學術產出-Theses
Article View/Open
Publication Export
-
題名 壽險業投資離岸風力發電可行性分析
Feasibility Analysis of Offshore Wind Farm Investment for Life Insurer作者 蔡瑞紘
Tsai, Jui-Hung貢獻者 張士傑
蔡瑞紘
Tsai, Jui-Hung關鍵詞 再生能源
離岸風力發電
現金流分析
壽險業
投資策略
Renewable energy
Offshore wind power
Cashflow analysis
Life insurance industry
Investment strategy日期 2023 上傳時間 1-Sep-2023 16:06:51 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究選定台灣第19號離岸潛力風場場址作為研究標的，透過美國太空總署 (NASA) 1980年至2016年每小時平均風速資料模擬離岸風力發電場長期發電收益。同時假設重要成本參數模擬現金流，分析台灣離岸風電場開發是否為壽險公司合適之投資標的，並對法規與政府政策提出建議。基本情境假設結果顯示，投資海龍2A風場之NPV為新台幣1.76億元，IRR為6.63%，DPP為19.51年，SLR為0.959倍。敏感度分析結果顯示，降低債務成本、提高財務槓桿、提升發電量參數或控制建造與運維成本皆能提升專案整體投資價值。其中，調整財務槓桿、發電量以及建造與運維成本對於財務評估結果有明顯改善。此外，海龍2A風場長期發電量相對穩定，適合壽險業資產配置需求。綜上所述，海龍2A風場確實是適合壽險進一步考量的投資標的。
This study selected 19th Taiwan`s offshore potential wind farm site as the research target, aiming to simulate cash flows of the offshore wind farm so as to access feasibility of investment for life insurers. NASA wind speed data from 1980 to 2016 were collected and used to estimate the long-term power generation revenue of the offshore wind farm. Subsequently, important cost parameters were assumed as well. In the base scenario, the cash flow simulation results showed an NPV of NTD 176 million, an IRR of 6.63%, a DPP of 19.51 years, and an SLR of 0.772 times.The sensitivity analysis revealed that increasing the financial leverage, increasing the power generation or deducting the installation and O&M costs significantly improved the financial assessment results. In addition, the long-term power generation of the offshore wind farm is stable and suitable for the asset allocation needs of life insurers. In conclusion, it is feasible that life insurance companies take the offshore wind farm into consideration as parts of their portfolio.參考文獻 文獻資料Bansal, R., Bati, T. S., & Kothari, D. P. (2002). On Some Of The Design Aspects Of Wind Energy Conversion Systems. Energy Conversion And Management, 43, 2175–2187.Barthelmie, R. J., Pryor, S. C., Frandsen, S. T., Hansen, K. S., Schepers, J. G., Rados, K., Schlez, W., Neubert, A., Jensen, L. E. & Neckelmann, S. (2010). Quantifying The Impact of Wind Turbine Wakes on Power Output at Offshore Wind Farms, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 27, 1302–1317.Beiter, Philipp, Musial, Walter, Smith, Aaron, Kilcher, Levi, Damiani, Rick, Maness, Michael, Sirnivas, Senu, Stehly, Tyler, Gevorgian, Vahan, Mooney, Meghan, & Scott, George. A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015–2030. https://doi.org/10.2172/1324526Gaertner, Evan, Rinker, Jennifer, Sethuraman, Latha, Zahle, Frederik, Anderson, Benjamin, Barter, Garrett E, Abbas, Nikhar J, Meng, Fanzhong, Bortolotti, Pietro, Skrzypinski, Witold, Scott, George N, Feil, Roland, Bredmose, Henrik, Dykes, Katherine, Shields, Matthew, Allen, Christopher, & Viselli, Anthony. IEA Wind TCP Task 37: Definition of the IEA 15-Megawatt Offshore Reference Wind Turbine. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1603478Garcia-Bernabeu, A., Mayor-Vitoria, F. & Mas-Verdu, F. (2015). Project Finance Recent Applications And Future Trends: The State Of The Art, International Journal Of Business And Economics, 14(2), 159–178.Garrett Barter, Pietro Bortolotti, Evan Gaertner, Nikhar J. Abbas, Dzalkind, Jenni Rinker, Frederik Zahle, T-Wainwright, E. Branlard, Lu Wang, Luis A. Padrón, Matt Hall, & Lssraman. (2023). Ieawindtask37/IEA-15-240-RWT: Improvements In Openfast Floating Model (V1.1.5). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7990453Inderst, G (2010), "Infrastructure as an Asset Class", EIB Papers, 15(1), 70-104.IRENA (2022), Renewable Power Generation Costs In 2021, 100-119. https://www.irena.org/Publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-In-2021Guillet, J (2022). Offshore Wind Debt 15 Years On, PFI Yearbook 2022, 36-38. https://www.pfie.com/story/3151364/offshore-wind-debt-15-years-on-cqwp8mbjh8Liao, S. C., Chang, S. C., & Cheng, T. C. (2021). Managing the Volatility Risk of Renewable Energy: Index Insurance for Offshore Wind Farms in Taiwan. Sustainability, 13(16), 8985.Lindberg, O., Lingfors, D., & Arnqvist, J. (2022). Analyzing the mechanisms behind temporal correlation between power sources using frequency separated time scales: A Swedish case study on PV and wind, Energy, 259, 124817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124817Ucar, A., & Balo, F. (2010). Assessment of Wind Power Potential for Turbine Installation in Coastal Areas of Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14 (7), 1901-1912.Vieira, M., Snyder, B. Henriques, E., & Reis, L. (2019). European Offshore Wind Capital Cost Trends Up To 2020. Energy Policy, 129(C), 1364-1371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.036Vimmerstedt, Laura, Stehly, Tyler, Akar, Sertac, Sekar, Ashok, Mirletz, Brian, Stright, Dana, Augustine, Chad, Beiter, Philipp, Bhaskar, Parangat, Blair, Nate, Cohen, Stuart, Cole, Wesley, Duffy, Patrick, Feldman, David, Gagnon, Pieter, Kurup, Parthiv, Murphy, Caitlin, Ramasamy, Vignesh, Robins, Jody, Zuboy, Jarett, Oladosu, Debo, & Hoffmann, Jeffrey. 2022 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies. United States. https://dx.doi.org/10.25984/1871952Widén, J. (2011). Correlations Between Large-Scale Solar And Wind Power In A Future Scenario For Sweden. Sustainable Energy, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 2(2). 177-184. 10.1109/TSTE.2010.2101620.Wu, Y., & Porté-Agel, F. (2012). Simulation Of Turbulent Flow Inside And Above Wind Farms: Model Validation And Layout Effects. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 146, 181-205.Yates, C., & Leybourne, M. (2019). Financing Offshore Wind in Taiwan. Journal of National Development Studies, 18(2), 125-152. 10.6164/JNDS.201906_18(2).0003網路資料Aime Harrison, Paul Lowrie, Nicholas Sykes (2021, January 25) GEOHAZARDS IN ASIAN OFFSHORE WIND INSURANCE. Capital Consulting International. https://cci-int.com/Geohazards-In-Asian-Offshore-Wind-Insurance/Damodaran Online, Aswath Damodaran. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/TAIWAN RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET (2021, May 3), International Trade Administration, https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/taiwan-renewable-energy-marketNorthland Power Signs Power Purchase Agreement For Hai Long 2A Offshore Wind Project. (2019, February 26). Globenewswire. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/2/26/1742557/0/en/northland-power-signs-power-purchase-agreement-for-hai-long-2a-offshore-wind-project.htmlWind-Turbine-Models.Com. https://en.wind-turbine-models.com/turbines/2266-siemens-gamesa-sg-14-222-ddZdorovenin, V. (2020, April 6). Capital–Efficient Alternatives For Asian Insurer. J.P. Morgan. https://am.jpmorgan.com/tw/en/asset-management/institutional/investment-strategies/insurance/insights/capital-efficient-alternatives-for-asian-insurers/什麼是躉(ㄉㄨㄣˇ)購費率？。能源教育資源總中心。https://learnenergy.tw/index.php?inter=knowledge&caid=5&id=432朱漢崙，李青縈，陳碧芬(2022年7月22日)。海龍風電聯貸規模衝1,500億元。工商時報。Https://Ctee.Com.Tw/News/Finance/683182.Html。保險局(2016年10月27日)。金管會持續鼓勵保險業資金投入國內公共建設。https://www.fsc.gov.tw/ch/home.jsp?id=96&parentpath=0,2&mcustomize=news_view.jsp&dataserno=201610270006&aplistdn=ou=news,ou=multisite,ou=chinese,ou=ap_root,o=fsc,c=tw&dtable=News財政部國有財產署(2020年6月30日)。重新核示海域土地提供離岸式風力發電系統使用之處理方式。https://esvc.fnp.gov.tw/decreeDetail/construeMain?treId=2396梁任瑋(2021年12月8日)勇闖離岸風電場併購案 成金鑫獎贏家 國泰永續私募：每座風場發展史都得摸透。今周刊。https://esg.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/180692/post/202112080078/%E5%8B%87%E9%97%96%E9%9B%A2%E5%B2%B8%E9%A2%A8%E9%9B%BB%E5%A0%B4%E4%BD%B5%E8%B3%BC%E6%A1%88%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%90%E9%87%91%E9%91%AB%E7%8D%8E%E8%B4%8F%E5%AE%B6%EF%BC%81%E5%9C%8B%E6%B3%B0%E6%B0%B8%E7%BA%8C%E7%A7%81%E5%8B%9F%EF%BC%9A%E6%AF%8F%E5%BA%A7%E9%A2%A8%E5%A0%B4%E7%99%BC%E5%B1%95%E5%8F%B2%E9%83%BD%E5%BE%97%E6%91%B8%E9%80%8F。陳映璇 (2020年12月29日)。沃旭大彰化風場引進新投資人，加拿大退休金、國泰私募基金砸750億入股。數位時代。https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/60750/orsted-cdpq--cathay-capital--changhua-offshore-wind-farm。馮建棨(2023年5月8日)。海龍Tim Kittelhake用歐洲經驗助風場順轉。工商時報。https://ctee.com.tw/people/interview/856431.html。葉芳瑜(2017年11月17日)。風力發電產業融資實務議題探討。Research Portal 科技政策觀點。10.6916/STPIRP.2017-11-17.0001 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
110358015資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110358015 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 張士傑 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蔡瑞紘 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tsai, Jui-Hung en_US dc.creator (作者) 蔡瑞紘 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Tsai, Jui-Hung en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2023 16:06:51 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Sep-2023 16:06:51 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2023 16:06:51 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110358015 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147208 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110358015 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究選定台灣第19號離岸潛力風場場址作為研究標的，透過美國太空總署 (NASA) 1980年至2016年每小時平均風速資料模擬離岸風力發電場長期發電收益。同時假設重要成本參數模擬現金流，分析台灣離岸風電場開發是否為壽險公司合適之投資標的，並對法規與政府政策提出建議。基本情境假設結果顯示，投資海龍2A風場之NPV為新台幣1.76億元，IRR為6.63%，DPP為19.51年，SLR為0.959倍。敏感度分析結果顯示，降低債務成本、提高財務槓桿、提升發電量參數或控制建造與運維成本皆能提升專案整體投資價值。其中，調整財務槓桿、發電量以及建造與運維成本對於財務評估結果有明顯改善。此外，海龍2A風場長期發電量相對穩定，適合壽險業資產配置需求。綜上所述，海龍2A風場確實是適合壽險進一步考量的投資標的。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study selected 19th Taiwan`s offshore potential wind farm site as the research target, aiming to simulate cash flows of the offshore wind farm so as to access feasibility of investment for life insurers. NASA wind speed data from 1980 to 2016 were collected and used to estimate the long-term power generation revenue of the offshore wind farm. Subsequently, important cost parameters were assumed as well. In the base scenario, the cash flow simulation results showed an NPV of NTD 176 million, an IRR of 6.63%, a DPP of 19.51 years, and an SLR of 0.772 times.The sensitivity analysis revealed that increasing the financial leverage, increasing the power generation or deducting the installation and O&M costs significantly improved the financial assessment results. In addition, the long-term power generation of the offshore wind farm is stable and suitable for the asset allocation needs of life insurers. In conclusion, it is feasible that life insurance companies take the offshore wind farm into consideration as parts of their portfolio. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章緒論 1第一節研究動機 1第二節文獻與研究方法 2第二章離岸風場風力發電分析 4第一節風力發電場 4第二節離岸風力發電機 4第三節風力資料分析 7第四節發電量分析 11第三章離岸風場財務可行性分析 14第一節財務參數分析 14第二節風力發電收入 19第三節資本支出與運營成本 20第四節現金流量與投資效益分析 24第五節敏感度分析 27第四章壽險業投資與法規 34第一節壽險業投資離岸風力發電方式 34第二節保險資金投入公共建設法規 36第五章結論與建議 41參考資料 43附錄 49 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1190889 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110358015 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 再生能源 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 離岸風力發電 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 現金流分析 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 壽險業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資策略 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Renewable energy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Offshore wind power en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cashflow analysis en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Life insurance industry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Investment strategy en_US dc.title (題名) 壽險業投資離岸風力發電可行性分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Feasibility Analysis of Offshore Wind Farm Investment for Life Insurer en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 文獻資料Bansal, R., Bati, T. S., & Kothari, D. P. (2002). On Some Of The Design Aspects Of Wind Energy Conversion Systems. Energy Conversion And Management, 43, 2175–2187.Barthelmie, R. J., Pryor, S. C., Frandsen, S. T., Hansen, K. S., Schepers, J. G., Rados, K., Schlez, W., Neubert, A., Jensen, L. E. & Neckelmann, S. (2010). Quantifying The Impact of Wind Turbine Wakes on Power Output at Offshore Wind Farms, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 27, 1302–1317.Beiter, Philipp, Musial, Walter, Smith, Aaron, Kilcher, Levi, Damiani, Rick, Maness, Michael, Sirnivas, Senu, Stehly, Tyler, Gevorgian, Vahan, Mooney, Meghan, & Scott, George. A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015–2030. https://doi.org/10.2172/1324526Gaertner, Evan, Rinker, Jennifer, Sethuraman, Latha, Zahle, Frederik, Anderson, Benjamin, Barter, Garrett E, Abbas, Nikhar J, Meng, Fanzhong, Bortolotti, Pietro, Skrzypinski, Witold, Scott, George N, Feil, Roland, Bredmose, Henrik, Dykes, Katherine, Shields, Matthew, Allen, Christopher, & Viselli, Anthony. IEA Wind TCP Task 37: Definition of the IEA 15-Megawatt Offshore Reference Wind Turbine. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1603478Garcia-Bernabeu, A., Mayor-Vitoria, F. & Mas-Verdu, F. (2015). Project Finance Recent Applications And Future Trends: The State Of The Art, International Journal Of Business And Economics, 14(2), 159–178.Garrett Barter, Pietro Bortolotti, Evan Gaertner, Nikhar J. Abbas, Dzalkind, Jenni Rinker, Frederik Zahle, T-Wainwright, E. Branlard, Lu Wang, Luis A. Padrón, Matt Hall, & Lssraman. (2023). Ieawindtask37/IEA-15-240-RWT: Improvements In Openfast Floating Model (V1.1.5). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7990453Inderst, G (2010), "Infrastructure as an Asset Class", EIB Papers, 15(1), 70-104.IRENA (2022), Renewable Power Generation Costs In 2021, 100-119. https://www.irena.org/Publications/2022/Jul/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-In-2021Guillet, J (2022). Offshore Wind Debt 15 Years On, PFI Yearbook 2022, 36-38. https://www.pfie.com/story/3151364/offshore-wind-debt-15-years-on-cqwp8mbjh8Liao, S. C., Chang, S. C., & Cheng, T. C. (2021). Managing the Volatility Risk of Renewable Energy: Index Insurance for Offshore Wind Farms in Taiwan. Sustainability, 13(16), 8985.Lindberg, O., Lingfors, D., & Arnqvist, J. (2022). Analyzing the mechanisms behind temporal correlation between power sources using frequency separated time scales: A Swedish case study on PV and wind, Energy, 259, 124817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124817Ucar, A., & Balo, F. (2010). Assessment of Wind Power Potential for Turbine Installation in Coastal Areas of Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14 (7), 1901-1912.Vieira, M., Snyder, B. Henriques, E., & Reis, L. (2019). European Offshore Wind Capital Cost Trends Up To 2020. Energy Policy, 129(C), 1364-1371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.036Vimmerstedt, Laura, Stehly, Tyler, Akar, Sertac, Sekar, Ashok, Mirletz, Brian, Stright, Dana, Augustine, Chad, Beiter, Philipp, Bhaskar, Parangat, Blair, Nate, Cohen, Stuart, Cole, Wesley, Duffy, Patrick, Feldman, David, Gagnon, Pieter, Kurup, Parthiv, Murphy, Caitlin, Ramasamy, Vignesh, Robins, Jody, Zuboy, Jarett, Oladosu, Debo, & Hoffmann, Jeffrey. 2022 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies. United States. https://dx.doi.org/10.25984/1871952Widén, J. (2011). Correlations Between Large-Scale Solar And Wind Power In A Future Scenario For Sweden. Sustainable Energy, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 2(2). 177-184. 10.1109/TSTE.2010.2101620.Wu, Y., & Porté-Agel, F. (2012). Simulation Of Turbulent Flow Inside And Above Wind Farms: Model Validation And Layout Effects. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 146, 181-205.Yates, C., & Leybourne, M. (2019). Financing Offshore Wind in Taiwan. Journal of National Development Studies, 18(2), 125-152. 10.6164/JNDS.201906_18(2).0003網路資料Aime Harrison, Paul Lowrie, Nicholas Sykes (2021, January 25) GEOHAZARDS IN ASIAN OFFSHORE WIND INSURANCE. Capital Consulting International. https://cci-int.com/Geohazards-In-Asian-Offshore-Wind-Insurance/Damodaran Online, Aswath Damodaran. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/TAIWAN RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET (2021, May 3), International Trade Administration, https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/taiwan-renewable-energy-marketNorthland Power Signs Power Purchase Agreement For Hai Long 2A Offshore Wind Project. (2019, February 26). Globenewswire. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/2/26/1742557/0/en/northland-power-signs-power-purchase-agreement-for-hai-long-2a-offshore-wind-project.htmlWind-Turbine-Models.Com. https://en.wind-turbine-models.com/turbines/2266-siemens-gamesa-sg-14-222-ddZdorovenin, V. (2020, April 6). Capital–Efficient Alternatives For Asian Insurer. J.P. Morgan. https://am.jpmorgan.com/tw/en/asset-management/institutional/investment-strategies/insurance/insights/capital-efficient-alternatives-for-asian-insurers/什麼是躉(ㄉㄨㄣˇ)購費率？。能源教育資源總中心。https://learnenergy.tw/index.php?inter=knowledge&caid=5&id=432朱漢崙，李青縈，陳碧芬(2022年7月22日)。海龍風電聯貸規模衝1,500億元。工商時報。Https://Ctee.Com.Tw/News/Finance/683182.Html。保險局(2016年10月27日)。金管會持續鼓勵保險業資金投入國內公共建設。https://www.fsc.gov.tw/ch/home.jsp?id=96&parentpath=0,2&mcustomize=news_view.jsp&dataserno=201610270006&aplistdn=ou=news,ou=multisite,ou=chinese,ou=ap_root,o=fsc,c=tw&dtable=News財政部國有財產署(2020年6月30日)。重新核示海域土地提供離岸式風力發電系統使用之處理方式。https://esvc.fnp.gov.tw/decreeDetail/construeMain?treId=2396梁任瑋(2021年12月8日)勇闖離岸風電場併購案 成金鑫獎贏家 國泰永續私募：每座風場發展史都得摸透。今周刊。https://esg.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/180692/post/202112080078/%E5%8B%87%E9%97%96%E9%9B%A2%E5%B2%B8%E9%A2%A8%E9%9B%BB%E5%A0%B4%E4%BD%B5%E8%B3%BC%E6%A1%88%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%90%E9%87%91%E9%91%AB%E7%8D%8E%E8%B4%8F%E5%AE%B6%EF%BC%81%E5%9C%8B%E6%B3%B0%E6%B0%B8%E7%BA%8C%E7%A7%81%E5%8B%9F%EF%BC%9A%E6%AF%8F%E5%BA%A7%E9%A2%A8%E5%A0%B4%E7%99%BC%E5%B1%95%E5%8F%B2%E9%83%BD%E5%BE%97%E6%91%B8%E9%80%8F。陳映璇 (2020年12月29日)。沃旭大彰化風場引進新投資人，加拿大退休金、國泰私募基金砸750億入股。數位時代。https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/60750/orsted-cdpq--cathay-capital--changhua-offshore-wind-farm。馮建棨(2023年5月8日)。海龍Tim Kittelhake用歐洲經驗助風場順轉。工商時報。https://ctee.com.tw/people/interview/856431.html。葉芳瑜(2017年11月17日)。風力發電產業融資實務議題探討。Research Portal 科技政策觀點。10.6916/STPIRP.2017-11-17.0001 zh_TW
