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題名 總體審慎政策對台灣房市的影響
The Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Taiwan Housing Market作者 羅元辰
Lo, Yuan-Chen貢獻者 朱琇妍
Chu, Shiou-Yen
羅元辰
Lo, Yuan-Chen關鍵詞 不動產授信風險權數
資本適足率
總體審慎政策
動態隨機一般均衡模型
Risk-Weight
Capital Adequacy Ratio
Macroprudential Policies
DSGE Model日期 2023 上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 13:58:48 (UTC+8) 摘要 111年2月，金管會提高不動產授信風險權數遏止房價上升。相較於升息與調整貸款成數，風險權數會直接影響到銀行資本適足率的計算，從源頭去管制資金流向，並期望藉此達到穩定房市的目的。本研究建立一個動態隨機一般均衡模型(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE)，將政府調高不動產授信風險權數、升息與調降貸款成數等調控房市的措施視為外生衝擊，觀察衝擊對台灣房地產市場的影響。本論文研究發現，三項政策都可有效抑制房價，而升息會減少儲蓄者的購屋需求，貸款成數降低會減少借款者的房屋消費量，兩者透過降低購屋能力，影響借貸市場的需求，導致房價下跌。調高風險權數著重在管制銀行的放貸意願，減少借貸市場的資金供給，控制銀行風險，以抑制房價上漲。在升息、不動產授信風險權數及貸款成數三項總體審慎政策中，三者都能抑制房價並使國內銀行資本適足率上升，從不同角度影響房價和金融體系，調節借貸市場的供需，達到國內房價下跌，銀行資本適足率上升的目的。其中又以影響銀行端的不動產授信風險權數最能抑制房價，民眾在短期內不會受到過多衝擊，對民眾的影響最小，房屋消費量上升，整體產出也增加，因此這項政策最能兼顧民眾感受與降低房價的需求。
In February 2022, The Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan (FSC Taiwan) raised the risk-weighted of real estate loans to moderate housing market. Compared with adjusting the interest rate and loan-to-value ratio (LTV ratio) which affected the demand side, raising the risk-weight would directly influence the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the bank. Therefore, the government was tackling the problem at the source by controlling the funding to cool off the housing market.This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and analyzes risk-weighted of mortgage loans shock, interest rate shock and LTV ratio shock to explore the influences of Taiwan housing market. The results indicate that all of three policies can reduce the housing price. In addition, raising the interest rate can decrease the savers’ housing transaction and reducing the LTV ratio can curb borrowers’ housing consumption. Since regulating the interest rate and LTV ratio directly influences the demand of the credit market, the housing price decreases. Enhancing the risk-weight focuses on controlling the supply of credit market to reduce housing price.All macroprudential policies can suppress housing prices and increase the capital adequacy ratio of domestic banks. They regulate the supply and demand in the credit market, aiming to achieve a decline in domestic housing prices and an increase in the capital adequacy ratio of banks. The impact of the risk-weight on the bank`s side is the most effective in suppressing housing prices. It has minimal impact on the public in the short run, and the increase in housing consumption leads to output growth. Therefore, this policy can best balance the public`s perception and the need to lower housing prices.參考文獻 王柏元 (2018)。台灣的貨幣政策與總體審慎政策(博士論文)。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所，台北市。李宗憲 (2014)。以動態隨機一般均衡模型分析臺灣最適總體審慎政策(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所，台北市。陳旭昇與陳柏瑜(2023)。台灣的利率政策與房價。經濟論文叢刊。陳南光與鄭漢亮(2012)。外部融資溢酬、台灣房屋市場與景氣波動。經濟論文，40(3)，307-341。黃俞寧(2013)。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35(1)，3-33。張天惠、朱浩榜、陳南光(2023)。房價上漲與資源誤置。經濟論文叢刊。Ahmad, R., Ariff, M., & Skully, M. J. (2008). The determinants of bank capital ratios in a developing economy. Asia-Pacific financial markets, 15(3-4), 255-272.Aktas, R., Bakin, B., & Celik, G. (2015). The Determinants of Banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratio: Some Evidence from South Eastern European Countries. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 7(1 (J)), 79-88.Angelini, P., Neri, S., & Panetta, F. (2014). The interaction between capital requirements and monetary policy. Journal of money, credit and Banking, 46(6), 1073-1112.Ayuso, J., Pérez, D., & Saurina, J. (2004). Are capital buffers pro-cyclical?: Evidence from Spanish panel data. Journal of financial intermediation, 13(2), 249-264.Babihuga, R. (2007). Macroeconomic and financial soundness indicators: An empirical investigation. IMF Working Paper, No.115, International Monetary Fund.Bateni, L., Vakilifard, H., & Asghari, F. (2014). The influential factors on capital adequacy ratio in Iranian banks. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(11), 108-116.Brewer Iii, E., Kaufman, G. G., & Wall, L. D. (2008). Bank capital ratios across countries: Why do they vary?. Journal of Financial Services Research, 34, 177-201.Brzoza-Brzezina, M., Kolasa, M., & Makarski, K. (2015). Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area. Journal of International Money and Finance, 51, 137-154.Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.Chu, S. Y. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421.Francis, W. B., & Osborne, M. (2010). On the behavior and determinants of risk‐based capital ratios: revisiting the evidence from UK banking institutions. International Review of Finance, 10(4), 485-518.Francis, W. B., & Osborne, M. (2012). Capital requirements and bank behavior in the UK: Are there lessons for international capital standards?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(3), 803-816.Funke, M., Kirkby, R., & Mihaylovski, P. (2018). House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand. Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, 152-171.Funke, M., & Paetz, M. (2013). Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong. Journal of Housing Economics, 22(1), 62-76.Gelain, P., & Bank, N. (2011, May). Macro-prudential policies in a DSGE model with financial frictions. In 7th Dynare Conference, Atlanta, USA.Gerali, A., Neri, S., Sessa, L., & Signoretti, F. M. (2010). Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area. Journal of money, Credit and Banking, 42, 107-141.Germaschewski, Y., & Wang, S. L. (2021). Distributional effects of nonresident investors on the housing market and welfare. Review of International Economics, 29(5), 1300-1326.Hadjixenophontos, A., & Christodoulou-Volos, C. (2018). Financial crisis and capital adequacy ratio: A case study for Cypriot commercial banks. Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 8(3), 87-109.Iacoviello, M., & Neri, S. (2010). Housing market spillovers: evidence from an estimated DSGE model. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(2), 125-164.Kalifa, W., & Bektaş, E. (2018). The impacts of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the capital adequacy ratio: evidence from Islamic banks. Applied Economics Letters, 25(7), 477-481.Lambertini, L., Mendicino, C., & Punzi, M. T. (2013). Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices. 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How to Do It? How to Coordinate with Monetary Policy?. Academia Economic Papers, 49(1), 1-40.Williams, H. T. (2011). Determinants of capital adequacy in the banking sub-sector of the Nigeria economy: Efficacy of Camels.(A model specification with co-integration analysis). International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 1(3), 233.Wong, J., Choi, K. F., & Fong, T. P. W. (2008). Determinants of the capital level of banks in Hong Kong. The Banking Sector In Hong Kong: Competition, Efficiency, Performance and Risk, 159-190.Yahaya, S. N., Mansor, N., & Okazaki, K. (2016). Financial performance and economic impact on capital adequacy ratio in Japan. International Journal of Business and Management, 11(4), 14-21.中央銀行(2022)。中央銀行業務報告暨 111 年度業務計畫及營業預算報告。中央銀行(2022)。本行公告新臺幣存款準備率調整事項。中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網。民112年3月19日，取自:https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-459-153020-0e06c-1.html。中央銀行(2023)。消費者貸款及建築貸款餘額(112.1)。中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網。民112年3月5日，取自:https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-526-1078-7BD41-1.html。中央銀行(2023)。銀行存放央行準備金乙戶利率。中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網。民112年4月14日，取自:https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-563-149628-31af9-1.html。內政部全球資訊網(2023)。外國人地權管理。內政部統計月報。民112年2月22日，取自:https://ws.moi.gov.tw/001/Upload/400/relfile/0/4413/79c158fd-d51f-4061-b24b-fbcdb0fb92d9/month.html#4%E5%9C%B0%E6%94%BF。內政部地政司(2021)。內政部統計顯示：法人擁有多房比例及短期交易行為均明顯高於自然人。中華民國內政部。民112年5月28日，取自:https://www.moi.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=4&s=213457。內政部地政司(2023)。平均地權條例修正案三讀 內政部：抑制炒作、健全交易。中華民國內政部。民112年2月12日，取自:https://www.moi.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=4&s=275437。內政部地政司(2023)。房價所得比。內政部不動產資訊平台。民112年2月12日，取自:https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V3/E/SCRE0201.aspx。內政部地政司(2023)。房價負擔能力統計。內政部不動產資訊平台。民112年5月27日，取自:https://pip.moi.gov.tw/v3/e/scre0105.aspx。行政院主計總處(2023)。國民所得及經濟成長統計資料庫。中華民國統計資訊網。民112年3月5日，取自:https://nstatdb.dgbas.gov.tw/dgbasAll/webMain.aspx?sys=100&funid=dgmaind。金融監督管理委員會(2019)。銀行資本適足性及資本等級管理辦法。全國法規資料庫。民112年4月18日，取自:https://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=G0380046。金融監督管理委員會(2022)。金管會將發布令釋調整不動產抵押貸款所適用之風險權數。金管會新聞稿。民112年3月5日，取自:https://www.fsc.gov.tw/ch/home.jsp?id=96&parentpath=0,2&mcustomize=news_view.jsp&dataserno=202202170004&aplistdn=ou=news,ou=multisite,ou=chinese,ou=ap_root,o=fsc,c=tw&dtable=News。勞動部(2023)。工時制度及工作彈性化措施介紹。民112年5月25日，取自:https://www.mol.gov.tw/1607/28162/28166/28218/28220/32907/。 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255018資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255018 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 朱琇妍 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chu, Shiou-Yen en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 羅元辰 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lo, Yuan-Chen en_US dc.creator (作者) 羅元辰 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lo, Yuan-Chen en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 13:58:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 13:58:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 13:58:48 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110255018 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146545 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110255018 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 111年2月，金管會提高不動產授信風險權數遏止房價上升。相較於升息與調整貸款成數，風險權數會直接影響到銀行資本適足率的計算，從源頭去管制資金流向，並期望藉此達到穩定房市的目的。本研究建立一個動態隨機一般均衡模型(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE)，將政府調高不動產授信風險權數、升息與調降貸款成數等調控房市的措施視為外生衝擊，觀察衝擊對台灣房地產市場的影響。本論文研究發現，三項政策都可有效抑制房價，而升息會減少儲蓄者的購屋需求，貸款成數降低會減少借款者的房屋消費量，兩者透過降低購屋能力，影響借貸市場的需求，導致房價下跌。調高風險權數著重在管制銀行的放貸意願，減少借貸市場的資金供給，控制銀行風險，以抑制房價上漲。在升息、不動產授信風險權數及貸款成數三項總體審慎政策中，三者都能抑制房價並使國內銀行資本適足率上升，從不同角度影響房價和金融體系，調節借貸市場的供需，達到國內房價下跌，銀行資本適足率上升的目的。其中又以影響銀行端的不動產授信風險權數最能抑制房價，民眾在短期內不會受到過多衝擊，對民眾的影響最小，房屋消費量上升，整體產出也增加，因此這項政策最能兼顧民眾感受與降低房價的需求。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In February 2022, The Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan (FSC Taiwan) raised the risk-weighted of real estate loans to moderate housing market. Compared with adjusting the interest rate and loan-to-value ratio (LTV ratio) which affected the demand side, raising the risk-weight would directly influence the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the bank. Therefore, the government was tackling the problem at the source by controlling the funding to cool off the housing market.This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and analyzes risk-weighted of mortgage loans shock, interest rate shock and LTV ratio shock to explore the influences of Taiwan housing market. The results indicate that all of three policies can reduce the housing price. In addition, raising the interest rate can decrease the savers’ housing transaction and reducing the LTV ratio can curb borrowers’ housing consumption. Since regulating the interest rate and LTV ratio directly influences the demand of the credit market, the housing price decreases. Enhancing the risk-weight focuses on controlling the supply of credit market to reduce housing price.All macroprudential policies can suppress housing prices and increase the capital adequacy ratio of domestic banks. They regulate the supply and demand in the credit market, aiming to achieve a decline in domestic housing prices and an increase in the capital adequacy ratio of banks. The impact of the risk-weight on the bank`s side is the most effective in suppressing housing prices. It has minimal impact on the public in the short run, and the increase in housing consumption leads to output growth. Therefore, this policy can best balance the public`s perception and the need to lower housing prices. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第二章 文獻回顧 4第一節 總體審慎政策相關文獻 4第二節 資本適足率相關實證文獻 7第三節 與台灣房市有關之DSGE文獻 12第三章 模型設定 14第一節 本國家計單位借款者 16第二節 本國家計單位儲蓄者 19第三節 本國最終財廠商與中間財廠商 21第四節 本國一般商業銀行 24第五節 本國政府機構 26第六節 外國家計單位借款者 27第七節 外國家計單位儲蓄者 29第八節 外國一般商業銀行 30第九節 市場均衡 32第十節 外生衝擊 33第四章 參數設定與模型求解 34第一節 參數設定 34第二節 模型求解 36第五章 衝擊反應分析 40第一節 利率衝擊 40第二節 調整不動產授信風險權數衝擊 42第三節 貸款成數衝擊 44第四節 一般交易財貨部門技術衝擊 46第五節 房屋部門技術衝擊 48第六章 結論與建議 51參考文獻 52第一節 期刊論文 52第二節 網路資料 57附錄 59 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3258845 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255018 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不動產授信風險權數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資本適足率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總體審慎政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Risk-Weight en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Capital Adequacy Ratio en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Macroprudential Policies en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) DSGE Model en_US dc.title (題名) 總體審慎政策對台灣房市的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Taiwan Housing Market en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王柏元 (2018)。台灣的貨幣政策與總體審慎政策(博士論文)。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所，台北市。李宗憲 (2014)。以動態隨機一般均衡模型分析臺灣最適總體審慎政策(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所，台北市。陳旭昇與陳柏瑜(2023)。台灣的利率政策與房價。經濟論文叢刊。陳南光與鄭漢亮(2012)。外部融資溢酬、台灣房屋市場與景氣波動。經濟論文，40(3)，307-341。黃俞寧(2013)。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35(1)，3-33。張天惠、朱浩榜、陳南光(2023)。房價上漲與資源誤置。經濟論文叢刊。Ahmad, R., Ariff, M., & Skully, M. J. (2008). The determinants of bank capital ratios in a developing economy. Asia-Pacific financial markets, 15(3-4), 255-272.Aktas, R., Bakin, B., & Celik, G. (2015). The Determinants of Banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratio: Some Evidence from South Eastern European Countries. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 7(1 (J)), 79-88.Angelini, P., Neri, S., & Panetta, F. (2014). The interaction between capital requirements and monetary policy. Journal of money, credit and Banking, 46(6), 1073-1112.Ayuso, J., Pérez, D., & Saurina, J. (2004). Are capital buffers pro-cyclical?: Evidence from Spanish panel data. Journal of financial intermediation, 13(2), 249-264.Babihuga, R. (2007). Macroeconomic and financial soundness indicators: An empirical investigation. IMF Working Paper, No.115, International Monetary Fund.Bateni, L., Vakilifard, H., & Asghari, F. (2014). The influential factors on capital adequacy ratio in Iranian banks. 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