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題名 台灣外交政策動力的演變
The Evolving Impetus for Taiwan's Foreign Policy
作者 馮石濤
Finestone, Isaac
貢獻者 冷則剛
Leng Tse-Kang
馮石濤
Isaac Finestone
關鍵詞 小國外交政策
政策決策機構
台灣國際關係
small-state foreign policy
policy decision-making
Taiwan international relations
日期 2024
上傳時間 1-Feb-2024 11:43:36 (UTC+8)
摘要 本論文採用新古典現實主義(neoclassical realist)的框架來探索影響台灣外交政策及其決策的因素。本文聚焦於蔡英文政府和民主進步黨（DPP）對外政策的取向，並探索政策遺產與先前政府有所不同的原因。在方法上，本論文透過政府聲明的彙整及與了解DPP內部情況的政府官員和學者進行的訪談，以了解影響政府決策的動態。訪談顯示，政治精英的凝聚力是影響政策選擇最重要的因素，但國際環境跟國內政治結構的變化也有影響到了政府所能採取的選擇；同時，政府決定加強與美國和其他國際夥伴的關係反映出對中國威脅的有意識回應，以及台灣公眾觀點的轉變。本論文突顯了小國外交政策中結構性和單元層面因素之間的相互作用。
This study adopts a neoclassical realist framework to investigate the factors influencing Taiwan’s foreign policy and its decision-making. This study focuses on the Tsai Ing-wen administration and the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) approach to foreign policy and why its legacy has differed from previous administrations. Statements from the administration were gathered and semi-structured interviews were conducted with government officials and scholars with inside knowledge of the DPP to understand the dynamics affecting the administration’s decision-making. The interviews revealed that elite cohesion within the administration is the most consequential factor for policy choices, but structural changes in the international environment and domestic politics have heavily influenced the options available to this elite group. The decision by the administration to pursue stronger ties with the United States and other international partners reflects a conscious response to the China threat and a shift in Taiwan’s public opinion. This case study highlights the interaction between structural and unit-level factors in small-state foreign policy.
參考文獻 Altheide, David L. "Process of Qualitative Document Analysis." In Qualitative Media Analysis, 23–45. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1996. Bush, Richard C. "US Policy toward Taiwan." Asian Education and Development Studies 5, no. 3 (2016): 266–77. https://doi.org/10.1108/aeds-10-2015-0052. Cabestan, Jean-Pierre. "Taiwan’s Political Development and U.S.-China Relations." In The Future of United States, China, and Taiwan Relations, 13–28, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230118966_2. Chen, Ping-Kuei. "Taiwan’s ‘People-Centered’ New Southbound Policy and Its Impact on US–Taiwan Relations." The Pacific Review 33, no. 5 (2019): 813–41. https:/ean Politics 35, no. 1 (2019): 21–51. https://doi.org/10.10/doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2019.1594349. Chu, Yun-han, and Jih-wen Lin. “Political Development in 20th-Century Taiwan: State-Building, Regime Transformation and the Construction of National Identity.” The China Quarterly 165 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1017/s0009443901000067. Copper, John F. “Taiwan’s Failed President.” Asian Affairs 34, no. 4 (2008): 179–92. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30172672. Cooper, William, and Emma Chanlett-Avery. "Sino-Japanese Relations: Issues for U.S. Policy." Internet Archive. Defense Technical Information Center, December 19, 2008. https://archive.org/details/DTIC_ADA492927. Department of European Affairs, MOFA. “MOFA Response to Mention of Taiwan in UK’s Integrated Review Refresh 2023 Published on March 13.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan), March 14, 2023. https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1328&s=99875. Devlin, Kat, and Christine Huang. “In Taiwan, Views of Mainland China Mostly Negative.” Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, May 12, 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/. Gilpin, Robert. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1981. Glaser, Bonnie S., Matthew P. Funaiole, and Hunter Marston. Charting Convergence: Exploring the Intersection of the U.S. Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy... and Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2020. Gold, Hyam. "Foreign Policy Decision-Making and the Environment: The Claims of Snyder, Brecher, and the Sprouts." International Studies Quarterly 22, no. 4 (1978): 569-586. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600167. Gold, Thomas. “From ‘State and Society’ to ‘Society and State’.” Lecture, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan, January 5, 2024. Gvalia, Giorgi, Bidzina Lebanidze, and David S. Siroky. “Neoclassical Realism and Small States: Systemic Constraints and Domestic Filters in Georgia’s Foreign Policy.” East Europ80/21599165.2019.1581066. Hale, Erin. “Lithuania Deepens Relations With Taiwan Amid China Tensions.” Voice of America, September 13, 2022. https://www.voanews.com/a/lithuania-deepens-relations-with-taiwan-amid-china-tensions-/6745292.html. Hickey, Dennis. Foreign Policy Making in Taiwan: From Principle to Pragmatism. London, United Kingdom: Routledge, 2013. Hu, Shaohua. "A Framework for Analysis of National Interest: United States Policy toward Taiwan." Contemporary Security Policy 37, no. 1 (2016): 144–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2016.1149970. Jain, Romi. "Taiwan Conundrum in US-China Relations." India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 63, no. 3 (2007): 168–87. https://doi.org/10.1177/097492840706300307. Kitchen, Nicholas. “Systemic Pressures and Domestic Ideas: A Neoclassical Realist Model of Grand Strategy Formation.” Review of International Studies 36, no. 1 (2010): 117–43. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0260210509990532. Knowlton, Brian. “Bush Warns Taiwan to Keep Status Quo: China Welcomes U.S. Stance.” The New York Times, December 10, 2003. https://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/10/news/bush-warns-taiwan-to-keep-status-quo-china-welcomes-us-stance.html. Lawrence, Susan V., and Wayne M. Morrison. "Taiwan: Issues for Congress." Congressional Research Service, 2017. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R44996.pdf. Lin, Gang, Wenxing Zhou, and Weixu Wu. "What Shapes Taiwan-Related Legislation in U.S. Congress?" Journal of Contemporary China 31, no. 136 (2021): 609–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2021.1985840. Mallett, Ellis, and Thomas Juneau. “A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Overbalancing.” Global Studies Quarterly 3, no. 2 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/isagsq/ksad023. McConnell, Fiona, Terri Moreau, and Jason Dittmer. "Mimicking State Diplomacy: The Legitimizing Strategies of Unofficial Diplomacies." Geoforum 43, no. 4 (June 2012): 804–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2012.01.007. Saltzman, Ilai Z. “Growing Pains: Neoclassical Realism and Japan’s Security Policy Emancipation.” Contemporary Security Policy 36, no. 3 (2015): 498–527. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2015.1091574. Schiff, Amira. "‘Quasi Track-One’ Diplomacy: An Analysis of the Geneva Process in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict1." International Studies Perspectives 11, no. 2 (May 2010): 93–111. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3585.2010.00396.x. Schweller, Randall L. “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing.” International Security 29, no. 2 (2004): 159–201. https://doi.org/10.1162/0162288042879913. Shih, Gerry, and Lily Kuo. “Trump Upsets Decades of U.S. Policy on Taiwan, Leaving Thorny Questions for Biden.” The Washington Post, January 13, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/trump-biden-taiwan-china/2021/01/13/1bbadee0-53c0-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html. Silver, Laura, Christine Huang, and Laura Clancy. “How Global Public Opinion of China Has Shifted in the Xi Era.” Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, September 28, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/09/28/how-global-public-opinion-of-china-has-shifted-in-the-xi-era/. Silver, Laura. “Americans Are Critical of China’s Global Role – as Well as Its Relationship with Russia.” Global Attitudes Project, April 12, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/04/12/americans-are-critical-of-chinas-global-role-as-well-as-its-relationship-with-russia/. Snyder, Jack. Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. Cornell University Press, 1994. Sutter, Karen M. "U.S.-Taiwan Trade Relations." Congressional Research Service, 2022. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10256. Thorhallsson, Baldur and Sverrir Steinsson. “Small State Foreign Policy.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, 2017. doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.484 Tirpak, John A. “Navy Intel Brief Urges Robust Challenge to China.” Air and Space Forces Magazine, July 6, 2023. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/intel-challenge-china/. Wu, Charles K.S. “HOW PUBLIC OPINION SHAPES TAIWAN'S SUNFLOWER MOVEMENT.” Journal of East Asian Studies 19, no. 3 (2019): 289–307. doi:10.1017/jea.2019.30. Yao-yuan Yeh, Charles Wu, Austin Wang, and Fang-yu Chen. “How Does the Public Perceive Diplomatic Isolation of Taiwan?” East Asia Forum, August 22, 2020.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
110926038
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110926038
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 冷則剛zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Leng Tse-Kangen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 馮石濤zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Isaac Finestoneen_US
dc.creator (作者) 馮石濤zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Finestone, Isaacen_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Feb-2024 11:43:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Feb-2024 11:43:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Feb-2024 11:43:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110926038en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/149657-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 110926038zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文採用新古典現實主義(neoclassical realist)的框架來探索影響台灣外交政策及其決策的因素。本文聚焦於蔡英文政府和民主進步黨（DPP）對外政策的取向，並探索政策遺產與先前政府有所不同的原因。在方法上，本論文透過政府聲明的彙整及與了解DPP內部情況的政府官員和學者進行的訪談，以了解影響政府決策的動態。訪談顯示，政治精英的凝聚力是影響政策選擇最重要的因素，但國際環境跟國內政治結構的變化也有影響到了政府所能採取的選擇；同時，政府決定加強與美國和其他國際夥伴的關係反映出對中國威脅的有意識回應，以及台灣公眾觀點的轉變。本論文突顯了小國外交政策中結構性和單元層面因素之間的相互作用。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study adopts a neoclassical realist framework to investigate the factors influencing Taiwan’s foreign policy and its decision-making. This study focuses on the Tsai Ing-wen administration and the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) approach to foreign policy and why its legacy has differed from previous administrations. Statements from the administration were gathered and semi-structured interviews were conducted with government officials and scholars with inside knowledge of the DPP to understand the dynamics affecting the administration’s decision-making. The interviews revealed that elite cohesion within the administration is the most consequential factor for policy choices, but structural changes in the international environment and domestic politics have heavily influenced the options available to this elite group. The decision by the administration to pursue stronger ties with the United States and other international partners reflects a conscious response to the China threat and a shift in Taiwan’s public opinion. This case study highlights the interaction between structural and unit-level factors in small-state foreign policy.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Purpose of Research 1 1.2 Research Questions 2 2 Literature Review 3 2.1 The State of Taiwan’s Foreign Policy and US-Taiwan Relations 3 2.2 Potential Explanations for Foreign Policy Decisions 7 2.3 The Neoclassical Realist Approach 12 3 Framework and Methods 15 3.1 Theoretical Framework 15 3.2 Research Methods 18 4 Historical Background of Taiwan’s Foreign Policy 20 4.1 Taiwan’s Foreign Policy Since 1949 20 4.2 The Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party 25 4.3 Domestic Constraints in Taiwan’s Politics 27 4.4 Democracy and New Constraints on Taiwan’s Foreign Policymaking 29 5 Forming a Contextualized Analysis of Tsai’s Foreign Policy 31 5.1 The Perceived China Threat 34 5.2 A Changing International Environment 37 5.2.1 A New Era for US-Taiwan Relations 38 5.2.2 A New Wave of Support From the International Community 43 5.3 The Evolving Domestic Political Situation 45 5.4 A New Consensus Amongst Party Elites 48 6 Conclusion 53 7 References and Appendices 55zh_TW
dc.format.extent 980795 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110926038en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 小國外交政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 政策決策機構zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台灣國際關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) small-state foreign policyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) policy decision-makingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwan international relationsen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣外交政策動力的演變zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Evolving Impetus for Taiwan's Foreign Policyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Altheide, David L. "Process of Qualitative Document Analysis." In Qualitative Media Analysis, 23–45. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1996. Bush, Richard C. "US Policy toward Taiwan." Asian Education and Development Studies 5, no. 3 (2016): 266–77. https://doi.org/10.1108/aeds-10-2015-0052. Cabestan, Jean-Pierre. "Taiwan’s Political Development and U.S.-China Relations." In The Future of United States, China, and Taiwan Relations, 13–28, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230118966_2. Chen, Ping-Kuei. "Taiwan’s ‘People-Centered’ New Southbound Policy and Its Impact on US–Taiwan Relations." The Pacific Review 33, no. 5 (2019): 813–41. https:/ean Politics 35, no. 1 (2019): 21–51. https://doi.org/10.10/doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2019.1594349. Chu, Yun-han, and Jih-wen Lin. “Political Development in 20th-Century Taiwan: State-Building, Regime Transformation and the Construction of National Identity.” The China Quarterly 165 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1017/s0009443901000067. Copper, John F. “Taiwan’s Failed President.” Asian Affairs 34, no. 4 (2008): 179–92. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30172672. Cooper, William, and Emma Chanlett-Avery. "Sino-Japanese Relations: Issues for U.S. Policy." Internet Archive. Defense Technical Information Center, December 19, 2008. https://archive.org/details/DTIC_ADA492927. Department of European Affairs, MOFA. “MOFA Response to Mention of Taiwan in UK’s Integrated Review Refresh 2023 Published on March 13.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan), March 14, 2023. https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1328&s=99875. Devlin, Kat, and Christine Huang. “In Taiwan, Views of Mainland China Mostly Negative.” Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, May 12, 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/12/in-taiwan-views-of-mainland-china-mostly-negative/. Gilpin, Robert. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1981. Glaser, Bonnie S., Matthew P. Funaiole, and Hunter Marston. Charting Convergence: Exploring the Intersection of the U.S. Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy... and Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2020. Gold, Hyam. "Foreign Policy Decision-Making and the Environment: The Claims of Snyder, Brecher, and the Sprouts." International Studies Quarterly 22, no. 4 (1978): 569-586. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600167. Gold, Thomas. “From ‘State and Society’ to ‘Society and State’.” Lecture, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan, January 5, 2024. Gvalia, Giorgi, Bidzina Lebanidze, and David S. Siroky. “Neoclassical Realism and Small States: Systemic Constraints and Domestic Filters in Georgia’s Foreign Policy.” East Europ80/21599165.2019.1581066. Hale, Erin. “Lithuania Deepens Relations With Taiwan Amid China Tensions.” Voice of America, September 13, 2022. https://www.voanews.com/a/lithuania-deepens-relations-with-taiwan-amid-china-tensions-/6745292.html. Hickey, Dennis. Foreign Policy Making in Taiwan: From Principle to Pragmatism. London, United Kingdom: Routledge, 2013. Hu, Shaohua. "A Framework for Analysis of National Interest: United States Policy toward Taiwan." Contemporary Security Policy 37, no. 1 (2016): 144–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2016.1149970. Jain, Romi. "Taiwan Conundrum in US-China Relations." India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 63, no. 3 (2007): 168–87. https://doi.org/10.1177/097492840706300307. Kitchen, Nicholas. “Systemic Pressures and Domestic Ideas: A Neoclassical Realist Model of Grand Strategy Formation.” Review of International Studies 36, no. 1 (2010): 117–43. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0260210509990532. Knowlton, Brian. “Bush Warns Taiwan to Keep Status Quo: China Welcomes U.S. Stance.” The New York Times, December 10, 2003. https://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/10/news/bush-warns-taiwan-to-keep-status-quo-china-welcomes-us-stance.html. Lawrence, Susan V., and Wayne M. Morrison. "Taiwan: Issues for Congress." Congressional Research Service, 2017. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R44996.pdf. Lin, Gang, Wenxing Zhou, and Weixu Wu. "What Shapes Taiwan-Related Legislation in U.S. Congress?" Journal of Contemporary China 31, no. 136 (2021): 609–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2021.1985840. Mallett, Ellis, and Thomas Juneau. “A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Overbalancing.” Global Studies Quarterly 3, no. 2 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1093/isagsq/ksad023. McConnell, Fiona, Terri Moreau, and Jason Dittmer. "Mimicking State Diplomacy: The Legitimizing Strategies of Unofficial Diplomacies." Geoforum 43, no. 4 (June 2012): 804–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2012.01.007. Saltzman, Ilai Z. “Growing Pains: Neoclassical Realism and Japan’s Security Policy Emancipation.” Contemporary Security Policy 36, no. 3 (2015): 498–527. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2015.1091574. Schiff, Amira. "‘Quasi Track-One’ Diplomacy: An Analysis of the Geneva Process in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict1." International Studies Perspectives 11, no. 2 (May 2010): 93–111. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3585.2010.00396.x. Schweller, Randall L. “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing.” International Security 29, no. 2 (2004): 159–201. https://doi.org/10.1162/0162288042879913. Shih, Gerry, and Lily Kuo. “Trump Upsets Decades of U.S. Policy on Taiwan, Leaving Thorny Questions for Biden.” The Washington Post, January 13, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/trump-biden-taiwan-china/2021/01/13/1bbadee0-53c0-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html. Silver, Laura, Christine Huang, and Laura Clancy. “How Global Public Opinion of China Has Shifted in the Xi Era.” Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, September 28, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/09/28/how-global-public-opinion-of-china-has-shifted-in-the-xi-era/. Silver, Laura. “Americans Are Critical of China’s Global Role – as Well as Its Relationship with Russia.” Global Attitudes Project, April 12, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/04/12/americans-are-critical-of-chinas-global-role-as-well-as-its-relationship-with-russia/. Snyder, Jack. Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. Cornell University Press, 1994. Sutter, Karen M. "U.S.-Taiwan Trade Relations." Congressional Research Service, 2022. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10256. Thorhallsson, Baldur and Sverrir Steinsson. “Small State Foreign Policy.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, 2017. doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.484 Tirpak, John A. “Navy Intel Brief Urges Robust Challenge to China.” Air and Space Forces Magazine, July 6, 2023. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/intel-challenge-china/. Wu, Charles K.S. “HOW PUBLIC OPINION SHAPES TAIWAN'S SUNFLOWER MOVEMENT.” Journal of East Asian Studies 19, no. 3 (2019): 289–307. doi:10.1017/jea.2019.30. Yao-yuan Yeh, Charles Wu, Austin Wang, and Fang-yu Chen. “How Does the Public Perceive Diplomatic Isolation of Taiwan?” East Asia Forum, August 22, 2020.zh_TW