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題名 囤房稅政策與房價效應：以臺灣大臺北都會區的實證為例
Multi-House Tax Policy and Housing Price Effect: Evidence from the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area in Taiwan作者 謝明穎
Hsieh, Ming-Ying貢獻者 吳文傑<br>傅健豪
Wu, Wen-Chieh<br>Fu, Chien-Hao
謝明穎
Hsieh, Ming-Ying關鍵詞 囤房稅政策
房價
房地產囤積
不動產炒作
財政資本化
交互作用函數
Multi-House Tax Policy
Housing Prices
Hoarding Properties
Speculations of Real Estate
Fiscal Capitalization
Interaction Functions日期 2023 上傳時間 1-Sep-2023 16:13:23 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究分析了2013年1月到2017年6月內政部不動產實價登錄中臺北市、新北市和基隆市行政區的資料集，運用享樂定價模型探究臺灣囤房稅政策對房價的影響。實證結果顯示，該政策並未達到降低房價的目標，反而導致房價上漲，整體形成正向的財政資本化現象。此外，我們進一步以交互作用函數瞭解正財政資本化在不同經濟程度的地區、建物類型和行政區之間的影響。實證結果顯示，囤房稅政策對於華廈的影響最為顯著，導致房價增幅最高。住宅大樓和套房也出現顯著的價格上漲，尤其是住宅大樓對市場需求的反應更為明顯。商店和辦公商業大樓的價格也有所上漲。然而，公寓的價格下降最多，這是因為其買者因稅負負擔增加，造成交易房價下降，間接導致了不同建物類型的屋主族群間出現財政資本化。儘管在政策實施前，本研究未發現房價與當地經濟狀況之間的明確相關性，但研究發現政策實施後正向財政資本化只會發生在高所得地區，意即直接受政策影響的臺北市。在綜合考慮行政區層面的因素時，我們證實土地公告現值的調整直接影響了房地產囤積的成本，進而對不同行政區的房價結果產生影響。
This study analyzes the impact of the multi-house tax policy on housing prices using sales records from the Actual Price Registration of Real Estate Transaction dataset in Taipei, New Taipei, and Keelung Cities. The findings from January 2013 to June 2017 indicate that the policy did not achieve its goal of lowering housing prices; instead, prices increased, showing a positive fiscal capitalization phenomenon. Besides, this paper utilizes the interaction function to know how positive fiscal capitalization impacts regions with different income levels, property types, and administrative districts.The empirical results show that the multi-house tax policy had the most significant impact on mansions, resulting in the largest price increase. Residential buildings and suites also experienced substantial price increases, with residential buildings showing a more pronounced response to market demand. Shopfronts and office buildings also demonstrate price increases. Condominium prices, on the other hand, decreased due to increased tax expenses for buyers of condominiums particularly, indirectly leading to fiscal capitalization among homeowners of different property types.While no clear correlation between housing prices and local economic status was found before policy implementation, positive fiscal capitalization was observed only in high-income areas, specifically in Taipei City, which was directly affected by the policy. At the administrative district level, when considering general factors, adjustments in declared land present values directly influenced property hoarding costs, thereby affecting housing prices among different districts.參考文獻 Journal articlesCharles M. Tiebout (1956). “A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy 46(5): 416-424.D` Lima, W., et al. (2022). “COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders.” Real Estate Economics 50(2): 303-339.J. Hoekstra and C. Zad (2011). “High Vacancy Rates and Rising House Price: The Spanish Paradox.” Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie, (102): 55-71.J. J Lee, Y. H. Lu, and A. C. Ting (2012). “A Study in the Relationship among the Population, Family Income and Housing Price of Various Districts in Taipei City.” Journal of Commercial Modernization, 6(3): 243-254.S. K. Woo, C. J. Pai, Y. T. Chiang and W. T. Fang (2022). “Predicting the Protective Behavioral Intentions for Parents with Young Children Living in Taipei City and New Taipei City Using the Theory of Planned Behavior for Air Polluted with PM2.5” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2023, 20, 2518.S Xu, M Chen, T Feng, L Zhan, L Zhou, G Yu (2021). Use ggbreak to effectively utilize plotting space to deal with large datasets and outliers. Frontiers in Genetics. 12:774846. doi: 10.3389/fgene.2021.774846Theses/DissertationsC. C. Lee (2022). “Land Value Tax Capitalization in Taiwan: A Quasi-Experiment of City-County Merger with Administrative Tax Data.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis). National Chengchi University. Taipei City.C. M. Hsueh (2016). “The Relationships among Luxury Tax, Low Fertility, and House Prices－ A Case of The School Districts of The Large Elementary Schools in Changhua City.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis) National Changhua University of Education, Changhua County.J. H. Chen (2020). “The Impact of Vacant House Tax Policies on House Prices: A Synthetic Control Approach.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis) National Taichung University of Science and Technology, Taichung City.N. Y. Wang and M. Y. Lin (2012). “The Reasons and Impacts of Hot Money Flow in Taiwan.” [In Chinese] (Thesis) Taiwan Economic Forum. (vol.10, no.3): 60-80. National Development Council, Taipei City.T. W. Yang (2019). “The impact of social housing on surrounding residential housing price: New Taipei City case” (Master’s thesis) National Chengchi University, Taipei City.W. C. Lee (2010). “Impact of Vacancy Rate on Housing Prices in Taiwan.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis) National Chengchi University, Taipei City.Y. C. Lin (2021). “The Impact of Non-Self-Use House Tax on Vacancy Rate.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis). National Taiwan University. Taipei City.WebsitesBusiness Today, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 07/12/2023, “South Korea imposes heavy taxes with a maximum of 60% on transactions involving multiple propertiesin a single household.” Retrieved from https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/80392/post/201311280018/C. C. Chang (2021). “Thank goodness the `multi-house tax policy` wasn`t implemented? Rent skyrocketed in South Korea! Experts provide evidence: `These two groups will ultimately be punished`.” Citation format for webpages in Chinese. 03/14/2023,Business Today Weekly. Retrieved from https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/192008/post/202103140002/China Trust Real-Estate, “What is ‘Empty House Tax’? Understanding payment, calculation, new regulations, and tax-saving methods in 5 minutes!” Citation format for webpages in Chinese. 05/30/2023, Retrieved from https://www.cthouse.com.tw/knowledge/class/news-31.htmlDDROOM, citation format for webpages in Chinese. “What are the differences between Residential Buildings, Condominiums, and Mansions? A simple way to distinguish them is as follows,” 06/20/2022, Retrieved fromhttps://www.dd-room.com/article/60dad430f0e54888ff126721D. Liberto (2023). Investopedia, 06/28/2023, “Understanding the House Price Index (HPI) and How It Is Used.” Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/house-price-index-hpi.aspGovernment of Canada, “Underused Housing Tax” 07/08/2023. Retrieved from https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/news/newsroom/tax-tips/tax-tips-2023/underused-housing-tax-penalties-and-interest-waived.htmlHouse 123, citation format for webpages in Chinese. “Can ‘Commercial Land’ BePurchased for Residential Use?” 02/01/2021, Retrieved fromhttps://house123.com.tw/%E5%AE%89%E5%B1%85%E8%87%AA%E4%BD%8F/985-%E5%95%86%E6%A5%AD%E7%94%A8%E5%9C%B0%E5%8F%AF%E4%BB%A5%E8%B2%B7%E4%BE%86%E5%81%9A%E4%BD%8F%E5%AE%85J. F. Lin, and M. D. Liu (2010), National Policy Foundation, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 07/26/2013, “The causes and solutions to high housing prices.” Retrieved from https://www.npf.org.tw/3/7524J. Robart (2020). Policy Commons, “Policy Analysis, Potential Design and Possible Implementation of a Vacant Home Tax in Toronto.” 07/08/2023. Retrieved from https://policycommons.net/artifacts/3774850/policy-analysis-potential-design-and-possible-implementation-of-a-vacant-home-tax-in-toronto/4580546/L. Belsie (2021). The Christian Science Monitor, “Taxes and the rich: America’s history of favoritism and crackdowns.” 07/08/2023. Retrieved fromhttps://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2021/0621/Taxes-and-the-rich-America-s-history-of-favoritism-and-crackdownsLaws and Regulations Retrieving System, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 06/09/2023, The Ministry of Finance, R.O.C. Retrieved fromhttps://law-out.mof.gov.tw/EngLawContent.aspx?lan=E&id=143Legislative Yuan, Republic of China (Taiwan), citation format for webpages in Chinese. “Analysis of Issues Related to the Multi-House Tax Policy,” 04/19/2023, Retrieved from https://www.ly.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeid=6590&pid=208699Liberty Times Net, citation format for webpages in Chinese. “The only one among the six municipalities without ` the multi-house tax`: New Taipei City`s housing tax collection rate sparks a blue-green political battle due to a stalled autonomous ordinance.” 07/03/2023. Retrieved from https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/4352634National Taxation Bureau of Taipei, Ministry of Finance, citation format for webpages in Chinese. “【Integrated House and Land Tax 2.0】- Overview of the Six Major Amendments to the Integrated House and Land Tax 2.0,” 07/04/2023. Retrieved from https://www.ntbt.gov.tw/singlehtml/cd61d91304fc4fb194571fea1d82ba35?cntId=fa38f9d9fdae496b82ee5ce5061d2041Real Estate Loan Expert, citation format for webpages in Chinese. “【Detailed Explanation of Property Hoarding Tax】Table of the Non-Self-Use Residential Tax Rates in Each City and County, grasp important information such as the purpose, calculation method, and application process of the property hoarding tax all at once!” 07/04/2023. Retrieved from https://reurl.cc/QXa442S. H. Lin (2021). “After the frenzy in the Korean housing market finally subsided, what did President Moon Jae-in do right in tackling the housing issue?” Citation format for webpages in Chinese. 06/18/2023, Global Views Monthly. Retrieved fromhttps://www.gvm.com.tw/article/85090Taxation Administration, The Ministry of Finance, R.O.C., citation format for webpages in Chinese. The press release from Tax Administration Division, 03/12/2021, Retrieved from https://www.dot.gov.tw/singlehtml/ch26?cntId=a79fe47933104ba9be299f5166312307The Storm Media, citation format for webpages in Chinese. “The multi-house tax policy implemented in six municipalities! Understand the impact with a single table, experts reveala reliable way to save on taxes.” 07/05/2023. Retrieved fromhttps://www.storm.mg/article/4429833T. Y. Lin (2023), HouseFun News, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 07/10/2023, “Is the multi-house tax the ‘Heavenly Sword’ of housing justice?” Retrieved from https://news.housefun.com.tw/tsoyulin/article/205058383225Y. Y. Hsiang (2019), The Storm Media, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 07/10/2023, “Why are low-rise buildings with elevators and parking spaces unpopular among both developers and consumers? Insiders list these fatal flaws.” Retrieved from https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/2101794Online documentsActual Price Registration of Real Estate Transactions, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 02/15/2023, Department of Land Administration, The Ministry of the Interior, R.O.C. Retrieved from http://lvr.land.moi.gov.tw/Department of Households Registration, citation format for webpages in Chinese.03/06/2023, The Ministry of Interior, R.O.C. Retrieved from https://www.ris.gov.tw/app/portal/346Key Statistical Indicators of Taipei City for 2014, citation format for reports in Chinese. Department of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics, Taipei City Government. Retrieved from https://dbas.gov.taipei/News.aspx?n=B92B6711ADF4A1D6&sms=B448ADA5CF5DA6A7National Statistical Analysis Table of Total Individual Income by Counties, Cities, Townships, and Villages, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 03/20/2023, DATA.GOV.TW. Retrieved from https://data.gov.tw/dataset/103066Real Estate Information Platform, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 04/01/2023, The Ministry of Interior. Retrieved from https://pip.moi.gov.tw/v3/e/SCRE0104.aspxStatistical Information Topic Search, citation format for reports in Chinese. Real EstateInformation Platform, 04/05/2023, Retrieved from https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V3/E/SCRE0401.aspxTrading Economics, 06/15/2023, “Taiwan House Price Index.” Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/housing-indexTrading Economics, 06/15/2023, “South Korea House Price Index.” Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/housing-index 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
110266009資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110266009 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑<br>傅健豪 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Wen-Chieh<br>Fu, Chien-Hao en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 謝明穎 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsieh, Ming-Ying en_US dc.creator (作者) 謝明穎 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hsieh, Ming-Ying en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2023 16:13:23 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Sep-2023 16:13:23 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2023 16:13:23 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110266009 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147237 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110266009 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究分析了2013年1月到2017年6月內政部不動產實價登錄中臺北市、新北市和基隆市行政區的資料集，運用享樂定價模型探究臺灣囤房稅政策對房價的影響。實證結果顯示，該政策並未達到降低房價的目標，反而導致房價上漲，整體形成正向的財政資本化現象。此外，我們進一步以交互作用函數瞭解正財政資本化在不同經濟程度的地區、建物類型和行政區之間的影響。實證結果顯示，囤房稅政策對於華廈的影響最為顯著，導致房價增幅最高。住宅大樓和套房也出現顯著的價格上漲，尤其是住宅大樓對市場需求的反應更為明顯。商店和辦公商業大樓的價格也有所上漲。然而，公寓的價格下降最多，這是因為其買者因稅負負擔增加，造成交易房價下降，間接導致了不同建物類型的屋主族群間出現財政資本化。儘管在政策實施前，本研究未發現房價與當地經濟狀況之間的明確相關性，但研究發現政策實施後正向財政資本化只會發生在高所得地區，意即直接受政策影響的臺北市。在綜合考慮行政區層面的因素時，我們證實土地公告現值的調整直接影響了房地產囤積的成本，進而對不同行政區的房價結果產生影響。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study analyzes the impact of the multi-house tax policy on housing prices using sales records from the Actual Price Registration of Real Estate Transaction dataset in Taipei, New Taipei, and Keelung Cities. The findings from January 2013 to June 2017 indicate that the policy did not achieve its goal of lowering housing prices; instead, prices increased, showing a positive fiscal capitalization phenomenon. Besides, this paper utilizes the interaction function to know how positive fiscal capitalization impacts regions with different income levels, property types, and administrative districts.The empirical results show that the multi-house tax policy had the most significant impact on mansions, resulting in the largest price increase. Residential buildings and suites also experienced substantial price increases, with residential buildings showing a more pronounced response to market demand. Shopfronts and office buildings also demonstrate price increases. Condominium prices, on the other hand, decreased due to increased tax expenses for buyers of condominiums particularly, indirectly leading to fiscal capitalization among homeowners of different property types.While no clear correlation between housing prices and local economic status was found before policy implementation, positive fiscal capitalization was observed only in high-income areas, specifically in Taipei City, which was directly affected by the policy. At the administrative district level, when considering general factors, adjustments in declared land present values directly influenced property hoarding costs, thereby affecting housing prices among different districts. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 11.1 Research Motivation 11.2 Research Objective 51.3 Policy Background 92. Dataset and Sample 212.1 Introduction of Dataset 212.2 Data Cleaning 222.3 Variable Names and Descriptions 232.3.1 Property Characteristics 232.3.2 Macroeconomic Conditions 242.3.3 Control Variables 252.5 Summary Statistical Description 342.6 Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient 453. Empirical Analysis 473.1 Regression Framework 473.2 Empirical Results 503.2.1 Average Post-Multi-House Tax Policy Pricing Effects 523.2.2 Heterogeneous Pricing Effects: Local Economic Status 553.2.3 Heterogeneous Pricing Effects: Property Types 613.2.4 Heterogeneous Pricing Effects: Districts in Taipei City 653.3 Spatial Dependence on Housing Prices 684. Conclusion 734.1 The Effectiveness of the Multi-House Tax Policy 734.2 Suggestions for Further Researches 76Reference 80 zh_TW dc.format.extent 6088003 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110266009 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 囤房稅政策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房價 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房地產囤積 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不動產炒作 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財政資本化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 交互作用函數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Multi-House Tax Policy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing Prices en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Hoarding Properties en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Speculations of Real Estate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fiscal Capitalization en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Interaction Functions en_US dc.title (題名) 囤房稅政策與房價效應：以臺灣大臺北都會區的實證為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Multi-House Tax Policy and Housing Price Effect: Evidence from the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Journal articlesCharles M. Tiebout (1956). “A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy 46(5): 416-424.D` Lima, W., et al. (2022). “COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders.” Real Estate Economics 50(2): 303-339.J. Hoekstra and C. Zad (2011). “High Vacancy Rates and Rising House Price: The Spanish Paradox.” Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie, (102): 55-71.J. J Lee, Y. H. Lu, and A. C. Ting (2012). “A Study in the Relationship among the Population, Family Income and Housing Price of Various Districts in Taipei City.” Journal of Commercial Modernization, 6(3): 243-254.S. K. Woo, C. J. Pai, Y. T. Chiang and W. T. Fang (2022). “Predicting the Protective Behavioral Intentions for Parents with Young Children Living in Taipei City and New Taipei City Using the Theory of Planned Behavior for Air Polluted with PM2.5” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2023, 20, 2518.S Xu, M Chen, T Feng, L Zhan, L Zhou, G Yu (2021). Use ggbreak to effectively utilize plotting space to deal with large datasets and outliers. Frontiers in Genetics. 12:774846. doi: 10.3389/fgene.2021.774846Theses/DissertationsC. C. Lee (2022). “Land Value Tax Capitalization in Taiwan: A Quasi-Experiment of City-County Merger with Administrative Tax Data.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis). National Chengchi University. Taipei City.C. M. Hsueh (2016). “The Relationships among Luxury Tax, Low Fertility, and House Prices－ A Case of The School Districts of The Large Elementary Schools in Changhua City.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis) National Changhua University of Education, Changhua County.J. H. Chen (2020). “The Impact of Vacant House Tax Policies on House Prices: A Synthetic Control Approach.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis) National Taichung University of Science and Technology, Taichung City.N. Y. Wang and M. Y. Lin (2012). “The Reasons and Impacts of Hot Money Flow in Taiwan.” [In Chinese] (Thesis) Taiwan Economic Forum. (vol.10, no.3): 60-80. National Development Council, Taipei City.T. W. Yang (2019). “The impact of social housing on surrounding residential housing price: New Taipei City case” (Master’s thesis) National Chengchi University, Taipei City.W. C. Lee (2010). “Impact of Vacancy Rate on Housing Prices in Taiwan.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis) National Chengchi University, Taipei City.Y. C. Lin (2021). “The Impact of Non-Self-Use House Tax on Vacancy Rate.” [In Chinese] (Master’s thesis). National Taiwan University. Taipei City.WebsitesBusiness Today, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 07/12/2023, “South Korea imposes heavy taxes with a maximum of 60% on transactions involving multiple propertiesin a single household.” Retrieved from https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/80392/post/201311280018/C. C. Chang (2021). “Thank goodness the `multi-house tax policy` wasn`t implemented? Rent skyrocketed in South Korea! Experts provide evidence: `These two groups will ultimately be punished`.” Citation format for webpages in Chinese. 03/14/2023,Business Today Weekly. Retrieved from https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/192008/post/202103140002/China Trust Real-Estate, “What is ‘Empty House Tax’? Understanding payment, calculation, new regulations, and tax-saving methods in 5 minutes!” Citation format for webpages in Chinese. 05/30/2023, Retrieved from https://www.cthouse.com.tw/knowledge/class/news-31.htmlDDROOM, citation format for webpages in Chinese. “What are the differences between Residential Buildings, Condominiums, and Mansions? A simple way to distinguish them is as follows,” 06/20/2022, Retrieved fromhttps://www.dd-room.com/article/60dad430f0e54888ff126721D. Liberto (2023). Investopedia, 06/28/2023, “Understanding the House Price Index (HPI) and How It Is Used.” Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/house-price-index-hpi.aspGovernment of Canada, “Underused Housing Tax” 07/08/2023. Retrieved from https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/news/newsroom/tax-tips/tax-tips-2023/underused-housing-tax-penalties-and-interest-waived.htmlHouse 123, citation format for webpages in Chinese. “Can ‘Commercial Land’ BePurchased for Residential Use?” 02/01/2021, Retrieved fromhttps://house123.com.tw/%E5%AE%89%E5%B1%85%E8%87%AA%E4%BD%8F/985-%E5%95%86%E6%A5%AD%E7%94%A8%E5%9C%B0%E5%8F%AF%E4%BB%A5%E8%B2%B7%E4%BE%86%E5%81%9A%E4%BD%8F%E5%AE%85J. F. Lin, and M. D. Liu (2010), National Policy Foundation, citation format for webpages in Chinese. 07/26/2013, “The causes and solutions to high housing prices.” Retrieved from https://www.npf.org.tw/3/7524J. Robart (2020). 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