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題名 地方選舉對房市的影響 基於斷點迴歸的分析
The Impact of Local Elections on the Housing Market - An Analysis Based on Regression Discontinuity作者 何書涵
Ho, Shu-Han貢獻者 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
何書涵
Ho, Shu-Han關鍵詞 地方選舉
房市
斷點迴歸
景氣循環
不確定性
Mayoral Election
Housing Market
Regression Discontinuity Design
Business Cycle
Uncertainty日期 2024 上傳時間 1-Jul-2024 12:39:12 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究透過斷點設計迴歸(RDD)分析法，探討了2022年台灣地方縣市首長選舉對房地產價格的影響。研究聚焦於投機性政治景氣循環理論和選舉不確定性對房價的影響，在投機性政治景氣循環理論的作用下，選舉不確定性較低的地區(如新北市、台中市及高雄市)將會在選舉後呈現房價下降趨勢；相對地，選舉不確定性較高的地區(如台北市、桃園市及台南市)則可能因不確定資訊假說的影響下，顯示出房價的上升趨勢。實證分析結果顯示，選舉不確定性較低的地區在選舉後確實出現房價下降，尤其是高雄市的數據在統計上具有顯著性，表明選舉前的擴張性財政及房市利多政策可能在選後被緊縮政策取代，導致房價下降。而在選舉不確定性較高的地區，房價的上升趨勢與市場對選舉結果的反應一致，顯示不確定性的消散可能活絡了市場活動，進而推動房價上漲。本研究的發現不僅深刻了我們對政治經濟影響房地產市場的了解，也為政策制定者提供了關於選舉影響經濟行為的實證證據。
This study employs Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to examine the impact of the 2022 local mayoral elections in Taiwan on real estate prices. The research focuses on the effects of speculative political business cycle theories and election uncertainty on housing prices. It predicts that in areas with low election uncertainty (such as New Taipei City, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City), housing prices are expected to decline post-election under the influence of speculative political business cycles; conversely, in areas with high election uncertainty (such as Taipei City, Taoyuan City, and Tainan City), housing prices may show an upward trend or an insignificant decline due to the dual impact of political business cycles and the uncertainty information hypothesis. Empirical analysis shows that in areas with low election uncertainty, there is indeed a decline in housing prices post-election, especially in Kaohsiung City, where the data is statistically significant. This suggests that pre-election expansionary fiscal and favorable housing policies may be replaced by contractionary policies post-election, leading to a decrease in housing prices. In areas with high election uncertainty, the rising trend in housing prices aligns with market reactions to the election results, indicating that the dissipation of uncertainty may have stimulated market activities, thereby driving up housing prices. The findings of this study not only deepen our understanding of the political-economic impact on the real estate market but also provide empirical evidence for policymakers about the economic behavior influenced by elections.參考文獻 英文參考文獻 Abdulai, R. T., & Owusu-Ansah, A. (2011). House price determinants in Liverpool, United Kingdom. Current Politics and Economics of Europe, 22(1), 1-26. Agarwal, S., Chen, Y., Li, J., & Tan, Y. J. (2021). Hedonic price of housing space. Real Estate Economics, 49(2), 574-609. Alt, J. E., & Lowry, R. C. (1994). Divided government, fiscal institutions, and budget deficits: Evidence from the states. American Political Science Review, 88(4), 811-828. Boone, A. L., & White, J. T. (2015). The effect of institutional ownership on firm transparency and information production. Journal of financial economics, 117(3), 508-533. Brown, K. C., Harlow, W. V., & Tinic, S. M. (1988). Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency. Journal of financial economics, 22(2), 355-385. Butler, M. R., & McNertney, E. M. (1991). Election returns as a signal of changing regulatory climate. Energy economics, 13(1), 48-54. Canes-Wrone, B., & Park, J.-K. (2014). Elections, uncertainty and irreversible investment. British Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 83-106. Case, A. (1994). Taxes and the electoral cycle: How sensitive are governors to coming elections. Business review(Mar), 17-26. Cattaneo, M. D., Idrobo, N., & Titiunik, R. (2019). A practical introduction to regression discontinuity designs: Foundations. Cambridge University Press. Cellini, S. R., Ferreira, F., & Rothstein, J. (2010). The value of school facility investments: Evidence from a dynamic regression discontinuity design. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(1), 215-261. Chen, W. Y., & JIM, C. Y. (2010). Amenities and disamenities: A hedonic analysis of the heterogeneous urban landscape in Shenzhen (China). Geographical Journal, 176(3), 227-240. Chen, Y., Shi, S., & Tang, Y. (2019). Valuing the urban hukou in China: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design for housing prices. Journal of Development Economics, 141, 102381. Choi, C.-Y. (2023). State political uncertainty and local housing markets-Evidence from US mid-term gubernatorial elections. Applied Economics, 55(57), 6717-6738. Crane, A. D., Michenaud, S., & Weston, J. P. (2016). The effect of institutional ownership on payout policy: Evidence from index thresholds. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(6), 1377-1408. Cusack, T. R. (1997). Partisan politics and public finance: Changes in public spending in the industrialized democracies, 1955–1989. Public Choice, 91(3), 375-395. De Blasio, G., De Mitri, S., D'Ignazio, A., Russo, P. F., & Stoppani, L. (2018). Public guarantees to SME borrowing. A RDD evaluation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 96, 73-86. De Genaro, A., Salvador, P. I. C. A., & Fernandes, I. F. (2021). Market power and banking regulations: Evidence from RDD application to the Brazilian banking market. Economics Letters, 202, 109821. Fürstenau, E., Gohl, N., Haan, P., & Weinhardt, F. (2023). Working life and human capital investment: Causal evidence from a pension reform. Labour Economics, 84, 102426. Gao, G., Li, X., Liu, X., & Dong, J. (2021). Does air pollution impact fiscal sustainability? Evidence from Chinese cities. Energies, 14(21), 7247. Goodell, J. W., & Vähämaa, S. (2013). US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(3), 1108-1117. Goodman, A. C., & Thibodeau, T. G. (1997). Dwelling-age-related heteroskedasticity in hedonic house price equations: An extension. Journal of Housing Research, 299-317. Higgins, D., & Reddy, W. (2010). The impact of political risk on Australian house prices. Australia and New Zealand Property Journal, 2(7), 413. Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. The journal of Finance, 67(1), 45-83. Kapur, D., & Vaishnav, M. (2013). Quid pro quo: Builders, politicians, and election finance in India. Center for Global Development Working Paper(276). Khan, M., Srinivasan, S., & Tan, L. (2017). Institutional ownership and corporate tax avoidance: New evidence. The Accounting Review, 92(2), 101-122. Kiel, K. A., & Zabel, J. E. (1996). House price differentials in US cities: Household and neighborhood racial effects. Journal of Housing Economics, 5(2), 143-165. Kong, D., Cheng, Y., & Liu, S. (2021). Unexpected housing wealth appreciation and stock market participation. Journal of Housing Economics, 52, 101768. Li, J., & Born, J. A. (2006). Presidential election uncertainty and common stock returns in the United States. Journal of Financial Research, 29(4), 609-622. Liu, L. C.-H. (2021). The housing business cycle of local public finance: empirical evidence from Taiwan. Journal of Asian Public Policy, 14(3), 375-390. Mattozzi, A. (2008). Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the US stock market. Public Choice, 137, 43-55. Miles, W. (2014). The housing bubble: how much blame does the fed really deserve? Journal of Real Estate Research, 36(1), 41-58. Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The political business cycle. The review of economic studies, 42(2), 169-190. Poterba, J. M. (1994). State responses to fiscal crises: The effects of budgetary institutions and politics. Journal of political Economy, 102(4), 799-821. Reid, B. G. (1998). Endogenous elections, electoral budget cycles and Canadian provincial governments. Public Choice, 97, 35-48. Selim, S. (2008). Determinants of house prices in Turkey: A hedonic regression model. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 9(1), 65-76. Shang, H., Fan, J., Fan, B., & Su, F. (2022). Economic effects of ecological compensation policy in Shiyang River Basin: Empirical research based on DID and RDD models. Sustainability, 14(5), 2999. Shang, H., Kou, Y., Su, F., Song, N., & Mao, S. (2021). The Policy Effect, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Spillover Effect of Land System Pilots. Sustainability, 13(21), 11818. Sirmans, S., Macpherson, D., & Zietz, E. (2005). The composition of hedonic pricing models. Journal of real estate literature, 13(1), 1-44. Sun, W., Zheng, S., Geltner, D. M., & Wang, R. (2017). The housing market effects of local home purchase restrictions: Evidence from Beijing. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 55, 288-312. Thistlethwaite, D. L., & Campbell, D. T. (1960). Regression-discontinuity analysis: An alternative to the ex post facto experiment. Journal of Educational psychology, 51(6), 309. Wilhelmsson, M. (2008). House price depreciation rates and level of maintenance. Journal of Housing Economics, 17(1), 88-101. Yinger, J. (1977). Prejudice and Discrimination in the Urban Housing Market. Discussion Paper D77-9. 中文參考文獻 俞振華. (2012). 探討總統施政評價如何影響地方選舉─ 以 2009 年縣市長選舉為例. 選舉研究, 19(1), 69-95. 胡志平. (2005). 新竹科學園區設置之環境風險認知分析與價值評估. 建築與規劃學報, 6(1), 63-80. 張慈佳. (2001). 政治景氣循環現象對房地產價格影響之研究. 台北: 國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文. 郭振雄, 何怡澄, & 林咸劭. (2020). 斷點迴歸方法論之法人持股與企業租稅規避. 經濟論文, 48(1), 105-149. 陳怡諠, 卓翠月, & 白詩婷. (2017). 總統選舉事件對股市之影響. 選舉研究, 24(1), 33-60. 傅彥凱. (2006). 地方政府預算制定之政治經濟分析: 政治預算循環的觀點. 選舉研究, 13(1), 119-162. 彭建文, 張金鶚, & 林恩從. (1998). 房地產景氣對生產時間落差之影響. In: 經濟論文叢刊. 黃紀, 林長志, & 王宏忠. (2013). 三合一選舉中之一致與分裂投票: 以 2010 年高雄市選舉為例. 選舉研究, 20(1), 1-45. 黃智聰, & 程小綾. (2005). 經濟投票與政黨輪替-以台灣縣市長選舉為例. 選舉研究, 12(2), 45-78. 蔡昕俞. (2013). 台灣總統大選與經濟成長的政治景氣循環—1996-2012. 臺灣民主季刊, 10(1), 36-69. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
111357009資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357009 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳明吉 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Ming-Chi en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 何書涵 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ho, Shu-Han en_US dc.creator (作者) 何書涵 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Ho, Shu-Han en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2024 12:39:12 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Jul-2024 12:39:12 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2024 12:39:12 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111357009 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152064 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財務管理學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111357009 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究透過斷點設計迴歸(RDD)分析法，探討了2022年台灣地方縣市首長選舉對房地產價格的影響。研究聚焦於投機性政治景氣循環理論和選舉不確定性對房價的影響，在投機性政治景氣循環理論的作用下，選舉不確定性較低的地區(如新北市、台中市及高雄市)將會在選舉後呈現房價下降趨勢；相對地，選舉不確定性較高的地區(如台北市、桃園市及台南市)則可能因不確定資訊假說的影響下，顯示出房價的上升趨勢。實證分析結果顯示，選舉不確定性較低的地區在選舉後確實出現房價下降，尤其是高雄市的數據在統計上具有顯著性，表明選舉前的擴張性財政及房市利多政策可能在選後被緊縮政策取代，導致房價下降。而在選舉不確定性較高的地區，房價的上升趨勢與市場對選舉結果的反應一致，顯示不確定性的消散可能活絡了市場活動，進而推動房價上漲。本研究的發現不僅深刻了我們對政治經濟影響房地產市場的了解，也為政策制定者提供了關於選舉影響經濟行為的實證證據。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study employs Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to examine the impact of the 2022 local mayoral elections in Taiwan on real estate prices. The research focuses on the effects of speculative political business cycle theories and election uncertainty on housing prices. It predicts that in areas with low election uncertainty (such as New Taipei City, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City), housing prices are expected to decline post-election under the influence of speculative political business cycles; conversely, in areas with high election uncertainty (such as Taipei City, Taoyuan City, and Tainan City), housing prices may show an upward trend or an insignificant decline due to the dual impact of political business cycles and the uncertainty information hypothesis. Empirical analysis shows that in areas with low election uncertainty, there is indeed a decline in housing prices post-election, especially in Kaohsiung City, where the data is statistically significant. This suggests that pre-election expansionary fiscal and favorable housing policies may be replaced by contractionary policies post-election, leading to a decrease in housing prices. In areas with high election uncertainty, the rising trend in housing prices aligns with market reactions to the election results, indicating that the dissipation of uncertainty may have stimulated market activities, thereby driving up housing prices. The findings of this study not only deepen our understanding of the political-economic impact on the real estate market but also provide empirical evidence for policymakers about the economic behavior influenced by elections. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的與問題 3 第三節 研究架構與流程 5 第二章 文獻回顧 6 第一節 政策景氣循環理論 6 第二節 不確定資訊假說 9 第三節 斷點迴歸設計(RDD)分析法於資本市場之應用 11 第四節 台灣地方選舉回顧 13 第三章 研究方法及設計 15 第一節 建立假說 15 第二節 斷點迴歸設計(RDD)分析法 17 第三節 實證模型 20 第四節 研究期間與變數選取說明 22 第四章 實證結果 25 第一節 樣本資料之統計分析及選舉不確定性地區分群 25 第二節 政策景氣循環理論實證結果 30 第三節 不確定資訊假說實證結果 35 第四節 RDD模型設定及穩定性測試 40 第五章 結論與建議 53 第一節 研究結論 53 第二節 限制與建議 54 參考文獻 55 英文參考文獻 55 中文參考文獻 59 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1814484 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357009 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地方選舉 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房市 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 斷點迴歸 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 景氣循環 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不確定性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mayoral Election en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing Market en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regression Discontinuity Design en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Business Cycle en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Uncertainty en_US dc.title (題名) 地方選舉對房市的影響 基於斷點迴歸的分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Local Elections on the Housing Market - An Analysis Based on Regression Discontinuity en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文參考文獻 Abdulai, R. T., & Owusu-Ansah, A. (2011). House price determinants in Liverpool, United Kingdom. Current Politics and Economics of Europe, 22(1), 1-26. Agarwal, S., Chen, Y., Li, J., & Tan, Y. J. (2021). Hedonic price of housing space. Real Estate Economics, 49(2), 574-609. Alt, J. E., & Lowry, R. C. (1994). Divided government, fiscal institutions, and budget deficits: Evidence from the states. American Political Science Review, 88(4), 811-828. Boone, A. L., & White, J. T. (2015). The effect of institutional ownership on firm transparency and information production. Journal of financial economics, 117(3), 508-533. Brown, K. C., Harlow, W. V., & Tinic, S. M. (1988). Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency. Journal of financial economics, 22(2), 355-385. Butler, M. R., & McNertney, E. M. (1991). Election returns as a signal of changing regulatory climate. Energy economics, 13(1), 48-54. Canes-Wrone, B., & Park, J.-K. (2014). Elections, uncertainty and irreversible investment. British Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 83-106. Case, A. (1994). Taxes and the electoral cycle: How sensitive are governors to coming elections. Business review(Mar), 17-26. Cattaneo, M. D., Idrobo, N., & Titiunik, R. (2019). A practical introduction to regression discontinuity designs: Foundations. Cambridge University Press. Cellini, S. R., Ferreira, F., & Rothstein, J. (2010). The value of school facility investments: Evidence from a dynamic regression discontinuity design. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(1), 215-261. Chen, W. Y., & JIM, C. Y. (2010). Amenities and disamenities: A hedonic analysis of the heterogeneous urban landscape in Shenzhen (China). Geographical Journal, 176(3), 227-240. Chen, Y., Shi, S., & Tang, Y. (2019). Valuing the urban hukou in China: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design for housing prices. Journal of Development Economics, 141, 102381. Choi, C.-Y. (2023). State political uncertainty and local housing markets-Evidence from US mid-term gubernatorial elections. Applied Economics, 55(57), 6717-6738. Crane, A. D., Michenaud, S., & Weston, J. P. (2016). The effect of institutional ownership on payout policy: Evidence from index thresholds. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(6), 1377-1408. Cusack, T. R. (1997). Partisan politics and public finance: Changes in public spending in the industrialized democracies, 1955–1989. Public Choice, 91(3), 375-395. De Blasio, G., De Mitri, S., D'Ignazio, A., Russo, P. F., & Stoppani, L. (2018). Public guarantees to SME borrowing. A RDD evaluation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 96, 73-86. De Genaro, A., Salvador, P. I. C. A., & Fernandes, I. F. (2021). Market power and banking regulations: Evidence from RDD application to the Brazilian banking market. Economics Letters, 202, 109821. Fürstenau, E., Gohl, N., Haan, P., & Weinhardt, F. (2023). Working life and human capital investment: Causal evidence from a pension reform. Labour Economics, 84, 102426. Gao, G., Li, X., Liu, X., & Dong, J. (2021). Does air pollution impact fiscal sustainability? Evidence from Chinese cities. Energies, 14(21), 7247. Goodell, J. W., & Vähämaa, S. (2013). US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(3), 1108-1117. Goodman, A. C., & Thibodeau, T. G. (1997). Dwelling-age-related heteroskedasticity in hedonic house price equations: An extension. Journal of Housing Research, 299-317. Higgins, D., & Reddy, W. (2010). The impact of political risk on Australian house prices. Australia and New Zealand Property Journal, 2(7), 413. Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. The journal of Finance, 67(1), 45-83. Kapur, D., & Vaishnav, M. (2013). Quid pro quo: Builders, politicians, and election finance in India. Center for Global Development Working Paper(276). Khan, M., Srinivasan, S., & Tan, L. (2017). Institutional ownership and corporate tax avoidance: New evidence. The Accounting Review, 92(2), 101-122. Kiel, K. A., & Zabel, J. E. (1996). House price differentials in US cities: Household and neighborhood racial effects. Journal of Housing Economics, 5(2), 143-165. Kong, D., Cheng, Y., & Liu, S. (2021). Unexpected housing wealth appreciation and stock market participation. Journal of Housing Economics, 52, 101768. Li, J., & Born, J. A. (2006). Presidential election uncertainty and common stock returns in the United States. Journal of Financial Research, 29(4), 609-622. Liu, L. C.-H. (2021). The housing business cycle of local public finance: empirical evidence from Taiwan. Journal of Asian Public Policy, 14(3), 375-390. Mattozzi, A. (2008). Can we insure against political uncertainty? Evidence from the US stock market. Public Choice, 137, 43-55. Miles, W. (2014). 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