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題名 國際貿易與邦交關係
International trade and diplomatic relations
作者 黃筠絜
Huang, Yun-Jie
貢獻者 蔡致遠
Tsai, Chi-Yuan
黃筠絜
Huang, Yun-Jie
關鍵詞 貿易引力模型
邦交關係
外交關係
Gravity model
Diplomatic ties
Diplomatic relations
日期 2024
上傳時間 5-Aug-2024 11:55:25 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究使用2000年至2022年臺灣及中國的進出口數據，以貿易引力模型探討邦交關係對臺灣及中國進出口貿易之影響。研究發現，當他國與臺灣斷交時，以臺灣的角度而言，將不利於臺灣對其的出口額以及出口占比（出口國出口至一國之出口額占出口國該年度總出口之比例）；然而，以他國的角度而言，其對臺灣的出口額並無顯著變化，但卻導致較低的出口占比。在中國方面，當他國與臺灣斷交，中國對該國的出口額和出口占比皆增加，惟該國對中國的出口額及出口占比皆無顯著變化。此外，本研究也進一步探討實質外交關係對貿易的影響，結果顯示，臺灣總統與副總統的出訪次數和駐外外交機構密度分別對臺灣出口及進口貿易有正面影響，但對中國的進出口貿易並無影響。研究結果表示，維持邦交與實質外交關係對臺灣之雙邊貿易具重要性，而其他國家在選擇與臺灣斷交後，中國對其出口可能增加，但其未必能提升對中國的出口。
This study employs Taiwan and China's import and export data from 2000 to 2022 to investigate the implications of diplomatic relations on bilateral trade flows between Taiwan, China, and their respective trade partners, employing the gravity model. The findings unveil that when a country severs formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, from Taiwan's perspective, it adversely impacts Taiwan's export volumes to that country, as well as its export share (defined as a country's exports to a specific trade partner as a proportion of its total exports in a given year). However, from the perspective of the severing country, while the absolute value of its exports to Taiwan exhibits no statistically significant change, it experiences a diminished export share to Taiwan. Conversely, when a country terminates diplomatic relations with Taiwan, China's export volumes to that country and its corresponding export share both experience a significant increase, although the severing country's exports to China and its export share to China remain statistically unaffected. Moreover, this study further scrutinizes the influence of substantive diplomatic relations on trade flows, and the results indicate that the frequency of overseas visits by Taiwan's president and vice president, as well as the density of Taiwan's overseas diplomatic institutions, exert a positive impact on Taiwan's export and import volumes, respectively. However, these factors do not yield statistically significant effects on China's trade flows. The findings suggest that maintaining formal diplomatic ties and substantive diplomatic relations is of paramount importance for Taiwan's bilateral trade, while other countries that sever ties with Taiwan may experience an increase in China's exports to them, but not necessarily a concomitant enhancement in their exports to China.
參考文獻 中華民國外交部（2001）。中華民國89年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2002）。中華民國90年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2003）。中華民國91年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2004）。中華民國92年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2006）。中華民國93年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2007）。中華民國94年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2007）。中華民國95年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2008）。中華民國96年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2009）。中華民國97年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2010）。中華民國98年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2011）。中華民國99年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2012）。中華民國100年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2013）。中華民國101年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2014）。中華民國102年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2015）。中華民國103年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2016）。中華民國104年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2017）。中華民國105年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2018）。中華民國106年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2019）。中華民國107年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2020）。中華民國108年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2021）。中華民國109年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2022）。中華民國110年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2023）。中華民國111年外交年鑑。 張宏賜 (1997) 。我國外交關係對雙邊貿易影響之實證分析。(碩士論文。私立輔仁大學) 臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統。 陳宗巖 (2018)。只租不賣的臺灣友邦：斷交政治經濟學。問題與研究，57(3)，139-151。 譚偉恩 (2019)。邦交與斷交之外交關係研究：以2016～2019年的台灣及其實踐為例。國際與公共事務，第11期，頁37-65。 Anderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106–116. Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American economic review, 93(1), 170-192. Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2004). Trade costs. Journal of Economic literature, 42(3), 691-751. Anderson, J. E., Larch, M., & Yotov, Y. V. (2015). Estimating General Equilibrium Trade Policy Effects: GE PPML. CESifo Working Papers, 1-25. Armstrong, S.P. (2012), The Politics of Japan–China Trade and the Role of the World Trade System. The World Economy, 35: 1102-1120. Bagozzi, B. E., & Landis, S. T. (2015). The stabilizing effects of international politics on bilateral trade flows. Foreign Policy Analysis, 11(2), 151-171. Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?. Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72-95. Baier, S. L., Yotov, Y. V., & Zylkin, T. (2019). On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration. Journal of International Economics, 116, 206-226. Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition, and the factor-proportions theory in international trade. The Review of Economics and statistics, 143-153. Chen, J & Chen, L.- yu. (2024). “The promise of growth: A Difference-in-Differences analysis of the economic impact of switching diplomatic relations between Taiwan and China.” Switching Diplomatic Recognition Between Taiwan and China: Economic and Social Impact, 1st ed., edited by Wu, C.-H., 2024, pp. 70-94. Cipollina, M., & Salvatici, L. (2010). Reciprocal trade agreements in gravity models: A meta‐analysis. Review of International Economics, 18(1), 63-80. Conte, M., P. Cotterlaz and T. Mayer (2022), "The CEPII Gravity database". CEPII Working Paper N°2022-05, July 2022. Crozet, M., & Hinz, J. (2020). Friendly fire: The trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions. Economic Policy, 35(101), 97-146. Deardorff, A., (1984). Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows. In: Jones, R., Kenen, P.B. (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics, vol. 1. Elsevier, pp. 467–517. Didier, L. (2018). Economic diplomacy: The “one–China policy” effect on trade. China Economic Review, 48, 223-243. Disdier, A. C., & Head, K. (2008). The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade. The Review of Economics and statistics, 90(1), 37-48. Egger, Peter H. and Mario Larch (2008), Interdependent Preferential Trade Agreement Memberships: An Empirical Analysis, Journal of International Economics 76(2), pp. 384-399. Frank, J. (2017). The empirical consequences of trade sanctions for directly and indirectly affected countries (No. 174). FIW Working paper. Fuchs, A., & Klann, N. H. (2013). Paying a visit: The Dalai Lama effect on international trade. Journal of International Economics, 91(1), 164-177. Harris, R., & Li, Q. C. (2005). Review of the literature: the role of international trade and investment in business growth and development. Report to UKTI. Head, K., & Ries, J. (2010). Do trade missions increase trade?. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 43(3), 754-775. Head, K., Mayer, T., & Ries, J. (2010). The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence. Journal of International Economics, 81(1), 1-14. Heilmann, K. (2016). Does political conflict hurt trade? Evidence from consumer boycotts. Journal of International Economics, 99, 179-191. King, G., & Lowe, W. (2003). An Automated Information Extraction Tool for International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design. International Organization, 57(3), 617–642. Larch, M., & Yotov, Y. V. (2016). General equilibrium trade policy analysis with structural gravity. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6020. Lewer, J. J., & Van den Berg, H. (2007). Religion and international trade: does the sharing of a religious culture facilitate the formation of trade networks?. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 66(4), 765-794. McCallum, J. (1995). National borders matter: Canada-US regional trade patterns. The American economic review, 85(3), 615-623. Melitz, J. (2002), “Language and Foreign Trade”, CEPR Discussion Paper 3590. Michaels, G., & Zhi, X. (2010). Freedom fries. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(3), 256-281. Rose, A. K. (2007). The foreign service and foreign trade: embassies as export promotion. World Economy, 30(1), 22-38. Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and statistics, 88(4), 641-658. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy; suggestions for an international economic policy. Tyazhelnikov, V., Romalis, J., & Long, Y. (2022). Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation. Working Paper. Wei, S. J. (1996). Intra-national versus international trade: how stubborn are nations in global integration?. Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., & Larch, M. (2016). An advanced guide to trade policy analysis: The structural gravity model. WTO iLibrary.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
111351003
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111351003
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 蔡致遠zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Tsai, Chi-Yuanen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃筠絜zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang, Yun-Jieen_US
dc.creator (作者) 黃筠絜zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Huang, Yun-Jieen_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 5-Aug-2024 11:55:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-Aug-2024 11:55:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Aug-2024 11:55:25 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111351003en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152389-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 111351003zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究使用2000年至2022年臺灣及中國的進出口數據，以貿易引力模型探討邦交關係對臺灣及中國進出口貿易之影響。研究發現，當他國與臺灣斷交時，以臺灣的角度而言，將不利於臺灣對其的出口額以及出口占比（出口國出口至一國之出口額占出口國該年度總出口之比例）；然而，以他國的角度而言，其對臺灣的出口額並無顯著變化，但卻導致較低的出口占比。在中國方面，當他國與臺灣斷交，中國對該國的出口額和出口占比皆增加，惟該國對中國的出口額及出口占比皆無顯著變化。此外，本研究也進一步探討實質外交關係對貿易的影響，結果顯示，臺灣總統與副總統的出訪次數和駐外外交機構密度分別對臺灣出口及進口貿易有正面影響，但對中國的進出口貿易並無影響。研究結果表示，維持邦交與實質外交關係對臺灣之雙邊貿易具重要性，而其他國家在選擇與臺灣斷交後，中國對其出口可能增加，但其未必能提升對中國的出口。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study employs Taiwan and China's import and export data from 2000 to 2022 to investigate the implications of diplomatic relations on bilateral trade flows between Taiwan, China, and their respective trade partners, employing the gravity model. The findings unveil that when a country severs formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, from Taiwan's perspective, it adversely impacts Taiwan's export volumes to that country, as well as its export share (defined as a country's exports to a specific trade partner as a proportion of its total exports in a given year). However, from the perspective of the severing country, while the absolute value of its exports to Taiwan exhibits no statistically significant change, it experiences a diminished export share to Taiwan. Conversely, when a country terminates diplomatic relations with Taiwan, China's export volumes to that country and its corresponding export share both experience a significant increase, although the severing country's exports to China and its export share to China remain statistically unaffected. Moreover, this study further scrutinizes the influence of substantive diplomatic relations on trade flows, and the results indicate that the frequency of overseas visits by Taiwan's president and vice president, as well as the density of Taiwan's overseas diplomatic institutions, exert a positive impact on Taiwan's export and import volumes, respectively. However, these factors do not yield statistically significant effects on China's trade flows. The findings suggest that maintaining formal diplomatic ties and substantive diplomatic relations is of paramount importance for Taiwan's bilateral trade, while other countries that sever ties with Taiwan may experience an increase in China's exports to them, but not necessarily a concomitant enhancement in their exports to China.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章　緒論 1 　第一節　研究動機與目的 1 　第二節　研究架構 2 第二章　文獻回顧 3 　第一節　貿易引力模型 3 　第二節　政治衝突與貿易 4 　第三節　外交、邦交關係與貿易 5 第三章　現況分析 8 　第一節　臺灣外交與邦交關係現況 8 　第二節　各國對邦交關係變化之立場 12 第四章　研究方法 19 　第一節　模型設定與變數說明 19 　第二節　研究預期 22 第五章　研究結果 27 　第一節　敘述性統計 27 　第二節　實證結果 28 第六章　結論與限制 43 參考文獻 46zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1219481 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111351003en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 貿易引力模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 邦交關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 外交關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Gravity modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Diplomatic tiesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Diplomatic relationsen_US
dc.title (題名) 國際貿易與邦交關係zh_TW
dc.title (題名) International trade and diplomatic relationsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中華民國外交部（2001）。中華民國89年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2002）。中華民國90年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2003）。中華民國91年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2004）。中華民國92年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2006）。中華民國93年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2007）。中華民國94年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2007）。中華民國95年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2008）。中華民國96年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2009）。中華民國97年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2010）。中華民國98年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2011）。中華民國99年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2012）。中華民國100年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2013）。中華民國101年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2014）。中華民國102年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2015）。中華民國103年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2016）。中華民國104年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2017）。中華民國105年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2018）。中華民國106年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2019）。中華民國107年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2020）。中華民國108年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2021）。中華民國109年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2022）。中華民國110年外交年鑑。 中華民國外交部（2023）。中華民國111年外交年鑑。 張宏賜 (1997) 。我國外交關係對雙邊貿易影響之實證分析。(碩士論文。私立輔仁大學) 臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統。 陳宗巖 (2018)。只租不賣的臺灣友邦：斷交政治經濟學。問題與研究，57(3)，139-151。 譚偉恩 (2019)。邦交與斷交之外交關係研究：以2016～2019年的台灣及其實踐為例。國際與公共事務，第11期，頁37-65。 Anderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106–116. Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American economic review, 93(1), 170-192. Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2004). Trade costs. Journal of Economic literature, 42(3), 691-751. Anderson, J. E., Larch, M., & Yotov, Y. V. (2015). Estimating General Equilibrium Trade Policy Effects: GE PPML. CESifo Working Papers, 1-25. Armstrong, S.P. (2012), The Politics of Japan–China Trade and the Role of the World Trade System. The World Economy, 35: 1102-1120. Bagozzi, B. E., & Landis, S. T. (2015). The stabilizing effects of international politics on bilateral trade flows. Foreign Policy Analysis, 11(2), 151-171. Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?. Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72-95. Baier, S. L., Yotov, Y. V., & Zylkin, T. (2019). On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration. Journal of International Economics, 116, 206-226. Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition, and the factor-proportions theory in international trade. The Review of Economics and statistics, 143-153. Chen, J & Chen, L.- yu. (2024). “The promise of growth: A Difference-in-Differences analysis of the economic impact of switching diplomatic relations between Taiwan and China.” Switching Diplomatic Recognition Between Taiwan and China: Economic and Social Impact, 1st ed., edited by Wu, C.-H., 2024, pp. 70-94. Cipollina, M., & Salvatici, L. (2010). Reciprocal trade agreements in gravity models: A meta‐analysis. Review of International Economics, 18(1), 63-80. Conte, M., P. Cotterlaz and T. Mayer (2022), "The CEPII Gravity database". CEPII Working Paper N°2022-05, July 2022. Crozet, M., & Hinz, J. (2020). Friendly fire: The trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions. Economic Policy, 35(101), 97-146. Deardorff, A., (1984). Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows. In: Jones, R., Kenen, P.B. (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics, vol. 1. Elsevier, pp. 467–517. Didier, L. (2018). Economic diplomacy: The “one–China policy” effect on trade. China Economic Review, 48, 223-243. Disdier, A. C., & Head, K. (2008). The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade. The Review of Economics and statistics, 90(1), 37-48. Egger, Peter H. and Mario Larch (2008), Interdependent Preferential Trade Agreement Memberships: An Empirical Analysis, Journal of International Economics 76(2), pp. 384-399. Frank, J. (2017). The empirical consequences of trade sanctions for directly and indirectly affected countries (No. 174). FIW Working paper. Fuchs, A., & Klann, N. H. (2013). Paying a visit: The Dalai Lama effect on international trade. Journal of International Economics, 91(1), 164-177. Harris, R., & Li, Q. C. (2005). Review of the literature: the role of international trade and investment in business growth and development. Report to UKTI. Head, K., & Ries, J. (2010). Do trade missions increase trade?. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 43(3), 754-775. Head, K., Mayer, T., & Ries, J. (2010). The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence. Journal of International Economics, 81(1), 1-14. Heilmann, K. (2016). Does political conflict hurt trade? Evidence from consumer boycotts. Journal of International Economics, 99, 179-191. King, G., & Lowe, W. (2003). An Automated Information Extraction Tool for International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design. International Organization, 57(3), 617–642. Larch, M., & Yotov, Y. V. (2016). General equilibrium trade policy analysis with structural gravity. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6020. Lewer, J. J., & Van den Berg, H. (2007). Religion and international trade: does the sharing of a religious culture facilitate the formation of trade networks?. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 66(4), 765-794. McCallum, J. (1995). National borders matter: Canada-US regional trade patterns. The American economic review, 85(3), 615-623. Melitz, J. (2002), “Language and Foreign Trade”, CEPR Discussion Paper 3590. Michaels, G., & Zhi, X. (2010). Freedom fries. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(3), 256-281. Rose, A. K. (2007). The foreign service and foreign trade: embassies as export promotion. World Economy, 30(1), 22-38. Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and statistics, 88(4), 641-658. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy; suggestions for an international economic policy. Tyazhelnikov, V., Romalis, J., & Long, Y. (2022). Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation. Working Paper. Wei, S. J. (1996). Intra-national versus international trade: how stubborn are nations in global integration?. Yotov, Y. V., Piermartini, R., & Larch, M. (2016). An advanced guide to trade policy analysis: The structural gravity model. WTO iLibrary.zh_TW