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題名 Extrapolation and option-implied kurtosis in volatility forecasting
作者 許永明
Shiu, Yung-Ming;Pan, Ging-Ginq;Wu, Tu-Cheng
貢獻者 風管系
關鍵詞 Extrapolation; Risk-neutral skewness; Risk-neutral kurtosis; Volatility forecasting
日期 2024-04
上傳時間 24-May-2024 11:00:23 (UTC+8)
摘要 Prior studies have employed extrapolation to reduce truncation errors when computing risk-neutral moments. However, extrapolation may have a disadvantage in that it obscures the predictive power of risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis. Our out-of-sample results show that extrapolation does not enhance the predictive power of the volatility forecasting models when risk-neutral volatility, skewness, and kurtosis are included. Under this model specification, extrapolation generates less accurate forecasts and obscures the performance of risk-neutral kurtosis in volatility forecasting.
關聯 Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.84, 102286
資料類型 article
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102286
dc.contributor 風管系
dc.creator (作者) 許永明
dc.creator (作者) Shiu, Yung-Ming;Pan, Ging-Ginq;Wu, Tu-Cheng
dc.date (日期) 2024-04
dc.date.accessioned 24-May-2024 11:00:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 24-May-2024 11:00:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 24-May-2024 11:00:23 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/151233-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Prior studies have employed extrapolation to reduce truncation errors when computing risk-neutral moments. However, extrapolation may have a disadvantage in that it obscures the predictive power of risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis. Our out-of-sample results show that extrapolation does not enhance the predictive power of the volatility forecasting models when risk-neutral volatility, skewness, and kurtosis are included. Under this model specification, extrapolation generates less accurate forecasts and obscures the performance of risk-neutral kurtosis in volatility forecasting.
dc.format.extent 108 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype text/html-
dc.relation (關聯) Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol.84, 102286
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Extrapolation; Risk-neutral skewness; Risk-neutral kurtosis; Volatility forecasting
dc.title (題名) Extrapolation and option-implied kurtosis in volatility forecasting
dc.type (資料類型) article
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102286
dc.doi.uri (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102286