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題名 民眾對強勢領導人的期待：跨國比較與原因探討
The People’s Wish for Strong Leader: A Comparative Study
作者 梁梓然
Liang, Ziran
貢獻者 蔡宗漢
梁梓然
Liang, Ziran
關鍵詞 強勢領導人
民主衰退
民主態度
總統化
比較研究
日期 2023
上傳時間 1-Sep-2023 15:36:39 (UTC+8)
摘要 近年來，全球範圍的「民主衰退」受到政治學界的關注與討論。在這場討論中，「民主去鞏固」概念引起了學界的廣泛爭論，「民主去鞏固」指老牌民主國家中的民眾不再將民主視為唯一的選項，民主制度面臨著去鞏固的風險。「民主去鞏固」的重要證據之一便是在老牌民主國家中越來多民眾認為有一個不受國會與選舉干擾的強勢領導人是一件好事。
本文的研究問題是：為何民主國家/地區的民眾期待強勢領導人？這個問題之所以值得研究，不僅因為近年來強人政治風潮席捲全球，還因為民主衰退相關文獻尚未對這一現象進行系統性的分析，既缺少基本的相關性分析，也缺少比較研究。
本文認為，要系統性地研究民主國家民眾期待強勢領導人的原因，應當考慮國家層次與個人層次的影響因素。在國家層次上，基於民主化、民主衰退以及威權遺緒相關理論，本文提出民主化浪潮波次、距離民主轉型的時長與轉型前的政體將影響一個國家/地區民眾期待強勢領導人的程度。其次，受憲政工程學與總統化文獻的啟發，本研究提出憲政制度、領導人尊重憲政的程度以及領導人權力大小將影響一個國家/地區民眾期待強勢領導人的程度。
在個人層次上，本文在釐清法治與民主概念的基礎上，結合總統化與民主態度相關文獻，提出民眾的法治觀念、民主支持度、民主滿意度將影響民眾是否期待強勢領導人。在心理學文獻的啟發下，筆者引入社會學的「失範」概念，提出當民眾越感知社會正處於失範狀態，越可能期待強勢領導人。除此之外，基於民主觀念與法制觀念的「時差」，本文提出，民主支持度、民主滿意度與民眾期待強勢領導人之間的關係在老牌民主國家與新興民主國家將有所不同。
本研究使用WVS/EVS第3—7波的調查資料，運用複層次混合效應線性迴歸模型對國家層次的理論假設進行檢驗。就民主進程而言，本文發現，首先，第一、二、三波民主化浪潮的國家/地區的民眾期待強勢領導人的程度依次遞增。其次，在第三波民主化浪潮國家/地區內部，距離民主轉型時間越長的國家/地區的民眾期待強勢領導人的程度越高，但轉型前是個人獨裁、軍隊獨裁或政黨獨裁不會對該國/地區民眾期待強勢領導人的程度造成顯著影響。就憲政體制而言，本文發現，半總統制國家的民眾期待強勢領導人的程度最高，總統制次之，議會制最低。本文還發現，當領導人越尊重憲政體制，該國民眾期待強勢領導人的程度越低；當領導人權力越大，該國民眾期待強勢領導人的程度越高，這意味著民眾期待強勢領導人遵循的是「強化機制」而非「補償機制」，即領導人權力越大，民眾越容易形成關於強勢領導人的迷思。
本研究使用WVS/EVS第7波資料，運用複層次混合效應勝算對數迴歸模型驗證個人層次與複層次的理論假設。本文發現，首先，民眾的民主支持度越低，越可能期待有一個強勢領導人。其次，民眾的民主滿意度與其是否期待強勢領導人之間不存在顯著的相關關係。再次，民眾越感知到社會處於失範的狀態，越可能期待強勢領導人。最後，相較於新興民主國家/地區，民主支持度對於民眾期待強勢領導人的負向影響在老牌民主國家/地區中更強烈，並且民主滿意度與期待強勢領導人的相關關係在老牌民主國家不顯著，但在新興民主國家中呈現微弱的正相關關係。
本研究對民眾期待強勢領導人之現象進行了跨時與跨國的考察，為我們了解這一現象的全貌提供了有益的資訊。本研究從國家層次與個體層次對民眾期待強勢領導人的原因進行了較為系統的討論，不僅將「民主去鞏固」的正反雙方證據拉到一個合理的框架中進行解釋，也探討了「民主去鞏固」之外的民眾期待強勢領導人的可能性，為後續的研究奠定了基礎。
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描述 博士
國立政治大學
政治學系
107252501
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107252501
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 蔡宗漢zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 梁梓然zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Liang, Ziranen_US
dc.creator (作者) 梁梓然zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Liang, Ziranen_US
dc.date (日期) 2023en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2023 15:36:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Sep-2023 15:36:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2023 15:36:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107252501en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147082-
dc.description (描述) 博士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 政治學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 107252501zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來，全球範圍的「民主衰退」受到政治學界的關注與討論。在這場討論中，「民主去鞏固」概念引起了學界的廣泛爭論，「民主去鞏固」指老牌民主國家中的民眾不再將民主視為唯一的選項，民主制度面臨著去鞏固的風險。「民主去鞏固」的重要證據之一便是在老牌民主國家中越來多民眾認為有一個不受國會與選舉干擾的強勢領導人是一件好事。
本文的研究問題是：為何民主國家/地區的民眾期待強勢領導人？這個問題之所以值得研究，不僅因為近年來強人政治風潮席捲全球，還因為民主衰退相關文獻尚未對這一現象進行系統性的分析，既缺少基本的相關性分析，也缺少比較研究。
本文認為，要系統性地研究民主國家民眾期待強勢領導人的原因，應當考慮國家層次與個人層次的影響因素。在國家層次上，基於民主化、民主衰退以及威權遺緒相關理論，本文提出民主化浪潮波次、距離民主轉型的時長與轉型前的政體將影響一個國家/地區民眾期待強勢領導人的程度。其次，受憲政工程學與總統化文獻的啟發，本研究提出憲政制度、領導人尊重憲政的程度以及領導人權力大小將影響一個國家/地區民眾期待強勢領導人的程度。
在個人層次上，本文在釐清法治與民主概念的基礎上，結合總統化與民主態度相關文獻，提出民眾的法治觀念、民主支持度、民主滿意度將影響民眾是否期待強勢領導人。在心理學文獻的啟發下，筆者引入社會學的「失範」概念，提出當民眾越感知社會正處於失範狀態，越可能期待強勢領導人。除此之外，基於民主觀念與法制觀念的「時差」，本文提出，民主支持度、民主滿意度與民眾期待強勢領導人之間的關係在老牌民主國家與新興民主國家將有所不同。
本研究使用WVS/EVS第3—7波的調查資料，運用複層次混合效應線性迴歸模型對國家層次的理論假設進行檢驗。就民主進程而言，本文發現，首先，第一、二、三波民主化浪潮的國家/地區的民眾期待強勢領導人的程度依次遞增。其次，在第三波民主化浪潮國家/地區內部，距離民主轉型時間越長的國家/地區的民眾期待強勢領導人的程度越高，但轉型前是個人獨裁、軍隊獨裁或政黨獨裁不會對該國/地區民眾期待強勢領導人的程度造成顯著影響。就憲政體制而言，本文發現，半總統制國家的民眾期待強勢領導人的程度最高，總統制次之，議會制最低。本文還發現，當領導人越尊重憲政體制，該國民眾期待強勢領導人的程度越低；當領導人權力越大，該國民眾期待強勢領導人的程度越高，這意味著民眾期待強勢領導人遵循的是「強化機制」而非「補償機制」，即領導人權力越大，民眾越容易形成關於強勢領導人的迷思。
本研究使用WVS/EVS第7波資料，運用複層次混合效應勝算對數迴歸模型驗證個人層次與複層次的理論假設。本文發現，首先，民眾的民主支持度越低，越可能期待有一個強勢領導人。其次，民眾的民主滿意度與其是否期待強勢領導人之間不存在顯著的相關關係。再次，民眾越感知到社會處於失範的狀態，越可能期待強勢領導人。最後，相較於新興民主國家/地區，民主支持度對於民眾期待強勢領導人的負向影響在老牌民主國家/地區中更強烈，並且民主滿意度與期待強勢領導人的相關關係在老牌民主國家不顯著，但在新興民主國家中呈現微弱的正相關關係。
本研究對民眾期待強勢領導人之現象進行了跨時與跨國的考察，為我們了解這一現象的全貌提供了有益的資訊。本研究從國家層次與個體層次對民眾期待強勢領導人的原因進行了較為系統的討論，不僅將「民主去鞏固」的正反雙方證據拉到一個合理的框架中進行解釋，也探討了「民主去鞏固」之外的民眾期待強勢領導人的可能性，為後續的研究奠定了基礎。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 表次 III
圖次 IV
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 2
第二節 論點與貢獻 8
第三節 章節安排 9
第二章 文獻回顧與理論建構 11
第一節 強勢領導人的定義 11
第二節 文獻回顧：民眾期待強勢領導人的原因 18
第三節 國家層次的影響因素 34
第四節 個體層次的影響因素 47
第三章 研究設計 55
第一節 研究架構與研究對象 55
第二節 資料來源 59
第三節 變數的測量 61
第四節 統計模型 68
第五節 描述性統計結果 71
第四章 民眾期待強勢領導人程度的影響因素：國家層次的討論 75
第一節 民主進程 75
第二節 憲政體制 82
第三節 總結與討論 85
第五章 民眾期待強勢領導人程度的影響因素：個人層次與複層次的討論 91
第一節 民眾期待強勢領導人的原因 91
第二節 民眾期待強勢領導人的機制：老牌與新興民主國家的比較 94
第三節 探索國家/地區之間的差異 99
第三節 總結與討論 104
第六章 結論 108
第一節 研究發現 110
第二節 局限與展望 117
附錄一 各個國家/地區在不同調查波次中民眾期待強勢領導人的比例 121
附錄二 國家層次自變數描述性統計 128
附錄三 複層次自變數描述性統計 129
參考文獻 130		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 4847976 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107252501en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 強勢領導人zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民主衰退zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民主態度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總統化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 比較研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 民眾對強勢領導人的期待：跨國比較與原因探討zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The People’s Wish for Strong Leader: A Comparative Studyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
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