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題名 COVID-19 疫情前後，中國簽署貨幣互換協議的影響因素變化
The Shift in Influencing Factors on China's Bilateral Swap Lines ──Pre and Post the COVID-19 Pandemic
作者 陳湘琦
Chen, Hsiang-Chi
貢獻者 朴民佑
Park, Minwoo
陳湘琦
Chen, Hsiang-Chi
關鍵詞 中國貨幣互換協議
Probit 模型
COVID-19 疫情
China’s Swap Line
Probit model
COVID-19 pandemic
日期 2024
上傳時間 5-Aug-2024 11:56:22 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究以Probit模型探討COVID-19疫情前後，中國簽署貨幣互換協議的影響因素變化，透過納入2020年後的數據並補充先前文獻較少探討的一帶一路倡議影響，旨在為研究中國貨幣互換協議的近年發展趨勢做出貢獻。 研究結果顯示，以下因素在疫情前後沒有顯著改變，持續為中國考量重點：中國更偏好與金融較封閉的國家簽署貨幣互換協議；貿易關係緊密的國家更易簽署協議；軍事合作關係始終是重要影響因素；經濟規模大且人均收入高的國家反映更多貿易機會，亦會增添簽署動機。 而疫情前後能觀察到的變化因素為是否加入一帶一路倡議及夥伴國與中國的距離。疫情前，加入一帶一路的國家更有可能簽署貨幣互換協議，但疫情後此影響變得不顯著。相反地，疫情前距離對簽署協議影響不大，而疫情後，中國更傾向於與距離較近的國家簽署協議。這反映中國在疫情後對於向各國提供流動性增添更廣泛的意願，作為全球最後貸款人角色的重要性上升，並隱含著依循地理距離由近到遠強化區域影響力的意圖。
This study uses a Probit model to examine the factors influencing China's Swap Line agreements before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. By incorporating data post-2020 and exploring the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative, this research aims to highlight recent trends in China's Swap Line agreements. The results indicate that several factors remained consistent before and after the pandemic: China prefers financially closed countries, countries with close trade relationships, and those with military cooperation. Additionally, large economies and high per capita income continue to motivate agreements. Changes observed include the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative and distance. Before the pandemic, countries in the Initiative were more likely to sign swap lines, but this became insignificant afterward. Conversely, China showed a greater tendency to sign agreements with closer countries post-pandemic. This shift reflects China's increased willingness to provide liquidity globally, enhancing its role as the lender of last resort and strengthening regional influence.
參考文獻 Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2004). Trade costs. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3), 691-751. Aizenman, J. (2009). Selective swap arrangements and the global financial crisis: Analysis and interpretation. NBER Working Paper Series, (14821). Aizenman, J. (2019). A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming’s trilemma. Economic Modelling, 81, 444-454. Aizenman, J., & Pasricha, G. K. (2010). Selective swap arrangements and the global financial crisis: Analysis and interpretation. International Review of Economics & Finance, 19(3), 353-365. Aizenman, J., Ito, H., & Pasricha, G. K. (2022). Central bank swap arrangements in the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 122, 102555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102555 Asami, T. (2001). After the Chiang Mai Initiative. IIMA Newsletter, 5. Bank for International Settlements. (1986). Recent innovations in international banking. Bank for International Settlements. Bank for International Settlements. (2022, October 27). OTC foreign exchange turnover in April 2022. Triennial Central Bank Survey. https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx22_fx.pdf Chatzky, A., McBride, J., & Berman, N. (2023, February 2). China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative Chinn, M. D., & Ito, H. (2006). What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 163-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.05.010 Garcia-Herrero, A., & Xia, L. (2015). RMB bilateral swap agreements: How China chooses its partners? Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 22(4), 368–383. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2014.960059 Gurevich, T., & Herman, P. (2018). The dynamic gravity dataset: 1948-2016. USITC Working Paper 2018-02-A. Horn, S., Parks, B. C., Reinhart, C. M., & Trebesch, C. (2023). China as an international lender of last resort (No. w31105). National Bureau of Economic Research. International Monetary Fund. (2024, May 24). Currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves. COFER Database. https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4 Liao, S., & McDowell, D. (2015). Redback rising: China’s bilateral swap agreements and Renminbi internationalization. International Studies Quarterly, 59(3), 401–422. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12161 Park, Y. S. (1984). Currency swaps as a long-term international financing technique. Journal of International Business Studies, 15(3), 47–54. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490497 Perks, M., Rao, Y., Shin, M. J., & Tokuoka, K. (2021). Evolution of bilateral swap lines. International Monetary Fund. Wang, C., Lim, M. K., Zhang, X., Zhao, L., & Lee, P. T. W. (2020). Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 134, 288-307.   2023人民幣國際化報告. (2024, May 23). Retrieved from http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5114765/2023102720175126516.pdf 上海合作組織. (n.d.). 上海合作組織. https://chn.sectsco.org/ 中國人民銀行. (2024, May 24). 央行間貨幣合作. 中國人民銀行宏觀審慎管理局. http://www.pbc.gov.cn/huobizhengceersi/214481/214511/214541/index.html 吉岡桂子, & 郭清華. (2020). 人民幣的野心: 改寫世界經濟的中國貨幣發展史. 聯經出版事業股份有限公司. 胡海. (2015). 淺析中國雙邊貨幣互換協議積極作用. 商, 37, 166. 胡華鋒. (2012). 中國貨幣互換協議的動因分析. 國際金融研究, 6, 12–19.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
111351017
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111351017
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 朴民佑zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Park, Minwooen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳湘琦zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chen, Hsiang-Chien_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳湘琦zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Hsiang-Chien_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 5-Aug-2024 11:56:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-Aug-2024 11:56:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Aug-2024 11:56:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111351017en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152394-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營與貿易學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 111351017zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以Probit模型探討COVID-19疫情前後，中國簽署貨幣互換協議的影響因素變化，透過納入2020年後的數據並補充先前文獻較少探討的一帶一路倡議影響，旨在為研究中國貨幣互換協議的近年發展趨勢做出貢獻。 研究結果顯示，以下因素在疫情前後沒有顯著改變，持續為中國考量重點：中國更偏好與金融較封閉的國家簽署貨幣互換協議；貿易關係緊密的國家更易簽署協議；軍事合作關係始終是重要影響因素；經濟規模大且人均收入高的國家反映更多貿易機會，亦會增添簽署動機。 而疫情前後能觀察到的變化因素為是否加入一帶一路倡議及夥伴國與中國的距離。疫情前，加入一帶一路的國家更有可能簽署貨幣互換協議，但疫情後此影響變得不顯著。相反地，疫情前距離對簽署協議影響不大，而疫情後，中國更傾向於與距離較近的國家簽署協議。這反映中國在疫情後對於向各國提供流動性增添更廣泛的意願，作為全球最後貸款人角色的重要性上升，並隱含著依循地理距離由近到遠強化區域影響力的意圖。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study uses a Probit model to examine the factors influencing China's Swap Line agreements before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. By incorporating data post-2020 and exploring the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative, this research aims to highlight recent trends in China's Swap Line agreements. The results indicate that several factors remained consistent before and after the pandemic: China prefers financially closed countries, countries with close trade relationships, and those with military cooperation. Additionally, large economies and high per capita income continue to motivate agreements. Changes observed include the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative and distance. Before the pandemic, countries in the Initiative were more likely to sign swap lines, but this became insignificant afterward. Conversely, China showed a greater tendency to sign agreements with closer countries post-pandemic. This shift reflects China's increased willingness to provide liquidity globally, enhancing its role as the lender of last resort and strengthening regional influence.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 5 第三節 研究架構 7 第二章 文獻回顧 8 第三章 研究方法與模型 15 第一節 資料來源 15 第二節 實證模型與方法 18 第三節 變數定義與衡量方法 24 第四章 實證結果 29 第一節 Probit模型之建立與選擇 29 第二節 邊際效果分析 39 第五章 穩健性測試 41 第一節 縮減樣本 41 第二節 替換變數 43 第三節 減少變數 43 第六章 結論 46 第一節 研究成果 46 第二節 研究建議 48 參考文獻 49 附錄 52zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2028002 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111351017en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國貨幣互換協議zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Probit 模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 疫情zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) China’s Swap Lineen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Probit modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) COVID-19 pandemicen_US
dc.title (題名) COVID-19 疫情前後，中國簽署貨幣互換協議的影響因素變化zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Shift in Influencing Factors on China's Bilateral Swap Lines ──Pre and Post the COVID-19 Pandemicen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2004). Trade costs. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3), 691-751. Aizenman, J. (2009). Selective swap arrangements and the global financial crisis: Analysis and interpretation. NBER Working Paper Series, (14821). Aizenman, J. (2019). A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming’s trilemma. Economic Modelling, 81, 444-454. Aizenman, J., & Pasricha, G. K. (2010). Selective swap arrangements and the global financial crisis: Analysis and interpretation. International Review of Economics & Finance, 19(3), 353-365. Aizenman, J., Ito, H., & Pasricha, G. K. (2022). Central bank swap arrangements in the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 122, 102555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102555 Asami, T. (2001). After the Chiang Mai Initiative. IIMA Newsletter, 5. Bank for International Settlements. (1986). Recent innovations in international banking. Bank for International Settlements. Bank for International Settlements. (2022, October 27). OTC foreign exchange turnover in April 2022. Triennial Central Bank Survey. https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx22_fx.pdf Chatzky, A., McBride, J., & Berman, N. (2023, February 2). China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative Chinn, M. D., & Ito, H. (2006). What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 163-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.05.010 Garcia-Herrero, A., & Xia, L. (2015). RMB bilateral swap agreements: How China chooses its partners? Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 22(4), 368–383. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2014.960059 Gurevich, T., & Herman, P. (2018). The dynamic gravity dataset: 1948-2016. USITC Working Paper 2018-02-A. Horn, S., Parks, B. C., Reinhart, C. M., & Trebesch, C. (2023). China as an international lender of last resort (No. w31105). National Bureau of Economic Research. International Monetary Fund. (2024, May 24). Currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves. COFER Database. https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4 Liao, S., & McDowell, D. (2015). Redback rising: China’s bilateral swap agreements and Renminbi internationalization. International Studies Quarterly, 59(3), 401–422. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12161 Park, Y. S. (1984). Currency swaps as a long-term international financing technique. Journal of International Business Studies, 15(3), 47–54. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490497 Perks, M., Rao, Y., Shin, M. J., & Tokuoka, K. (2021). Evolution of bilateral swap lines. International Monetary Fund. Wang, C., Lim, M. K., Zhang, X., Zhao, L., & Lee, P. T. W. (2020). Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 134, 288-307.   2023人民幣國際化報告. (2024, May 23). Retrieved from http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5114765/2023102720175126516.pdf 上海合作組織. (n.d.). 上海合作組織. https://chn.sectsco.org/ 中國人民銀行. (2024, May 24). 央行間貨幣合作. 中國人民銀行宏觀審慎管理局. http://www.pbc.gov.cn/huobizhengceersi/214481/214511/214541/index.html 吉岡桂子, & 郭清華. (2020). 人民幣的野心: 改寫世界經濟的中國貨幣發展史. 聯經出版事業股份有限公司. 胡海. (2015). 淺析中國雙邊貨幣互換協議積極作用. 商, 37, 166. 胡華鋒. (2012). 中國貨幣互換協議的動因分析. 國際金融研究, 6, 12–19.zh_TW