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題名 臺灣地區每人每日生活用水量分析
The Analysis of Taiwan`s Per Capita Daily Water Consumption作者 陳睦捷
Chen, Mu-Chieh貢獻者 洪福聲
Hung, Fu-Sheng
陳睦捷
Chen, Mu-Chieh關鍵詞 用水量
用水效率
Panel ARDL
PMG
Water Consumption
Water Efficiency
Panel ARDL
PMG日期 2023 上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 14:18:11 (UTC+8) 摘要 全球面臨水資源匱乏問題，為有效開源節流，本研究先回顧與用水量有關之文獻，擇選相關影響因素，再以臺灣本島20個縣市、2003至2021年之縱橫資料進行影響用水量的分析研究。本研究以每人每日生活用水量為被解釋變數，戶籍登記戶量、供水普及率、每人每年可支配所得、農林漁牧從業人口比例及青壯年人口比率為解釋變數。先進行共整合檢定，確定變數間有長期關係存在；再帶入Panel ARDL模型，探討長短期關係，以及短期偏離的修正速度；接著以Hausman Test檢定出最適估計式為PMG，最後再以Granger Causality Test研究變數間之因果關係，並對研究結果進行分析。研究發現：長期之下，每人每年可支配所得與每人每日生活用水量為顯著正向關係，且有單向因果關係；戶籍登記戶量與每人每日用水量為顯著負向關係，且有單向因果關係；農林漁牧從業人口比例雖與每人每日生活用水量為顯著正向關係，但因果關係不顯著。短期之下，每人每年可支配所得落後期及青壯年人口比率落後期皆與每人每日生活用水量呈顯著負向關係，但無因果關係。若欲有效降低用水，本研究提出建議為：1. 產業轉型，引進高科技從事第一級產業，智慧用水，降低用水量；2. 增加共享，利用共享的方式達到人口叢集的效果，進而提高用水效率、減少用水；3. 增加節水宣導，藉由改變青壯年人口的用水習慣來減少用水量。
The world is facing a scarcity of water resources. To effectively promote the efficient use of water, this study first reviews the literature related to water consumption and selects relevant influencing factors. It then conducts an analysis of the factors affecting water consumption using panel data from 20 counties and cities in Taiwan from 2003 to 2021. In this study, the per capita daily water consumption is taken as the dependent variable, while the registered population, water supply coverage rate, per capita disposable income, proportion of agricultural, forestry, fishery, and livestock employment, and proportion of the young and middle-aged population are taken as the independent variables. Co-integration tests are conducted initially to determine the existence of long-term relationships among the variables. Then, the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to explore both the long- and short-term relationships, as well as the speed of adjustment in the short term. The Hausman test is used to determine the most appropriate estimator, which is found to be the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Finally, the Granger Causality Test is applied to examine the causal relationships between the variables. The study finds that in the long run, there is a significant positive relationship between per capita disposable income and per capita daily water consumption, with a unidirectional causal relationship. Registered population shows a significant negative relationship with per capita daily water consumption, also with a unidirectional causal relationship. Although the proportion of primary industry employment shows a significant positive relationship with per capita daily water consumption, the causal relationship is insignificant. In the short run, both the lagged period of per capita disposable income and the lagged period of the proportion of young and middle-aged population exhibit a significant negative relationship with per capita daily water consumption, but no causal relationship is found. To effectively reduce water usage, this study proposes the following suggestions: (1) Industrial transformation: introduce high-tech methods into primary industries for smart water usage and reduction in water consumption; (2) Increase sharing: utilize sharing mechanisms to achieve population clustering effects, thereby improving water efficiency and reducing water consumption; (3) Promote water conservation: by means of changing the water consumption behaviors of young and middle-aged population, significant reductions in water usage can be achieved.參考文獻 王康(2011)。基於 IPAT 等式的甘肅省用水影響因素分析。中國人口、資源與環境，21(6)，148-152。李梅豔(2011)。農村居民生活用水現狀及用水量影響因素分析 (Doctoral dissertation, 南京: 南京農業大學)。柳燕(2019)。城市家庭用水的邊際效應模擬與控制對策研究 (Master`s thesis, 西安建築科技大學)。金巍、章恒全、張洪波、孔偉、毛廣雄、張陳俊與嚴翔(2018)。城鎮化進程中人口結構變動對用水量的影響。資源科學，40(4)，784-796。胡峰(2006)。 城市居民生活用水需求影響因素研究 (Doctoral dissertation, 杭州: 浙江大學).俞夏蕾與麻特立 (2022)。基於家庭規模視角的中國生活用水量驅動因素研究。湖北農業科學， 61(21)， 207。秦騰與章恒全，佟金萍，馬劍鋒 (2017)。城鎮化進程中用水量增長的門檻效應與動態作用機制分析。 中國人口、資源與環境， 27(5)， 45-53。袁遠(2004)。 北京市家庭生活用水規律與類比模型研究 (Doctoral dissertation, 北京化工大學)。章淵與吳鳳平 (2016)。 用水量與經濟增長關係的實證研究。統計與決策， (10)， 132-136。曹飛(2017)。我國城鎮化與用水效率的研究——基于空間庫兹涅茨曲線擬合與研判。價格理論與實踐，(3)，163-166。張維峻(2014)。臺灣地區生活用水型態與用水量之推估研究。國立臺北大學自然資源與環境管理研究所碩士論文，新北市。陳曉光、徐晉濤與季永傑(2005)。 城市居民用水需求影響因素研究。水利經濟， 23(6), 23225.張媛媛(2012)。 影響城市居民生活用水需求的因素研究 (Master`s thesis, 杭州電子科技大學)。郭雅熅(2007)。臺灣地區生活用水量之推估研究。逢甲大學水利工程與資源保育研究所碩士論文，台中市。 取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/58c3y5廖瓊霞(2017)。各縣市自來水生活用水量影響因素之研究。朝陽科技大學財務金融系碩士論文，台中市。 取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/94xdqs鄭慧祥子與田貴良(2015)。用水總量與經濟發展關係探討。水利經濟，33(4)，10-14。Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE transactions on automatic control, 19(6), 716-723.Ali, A. M., Shafiee, M. E., & Berglund, E. Z. (2017). Agent-based modeling to simulate the dynamics of urban water supply: Climate, population growth, and water shortages. Sustainable Cities and Society, 28, 420-434.Al-Nuaimi, S. R., & Al-Ghamdi, S. G. (2022). Sustainable consumption and education for sustainability in higher education. Sustainability, 14(12), 7255.Appiah, M., Idan Frowne, D. Y., & Tetteh, D. (2020). Capital market and financial development on growth: a panel ARDL analysis. Indonesian Capital Market Review, 28-41.Arfanuzzaman, M., & Rahman, A. A. (2017). Sustainable water demand management in the face of rapid urbanization and ground water depletion for social–ecological resilience building. Global Ecology and Conservation, 10, 9-22.Brini, R. (2021). Renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption, economic growth and climate change: Evidence from a panel of selected African countries. Energy, 223, 120064.Cazcarro, I., Duarte, R., & Sánchez-Chóliz, J. (2013). Economic growth and the evolution of water consumption in Spain: A structural decomposition analysis. Ecological Economics, 96, 51-61.Cole, M. A. (2004). Economic growth and water use. Applied Economics Letters, 11(1), 1-4.Fielding, K. S., Russell, S., Spinks, A., & Mankad, A. (2012). Determinants of household water conservation: The role of demographic, infrastructure, behavior, and psychosocial variables. Water Resources Research, 48(10).Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper. 3914, NBER. 1991.Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. American Economic Review ,45 (March), 1–28.Mallick, L., Mallesh, U., & Behera, J. (2016). Does tourism affect economic growth in Indian states? Evidence from panel ARDL model. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 23(1).Oshota, S. O., & Badejo, A. A. (2015). What drives current account balance in west africa states: Evidence from panel ardl. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 8(2), 91-105.Pastor, D. J., & Fullerton Jr, T. M. (2020). Municipal Water Consumption and Urban Economic Growth in El Paso. Water, 12(10), 2656.Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(S1), 653-670.Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric theory, 20(3), 597-625.Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogenous panels. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 99(446), 621-634.Pesaran, H. M., & Smith, R. P. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panel. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 79-113.Rockaway, T. D., Coomes, P. A., Rivard, J., & Kornstein, B. (2011). Residential water use trends in North America. Journal‐American Water Works Association, 103(2), 76-89.Shaari, M. S., Abdul Karim, Z., & Zainol Abidin, N. (2020). The effects of energy consumption and national output on CO2 emissions: new evidence from OIC countries using a panel ARDL analysis. Sustainability, 12(8), 3312.Thompson, S. C., & Stoutemyer, K. (1991). Water use as a commons dilemma: The effects of education that focuses on long-term consequences and individual action. Environment and Behavior, 23(3), 314-333.Vickers, A. L. (1999). The future of water conservation: Challenges ahead. Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education, 114(1), 8.Vieira, P., Jorge, C., & Covas, D. (2017). Assessment of household water use efficiency using performance indices. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 116, 94-106.Wang , Q., Wang, X., Liu, Y., & Li, R. (2021). Urbanization and water consumption at national-and subnational-scale: The roles of structural changes in economy, population, and resources. Sustainable Cities and Society, 75, 103272.Willis, R. M., Stewart, R. A., Giurco, D. P., Talebpour, M. R., & Mousavinejad, A. (2013). End use water consumption in households: impact of socio-demographic factors and efficient devices. Journal of Cleaner Production, 60, 107-115.World Wide Fund For Nature (2008). Living Planet Report 2008. Gland, Switzerland.Yoo, S. H. (2007). Urban water consumption and regional economic growth: the case of Taejeon, Korea. Water resources management, 21(8), 1353-1361. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
行政管理碩士學程
110921040資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921040 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 洪福聲 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hung, Fu-Sheng en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳睦捷 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Mu-Chieh en_US dc.creator (作者) 陳睦捷 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chen, Mu-Chieh en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 14:18:11 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 14:18:11 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 14:18:11 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110921040 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146634 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 行政管理碩士學程 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110921040 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 全球面臨水資源匱乏問題，為有效開源節流，本研究先回顧與用水量有關之文獻，擇選相關影響因素，再以臺灣本島20個縣市、2003至2021年之縱橫資料進行影響用水量的分析研究。本研究以每人每日生活用水量為被解釋變數，戶籍登記戶量、供水普及率、每人每年可支配所得、農林漁牧從業人口比例及青壯年人口比率為解釋變數。先進行共整合檢定，確定變數間有長期關係存在；再帶入Panel ARDL模型，探討長短期關係，以及短期偏離的修正速度；接著以Hausman Test檢定出最適估計式為PMG，最後再以Granger Causality Test研究變數間之因果關係，並對研究結果進行分析。研究發現：長期之下，每人每年可支配所得與每人每日生活用水量為顯著正向關係，且有單向因果關係；戶籍登記戶量與每人每日用水量為顯著負向關係，且有單向因果關係；農林漁牧從業人口比例雖與每人每日生活用水量為顯著正向關係，但因果關係不顯著。短期之下，每人每年可支配所得落後期及青壯年人口比率落後期皆與每人每日生活用水量呈顯著負向關係，但無因果關係。若欲有效降低用水，本研究提出建議為：1. 產業轉型，引進高科技從事第一級產業，智慧用水，降低用水量；2. 增加共享，利用共享的方式達到人口叢集的效果，進而提高用水效率、減少用水；3. 增加節水宣導，藉由改變青壯年人口的用水習慣來減少用水量。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The world is facing a scarcity of water resources. To effectively promote the efficient use of water, this study first reviews the literature related to water consumption and selects relevant influencing factors. It then conducts an analysis of the factors affecting water consumption using panel data from 20 counties and cities in Taiwan from 2003 to 2021. In this study, the per capita daily water consumption is taken as the dependent variable, while the registered population, water supply coverage rate, per capita disposable income, proportion of agricultural, forestry, fishery, and livestock employment, and proportion of the young and middle-aged population are taken as the independent variables. Co-integration tests are conducted initially to determine the existence of long-term relationships among the variables. Then, the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to explore both the long- and short-term relationships, as well as the speed of adjustment in the short term. The Hausman test is used to determine the most appropriate estimator, which is found to be the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Finally, the Granger Causality Test is applied to examine the causal relationships between the variables. The study finds that in the long run, there is a significant positive relationship between per capita disposable income and per capita daily water consumption, with a unidirectional causal relationship. Registered population shows a significant negative relationship with per capita daily water consumption, also with a unidirectional causal relationship. Although the proportion of primary industry employment shows a significant positive relationship with per capita daily water consumption, the causal relationship is insignificant. In the short run, both the lagged period of per capita disposable income and the lagged period of the proportion of young and middle-aged population exhibit a significant negative relationship with per capita daily water consumption, but no causal relationship is found. To effectively reduce water usage, this study proposes the following suggestions: (1) Industrial transformation: introduce high-tech methods into primary industries for smart water usage and reduction in water consumption; (2) Increase sharing: utilize sharing mechanisms to achieve population clustering effects, thereby improving water efficiency and reducing water consumption; (3) Promote water conservation: by means of changing the water consumption behaviors of young and middle-aged population, significant reductions in water usage can be achieved. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的與方法 2第二章 文獻回顧 4第一節 經濟發展與用水量 4第二節 人口結構與用水量 6第三節 教育程度與用水量 8第四節 都市化程度與用水量 10第五節 以 Panel ARDL 為研究模型之文獻 11第六節 小結 15第三章 研究設計 16第一節 資料來源 16第二節 變數定義17一、 每人每日生活用水量 17二、 經濟發展變數 17三、 人口變數 18四、 教育程度變數 19五、 都市化變數 20第三節 敘述性統計 20第四章 實證模型與結果 22第一節 實證模型 22第二節 實證結果 25第五章 結論與建議 35參考文獻 37附錄 41 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1770153 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921040 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 用水量 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 用水效率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel ARDL zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) PMG zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Water Consumption en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Water Efficiency en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Panel ARDL en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) PMG en_US dc.title (題名) 臺灣地區每人每日生活用水量分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Analysis of Taiwan`s Per Capita Daily Water Consumption en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王康(2011)。基於 IPAT 等式的甘肅省用水影響因素分析。中國人口、資源與環境，21(6)，148-152。李梅豔(2011)。農村居民生活用水現狀及用水量影響因素分析 (Doctoral dissertation, 南京: 南京農業大學)。柳燕(2019)。城市家庭用水的邊際效應模擬與控制對策研究 (Master`s thesis, 西安建築科技大學)。金巍、章恒全、張洪波、孔偉、毛廣雄、張陳俊與嚴翔(2018)。城鎮化進程中人口結構變動對用水量的影響。資源科學，40(4)，784-796。胡峰(2006)。 城市居民生活用水需求影響因素研究 (Doctoral dissertation, 杭州: 浙江大學).俞夏蕾與麻特立 (2022)。基於家庭規模視角的中國生活用水量驅動因素研究。湖北農業科學， 61(21)， 207。秦騰與章恒全，佟金萍，馬劍鋒 (2017)。城鎮化進程中用水量增長的門檻效應與動態作用機制分析。 中國人口、資源與環境， 27(5)， 45-53。袁遠(2004)。 北京市家庭生活用水規律與類比模型研究 (Doctoral dissertation, 北京化工大學)。章淵與吳鳳平 (2016)。 用水量與經濟增長關係的實證研究。統計與決策， (10)， 132-136。曹飛(2017)。我國城鎮化與用水效率的研究——基于空間庫兹涅茨曲線擬合與研判。價格理論與實踐，(3)，163-166。張維峻(2014)。臺灣地區生活用水型態與用水量之推估研究。國立臺北大學自然資源與環境管理研究所碩士論文，新北市。陳曉光、徐晉濤與季永傑(2005)。 城市居民用水需求影響因素研究。水利經濟， 23(6), 23225.張媛媛(2012)。 影響城市居民生活用水需求的因素研究 (Master`s thesis, 杭州電子科技大學)。郭雅熅(2007)。臺灣地區生活用水量之推估研究。逢甲大學水利工程與資源保育研究所碩士論文，台中市。 取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/58c3y5廖瓊霞(2017)。各縣市自來水生活用水量影響因素之研究。朝陽科技大學財務金融系碩士論文，台中市。 取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/94xdqs鄭慧祥子與田貴良(2015)。用水總量與經濟發展關係探討。水利經濟，33(4)，10-14。Akaike, H. 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