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題名 碳信用抵換期貨發展及交易之研究
Research on the Development and Trading of Carbon Offset Futures
作者 陳彥惇
Chen, Yen-Tun
貢獻者 林士貴<br>黃炳鈞
Lin, Shih-Kuei<br>Huang, Bing-Jing
陳彥惇
Chen, Yen-Tun
關鍵詞 碳權
自願性碳權市場
碳信用抵換期貨
機器學習
長短記憶模型
voluntary carbon market
carbon offset futures
machine learning
LSTM
日期 2024
上傳時間 1-Feb-2024 11:31:48 (UTC+8)
摘要 2021年舉辦的COP26，各締約國簽署格拉斯哥氣候協議（Glasgow Climate Pact），同意全球必須採取更積極作為，達成2050年淨零碳排，以守住升溫臨界值攝氏 1.5 度之目標。若要實現淨零碳排的目標，強制性市場工具（如各國政府實施的碳排放總量管制、碳費）及自願性市場工具（如碳信用抵換機制）皆扮演重要角色。碳信用抵換期貨市場近年發展快速，以CME所上市之GEO及N-GEO期貨最為成功；本研究發現，CME碳信用抵換期貨在不同到期日之契約間具有正價差之特性，且該特性不因價格走跌而消失；此外，未平倉量及交易需求主要皆集中在當年度12月份到期之契約，此現象應與歐、美碳排放配額市場之法遵期限有關。實證部分，本論文透過RNN機器學習模型－LSTM，進行GEO及N-GEO期貨價格之預測，發現除碳信用抵換商品外，加入碳排放配額資產（EUA期貨及RGGI期貨）及能源類資產（天然氣期貨及電力期貨）對GEO及N-GEO期貨價格皆有良好的預測效果。
In 2021, during the COP26 conference, participating countries signed the Glasgow Climate Pact. They agreed that global efforts must be more proactive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, aiming to keep the global temperature rise below the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve the goal of net-zero carbon emissions, both compliance market tools (such as cap-and-trade mechanism implemented by governments) and voluntary market tools (such as carbon credit offset) play important roles. In recent years, the carbon offset futures market has rapidly developed, with the GEO and N-GEO futures listed on the CME proving to be particularly successful. This study found that CME carbon offset futures exhibit contango between contracts with different expiration periods, and this characteristic persists even when prices decline. Furthermore, open interest and trading demand are primarily concentrated in contracts expiring in December of the current year, a phenomenon likely related to compliance deadlines in the European and American carbon emission markets. In the empirical part of the study, the paper uses the RNN machine learning model – LSTM to predict the prices of GEO and N-GEO futures. The findings indicate that, apart from carbon credit offset itself, adding carbon emission allowance assets (EUA & RGGI futures) and energy-related assets (Nature Gas & Electricity futures) can demonstrate good predictive capabilities for GEO and N-GEO futures prices.
參考文獻 一、期刊文章、會議論文及研究報告 1.Batten, J. a., Maddox, G. e., & Young, M. r. (2021). Does Weather, or Energy Prices, Affect Carbon Prices? Energy Economics, Volume 9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105016 2.Benessaiah, K. (2021). Carbon and Livelihoods in Post-Kyoto: Assessing Voluntary Carbon Markets. Ecological Economics, Volume 77, Pages 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.022 3.Bose, A., Cohen, J., Fattouh, B., Johnson, O., & Spilker, G. (2021). Voluntary Markets for Carbon Offsets: Evolution and Lessons for the LNG Market. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Voluntary-markets-for-carbon-offsets-Evolution-features-and-lessons-for-the-LNG-market-ET03.pdf 4.Broekhof, D., Gillenwater, M., Colbert-sangree, T., & Cage, P. (2019). Securing Climate Benefit: A Guide to Using Carbon Offsets (劉仲恩、蔡香吾, 譯). Stockholm Environment Institute & Greenhouse Gas Management Institute. https://www.offsetguide.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Carbon-Offset-Guide_3122020.pdf 5.Byun, S. joon, & Cho, H. (2013). Forecasting Carbon Futures Volatility Using GARCH Models with Energy Volatilities. Energy Economics, Volume 40, Pages 207–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.017 6.Chevallier, J., Nguyen, D. K., & Reboredo, J. C. (2019). A Conditional Dependence Approach to CO2-Energy Price Relationships. Energy Economics, Volume 81, 812–821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.05.010 7.Coffman, D., & Lockley, A. (2017). Carbon Dioxide Removal and the Futures Market. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12(Number 1), 015003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa54e8 8.Fattouh, B., & Maino, A. (2022). Article 6 and Voluntary Carbon Markets. Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, Volume 114 https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/article-6-and-voluntary-carbon-markets/. 9.Ji, L., Zou, Y., He, K., & Zhu, B. (2019). Carbon Futures Price Forecasting Based with ARIMA-CNN-LSTM Model. Procedia Computer Science, Volume 162, Pages 33–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2019.11.254 10.Li, H., Huang, X., Zhou, D., Cao, A., Su, M., Wang, Y., & Guo, L. (2022). Forecasting Carbon Price in China: A Multimodel Comparison. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Volume 19(10), 6217. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106217 11.Luo, X., Yu, R., Guo, Y., Jia, H., & Liu, D. (2022). Carbon Price Prediction of LSTM Method Based on Attention Mechanism. 2022 4th International Conference on Smart Power & Internet Energy Systems (SPIES). https://doi.org/10.1109/SPIES55999.2022.10082179 12.Palao, F., & Pardo, Á. (2021). The Inconvenience Yield of Carbon Futures. Energy Economics, Volume 101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105461 13.Spilker, G., & Nugent, N. (2022). Voluntary Carbon Market Derivatives: Growth, Innovation & Usage. Borsa Istanbul Review, Volume 22, Supplement 2, Pages S109–S118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.11.008 14.Tan, X., & Wang, X. (2017). Dependence Changes between the Carbon Price and Its Fundamentals: A Quantile Regression Approach. Applied Energy, Volume 190(issue C), 306–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.116 15.Trück, S., Weron, R. (2016). Convenience Yields and Risk Premiums in the EU-ETS - Evidence from the Kyoto Commitment Period. The Journal of Futures Markets, Volume 36(6), 587–611. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2889860 16.Zhou, F., Huang, Z., & Zhang, C. (2022). Carbon Price Forecasting Based on CEEMDAN and LSTM. Applied Energy, Volume 311, 118601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118601 17.郭博堯. (2022). 聯合國碳交易市場之建構與展望. 於中技社通訊, 141(春季刊), 17–19. https://www.ctci.org.tw/ebook/CTCI_quarterly_141/141Spring.html 二、官方文件及報告書 1.Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (2023). Release Number 8829-23: CFTC Issues Proposed Guidance Regarding the Listing of Voluntary Carbon Credit Derivative Contracts. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8829-23 2.European Commission. (2021). Use of international credits https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets/use-international-credits_en 3.European Securities and Markets Authority. (2022). Final Report: Emission Allowances and Associated Derivatives. https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/esma70-445-38_final_report_on_emission_allowances_and_associated_derivatives.pdf 4.International Swaps and Derivatives Association. (2021). Legal Implications of Voluntary Carbon Credits. https://www.isda.org/a/38ngE/Legal-Implications-of-Voluntary-Carbon-Credits.pdf 5.International Swaps and Derivatives Association. (2021). Role of Derivatives in Carbon Markets. https://www.isda.org/a/soigE/Role-of-Derivatives-in-Carbon-Markets.pdf 6.IPCC. FAQ Chapter 1. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/faq/faq-chapter-1/ 7.The Board of IOSCO. (2022). Voluntary Carbon Markets Discussion Paper. OICV-IOSCO. https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD718.pdf 8.World Bank. (2023). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39796 三、網路資源 1.Bily, G. (December 19, 2023). The market impact of the new EU ETS compliance cycle. Carbon Pulse. https://carbon-pulse.com/219488/ 2.CDM. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Retrieved December 10, 2023, from https://cdm.unfccc.int/ 3.Global Emission Reduction (GER) Futures Contract Specification. Nodal Exchange. https://www.nodalexchange.com/wp-content/uploads/Global-Emission-Reduction-GER-Contract-Specification.pdf 4.L., J. (June 9, 2023). The Collapse of NGEO Carbon Prices: An In-Depth Analysis. Carbon Credits. https://carboncredits.com/the-collapse-of-ngeo-carbon-prices-an-in-depth-analysis/ 5.Navigating the Paris Rulebook. World Resources Institute. Retrieved December 9, 2023, from https://www.wri.org/paris-rulebook 6.Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. Taiwan: CO2 Country Profile. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/taiwan#what-share-of-global-co2-emissions-are-emitted-by-the-country 7.Spilker, G. (February 6, 2022). The Future(s) of Emissions Trading – COP26 and the Market for Voluntary Carbon Offsets. OpenMarkets, CME Group. https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/commodities/2022/The-Future-of-Emissions-Trading-COP26-and-the-Market-for-Voluntary-Carbon-Offsets.html 8.The Harris Poll. (April 13, 2023). Report: Executives Fear Greenwashing and the Economy Will Stall Sustainability Progress. Google Cloud. https://cloud.google.com/blog/transform/2023-google-cloud-sustainability-survey 9.The Voluntary Carbon Market Dashboard. CLIMATE FOCUS. Retrieved December 9, 2023, from https://climatefocus.com/initiatives/voluntary-carbon-market-dashboard/ 10.What Is the Kyoto Protocol?. UNFCCC. Retrieved December 9, 2023, from https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol 11.What Is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? UN Climate Change. Retrieved September 30, 2023, from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際金融碩士學位學程
111ZB1020
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111ZB1020
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林士貴<br>黃炳鈞zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Shih-Kuei<br>Huang, Bing-Jingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳彥惇zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Yen-Tunen_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳彥惇zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Yen-Tunen_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Feb-2024 11:31:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Feb-2024 11:31:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Feb-2024 11:31:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111ZB1020en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/149617-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際金融碩士學位學程zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 111ZB1020zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2021年舉辦的COP26，各締約國簽署格拉斯哥氣候協議（Glasgow Climate Pact），同意全球必須採取更積極作為，達成2050年淨零碳排，以守住升溫臨界值攝氏 1.5 度之目標。若要實現淨零碳排的目標，強制性市場工具（如各國政府實施的碳排放總量管制、碳費）及自願性市場工具（如碳信用抵換機制）皆扮演重要角色。碳信用抵換期貨市場近年發展快速，以CME所上市之GEO及N-GEO期貨最為成功；本研究發現，CME碳信用抵換期貨在不同到期日之契約間具有正價差之特性，且該特性不因價格走跌而消失；此外，未平倉量及交易需求主要皆集中在當年度12月份到期之契約，此現象應與歐、美碳排放配額市場之法遵期限有關。實證部分，本論文透過RNN機器學習模型－LSTM，進行GEO及N-GEO期貨價格之預測，發現除碳信用抵換商品外，加入碳排放配額資產（EUA期貨及RGGI期貨）及能源類資產（天然氣期貨及電力期貨）對GEO及N-GEO期貨價格皆有良好的預測效果。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In 2021, during the COP26 conference, participating countries signed the Glasgow Climate Pact. They agreed that global efforts must be more proactive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, aiming to keep the global temperature rise below the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve the goal of net-zero carbon emissions, both compliance market tools (such as cap-and-trade mechanism implemented by governments) and voluntary market tools (such as carbon credit offset) play important roles. In recent years, the carbon offset futures market has rapidly developed, with the GEO and N-GEO futures listed on the CME proving to be particularly successful. This study found that CME carbon offset futures exhibit contango between contracts with different expiration periods, and this characteristic persists even when prices decline. Furthermore, open interest and trading demand are primarily concentrated in contracts expiring in December of the current year, a phenomenon likely related to compliance deadlines in the European and American carbon emission markets. In the empirical part of the study, the paper uses the RNN machine learning model – LSTM to predict the prices of GEO and N-GEO futures. The findings indicate that, apart from carbon credit offset itself, adding carbon emission allowance assets (EUA & RGGI futures) and energy-related assets (Nature Gas & Electricity futures) can demonstrate good predictive capabilities for GEO and N-GEO futures prices.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機 2 第三節 研究目的 4 第四節 研究架構 5 第二章 文獻回顧 6 第一節 全球碳信用抵換現貨市場發展 6 一、京都議定書及清潔發展機制 6 二、巴黎協定 9 三、自願性碳信用抵換市場發展 10 第二節 碳信用抵換期貨功能及發展 13 一、碳信用抵換期貨市場之功能 13 二、全球碳信用抵換期貨市場主要監理機構及法令規章 15 三、全球碳信用抵換期貨商品發展 16 四、CME碳信用抵換期貨介紹 19 五、碳權商品價格之相關研究 25 第三章 實證方法及結果 27 第一節 實證方法 27 第二節 價格、相關性、波動度及未平倉量分析 28 一、價格分析 28 二、相關性分析 33 三、波動度分析 35 四、未平倉部位分析 38 第三節 特徵值選擇 41 第四節 資料訓練及測試期間 45 第五節 超參數設定 45 第六節 實證結果 48 一、GEO期貨價格之預測 48 二、N-GEO期貨價格之預測 52 三、小結 56 第四章 結論及建議 57 第一節 結論 57 第二節 研究建議 59 參考文獻 62zh_TW
dc.format.extent 3172941 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111ZB1020en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 碳權zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自願性碳權市場zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 碳信用抵換期貨zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 機器學習zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 長短記憶模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) voluntary carbon marketen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) carbon offset futuresen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) machine learningen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) LSTMen_US
dc.title (題名) 碳信用抵換期貨發展及交易之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Research on the Development and Trading of Carbon Offset Futuresen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、期刊文章、會議論文及研究報告 1.Batten, J. a., Maddox, G. e., & Young, M. r. (2021). Does Weather, or Energy Prices, Affect Carbon Prices? Energy Economics, Volume 9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105016 2.Benessaiah, K. (2021). Carbon and Livelihoods in Post-Kyoto: Assessing Voluntary Carbon Markets. Ecological Economics, Volume 77, Pages 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.022 3.Bose, A., Cohen, J., Fattouh, B., Johnson, O., & Spilker, G. (2021). Voluntary Markets for Carbon Offsets: Evolution and Lessons for the LNG Market. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Voluntary-markets-for-carbon-offsets-Evolution-features-and-lessons-for-the-LNG-market-ET03.pdf 4.Broekhof, D., Gillenwater, M., Colbert-sangree, T., & Cage, P. (2019). Securing Climate Benefit: A Guide to Using Carbon Offsets (劉仲恩、蔡香吾, 譯). Stockholm Environment Institute & Greenhouse Gas Management Institute. https://www.offsetguide.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Carbon-Offset-Guide_3122020.pdf 5.Byun, S. joon, & Cho, H. (2013). Forecasting Carbon Futures Volatility Using GARCH Models with Energy Volatilities. Energy Economics, Volume 40, Pages 207–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.017 6.Chevallier, J., Nguyen, D. K., & Reboredo, J. C. (2019). A Conditional Dependence Approach to CO2-Energy Price Relationships. Energy Economics, Volume 81, 812–821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.05.010 7.Coffman, D., & Lockley, A. (2017). Carbon Dioxide Removal and the Futures Market. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12(Number 1), 015003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa54e8 8.Fattouh, B., & Maino, A. (2022). Article 6 and Voluntary Carbon Markets. Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, Volume 114 https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/article-6-and-voluntary-carbon-markets/. 9.Ji, L., Zou, Y., He, K., & Zhu, B. (2019). Carbon Futures Price Forecasting Based with ARIMA-CNN-LSTM Model. Procedia Computer Science, Volume 162, Pages 33–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2019.11.254 10.Li, H., Huang, X., Zhou, D., Cao, A., Su, M., Wang, Y., & Guo, L. (2022). Forecasting Carbon Price in China: A Multimodel Comparison. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Volume 19(10), 6217. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106217 11.Luo, X., Yu, R., Guo, Y., Jia, H., & Liu, D. (2022). Carbon Price Prediction of LSTM Method Based on Attention Mechanism. 2022 4th International Conference on Smart Power & Internet Energy Systems (SPIES). https://doi.org/10.1109/SPIES55999.2022.10082179 12.Palao, F., & Pardo, Á. (2021). The Inconvenience Yield of Carbon Futures. Energy Economics, Volume 101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105461 13.Spilker, G., & Nugent, N. (2022). Voluntary Carbon Market Derivatives: Growth, Innovation & Usage. Borsa Istanbul Review, Volume 22, Supplement 2, Pages S109–S118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.11.008 14.Tan, X., & Wang, X. (2017). Dependence Changes between the Carbon Price and Its Fundamentals: A Quantile Regression Approach. Applied Energy, Volume 190(issue C), 306–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.116 15.Trück, S., Weron, R. (2016). Convenience Yields and Risk Premiums in the EU-ETS - Evidence from the Kyoto Commitment Period. The Journal of Futures Markets, Volume 36(6), 587–611. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2889860 16.Zhou, F., Huang, Z., & Zhang, C. (2022). Carbon Price Forecasting Based on CEEMDAN and LSTM. Applied Energy, Volume 311, 118601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118601 17.郭博堯. (2022). 聯合國碳交易市場之建構與展望. 於中技社通訊, 141(春季刊), 17–19. https://www.ctci.org.tw/ebook/CTCI_quarterly_141/141Spring.html 二、官方文件及報告書 1.Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (2023). Release Number 8829-23: CFTC Issues Proposed Guidance Regarding the Listing of Voluntary Carbon Credit Derivative Contracts. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8829-23 2.European Commission. (2021). Use of international credits https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets/use-international-credits_en 3.European Securities and Markets Authority. (2022). Final Report: Emission Allowances and Associated Derivatives. https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/esma70-445-38_final_report_on_emission_allowances_and_associated_derivatives.pdf 4.International Swaps and Derivatives Association. (2021). Legal Implications of Voluntary Carbon Credits. https://www.isda.org/a/38ngE/Legal-Implications-of-Voluntary-Carbon-Credits.pdf 5.International Swaps and Derivatives Association. (2021). Role of Derivatives in Carbon Markets. https://www.isda.org/a/soigE/Role-of-Derivatives-in-Carbon-Markets.pdf 6.IPCC. FAQ Chapter 1. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/faq/faq-chapter-1/ 7.The Board of IOSCO. (2022). Voluntary Carbon Markets Discussion Paper. OICV-IOSCO. https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD718.pdf 8.World Bank. (2023). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39796 三、網路資源 1.Bily, G. (December 19, 2023). The market impact of the new EU ETS compliance cycle. Carbon Pulse. https://carbon-pulse.com/219488/ 2.CDM. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Retrieved December 10, 2023, from https://cdm.unfccc.int/ 3.Global Emission Reduction (GER) Futures Contract Specification. Nodal Exchange. https://www.nodalexchange.com/wp-content/uploads/Global-Emission-Reduction-GER-Contract-Specification.pdf 4.L., J. (June 9, 2023). The Collapse of NGEO Carbon Prices: An In-Depth Analysis. Carbon Credits. https://carboncredits.com/the-collapse-of-ngeo-carbon-prices-an-in-depth-analysis/ 5.Navigating the Paris Rulebook. World Resources Institute. Retrieved December 9, 2023, from https://www.wri.org/paris-rulebook 6.Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. Taiwan: CO2 Country Profile. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/taiwan#what-share-of-global-co2-emissions-are-emitted-by-the-country 7.Spilker, G. (February 6, 2022). The Future(s) of Emissions Trading – COP26 and the Market for Voluntary Carbon Offsets. OpenMarkets, CME Group. https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/commodities/2022/The-Future-of-Emissions-Trading-COP26-and-the-Market-for-Voluntary-Carbon-Offsets.html 8.The Harris Poll. (April 13, 2023). 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