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題名 Covid-19防疫措施對於觀光類股的影響
The Impact of Covid-19 Preventive Measures on Tourism Industry Stock Prices作者 王愉瑄
Wang, Yu-Xuan貢獻者 胡偉民<br>黃柏鈞
Hu, Wei-Min<br>Huang, Po-Chun
王愉瑄
Wang, Yu-Xuan關鍵詞 新冠疫情
防疫措施
事件研究法
觀光產業
Covid-19
Preventive Measures
Event Study
Tourism Industry日期 2023 上傳時間 1-Sep-2023 16:08:27 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究探討2021年5月至2022年11月政府為了因應新冠疫情(Covid-19)提升疫情警戒並實施相關防疫措施後，隨著疫苗覆蓋率的提升，防疫措施從嚴格實施至逐步放寬對於觀光產業的影響，並將產業細分為餐飲業、飯店業、休閒娛樂業、旅行社四類，利用事件研究法討論各產業的股價是否有產生異常報酬的現象。研究結果顯示，全台升為二級警戒對於各產業產生負向異常報酬；放寬部分場域防疫管制措施則對於各產業產生正向異常報酬；分階段逐步開放邊境管制措施由於消息提前洩漏，在事件日前對於餐飲業、飯店業、旅行社已產生正向異常報酬，但對於休閒娛樂業的影響並不顯著；隨著國內疫情趨緩，放寬戴口罩等防疫措施以及取消入境人數上限，對於餐飲業、飯店業、旅行社產生正向異常報酬，但同樣對於休閒娛樂業的影響並不顯著。除此之外，針對日本開放時程對於旅行社股的影響進行討論，發現具有正面影響，並且又另外應用最小平方法(OLS)線性迴歸模型研究旅行社每月營收與其股價報酬率之關聯，指出股價已經提前反應完畢，二者之間呈現負相關。
This study investigates the period from May 2021 to November 2022, during which the government implemented escalated pandemic alert levels and related preventive measures in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. As vaccination coverage increased, the strict implementation of these measures gradually transitioned to a phased relaxation. This study focuses on the impact of these measures on the tourism industry, specifically in the segments of the restaurant industry, hotel industry, leisure and entertainment industry, and travel agencies. The event study methodology is employed to examine whether abnormal returns occurred in the stock prices of these industries.The research findings indicate that the escalation to Level 2 alert has a negative abnormal return on these industries. However, the relaxation of specific venue-based preventive measures results in positive abnormal returns on these industries. The phased reopening of border control measures, although accompanied by the pre-event leak of information, leads to positive abnormal returns for the restaurant industry, hotel industry, and travel agencies before the event date. However, its impact on the leisure and entertainment industry is not significant. As the domestic epidemic situation eases, the relaxation of preventive measures such as mask mandates and removal entry restrictions generates positive abnormal returns for the restaurant industry, hotel industry, and travel agencies. However, the impact on the leisure and entertainment industry remains insignificant.In addition, a discussion is conducted regarding the impact of Japan`s reopening timeline on travel agency stocks, revealing a positive effect. Furthermore, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression model is applied to examine the relationship between monthly revenue and stock price returns for travel agencies. The analysis indicates that stock prices have already preemptively factored in the information, showing a negative correlation between the two.參考文獻 一、中文文獻1.王馨妮，2022，新型冠狀病毒肺炎對股市報酬率之影響—以觀光產業為例，亞洲大學財務金融學系，碩士論文。2.沈中華、李建然，2000，事件研究法—財務與會計實證研究必備，華泰文化事業公司。3.徐偉翔，2022，Covid-19疫情對臺灣觀光類股的影響—以事件研究法分析，國立台中科技大學企管管理系碩士在職專班，碩士論文。4.蔡柔穎，2022，Covid-19首例確診宣告對台美兩地觀光相關類股的影響，國立高雄大學金融管理學系，碩士論文。5.吳幸姬、李顯儀，2006，產業月營收變化與股價報酬的關聯性之研究，管理科學研究，3(2)，61-74。二、英文文獻1.Al-Awadhi, A. M., Alsaifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., & Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100326.2.Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?. Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 101249.3.Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 742-758.4.Chen, C. D., Chen, C. C., Tang, W. W., & Huang, B. Y. (2009). The positive and negative impacts of the SARS outbreak: A case of the Taiwan industries. Journal of Developing Areas, 281-293.5.Chen, M. H., Jang, S. S., & Kim, W. G. (2007). The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 26(1), 200-212.6.Hui, E., & Chan, K. K. K. (2022). How does Covid-19 affect global equity markets?. Financial Innovation, 8(1), 1-19.7.John W. Goodell , Toan Luu Duc Huynh (2020).Did Congress trade ahead? Considering the reaction of US industries to COVID-19. Finance Research Letters 36 (2020): 101578.8.Liu, H., Manzoor, A., Wang, C., Zhang, L., & Manzoor, Z. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak and affected countries stock markets response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 2800.9.Liu, H., Wang, Y., He, D., & Wang, C. (2020). Short term response of Chinese stock markets to the outbreak of COVID-19. Applied Economics, 52(53), 5859-5872.10.Nippani*, S., & Washer, K. M. (2004). SARS: a non-event for affected countries’ stock markets?. Applied Financial Economics, 14(15), 1105-1110.11.Wu, W., Lee, C. C., Xing, W., & Ho, S. J. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Chinese-listed tourism stocks. Financial Innovation, 7, 1-18.12.Zhang, D., Hu, M., & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101528. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255010資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255010 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 胡偉民<br>黃柏鈞 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Hu, Wei-Min<br>Huang, Po-Chun en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 王愉瑄 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wang, Yu-Xuan en_US dc.creator (作者) 王愉瑄 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wang, Yu-Xuan en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2023 16:08:27 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Sep-2023 16:08:27 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2023 16:08:27 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110255010 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147216 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110255010 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究探討2021年5月至2022年11月政府為了因應新冠疫情(Covid-19)提升疫情警戒並實施相關防疫措施後，隨著疫苗覆蓋率的提升，防疫措施從嚴格實施至逐步放寬對於觀光產業的影響，並將產業細分為餐飲業、飯店業、休閒娛樂業、旅行社四類，利用事件研究法討論各產業的股價是否有產生異常報酬的現象。研究結果顯示，全台升為二級警戒對於各產業產生負向異常報酬；放寬部分場域防疫管制措施則對於各產業產生正向異常報酬；分階段逐步開放邊境管制措施由於消息提前洩漏，在事件日前對於餐飲業、飯店業、旅行社已產生正向異常報酬，但對於休閒娛樂業的影響並不顯著；隨著國內疫情趨緩，放寬戴口罩等防疫措施以及取消入境人數上限，對於餐飲業、飯店業、旅行社產生正向異常報酬，但同樣對於休閒娛樂業的影響並不顯著。除此之外，針對日本開放時程對於旅行社股的影響進行討論，發現具有正面影響，並且又另外應用最小平方法(OLS)線性迴歸模型研究旅行社每月營收與其股價報酬率之關聯，指出股價已經提前反應完畢，二者之間呈現負相關。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study investigates the period from May 2021 to November 2022, during which the government implemented escalated pandemic alert levels and related preventive measures in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. As vaccination coverage increased, the strict implementation of these measures gradually transitioned to a phased relaxation. This study focuses on the impact of these measures on the tourism industry, specifically in the segments of the restaurant industry, hotel industry, leisure and entertainment industry, and travel agencies. The event study methodology is employed to examine whether abnormal returns occurred in the stock prices of these industries.The research findings indicate that the escalation to Level 2 alert has a negative abnormal return on these industries. However, the relaxation of specific venue-based preventive measures results in positive abnormal returns on these industries. The phased reopening of border control measures, although accompanied by the pre-event leak of information, leads to positive abnormal returns for the restaurant industry, hotel industry, and travel agencies before the event date. However, its impact on the leisure and entertainment industry is not significant. As the domestic epidemic situation eases, the relaxation of preventive measures such as mask mandates and removal entry restrictions generates positive abnormal returns for the restaurant industry, hotel industry, and travel agencies. However, the impact on the leisure and entertainment industry remains insignificant.In addition, a discussion is conducted regarding the impact of Japan`s reopening timeline on travel agency stocks, revealing a positive effect. Furthermore, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression model is applied to examine the relationship between monthly revenue and stock price returns for travel agencies. The analysis indicates that stock prices have already preemptively factored in the information, showing a negative correlation between the two. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的 2第三節 研究流程 3第二章 文獻探討 4第一節 SARS對於股市的影響 4第二節 Covid-19對於股市的影響 5第三章 研究方法 9第一節 研究樣本 9第二節 事件研究法 11第三節 操作流程 11第四章 實證結果分析 20第一節 2021年5月11日全台升為二級警戒 20第二節 2021年9月27日，指揮中心宣布部分場域放寬防疫管制措施，並於10月5日起有條件開放部分休閒娛樂場所 29第三節 2022年9月22日，分階段逐步開放邊境管制措施 38第三之一節 2022年9月29日，第一階段開放邊境管制措施 47第三之二節 2022年10月13日，第二階段開放邊境管制措施 56第四節 2022年11月28日，指揮中心宣布12月1日起適度放寬戴口罩等防疫措施以及取消入境人數上限 65第五節 日本開放時程對於旅行社股的影響 77第六節 旅行社股價報酬率對於旅行社營收的影響 87第五章 結論與建議 91第一節 研究結論 91第二節 研究限制與研究建議 92第六章 參考資料 94 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1042651 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255010 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新冠疫情 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 防疫措施 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 事件研究法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 觀光產業 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Covid-19 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Preventive Measures en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Event Study en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tourism Industry en_US dc.title (題名) Covid-19防疫措施對於觀光類股的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Covid-19 Preventive Measures on Tourism Industry Stock Prices en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文文獻1.王馨妮，2022，新型冠狀病毒肺炎對股市報酬率之影響—以觀光產業為例，亞洲大學財務金融學系，碩士論文。2.沈中華、李建然，2000，事件研究法—財務與會計實證研究必備，華泰文化事業公司。3.徐偉翔，2022，Covid-19疫情對臺灣觀光類股的影響—以事件研究法分析，國立台中科技大學企管管理系碩士在職專班，碩士論文。4.蔡柔穎，2022，Covid-19首例確診宣告對台美兩地觀光相關類股的影響，國立高雄大學金融管理學系，碩士論文。5.吳幸姬、李顯儀，2006，產業月營收變化與股價報酬的關聯性之研究，管理科學研究，3(2)，61-74。二、英文文獻1.Al-Awadhi, A. M., Alsaifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., & Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100326.2.Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?. Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 101249.3.Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 742-758.4.Chen, C. D., Chen, C. C., Tang, W. W., & Huang, B. Y. (2009). The positive and negative impacts of the SARS outbreak: A case of the Taiwan industries. Journal of Developing Areas, 281-293.5.Chen, M. H., Jang, S. S., & Kim, W. G. (2007). The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 26(1), 200-212.6.Hui, E., & Chan, K. K. K. (2022). How does Covid-19 affect global equity markets?. Financial Innovation, 8(1), 1-19.7.John W. Goodell , Toan Luu Duc Huynh (2020).Did Congress trade ahead? Considering the reaction of US industries to COVID-19. Finance Research Letters 36 (2020): 101578.8.Liu, H., Manzoor, A., Wang, C., Zhang, L., & Manzoor, Z. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak and affected countries stock markets response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 2800.9.Liu, H., Wang, Y., He, D., & Wang, C. (2020). Short term response of Chinese stock markets to the outbreak of COVID-19. Applied Economics, 52(53), 5859-5872.10.Nippani*, S., & Washer, K. M. (2004). SARS: a non-event for affected countries’ stock markets?. Applied Financial Economics, 14(15), 1105-1110.11.Wu, W., Lee, C. C., Xing, W., & Ho, S. J. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Chinese-listed tourism stocks. Financial Innovation, 7, 1-18.12.Zhang, D., Hu, M., & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101528. zh_TW
