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題名 美元化和比特幣的採用對薩爾瓦多經濟的影響
The influence of Dollarization and Bitcoin Adoption in El Salvador's Economy作者 莫瑞恆
Argueta, Mauricio貢獻者 薛健吾
Chien-Wu, Hsueh
莫瑞恆
Mauricio Argueta關鍵詞 經濟
美元化
比特幣
Economy
Dollarization
Bitcoin日期 2024 上傳時間 1-Jul-2024 13:24:32 (UTC+8) 摘要 本論文研究了美元化和比特幣採用對薩爾瓦多經濟的交織影響，提出了開創性的分析，探討了這兩種重要的經濟策略如何相互補充和影響。 2001年，薩爾瓦多採用美元作為官方貨幣，此舉旨在穩定經濟、抑制通貨膨脹、吸引外國投資。二十年後，薩爾瓦多做出了一項大膽且前所未有的決定，於 2021 年成為第一個採用比特幣作為法定貨幣的國家。 這項研究是第一個深入分析這兩項變革政策對單一國民經濟的同時影響的研究之一。透過採用計量經濟模型、政策分析和定性訪談等混合方法，本文試圖闡明發展中經濟體中傳統貨幣和數位貨幣之間的多方面關係。研究結果預計將為政策制定者、經濟學家和國際金融機構提供寶貴的見解，強調將數位貨幣融入美元化經濟的潛在好處和挑戰。這項研究的結果可以為其他國家考慮類似的經濟策略樹立先例，從而為貨幣創新和金融現代化的全球討論做出貢獻。最終，本文旨在深入了解美元化和比特幣的採用如何共同塑造薩爾瓦多的經濟格局，為全球金融的未來提供前瞻性的視角。
This thesis investigates the intertwined impacts of dollarization and Bitcoin adoption on El Salvador's economy, presenting a pioneering analysis that explores how these two significant economic strategies complement and influence each other. In 2001, El Salvador adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency, a move aimed at stabilizing the economy, curbing inflation, and attracting foreign investment. Two decades later, in a bold and unprecedented decision, El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021. This dual currency strategy presents a unique case study in modern economic policy. This study is among the first to provide an in-depth analysis of the concurrent impacts of these two transformative policies in a single national economy. By employing a mixed-methods approach, including econometric modeling, policy analysis, and qualitative interviews, this thesis seeks to elucidate the multifaceted relationship between traditional and digital currencies in a developing economy. The findings are expected to offer valuable insights for policymakers, economists, and international financial institutions, highlighting both the potential benefits and challenges of integrating digital currencies within a dollarized economy. The results of this research could set a precedent for other nations contemplating similar economic strategies, thereby contributing to the global discourse on monetary innovation and financial modernization. Ultimately, this thesis aims to provide a nuanced understanding of how dollarization and Bitcoin adoption collectively shape the economic landscape of El Salvador, offering a forward-looking perspective on the future of global finance.參考文獻 Alesina, A. and Barro, R.J. (2001). Dollarization. The American Economics Review 91 (2): 381- 385. Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., & Van Patten, D. (2022). Are Cryptocurrencies Currencies? Bitcoin as Legal Tender in El Salvador (NBER Working Paper No. 29968). National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w29968. Andolfatto, D. (2018). "Blockchain: What it is, what it does, and why you probably don't need one." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. Andvig, J. (1991). The Economics of Corruption: A Survey [Ebook]. Retrieved from https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/gov2126/files/andvig_1991.pdf Antonopoulos, A. M. (2014). Mastering Bitcoin: Unlocking Digital Cryptocurrencies. O'Reilly Media. Associated Press. (2019). The Line: Drug trafficking and political corruption in Honduras. Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador. (2001). Retrieved 19 November 2019, from https://www.bcr.gob.sv/bcrsite/?cat=1098&title=El%20Dinero%20en%20El%20Salvador&lang=es Baker Institute. (2016). The State of Corruption in Latin America. Retrieved from https://www.bakerinstitute.org Bardhan, P. (1997). Corruption and Development: A Review of Issues. Journal of Economic Literature, 35 (3), 1320-1346. Retrieved from www.jstor.org/stable/2729979 BCR. (2000-2019) Retrieved 19 November 2019, from https://www.bcr.gob.sv/esp/ *MULTIPLE THINGS RETRIEVED IN DIFFERENT YEARS Böhme, R., Christin, N., Edelman, B., & Moore, T. (2015). Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance. Journal of Economic Perspectives. Boos, T., & Grigera, J. (2023). The Political Economy of Bitcoin as Legal Tender in El Salvador (UNU-WIDER Working Paper 136/2023). United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2023/444-1. Boyd, John H., Ross Levine, and Bruce D. Smith, (2001). "The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 221-48. Britannica. (2023). El Salvador - Postconflict, Economy, Politics. Retrieved from britannica.com Bukele, N. [@nayibbukele]. (2024, May 15). Twitter. Retrieved from https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1789774772076749198?s=48 Bukele, N. [@nayibbukele]. (2022, November 17). El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment has begun! [Tweet]. X. https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1593113857261965312 Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance. (2021). Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index. University of Cambridge. https://www.cbeci.org/ Cambridge Core. (2002). The Socioeconomic Implications of Dollarization in El Salvador. Retrieved from https://www.cambridge.org Carlos Rafael Cabarrús. Génesis de una revolución. Análisis del surgimiento y desarrollo de la organización campesina en El Salvador. CULTURA/SEP. Ed. de la casa chata 16. 1a. edición México. P. 37. Casey, M. J., & Vigna, P. (2018). The Truth Machine: The Blockchain and the Future of Everything. St. Martin's Press. Catalini, C., & Gans, J. S. (2016). Some Simple Economics of the Blockchain. MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 5191-16. Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador. (2021). Economic and Financial Report. Retrieved from https://www.bcr.gob.sv/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=168 Centro de Pesquisa e Documentação de História Contemporânea do Brasil. (2019). Lava Jato: The largest anti-corruption operation in Brazil's history. Cohen, B. J. (2002). The Benefits and Costs of Dollarization. The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 8(2), 101-112. CoinDesk. (2024, February 13). Bitcoin (BTC) favored in human trafficking, child exploitation: FinCEN report. CoinDesk. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/02/13/bitcoin-btc-favored-in-human-trafficking-child-exploitation-fincen-report/ CoinMarketCap. (2024). Cryptocurrency market capitalizations. Retrieved May 10, 2024, from https://coinmarketcap.com/ CPDOC. (2019). FEDERACAO DAS INDUSTRIAS DO ESTADO DE SAO PAULO (FIESP) | CPDOC - Centro de Pesquisa e Documentação de História Contemporânea do Brasil. Retrieved 19 November 2019, from http://www.fgv.br/cpdoc/acervo/dicionarios/verbete-tematico/federacao-das-industrias-do-estado-de-sao-paulo-fiesp Cunha, J. (2016). Ex-presidente de El Salvador es preso por corrupción. Instituto Humanitas Unisinos. Retrieved from https://ihu.unisinos.br/562135-ex-presidente-de-el-salvador-es-preso-por-corrupcion De Nicolo, Gianni; Honohan, Patrick; Ize, Alain. (2003). Dollarization of the Banking System : Good or Bad?. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3116. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/18133 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. Donohue, Laura K. (1994). Reconstructing El Salvador: Making Peace Permanent. Journal of International Affairs. ECLAC, CEPALSTAT database retried at www.eclac.cl/estadisticas/bases/ Election Guide. (2021, February 28). 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Regulatory challenges for cryptocurrencies. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/ Flores, F. (2009). Francisco Flores Perez [Ebook]. Retrieved from https://www.cidob.org/content/pdf/1622 Frankel, J. and Romer, D. (1999). Does Trade Cause Growth? The American Economic Review. 89 (3): 379-399. Greenberg, A. (2014, March 3). The inside story of Mt. Gox, Bitcoin’s $450 million disaster. Wired. https://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-exchange/ Hanke, S. (2018). Dollarization. Retrieved 19 November 2019, from https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/articles/sage-encyclopedia-of-business-ethics-and-society-update.pdf Hinds, M., (1999), Prepared Testimony for U.S. Senate Banking Committee, Hearing on Official Dollarization in Emerging-Market Countries. Available on the internet at: http://banking.senate.gov/99_07hrg/071599/hinds.htm Human Rights Watch. (2020, February 5). Deported to danger: United States deportation policies expose Salvadorans to death and torture. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/report/2020/02/05/deported-danger/united-states-deportation-policies-expose-salvadorans-death-and#:~:text=By%202018%2C%20Salvadorans%20had%20the,other%20countries%20throughout%20the%20world. IMF. (2011). Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime: Its Effects on El Salvador. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org INDEC. (2019). Argentina Total External Debt | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast. Retrieved 29 November 2019, from https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/external-debt Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad. (2015). The economic impact of corruption in Mexico. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. (2019). Public debt and economic challenges in Argentina. International Coffee Organization. (2020). Annual Review 2019-2020. Retrieved from http://www.ico.org/documents/cy2019-20/icc-124-8e-annual-review.pdf International Crisis Group. (2017, December). El Salvador’s politics of perpetual violence. Retrieved from https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/central-america/el-salvador/64-el-salvadors-politics-perpetual-violence International Monetary Fund (2006). El Salvador: 2006 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for El Salvador. IMF Country Report No. 06/297. International Monetary Fund. (2019). Economic outlook for Venezuela. International Monetary Fund. (2021). The macroeconomic implications of digital currencies. IMF. https://www.imf.org/ Ize, Alain and Eric Parrado, (2002). "Dollarization, Monetary Policy and the Pass-Through," IMF Working Paper 02/188. Jones, C. (2019). "Bitcoin and financial inclusion: Opportunities and challenges." Emerging Markets Review. Kashani, S. (2020). Forces that Propelled the Civil War in El Salvador: Peasant Mobilization, the Catholic Church, and United States Intervention. Retrieved from escholarship.org Kim, T. (2020). "Blockchain technology and financial applications: Implications for banking and entrepreneurship." Journal of Business Venturing Insights. Kharif, O. (2021, April 27). Bitcoin ownership concentration. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-27/bitcoin-whales LatinAmerican Post. (2024). El Salvador witnesses remarkable 70% drop in homicides in 2023. https://latinamericanpost.com/37285-el-salvador-witnesses-remarkable-70-drop-in-homicides-in-2023 Le, V. (2012). Organized Crime Typologies: Structure, Activities and Conditions. International Journal of Criminology and Sociology. doi:10.6000/1929-4409.2012.01.12 Lee, D. (2018). "The impact of cryptocurrency on financial inclusion." Journal of Economic Development. Lopez, E. (2024, April 16). Hello, El Salvador: We're opening our new offices to support digital transformation. Google Blog. Retrieved from https://blog.google/inside-google/company-announcements/hello-el-salvador-were-opening-our-new-offices-to-support-digital-transformation/ López, T., (2001), "Elementos de la Política Monetaria en El Salvador Hasta el Año 2000," Boletín Económico del Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador, Vol. 14, No. 144. Mainwaring S (2003) Democratic accountability in Latin America. Oxford ; New York : Oxford University Press Markham, L. (2016, November). San Salvador's millennial mayor. Pulitzer Center. Retrieved from https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/san-salvadors-millenial-mayor Martínez d'Aubuisson, J., & Martínez, C. (2016, October 29). FMLN ofreció a las pandillas un programa de créditos de 10 millones de dólares. El Faro. Retrieved from https://elfaro.net/es/201610/salanegra/19473/FMLN-ofreci%C3%B3-a-las-pandillas-un-programa-de-cr%C3%A9ditos-de-10-millones-de-d%C3%B3lares.htm Ministerio de la Defensa Nacional. (2024, January 3). 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The Bitcoin Lightning Network: Scalable Off-Chain Instant Payments. Retrieved from https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf Rauda, N. (2017). Expresidente Funes condenado por 419 mil dólares que no pudo justificar. El Faro. Retrieved from https://elfaro.net/es/201711/el_salvador/21218/Expresidente-Funes-condenado-por-419-mil-d%C3%B3lares-que-no-pudo-justificar.htm Renteria, N., & Kinosian, S. (2024, February 5). El Salvador President Bukele poised for another landslide as voters head to polls. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvador-president-bukele-poised-another-landslide-voters-head-polls-2024-02-04/ Reuters. (2024, May 14). El Salvador mined nearly 474 bitcoins, adding to state crypto holding in last three months. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/el-salvador-mined-nearly-474-bitcoins-adding-state-crypto-holding-last-three-2024-05-14/ Rivera-Solis, L. E. (2012). Dollarization in El Salvador: Revisited. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Rodriguez, M., & Dombrow, J. (2015). Dollarization and Real Estate Market Performance: Evidence from Housing in El Salvador. Journal of Housing Research, 24 (1), 37-54. Retrieved from www.jstor.org/stable/24861809 Romberg RI (2009) Corruption in Latin America. Lexington, MA, USA. Springer International Publishing AG Rose, A. (2000). One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade. Economic policy 15 (30):7-46. Roth, K. (2020). El Salvador. Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/es/world-report/2020/country-chapters/el salvador#:~:text=durante%20los%20registros.-,Maras,los%20262%20municipios%20del%20pa%C3%ADs. Smith, A. (2017). "Cryptocurrency as an inflation hedge." Journal of Financial Economics. Smith, J. (2024, May 22). El Salvador launches real-time Bitcoin treasury tracker. Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/el-salvador-launches-real-time-045415056.html Sorto, M. (2023). 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Dollarization in El Salvador celebrates 21 years. Retrieved from https://www.thecentralamericangroup.com Towers, M., & Borzutzky, S. (2018, January). The socioeconomic implications of dollarization in El Salvador. Latin American Politics and Society. Retrieved from https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/latin-american-politics-and-society/article/abs/socioeconomic-implications-of-dollarization-in-el-salvador/145694B10771392AAC0053CC0F0E4C34 Transparency, I. (2019). Americas: weakening democracy and rise in populism hinder anti-corruption efforts. Retrieved 29 November 2019, from https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/cpi-2018-regional-analysis-americas Transparency International. (2019). Global Corruption Barometer. USAID, Latin America and the Caribbean: Selected Economic and Social Data http://lac.eads.usaidallnet.gov/ U.S. Department of Commerce. (2022). El Salvador - Country Commercial Guide. 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St. Martin's Press Wallace, B. (2011). The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin. Wired. Retrieved from https://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/ World Bank. (2020). Digital infrastructure and the future of global finance. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/ World Bank. (2022). Personal remittances, received (% of GDP) - El Salvador. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?locations=SV World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators# World Bank. (2024, April 3). El Salvador Overview. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/elsalvador/overview World Bank Group. (2022). Financial Inclusion in El Salvador. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2022/10/13/financial-inclusion-in-el-salvador Yermack, D. (2013). Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An Economic Appraisal. National Bureau of Economic Research. Zhang, Y., & Chan, S. (2019). "Bitcoin's utility in international trade." Journal of International Business Studies. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
106862023資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862023 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 薛健吾 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chien-Wu, Hsueh en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 莫瑞恆 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Mauricio Argueta en_US dc.creator (作者) 莫瑞恆 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Argueta, Mauricio en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2024 13:24:32 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Jul-2024 13:24:32 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2024 13:24:32 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0106862023 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152124 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 106862023 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文研究了美元化和比特幣採用對薩爾瓦多經濟的交織影響，提出了開創性的分析，探討了這兩種重要的經濟策略如何相互補充和影響。 2001年，薩爾瓦多採用美元作為官方貨幣，此舉旨在穩定經濟、抑制通貨膨脹、吸引外國投資。二十年後，薩爾瓦多做出了一項大膽且前所未有的決定，於 2021 年成為第一個採用比特幣作為法定貨幣的國家。 這項研究是第一個深入分析這兩項變革政策對單一國民經濟的同時影響的研究之一。透過採用計量經濟模型、政策分析和定性訪談等混合方法，本文試圖闡明發展中經濟體中傳統貨幣和數位貨幣之間的多方面關係。研究結果預計將為政策制定者、經濟學家和國際金融機構提供寶貴的見解，強調將數位貨幣融入美元化經濟的潛在好處和挑戰。這項研究的結果可以為其他國家考慮類似的經濟策略樹立先例，從而為貨幣創新和金融現代化的全球討論做出貢獻。最終，本文旨在深入了解美元化和比特幣的採用如何共同塑造薩爾瓦多的經濟格局，為全球金融的未來提供前瞻性的視角。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis investigates the intertwined impacts of dollarization and Bitcoin adoption on El Salvador's economy, presenting a pioneering analysis that explores how these two significant economic strategies complement and influence each other. In 2001, El Salvador adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency, a move aimed at stabilizing the economy, curbing inflation, and attracting foreign investment. Two decades later, in a bold and unprecedented decision, El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021. This dual currency strategy presents a unique case study in modern economic policy. This study is among the first to provide an in-depth analysis of the concurrent impacts of these two transformative policies in a single national economy. By employing a mixed-methods approach, including econometric modeling, policy analysis, and qualitative interviews, this thesis seeks to elucidate the multifaceted relationship between traditional and digital currencies in a developing economy. The findings are expected to offer valuable insights for policymakers, economists, and international financial institutions, highlighting both the potential benefits and challenges of integrating digital currencies within a dollarized economy. The results of this research could set a precedent for other nations contemplating similar economic strategies, thereby contributing to the global discourse on monetary innovation and financial modernization. Ultimately, this thesis aims to provide a nuanced understanding of how dollarization and Bitcoin adoption collectively shape the economic landscape of El Salvador, offering a forward-looking perspective on the future of global finance. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents I. Introduction Pg. 1 1.1 Background Pg. 1 1.2 Motivation Pg. 6 1.3 Research Question Pg. 9 1.4 Argument/ Main Findings Pg. 11 1.5 Research Method and Limitations Pg. 13 II. Political and Economic Problems in El Salvador Pg. 15 2.1 Political Background Pg. 16 2.2 Economic Background Pg. 22 2.3 Security and it’s problem in society and Economics Pg. 27 2.4 What’s Next Pg. 31 III. The Influence of Dollarization Pg. 35 3.1 Dollarization and it’s process Pg. 35 3.2 Pros of dollarization Pg. 42 3.3 Cons of Dollarization Pg. 44 3.4 Analyzing the change of the related Indexes Pg.48 3.5 Conclusion Pg.71 IV. The Influence of Bitcoin Adoption Pg. 75 4.1 Bitcoin 101 Pg.76 4.2 Introduction of Bitcoin Adoption in El Salvador and it’s process Pg.80 4.3 Pros of Bitcoin Adoption Pg.84 4.4 Cons of Bitcoin Adoption Pg.86 4.5 Analyzing the change of the related Indexes Pg.90 4.6 Conclusion Pg.103 V. Conclusion Pg.107 5.1 General Conclusion Pg. 107 5.2 Pro’s and Con’s Review Pg. 111 5.3 Future Research and Policy Suggestions Pg. 119 Citations. Pg.125 zh_TW dc.format.extent 12381226 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106862023 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 美元化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 比特幣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dollarization en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Bitcoin en_US dc.title (題名) 美元化和比特幣的採用對薩爾瓦多經濟的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The influence of Dollarization and Bitcoin Adoption in El Salvador's Economy en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alesina, A. and Barro, R.J. (2001). Dollarization. The American Economics Review 91 (2): 381- 385. Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., & Van Patten, D. (2022). Are Cryptocurrencies Currencies? Bitcoin as Legal Tender in El Salvador (NBER Working Paper No. 29968). National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w29968. Andolfatto, D. (2018). "Blockchain: What it is, what it does, and why you probably don't need one." 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