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題名 服務業附加價值對新興經濟體經濟成長的影響
The Effects of Services Value-added on Economic Growth in Emerging Economies
作者 李瑞奇
MARCHENA, JOSE RICARDO LIZAMA DE
貢獻者 彭喜樞
李瑞奇
JOSE RICARDO LIZAMA DE MARCHENA
關鍵詞 附加價值
服務業
國內生產毛額
經濟成長
新興經濟體
Value-added
Service sector
GDP
Economic growth
Emerging economies
日期 2023
上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 14:02:33 (UTC+8)
摘要 本論文旨在探討服務業附加價值對新興經濟體經濟成長的影響。七
大新興經濟體的產出占了全球總產出相當顯著的比例，截至2017年
已達到25%，突顯了它們在全球經濟中的重要性。同時，本論文所
分析的新興經濟體服務業的附加價值，在2019年時已達到總產出的
55%。無論在就業抑或技術創新方面，服務業的發展都非常顯著。在
大規模就業和全球價值鏈內部連結的推動下，服務業附加價值對於
加速新興經濟體的經濟成長確實發揮了關鍵作用。本論文因而採取
2000至2019年之間33個新興經濟體的平衡面板資料，來估計服務業
附加價值對GDP的影響，以及附加價值成長率與GDP成長率之間的
關係。此外，本論文還將上述服務業的估計效果與工業及和農業部
門的估計效果做比較。本論文的研究結果指出，平均來說，若服務
業附加價值增加1%，則GDP將上升0.84%，超過了工業和農業部門
各自的0.61%和0.36%的影響。至於附加價值成長率與GDP成長率的
關係，本論文發現平均而言，服務業附加價值成長率每提高
1%，GDP成長率增加0.54%，超過了工業和農業部門各自的0.45%和
0.07%。
This study aims to examine the impact of value-added in the service sector on the economic growth of emerging economies. The seven largest emergent economies have accounted for a significant portion of the world’s total output, reaching 25% in 2017, highlighting their importance in the global economy. Simultaneously, the value-added by the service sector in the economies analyzed in this study, has reached 55% of their total output in 2019. The development of the service sector has been remarkable both in terms of employment and technological innovation. Driven by a massive employment and intrinsic interconnections in global value chains, the value-added in the service sector plays a pivotal role in accelerating the economic growth rate of emerging economies. Therefore, this study uses a balanced panel data from 33 emerging economies between 2000 to 2019 to estimate the impact of service sector value-added on GDP, and to estimate the relationship between value-added growth rate and GDP growth rate. Additionally, the study will compare this impact across the industrial, and agricultural sectors. The findings indicate that, on average, a 1% increase in service sector value-added increases GDP by 0.84%, surpassing the respective impacts of the industrial and agricultural sectors, which are 0.61% and 0.36%. As for the relationship between value-added growth rate and GDP growth rate is concerned, on average, a 1% increase in service sector value-added growth rate increases GDP growth rate by 0.54%, surpassing the respective impacts of the industrial and agricultural sectors, which are 0.45% and 0.07%.
參考文獻 1. David Dollar, Tatjana Kleineberg, Aart Kraay. (2013). Growth Still Is Good for the Poor. The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 6568, 2-18. doi:http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16001
2. Aart Kraay. (2006). When is Growth Pro-Poor? Evidence from a Panel of Countries. Journal of Development Economics. 80(1), 198-227. doi:https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451846676.001
3. Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska L. Ohnsorge. (2017). How Important Are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 8093, 1-11.
4. Oyebanji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, Kaushalesh Lal. (2016). Structural Transformation in Developing Countries: Cross Regional Analysis. United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Series 1, 1-9.
5. Services, value added, Metadata Glossary. The World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS
6. Industry (including construction), value added (constant 2015 US$), Metadata Glossary. The World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/NV.IND.TOTL.KD
7. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (constant 2015 US$), Metadata Glossary. The World Bank.
https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/NV.AGR.TOTL.KD
8. Gordon Scott, Katrina Munichiello, Emerging Market Economy, Definition: Examples and How They Work. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/emergingmarketeconomy.asp#:~:text=As%20an%20emerging%20market%20economy,modern%20financial%20and%20regulatory%20institutions.
9. Rupa Duttagupta, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. (2021). Miles to go, The International Monetary Fund, 7-9. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/the-future-of-emerging-markets-duttagupta-and-pazarbasioglu.htm
10. James L. Rowe, Marina Primorac, Lijun Li, Lucy Morales, Tim Callen. (2017). Finance and Development Back to Basics, The International Monetary Fund. 2017(5), 14-15.
11. GDP (constant 2015 US$), Metadata Glossay. The World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?fbclid=IwAR3VlnTX31huRXCibX_YcTsylgjPg3YHqi6O0N0hXrW8isbchSFlLEUDzZo
12. Kunal Sen, Kunal Sen. (2019). Structural Transformation around the World: Patterns and Drivers. Asian Development Bank, 6(2), 6-12. doi:https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00130
13. Stéphane Sorbe, Peter Gal, Valentine Millot. (2018). Can Productivity Still Grow in Service-Based Economies? Literature Overview and Preliminary Evidence from OECD Coutries. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economics Department, Working Papers No. 1531, 2018(79), 8-13.
14. David H. Autor, 2015. Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3-28.
15. Mina Mashayekhi, Bruno Antunes. (2017). Services and Structural Transformation for Development. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 5-28.
16. Prableen Bajpai, Julius Mansa, Suzanne Kvilhaug. (2022). China’s GDP Examined: A Service-Sector Surge. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/103114/chinas-gdp-examined-servicesector-surge.asp
17. Chong-En Bai, Xilu Chen, Zheng (Michael) Song and Xin Wang. (2021). The Rise of China’s Service Sector. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research, Working Paper No. 19/2021, 9-11. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923316
18. Banga, Rashmi and B.N Goldar. (2004). Contribution of Services to Output GrowthProductivity in Indian Manufacturing: Pre and Post Reform, Economic and Political Weekly, 42(6), 14-22.
19. Michael D Clemes, Azmat Gani. (2003). An Empirical Estimation of the Spillover Effects of Services and Manufacturing Sectors in ASEAN Countries, Asia Pacific Development Journal, 10(2), 29-39.
20. Niles Hansen. (1993). Producer Services, Productivity, and Metropolitan Income, Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, 23(3), 255-264.
21. Charles I. Jones. (2019). Paul Romer: Ideas, Nonrivalry, and Endogenous Growth, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(3), 860-867. doi:10.1111/sjoe.12370
22. Mohammad Karami, Naser Elahinia, Shekoufeh Karami. (2019). The Effect of Manufacturing Value Added on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence, From Europe, Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, 8(2), 137-141. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2019.1044
23. Oguz Demir. (2018). Does High Tech Exports Really Matter for Economic Growth? A Panel Approach for Upper Middle-Income Economies.Online Academic Journal of Information Technology, 9(30), 48-52. doi:10.5824/1309‐1581.2018.1.003.x
24. Nita Tas, Emrah Onder, Ali Hepsen. (2013). Determinants of Economic Growth in G20, Countries: A Panel Data Approach. Jour. Of Latest Trends in Fin. & Eco. Sc, 3(3), 572- 581.
25. Alberto Costantiello, Lucio Laureti and Angelo Leogrande. (2022). The Export of Medium and High-Tech Products Manufactured in Europe. LUM University Giuseppe Degennaro, Casamassima, Bari, Puglia, Italy, 1-23. doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0300.v1
26. Esra Kabaklarli, Mahmut Sami Duran, Yasemin Telli, Ucler. (2018). High-Technology Exports and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis for Selected OECD Countries. Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 6(2), 47-57. doi:10.23762/FSO_VOL6NO2_18_4
27. Clement Moyo, Leward Jeke. (2019). Manufacturing Sector and Economic Growth: A Panel Study of Selected African Countries. Journal of Business and Economics Review, 4(3), 115-126. doi:https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.3(1)
28. James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson. (2011). Introduction to econometrics (Third Edition), Pearson, 357-365.
29. Samprit Chatterjee , Jeffrey S. Simonoff. (2013). New Jersey Handbook of Regression Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 28-29.
30. Michael H. Kutner, Christopher J. Nachtsheim, John Neter, William Li. (2005). Applied linear statistical models (Fifth Edition), Mcgraw-Hill Irwin, 408-410.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
110266012
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110266012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 彭喜樞zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李瑞奇zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) JOSE RICARDO LIZAMA DE MARCHENAen_US
dc.creator (作者) 李瑞奇zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) MARCHENA, JOSE RICARDO LIZAMA DEen_US
dc.date (日期) 2023en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 14:02:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 14:02:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 14:02:33 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110266012en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146562-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 110266012zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文旨在探討服務業附加價值對新興經濟體經濟成長的影響。七
大新興經濟體的產出占了全球總產出相當顯著的比例，截至2017年
已達到25%，突顯了它們在全球經濟中的重要性。同時，本論文所
分析的新興經濟體服務業的附加價值，在2019年時已達到總產出的
55%。無論在就業抑或技術創新方面，服務業的發展都非常顯著。在
大規模就業和全球價值鏈內部連結的推動下，服務業附加價值對於
加速新興經濟體的經濟成長確實發揮了關鍵作用。本論文因而採取
2000至2019年之間33個新興經濟體的平衡面板資料，來估計服務業
附加價值對GDP的影響，以及附加價值成長率與GDP成長率之間的
關係。此外，本論文還將上述服務業的估計效果與工業及和農業部
門的估計效果做比較。本論文的研究結果指出，平均來說，若服務
業附加價值增加1%，則GDP將上升0.84%，超過了工業和農業部門
各自的0.61%和0.36%的影響。至於附加價值成長率與GDP成長率的
關係，本論文發現平均而言，服務業附加價值成長率每提高
1%，GDP成長率增加0.54%，超過了工業和農業部門各自的0.45%和
0.07%。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study aims to examine the impact of value-added in the service sector on the economic growth of emerging economies. The seven largest emergent economies have accounted for a significant portion of the world’s total output, reaching 25% in 2017, highlighting their importance in the global economy. Simultaneously, the value-added by the service sector in the economies analyzed in this study, has reached 55% of their total output in 2019. The development of the service sector has been remarkable both in terms of employment and technological innovation. Driven by a massive employment and intrinsic interconnections in global value chains, the value-added in the service sector plays a pivotal role in accelerating the economic growth rate of emerging economies. Therefore, this study uses a balanced panel data from 33 emerging economies between 2000 to 2019 to estimate the impact of service sector value-added on GDP, and to estimate the relationship between value-added growth rate and GDP growth rate. Additionally, the study will compare this impact across the industrial, and agricultural sectors. The findings indicate that, on average, a 1% increase in service sector value-added increases GDP by 0.84%, surpassing the respective impacts of the industrial and agricultural sectors, which are 0.61% and 0.36%. As for the relationship between value-added growth rate and GDP growth rate is concerned, on average, a 1% increase in service sector value-added growth rate increases GDP growth rate by 0.54%, surpassing the respective impacts of the industrial and agricultural sectors, which are 0.45% and 0.07%.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Table of Contents

1. Introduction 6
2. Literature Review 8
2.1 Emerging Economies 8
2.2 Economic Growth 8
2.3 Service Sector’s Employment and Value-added Share of GDP 9
2.4. Services Value-added Spillover Effects 13
2.5 Other Macroeconomic Variables Affecting GDP Growth 14
3. Data and Empirical Methodology 16
3.1 Panel Data 16
3.2 Emerging Economies Sample 17
3.3 Model Variables & Data Sources 18
3.4 Data Overview 19
3.5 Descriptive Statistics 22
3.6 Multicollinearity 23
3.7 Model Specifications 26
5. Results 30
6. Limitations & Future Works 37
7. Conclusions 38
8. References 40		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1400644 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110266012en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 附加價值zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 服務業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國內生產毛額zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟成長zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新興經濟體zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Value-addeden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Service sectoren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) GDPen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic growthen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Emerging economiesen_US
dc.title (題名) 服務業附加價值對新興經濟體經濟成長的影響zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Effects of Services Value-added on Economic Growth in Emerging Economiesen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. David Dollar, Tatjana Kleineberg, Aart Kraay. (2013). Growth Still Is Good for the Poor. The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 6568, 2-18. doi:http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16001
2. Aart Kraay. (2006). When is Growth Pro-Poor? Evidence from a Panel of Countries. Journal of Development Economics. 80(1), 198-227. doi:https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451846676.001
3. Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska L. Ohnsorge. (2017). How Important Are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets? The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 8093, 1-11.
4. Oyebanji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, Kaushalesh Lal. (2016). Structural Transformation in Developing Countries: Cross Regional Analysis. United Nations Human Settlements Programme, Series 1, 1-9.
5. Services, value added, Metadata Glossary. The World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS
6. Industry (including construction), value added (constant 2015 US$), Metadata Glossary. The World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/NV.IND.TOTL.KD
7. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (constant 2015 US$), Metadata Glossary. The World Bank.
https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/NV.AGR.TOTL.KD
8. Gordon Scott, Katrina Munichiello, Emerging Market Economy, Definition: Examples and How They Work. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/emergingmarketeconomy.asp#:~:text=As%20an%20emerging%20market%20economy,modern%20financial%20and%20regulatory%20institutions.
9. Rupa Duttagupta, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. (2021). Miles to go, The International Monetary Fund, 7-9. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2021/06/the-future-of-emerging-markets-duttagupta-and-pazarbasioglu.htm
10. James L. Rowe, Marina Primorac, Lijun Li, Lucy Morales, Tim Callen. (2017). Finance and Development Back to Basics, The International Monetary Fund. 2017(5), 14-15.
11. GDP (constant 2015 US$), Metadata Glossay. The World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?fbclid=IwAR3VlnTX31huRXCibX_YcTsylgjPg3YHqi6O0N0hXrW8isbchSFlLEUDzZo
12. Kunal Sen, Kunal Sen. (2019). Structural Transformation around the World: Patterns and Drivers. Asian Development Bank, 6(2), 6-12. doi:https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00130
13. Stéphane Sorbe, Peter Gal, Valentine Millot. (2018). Can Productivity Still Grow in Service-Based Economies? Literature Overview and Preliminary Evidence from OECD Coutries. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economics Department, Working Papers No. 1531, 2018(79), 8-13.
14. David H. Autor, 2015. Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3-28.
15. Mina Mashayekhi, Bruno Antunes. (2017). Services and Structural Transformation for Development. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 5-28.
16. Prableen Bajpai, Julius Mansa, Suzanne Kvilhaug. (2022). China’s GDP Examined: A Service-Sector Surge. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/103114/chinas-gdp-examined-servicesector-surge.asp
17. Chong-En Bai, Xilu Chen, Zheng (Michael) Song and Xin Wang. (2021). The Rise of China’s Service Sector. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research, Working Paper No. 19/2021, 9-11. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923316
18. Banga, Rashmi and B.N Goldar. (2004). Contribution of Services to Output GrowthProductivity in Indian Manufacturing: Pre and Post Reform, Economic and Political Weekly, 42(6), 14-22.
19. Michael D Clemes, Azmat Gani. (2003). An Empirical Estimation of the Spillover Effects of Services and Manufacturing Sectors in ASEAN Countries, Asia Pacific Development Journal, 10(2), 29-39.
20. Niles Hansen. (1993). Producer Services, Productivity, and Metropolitan Income, Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, 23(3), 255-264.
21. Charles I. Jones. (2019). Paul Romer: Ideas, Nonrivalry, and Endogenous Growth, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121(3), 860-867. doi:10.1111/sjoe.12370
22. Mohammad Karami, Naser Elahinia, Shekoufeh Karami. (2019). The Effect of Manufacturing Value Added on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence, From Europe, Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, 8(2), 137-141. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2019.1044
23. Oguz Demir. (2018). Does High Tech Exports Really Matter for Economic Growth? A Panel Approach for Upper Middle-Income Economies.Online Academic Journal of Information Technology, 9(30), 48-52. doi:10.5824/1309‐1581.2018.1.003.x
24. Nita Tas, Emrah Onder, Ali Hepsen. (2013). Determinants of Economic Growth in G20, Countries: A Panel Data Approach. Jour. Of Latest Trends in Fin. & Eco. Sc, 3(3), 572- 581.
25. Alberto Costantiello, Lucio Laureti and Angelo Leogrande. (2022). The Export of Medium and High-Tech Products Manufactured in Europe. LUM University Giuseppe Degennaro, Casamassima, Bari, Puglia, Italy, 1-23. doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0300.v1
26. Esra Kabaklarli, Mahmut Sami Duran, Yasemin Telli, Ucler. (2018). High-Technology Exports and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis for Selected OECD Countries. Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 6(2), 47-57. doi:10.23762/FSO_VOL6NO2_18_4
27. Clement Moyo, Leward Jeke. (2019). Manufacturing Sector and Economic Growth: A Panel Study of Selected African Countries. Journal of Business and Economics Review, 4(3), 115-126. doi:https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.3(1)
28. James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson. (2011). Introduction to econometrics (Third Edition), Pearson, 357-365.
29. Samprit Chatterjee , Jeffrey S. Simonoff. (2013). New Jersey Handbook of Regression Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 28-29.
30. Michael H. Kutner, Christopher J. Nachtsheim, John Neter, William Li. (2005). Applied linear statistical models (Fifth Edition), Mcgraw-Hill Irwin, 408-410.		zh_TW