, Matthieu and Etienne Wasmer (2009), “Using Alsace-Moselle local laws to build a difference-in-differences estimation strategy of the employment effects of the thirty-five-hour workweek regulation in France.” Journal of Labor Economics, 27, 487-524.Chetty, Raj, Adam Guren, Day Manoli, and Andrea Weber (2013), “Does indivisible labor explain the difference between micro and macro elasticities? A meta-analysis of extensive margin elasticities.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 27, 1-56.Cooper, Russell, Moritz Meyer and Immo Schott (2017), “The employment and output effects of short-time work in Germany.” National Bureau of Economic Research, w23688.Crepon, Bruno and Francis Kramarz (2002), “Employed 40 hours or not-employed 39: Lessons from the 1982 workweek reduction in France.” Journal of Political Economy, 110, 1355–1389.Diamond, Peter A. (1982), “Aggregate demand management in search equilibrium.” The Journal of Political Economy, 90, 881–894.Faccini, Renato and Eran Yashiv (2015), “Frictions in DSGE Models: Revisiting New Keynesian vs New Classical Results.” Working Paper.Faccini, Renato and Eran Yashiv (2022), “The importance of hiring frictions in business Cycles.” Quantitative Economics, 13, 1101-1143.Faia, Ester, Wolfgang Lechthaler and Christian Merkl (2013), “Fiscal stimulus and labor market policies in Europe.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37, 483–499Galí, Jordi (1999), “Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations?” American Economic Review, 89, 249-271.Galí, Jordi (2011), “Monetary policy and unemployment.” Handbook of Monetary Economics Vol. 3A (Benjamin M. Friedman and Michael Woodford, eds.), 487–546.Hall, Robert E. (2005), “Employment fluctuations with equilibrium wage stickiness.”American Economic Review, 95, 50–65.Jackman, Richard, Richard Layard and Stephen Nickell (1999), “Combating unemployment: Is flexibility enough?” Tackling Unemployment, 257-288.Kolasa, Marcin., Michał Rubaszek and Małgorzata Walerych (2021), “Do flexible working hours amplify or stabilize unemployment fluctuations?” European Economic Review, 131, Article 103605.Krause, Michael U. and Harald Uhlig (2012), “Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, 64–79.Leduc, Sylvain and Zheng Liu (2016), “Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 82, 20–35.Merz, Monika and Eran Yashiv (2007), “Labor and the market value of the firm.”American Economic Review, 97, 1419–1431.Millard, Stephen, Alexandra Varadi, and Eran Yashiv (2018), “Shock transmission and the interaction of financial and hiring frictions,” Bank of England Working Paper, 769.Mortensen, Dale T. and Christopher A. Pissarides (1994), “Job creation and job destruction in the theory of unemployment.” Review of Economic Studies, 61, 397–415.Mumtaz, Haroon and Francesco Zanetti (2015), “Factor adjustment costs: A structural Investigation.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 51, 341–355.Ohanian, Lee E. and Andrea Raffo (2012), “Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: New measurement and implications for business cycles.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, 40–56.Ravn, Morten O. and Saverio Simonelli (2007), “Labor market dynamics and the business cycle: Structural evidence of the United States.” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 109, 743–777.Rotemberg, Julio (1982), “Monopolistic price adjustment and aggregate output.” Review of Economic Studies, 49, 517–531.Smets, Frank and Rafael Wouters (2007), “Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach.” American Economic Review, 97, 586–606.Thomas, Carlos (2008), “Search and matching frictions and optimal policy.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 936–956.Trigari, Antonella (2009), “Equilibrium unemployment, job flows, and inflation dynamics.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41, 1-33.Wieland, Johannes F. and Mu-Jeung Yang (2020), “Financial dampening.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 52, 79–113.Yashiv, Eran (2006), “Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model.” European Economic Review, 50, 909–936. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
110258041資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110258041 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 賴廷緯 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Ting-Wei, Lai en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊義庠 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Yi-Shiang en_US dc.creator (作者) 楊義庠 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Yang, Yi-Shiang en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 13:43:47 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 13:43:47 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 13:43:47 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110258041 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146482 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110258041 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文建立一個封閉經濟體，其中包含家戶、中間財廠商與完全競爭之最終財廠商、貨幣當局制訂利率政策。本文藉由將總勞動投入拆分為每人工時與就業率此兩種內生變數，考慮價格僵固性與勞動摩擦的交互作用，並加入每人工時僵固性參數，探討在動態隨機一般均衡理論模型 (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, DSGE) 的架構下，並以美國的總體資料探討彈性工時是否能拯救失業率，即在失業率上升時，彈性工時政策是否會降低失業率上升的波動幅度。根據模擬結果，不論是在面對反向生產技術衝擊或是正向貨幣政策衝擊，存在價格僵固性與勞動摩擦的情況下，就業率與每人工時皆會有抵換關係，且面對衝擊時，就業率與每人工時呈反向變動，在失業率上升的情況下，彈性工時無法拯救失業率，反而會使得失業率波動幅度上升。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) We establish a closed economy model composed of households, intermediate goods firms, perfect competitive final goods firms and the government. This paper analyzes whether flexible working hours amplifies unemployment fluctuations when unemployment increases on the basis of Kolasa, Rubaszek and Walerych (2021) model. Different from their model, we consider the interaction between the hiring frictions and the price rigidities. Finally, after an expansionary monetary shock and an adverse neutral technology shock happening, we find that there is a trade-off between employment and working hours. The impulse responses of employment and working hours move in the opposite direction. When we discuss the model with hiring frictions and calibrate it by using the US data, we find that an increase in flexibility of working time amplifies unemployment fluctuations when unemployment increases. The result means that flexible working hours can not save jobs during recession. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 ⅰⅰ英文摘要 ⅰⅰⅰ目錄 ⅳ圖次 ⅴ表次 ⅶ第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與目的 1第二節 文獻回顧 4第三節 研究架構 8第二章 模型設定 9第一節 家戶部門 9第二節 廠商部門 12第一小節 最終財廠商 12第二小節 中間財廠商 14第三節 工資與工時談判 17第一小節 工資談判部分 18第二小節 工時談判部分 20第四節 貨幣政策、政府與市場結清條件 20第一小節 央行及政府 20第二小節 市場結清條件 21第三章 模型分析 22第一節 參數校準 22第二節 基準模型與模型機制 25第一小節 存在反向總合要素生產力技術衝擊 25第二小節 存在正向貨幣政策衝擊 27第三節 彈性工時效果及敏感性分析 29第一小節 彈性工時效果 30第二小節 勞動供給Frisch彈性的倒數 φ 31第三小節 利率平滑的程度 ρr 32第四小節 其他可能影響彈性工時政策之參數 33第四章 結論與建議 35參考文獻 49 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1527942 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110258041 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 勞動摩擦 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價格僵固性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 每人工時僵固性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 彈性工時政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 就業率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 每人工時 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hiring Frictions en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Price Rigidity en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Working Hours Rigidity en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Flexible Working Hours en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Unemployment en_US dc.title (題名) 引入彈性工時政策是否會影響失業率振幅? zh_TW dc.title (題名) Do flexible working hours influence unemployment fluctuations? en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Balleer, Almut, Britta Gehrke, Wolfgang Lechthaler and Christian Merkl (2016), “Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis.” European Economic Review, 84, 99–122.Basu, Susanto and John G. Fernald (1997), “Returns to scale in US production: Estimates and implications.” Journal of Political Economy, 105, 249–283.Burnside, Craig (1996), “Production function regressions, returns to scale, and externalities.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 177–201.Cacciatore, Matteo, Giuseppe Fiori and Nora Traum (2020), “Hours and employment over the business cycle: A structural analysis.” Review of Economic Dynamics, 35, 240–262.Chemin, Matthieu and Etienne Wasmer (2009), “Using Alsace-Moselle local laws to build a difference-in-differences estimation strategy of the employment effects of the thirty-five-hour workweek regulation in France.” Journal of Labor Economics, 27, 487-524.Chetty, Raj, Adam Guren, Day Manoli, and Andrea Weber (2013), “Does indivisible labor explain the difference between micro and macro elasticities? A meta-analysis of extensive margin elasticities.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 27, 1-56.Cooper, Russell, Moritz Meyer and Immo Schott (2017), “The employment and output effects of short-time work in Germany.” National Bureau of Economic Research, w23688.Crepon, Bruno and Francis Kramarz (2002), “Employed 40 hours or not-employed 39: Lessons from the 1982 workweek reduction in France.” Journal of Political Economy, 110, 1355–1389.Diamond, Peter A. (1982), “Aggregate demand management in search equilibrium.” The Journal of Political Economy, 90, 881–894.Faccini, Renato and Eran Yashiv (2015), “Frictions in DSGE Models: Revisiting New Keynesian vs New Classical Results.” Working Paper.Faccini, Renato and Eran Yashiv (2022), “The importance of hiring frictions in business Cycles.” Quantitative Economics, 13, 1101-1143.Faia, Ester, Wolfgang Lechthaler and Christian Merkl (2013), “Fiscal stimulus and labor market policies in Europe.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37, 483–499Galí, Jordi (1999), “Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations?” American Economic Review, 89, 249-271.Galí, Jordi (2011), “Monetary policy and unemployment.” Handbook of Monetary Economics Vol. 3A (Benjamin M. Friedman and Michael Woodford, eds.), 487–546.Hall, Robert E. (2005), “Employment fluctuations with equilibrium wage stickiness.”American Economic Review, 95, 50–65.Jackman, Richard, Richard Layard and Stephen Nickell (1999), “Combating unemployment: Is flexibility enough?” Tackling Unemployment, 257-288.Kolasa, Marcin., Michał Rubaszek and Małgorzata Walerych (2021), “Do flexible working hours amplify or stabilize unemployment fluctuations?” European Economic Review, 131, Article 103605.Krause, Michael U. and Harald Uhlig (2012), “Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, 64–79.Leduc, Sylvain and Zheng Liu (2016), “Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 82, 20–35.Merz, Monika and Eran Yashiv (2007), “Labor and the market value of the firm.”American Economic Review, 97, 1419–1431.Millard, Stephen, Alexandra Varadi, and Eran Yashiv (2018), “Shock transmission and the interaction of financial and hiring frictions,” Bank of England Working Paper, 769.Mortensen, Dale T. and Christopher A. Pissarides (1994), “Job creation and job destruction in the theory of unemployment.” Review of Economic Studies, 61, 397–415.Mumtaz, Haroon and Francesco Zanetti (2015), “Factor adjustment costs: A structural Investigation.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 51, 341–355.Ohanian, Lee E. and Andrea Raffo (2012), “Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: New measurement and implications for business cycles.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 59, 40–56.Ravn, Morten O. and Saverio Simonelli (2007), “Labor market dynamics and the business cycle: Structural evidence of the United States.” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 109, 743–777.Rotemberg, Julio (1982), “Monopolistic price adjustment and aggregate output.” Review of Economic Studies, 49, 517–531.Smets, Frank and Rafael Wouters (2007), “Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach.” American Economic Review, 97, 586–606.Thomas, Carlos (2008), “Search and matching frictions and optimal policy.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 936–956.Trigari, Antonella (2009), “Equilibrium unemployment, job flows, and inflation dynamics.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41, 1-33.Wieland, Johannes F. and Mu-Jeung Yang (2020), “Financial dampening.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 52, 79–113.Yashiv, Eran (2006), “Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model.” European Economic Review, 50, 909–936. zh_TW
