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題名 中國橫向和縱向核武擴散戰略研究
A Holistic Overview of China’s Vertical and Horizontal Nuclear Proliferation Strategy作者 包瑞德
Bauer, Reed Anderson貢獻者 何漢理
Harry Harding
包瑞德
Reed Anderson Bauer關鍵詞 核武戰略
不擴散核武器條約
飛彈及其技術控制制度
大國競爭
話語權
Nuclear Strategy
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Missile Technology Control Regime
Great Power Competition
Discourse Power日期 2024 上傳時間 5-Aug-2024 12:33:08 (UTC+8) 摘要 最適合閲讀本論文的方法是將其分成三篇有關的文章，本文的每一章聚焦於中華人民共和國的核武擴散戰略不同的面向。在第二章，本文主張美國的接觸政策對中國的核武擴散戰略的影響甚微，反而是中國的地緣政治大局對後者的影響較大，例如，蘇聯垮臺以及國際制度的正當性帶動中國的核武擴散行爲。本章也發現，中國目前的戰略使用話語權為改變《不擴散核武器條約》的原則，首先是從放棄武器原則轉型到「大國先放棄」。第三章主張中國沒有加入《飛彈及其技術控制制度》是因爲中國決策者一般而言是反對國際軟法。第四章分析中國的縱向核武擴散戰略，使用Vipin Narang的類型學研究方法，並主張中國的核武戰略仍在轉型中。從區域核武國家到核武大國，以中國的核三位一體擴展以及追求更先進的核武功能（包括Launch Under Attack (LuA) and Launch on Warning LoW）為證據。
This thesis is best read as three distinct, interrelated papers, with each chapter focusing on a different aspect of Chinese nuclear proliferation. In Chapter 2, this paper argues that the U.S. Engagement Policy had a negligible impact on China’s nuclear proliferation strategy, and that these changes were instead driven by China’s larger strategic environment, namely the collapse of the Soviet Union and the larger legitimating power of international institutionalism. This chapter also finds that China is attempting to dialectically re-shape the principles of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime away from disarmament, instead focusing on great power competition. Chapter 3 argues that China has failed to accede to the Missile Technology Control Regime due to China’s opposition to the regime’s soft-law framework, while joining the Nuclear Supplier’s Group as it did not require any internal reforms. 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國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
111862016資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111862016 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 何漢理 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Harry Harding en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 包瑞德 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Reed Anderson Bauer en_US dc.creator (作者) 包瑞德 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Bauer, Reed Anderson en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Aug-2024 12:33:08 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Aug-2024 12:33:08 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Aug-2024 12:33:08 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111862016 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152506 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111862016 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 最適合閲讀本論文的方法是將其分成三篇有關的文章，本文的每一章聚焦於中華人民共和國的核武擴散戰略不同的面向。在第二章，本文主張美國的接觸政策對中國的核武擴散戰略的影響甚微，反而是中國的地緣政治大局對後者的影響較大，例如，蘇聯垮臺以及國際制度的正當性帶動中國的核武擴散行爲。本章也發現，中國目前的戰略使用話語權為改變《不擴散核武器條約》的原則，首先是從放棄武器原則轉型到「大國先放棄」。第三章主張中國沒有加入《飛彈及其技術控制制度》是因爲中國決策者一般而言是反對國際軟法。第四章分析中國的縱向核武擴散戰略，使用Vipin Narang的類型學研究方法，並主張中國的核武戰略仍在轉型中。從區域核武國家到核武大國，以中國的核三位一體擴展以及追求更先進的核武功能（包括Launch Under Attack (LuA) and Launch on Warning LoW）為證據。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis is best read as three distinct, interrelated papers, with each chapter focusing on a different aspect of Chinese nuclear proliferation. In Chapter 2, this paper argues that the U.S. Engagement Policy had a negligible impact on China’s nuclear proliferation strategy, and that these changes were instead driven by China’s larger strategic environment, namely the collapse of the Soviet Union and the larger legitimating power of international institutionalism. This chapter also finds that China is attempting to dialectically re-shape the principles of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime away from disarmament, instead focusing on great power competition. Chapter 3 argues that China has failed to accede to the Missile Technology Control Regime due to China’s opposition to the regime’s soft-law framework, while joining the Nuclear Supplier’s Group as it did not require any internal reforms. Finally, Chapter 4 examines China’s vertical proliferation strategy, and using a typology developed by Vipin Narang, empirically argues that China is transitioning from a regional nuclear power status to a nuclear superpower, based upon the expansion of China’s nuclear triad abilities as well its pursual of additional capabilities such as Launch Under Attack (LuA) and Launch on Warning (LoW). en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Table of Contents Acknowledgements 2 Abstract 3 Chapter 1: Introduction, Historical Background, and Literature Review 7 Section 1.1: Introduction 7 1.1.1 Overview 7 1.1.2 Research Question 9 1.1.3 Importance 12 1.1.4 Definitions 13 Section 1.2: Historical Background 17 1.2.1 The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime 17 1.2.2 The Missile Technology and Control Regime 18 1.2.3 Early U.S.-China Nuclear Negotiations 20 1.2.4 Changing Dynamics in Nuclear Negotiations 22 1.2.5 Path to Compliance 23 1.2.6 Recent Trends 26 Section 1.3：Literature Review 28 1.3.1 China’s Nuclear and Proliferation Policy 28 1.3.2 China’s Grand Strategy 32 1.3.3 China’s Nuclear Weapons Strategy 36 1.3.4 U.S. Grand Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era 40 Section 1.4 Research Design and Material 47 Section 1.5: Research Methodology 49 1.5.1: Liberal Institutionalism, China, and the NPT 49 1.5.2: Hard vs Soft Law and the MTCR, NPR 51 1.5.3: China’s Regional Nuclear Power Goals 52 Chapter 2: Judging Engagement: What role did the U.S. Engagement Policy Play in Shaping China’s Nuclear Proliferation Policy? 56 Section 2.1: Introduction 56 Section 2.2: The Scholarly Debate 59 Section 2.3: Liberal Institutionalism and the NPT 63 Section 2.4: Operationalizing Policy Effectiveness 68 Section 2.5: The Impact of Engagement on China’s Nuclear Proliferation Strategy 70 2.5.1 The Engagement Policy 71 2.5.2 The Legitimating Power of the NPT 75 2.5.3 PRC Strategic Thinking 77 2.5.4 China’s Nuclear Interests 83 Section 2.6: Conclusion 86 Chapter 3: Discrepancies in Compliance: China’s Differing Attitudes Between the Missile Technology Control Regime and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime 89 Section 3.1: Introduction 89 Section 3.2: Chinese Scholarly Perception of Weapons Proliferation 92 Section 3.3 Understanding the Incentives of the MTCR vs the NPR 97 Section 3.4 Comparing the NSG and the MTCR: Efficacy and Legitimation 102 Section 3.5 Conclusion 106 Chapter 4: China’s Shifting Nuclear Strategy in an Era of Resurgent Great Power Competition 107 Section 4.1: Introduction 107 Section 4.2: Regional Nuclear Powers versus Nuclear Superpowers 110 Section 4.3: The Evolution of China’s Nuclear Strategy as a Regional Power 112 Section 4.4: Nuclear Reforms under Xi Jinping 118 4.4.1 Expansion and Advancement 119 4.4.2 Structural Changes 122 Section 4.5: Comparative Analysis of China and Russian Nuclear Posture 127 4.5.1 Capabilities 128 4.5.2 Employment Modes 135 4.5.3 Command-and-Control Procedures 138 Section 4.6 Conclusion 142 Chapter 5: Conclusion 144 Section 5.1 Discussion 144 Section 5.2: Future Research 149 References 151 English Citations 151 Chinese Citations 167 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1499938 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111862016 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 核武戰略 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 不擴散核武器條約 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 飛彈及其技術控制制度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 大國競爭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 話語權 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Nuclear Strategy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Missile Technology Control Regime en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Great Power Competition en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Discourse Power en_US dc.title (題名) 中國橫向和縱向核武擴散戰略研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Holistic Overview of China’s Vertical and Horizontal Nuclear Proliferation Strategy en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) References English Citations “50 U.S. Code § 4612 - Missile Proliferation Control Violations.” Legal Information Institute. 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