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題名 臺灣消費稅改革之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析
A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis of Taiwan Consumption Tax Reform作者 蔡婷羽
Tsai, Ting-Yu貢獻者 朱琇妍
Chu, Shiou-Yen
蔡婷羽
Tsai, Ting-Yu關鍵詞 耐久財及非耐久財消費稅
所得稅
動態隨機一般均衡模型
所得分配
福利
Consumption tax on durable and non-durable goods
Income tax
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model
Income distribution
Welfare日期 2023 上傳時間 1-Sep-2023 16:07:47 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文以動態隨機一般均衡模型(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE)，分析調升消費稅稅率，及調降所得稅稅率時，對臺灣總體經濟、所得分配及社會福利之影響。本文針對耐久財與非耐久財，建立不同之消費稅稅率，所得稅則區分為勞動所得稅與利潤稅。本文模擬四種財政政策調整工具對兩種家計單位之消費、勞動、所得、消費稅負擔率及福利的影響，模擬結果發現，總體經濟衝擊反應方面， 調升非耐久財及耐久財消費稅稅率將減少產出，提高物價上漲率;調降勞動所得稅 及利潤稅稅率將增加產出，降低物價上漲率;政府支出增加則產生乘數效果，提高產出，降低物價上漲率。所得分配方面，調升耐久財消費稅稅率，比起調升非耐久 財消費稅稅率，更能縮小所得差距，亦更能降低低所得者之消費稅負擔率。福利方面，在暫時性衝擊下，調升耐久財消費稅稅率，並調降勞動所得稅稅率之財政政策調整工具，為本文四種財政政策工具中最佳之政策工具。此政策工具在調升消費稅稅率的同時，以僅調升耐久財消費稅稅率，並搭配調降勞動所得稅稅率的方式，減緩了消費稅調升對低所得者所造成的負擔。另外，勞動所得稅稅率調降，使勞動供給增加，帶動經濟成長。
This paper analyzes the impact of increasing the consumption tax rate and decreasing the income tax rate on Taiwan`s macroeconomic, income distribution, and social welfare using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. This study establishes the different consumption tax rates for durable and non-durable goods, while income taxes are divided into labor income tax and profit tax. The research simulates four fiscal policy adjustment instruments to assess their effects on consumption, labor, income, consumption tax burden, and welfare for two types of households. The simulation results reveal that in terms of macroeconomic impacts, raising the consumption tax rates for both durable and non-durable goods will reduce output and increase inflation rates. On the other hand, reducing labor income tax and profit tax rates will boost output and lower inflation rates. Increased government expenditure will produce a multiplier effect, raising output and lowering inflation rates. Regarding income distribution, raising the consumption tax rate for durable goods, compared to non-durable goods, can narrow income gaps and reduce the consumption tax burden on low-income households. In terms of welfare, under temporary shocks, the best fiscal policy instrument among the four is the combination of raising the consumption tax rate for durable goods and reducing the labor income tax rate. Through increasing the consumption tax rate specifically for durable goods while simultaneously decreasing the labor income tax rate, this policy instrument alleviates the burden imposed on low-income households caused by the consumption tax increase. Additionally, the decrease in labor income tax rate leads to increased labor supply, driving economic growth.參考文獻 中文部分：[1] 中央研究院(2014)。賦稅改革政策建議書。中央研究院報告。[2]中央銀行(2023)。「五大銀行平均存款利率」與「五大銀行平均基準利率」。民 112 年 2 月 16 日，取自:https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-371-1040-5C7A0-1.html[3] 內政部戶政司(2023)。人口統計資料。民 112 年 5 月 22 日，取自:https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/portal/346[4] 行政院主計總處(2023)。112 年 1 月人力資源調查統計。民 112 年 5 月 22 日，取自:https://www.stat.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=4000&s=230938[5] 行政院主計總處(2022)。110 年家庭收支調查報告。行政院主計總處。[6] 財政部財政資訊中心(2023)。109 年度綜合所得稅申報核定統計專冊。民 112 年 5 月23 日，取自:https://www.fia.gov.tw/singlehtml/43?cntId=17dcd598b9fd41939cf98c2e4ae162fd[7] 國家發展委員會(2023)。人口推估查詢系統—總生育率。民 112 年 5 月 31 日，取自:https://pop-proj.ndc.gov.tw/dataSearch2.aspx?r=2&uid=2104&pid=59[8] 張富翔(2018)。探討台灣耐久財及非耐久財訂價模式。國立中央大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。[9] 張漪軒(2016)。透過消費稅的稅制改革:以台灣為例。國立中山大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。[10] 傅敬堯、林雪瑜、楊淑珺(2018)。稅制調整與地下經濟—臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策，49(1)，1-45。[11] 勞動部(2023)。112 年 1 月底勞工保險投保人數統計。民 112 年 5 月 22 日，取自:https://statfy.mol.gov.tw/index08.aspx[12] 黃俞寧(2013)。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35(1)，3-33。[13] 管中閔、印永翔、姚睿、黃朝熙、徐之強、陳宜廷(2010)。台灣動態隨機一般均衡模型 (DSGE) 建立與政策評估。行政院經濟建設委員會。[14] 蘇顯揚、呂慧敏(2014)。日本調漲消費稅率的影響。國際經濟情勢雙週報，1801， 5-10。英文部分：[1] Altig, D., Auerbach, A. J., Kotlikoff, L. J., Smetters, K. A., &Walliser, J. (2001). Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States. American Economic Review, 91(3), 574-595.[2] Arnold, J. M. (2008). Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries (No. 643). OECD Economics Department Working Papers,未出版[3] Auerbach, A. J., Kotlikoff, L. J., & Skinner, J. S. (1981). The Efficiency Gains from Dynamic Tax Reform (No. w819). NBER Working Paper Series,未出版[4] Azar, J. A., Berry, S. T., & Marinescu, I. (2022). Estimating Labor Market Power (No. w30365). NBER Working Paper Series,未出版[5] Bhattarai, K., & Trzeciakiewicz, D. (2017). Macroeconomic Impacts of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the UK: A DSGE Analysis. Economic Modelling, 61, 321-338.[6] Bi, H., Shen, W., & Yang, S. C. S. (2016). Fiscal Limits in Developing Countries: A DSGE Approach. Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 119-130.[7] Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered Prices in a Utility-maximizing Framework. Journal of monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.[8] Cantelmo, A., & Melina, G. (2018). Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48.[9] Cantore, C., & Freund, L. B. (2021). Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: Fiscal Policy and Income (Re) Distribution. Journal of Monetary Economics, 119, 58-74.[10] Chen, B. L., & Liao, S. Y. (2014). Capital, Credit Constraints and the Comovement Between Consumer Durables and Nondurables. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 39, 127-139.[11] Chu, S. Y. (2018). Macroeconomic Policies and Housing Market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421.[12] Fauvel, Y., & Samson, L. (1991). Intertemporal Substitution and Durable Goods: An Empirical Analysis. Canadian Journal of Economics, 192-205.[13] Furceri, D., & Mourougane, A. (2010). The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: A DSGE Analysis (No. 770). OECD Economics Department Working Papers,未出版[14] Hayashida, M., Namba, R., Ono, SH., & Yasuoka, M. (2022). Consumption Tax and Productive Government Expenditure in DSGE Model.The Japanese Political Economy, 48(1), 67-86.[15] Heer, B., & Trede, M. (2003). Efficiency and Distribution Effects of a Revenue-neutral Income Tax Reform. Journal of Macroeconomics, 25(1), 87-107.[16] Jokisch, S., & Kotlikoff, L. J. (2007). Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax. National Tax Journal, 60(2), 225-252.[17] Kang, K. H., Keen, M., Pradhan, M., & de Mooij, R. A. (2011). Raising the Consumption Tax in Japan: Why, When, How?. IMF Staff Discussion Notes, 2011(013).[18] Koehne, S. (2018). On the Taxation of Durable Goods. International EconomicReview, 59(2), 825-857.[19] Lehmus, M. (2011). Labor or Consumption Taxes? An Application with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Heterogeneous Agents. Economic Modelling, 28(4), 1984-1992.[20] Lin, Y. C. (2021). Business Cycle Fluctuations in Taiwan—A Bayesian DSGE Analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 70, 103349.[21] Liu, C. Y., & Wu, C. H. (2015). Income-cum-consumption Tax Schedules as Stabilization Policy. Taiwan Economic Review, 43(2), 243-268.[22] Lu, C. H., Ueng, K. G., & Chang, J. J. (2022). Consumption Indivisibility and the Optimal Tax Mix. Economic Modelling, 112, 105845.[23] Monacelli, T. (2009). New Keynesian Models, Durable Goods, and Collateral Constraints. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(2), 242-254.[24] Nandi, A. (2020). Indian Fiscal Policy: A DSGE Primer. The Journal of Developing Areas, 54(2).[25] Pakoš, M. (2011). Estimating Intertemporal and Intratemporal Substitutions When Both Income and Substitution Effects are Present: The Role of Durable Goods. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 29(3), 439-454.[26] Tellis, G. J. (1988). The Price Elasticity of Selective Demand: A Meta-analysis of Econometric Models of Sales. Journal of marketing research, 25(4), 331-341.[27] Teo, W. L. (2009). Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Taiwanese Economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231.[28] Wang, P. Y. (2021). Does Taiwan Need a Macro-prudential Policy? How to Do It? How to Coordinate with Monetary Policy?. Academia Economic Papers, 49(1), 1-40.[29] Yang, S. C. S. (2007). Do Capital Income Tax Cuts Trickle Down?. National Tax Journal, 60(3), 551-567.[30] Zubairy, S. (2014). On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model. International Economic Review, 55(1), 169-195. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255002資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255002 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 朱琇妍 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chu, Shiou-Yen en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 蔡婷羽 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Tsai, Ting-Yu en_US dc.creator (作者) 蔡婷羽 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Tsai, Ting-Yu en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2023 16:07:47 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Sep-2023 16:07:47 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2023 16:07:47 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110255002 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147213 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110255002 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文以動態隨機一般均衡模型(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE)，分析調升消費稅稅率，及調降所得稅稅率時，對臺灣總體經濟、所得分配及社會福利之影響。本文針對耐久財與非耐久財，建立不同之消費稅稅率，所得稅則區分為勞動所得稅與利潤稅。本文模擬四種財政政策調整工具對兩種家計單位之消費、勞動、所得、消費稅負擔率及福利的影響，模擬結果發現，總體經濟衝擊反應方面， 調升非耐久財及耐久財消費稅稅率將減少產出，提高物價上漲率;調降勞動所得稅 及利潤稅稅率將增加產出，降低物價上漲率;政府支出增加則產生乘數效果，提高產出，降低物價上漲率。所得分配方面，調升耐久財消費稅稅率，比起調升非耐久 財消費稅稅率，更能縮小所得差距，亦更能降低低所得者之消費稅負擔率。福利方面，在暫時性衝擊下，調升耐久財消費稅稅率，並調降勞動所得稅稅率之財政政策調整工具，為本文四種財政政策工具中最佳之政策工具。此政策工具在調升消費稅稅率的同時，以僅調升耐久財消費稅稅率，並搭配調降勞動所得稅稅率的方式，減緩了消費稅調升對低所得者所造成的負擔。另外，勞動所得稅稅率調降，使勞動供給增加，帶動經濟成長。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper analyzes the impact of increasing the consumption tax rate and decreasing the income tax rate on Taiwan`s macroeconomic, income distribution, and social welfare using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. This study establishes the different consumption tax rates for durable and non-durable goods, while income taxes are divided into labor income tax and profit tax. The research simulates four fiscal policy adjustment instruments to assess their effects on consumption, labor, income, consumption tax burden, and welfare for two types of households. The simulation results reveal that in terms of macroeconomic impacts, raising the consumption tax rates for both durable and non-durable goods will reduce output and increase inflation rates. On the other hand, reducing labor income tax and profit tax rates will boost output and lower inflation rates. Increased government expenditure will produce a multiplier effect, raising output and lowering inflation rates. Regarding income distribution, raising the consumption tax rate for durable goods, compared to non-durable goods, can narrow income gaps and reduce the consumption tax burden on low-income households. In terms of welfare, under temporary shocks, the best fiscal policy instrument among the four is the combination of raising the consumption tax rate for durable goods and reducing the labor income tax rate. Through increasing the consumption tax rate specifically for durable goods while simultaneously decreasing the labor income tax rate, this policy instrument alleviates the burden imposed on low-income households caused by the consumption tax increase. Additionally, the decrease in labor income tax rate leads to increased labor supply, driving economic growth. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第二章 文獻回顧 9第一節 消費稅與效率、福利及經濟成長 9第二節 消費稅與貧富差距 11第三節 耐久財與非耐久財 12第四節 DSGE財政文獻 14第五節 臺灣DSGE模型文獻 17第三章 基本模型 19第一節 家計單位 22第二節 廠商 33第三節 政府 37第四節 外生衝擊 38第五節 均衡條件 39第四章 參數設定與模型校正 41第五章 結果分析 49第一節 衝擊反應分析 49第二節 所得分配與福利分析 62第六章 結論 65第一節 研究發現 65第二節 未來研究方向 66參考文獻 68附錄A 72第一節 家計單位、廠商及政府模型之相關計算過程 72第二節 模型原式、靜態方程式與線性化方程式 82第三節 變數恆定狀態計算過程 102 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2739437 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255002 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 耐久財及非耐久財消費稅 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 所得稅 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般均衡模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 所得分配 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 福利 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Consumption tax on durable and non-durable goods en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Income tax en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Income distribution en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Welfare en_US dc.title (題名) 臺灣消費稅改革之動態隨機一般均衡模型分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis of Taiwan Consumption Tax Reform en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部分：[1] 中央研究院(2014)。賦稅改革政策建議書。中央研究院報告。[2]中央銀行(2023)。「五大銀行平均存款利率」與「五大銀行平均基準利率」。民 112 年 2 月 16 日，取自:https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-371-1040-5C7A0-1.html[3] 內政部戶政司(2023)。人口統計資料。民 112 年 5 月 22 日，取自:https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/portal/346[4] 行政院主計總處(2023)。112 年 1 月人力資源調查統計。民 112 年 5 月 22 日，取自:https://www.stat.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=4000&s=230938[5] 行政院主計總處(2022)。110 年家庭收支調查報告。行政院主計總處。[6] 財政部財政資訊中心(2023)。109 年度綜合所得稅申報核定統計專冊。民 112 年 5 月23 日，取自:https://www.fia.gov.tw/singlehtml/43?cntId=17dcd598b9fd41939cf98c2e4ae162fd[7] 國家發展委員會(2023)。人口推估查詢系統—總生育率。民 112 年 5 月 31 日，取自:https://pop-proj.ndc.gov.tw/dataSearch2.aspx?r=2&uid=2104&pid=59[8] 張富翔(2018)。探討台灣耐久財及非耐久財訂價模式。國立中央大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。[9] 張漪軒(2016)。透過消費稅的稅制改革:以台灣為例。國立中山大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。[10] 傅敬堯、林雪瑜、楊淑珺(2018)。稅制調整與地下經濟—臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型分析。臺灣經濟預測與政策，49(1)，1-45。[11] 勞動部(2023)。112 年 1 月底勞工保險投保人數統計。民 112 年 5 月 22 日，取自:https://statfy.mol.gov.tw/index08.aspx[12] 黃俞寧(2013)。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35(1)，3-33。[13] 管中閔、印永翔、姚睿、黃朝熙、徐之強、陳宜廷(2010)。台灣動態隨機一般均衡模型 (DSGE) 建立與政策評估。行政院經濟建設委員會。[14] 蘇顯揚、呂慧敏(2014)。日本調漲消費稅率的影響。國際經濟情勢雙週報，1801， 5-10。英文部分：[1] Altig, D., Auerbach, A. J., Kotlikoff, L. J., Smetters, K. A., &Walliser, J. (2001). Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States. American Economic Review, 91(3), 574-595.[2] Arnold, J. M. (2008). Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries (No. 643). OECD Economics Department Working Papers,未出版[3] Auerbach, A. J., Kotlikoff, L. J., & Skinner, J. S. (1981). The Efficiency Gains from Dynamic Tax Reform (No. w819). NBER Working Paper Series,未出版[4] Azar, J. A., Berry, S. T., & Marinescu, I. (2022). Estimating Labor Market Power (No. w30365). NBER Working Paper Series,未出版[5] Bhattarai, K., & Trzeciakiewicz, D. (2017). Macroeconomic Impacts of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the UK: A DSGE Analysis. Economic Modelling, 61, 321-338.[6] Bi, H., Shen, W., & Yang, S. C. S. (2016). Fiscal Limits in Developing Countries: A DSGE Approach. Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 119-130.[7] Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered Prices in a Utility-maximizing Framework. Journal of monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.[8] Cantelmo, A., & Melina, G. (2018). Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48.[9] Cantore, C., & Freund, L. B. (2021). Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: Fiscal Policy and Income (Re) Distribution. Journal of Monetary Economics, 119, 58-74.[10] Chen, B. L., & Liao, S. Y. (2014). Capital, Credit Constraints and the Comovement Between Consumer Durables and Nondurables. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 39, 127-139.[11] Chu, S. Y. (2018). Macroeconomic Policies and Housing Market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421.[12] Fauvel, Y., & Samson, L. (1991). Intertemporal Substitution and Durable Goods: An Empirical Analysis. Canadian Journal of Economics, 192-205.[13] Furceri, D., & Mourougane, A. (2010). The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: A DSGE Analysis (No. 770). 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