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題名 臺灣建立國土防衛隊芻議之研究：決策制定與前景
A Study of the Proposals to Establish a Territorial Defense Force in Taiwan: Decision-making and Future Prospects作者 沈德明
Spain, Josiah貢獻者 余宗基
Yu, Tsung-chi
沈德明
Spain, Josiah關鍵詞 臺灣
國土防衛隊
蔡政府
賴政府
格雷厄姆·艾利森 (Graham Allison)
決策制定
Taiwan
territorial defense force (TDF)
Tsai Administration
Lai Administration
Graham Allison
decision-making日期 2024 上傳時間 5-Aug-2024 13:01:21 (UTC+8) 摘要 近年來，幾位美國和臺灣國家安全領域的專家倡議臺灣應建立「國土防衛隊」，一個武裝、全志願、具法律正當性的社區化民兵，類似現代歐洲國家的「國土防衛隊」或「家園防衛隊」。「國土防衛隊」建立的目的是強化臺灣對中共的防禦性嚇阻，以反制中共的軍事入侵。儘管臺灣在蔡英文政府任內進行了許多國防改革，卻沒有建立「國土防衛隊」；因此，這篇論文試圖以格雷厄姆·艾利森 (Graham Allison) 教授的決策制定模型來詮釋為何蔡政府第二任期期間 (2020至2024年) 沒有具體實現此一目標。另外，這篇論文近一步檢視未來臺灣在賴清德總統領導之下(2024至2028年)是否會建立國土防衛隊。本論文的主要研究方法是針對臺灣20位相關領域專家進行結構性訪談；研究主要發現：以艾利森的官僚政治模型 (Bureaucratic Politics Model) 和組織過程模型 (Organizational Processes Model) 最能解釋為何蔡政府任內沒有建立國土防衛隊。綜言之，政治性考量因素與組織部門主義的妥協結果，使得建立國土防衛部隊可能因政治風險過高而被暫時擱置。展望未來，賴總統的領導風格顯然比較願意承擔風險，例如任命文人國防部部長等決策魄力，但本研究推論依目前「朝小野大」的國會權力結構下，賴政府想正式建立國土防衛隊的挑戰性仍然相當嚴峻。
In recent years, several experts in the US and Taiwan’s national security communities have called for Taiwan to establish a territorial defense force (TDF), an all-volunteer, lethally armed, legally legitimate, and localized militia as inspired by the various TDFs or home guards in contemporary European states. The theoretical purpose of establishing a TDF in Taiwan would be to enhance its deterrence and defense against an invasion by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Even though President Tsai Ing-wen and her administration implemented many significant defense reforms, they did not establish a TDF. Thus, this thesis attempts to use Professor Graham Allison’s decision-making models to explain why a TDF was not established in Taiwan during the second term of the Tsai Administration (2020-2024). Additionally, this thesis also evaluates the prospects of Taiwan establishing a TDF under the leadership of its new President William Lai (2024-2028). This thesis’s primary research method was structured interviews with 20 subject matter experts in Taiwan, and this research’s primary finding is that Allison’s Bureaucratic Politics Model and Organizational Processes Model best describe why Taiwan did not establish a TDF. In other words, political considerations and organizational departmentalism created a compromised outcome, where the establishment of a TDF was shelved due to its high political risk. Looking forward, President Lai appears to have a comparatively higher risk tolerance than President Tsai, as a demonstrated by his decision to break with precedent and appoint a civilian defense minister amongst other bold actions. 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國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
111926042資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111926042 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 余宗基 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Yu, Tsung-chi en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 沈德明 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Spain, Josiah en_US dc.creator (作者) 沈德明 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Spain, Josiah en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Aug-2024 13:01:21 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Aug-2024 13:01:21 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Aug-2024 13:01:21 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111926042 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152633 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111926042 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來，幾位美國和臺灣國家安全領域的專家倡議臺灣應建立「國土防衛隊」，一個武裝、全志願、具法律正當性的社區化民兵，類似現代歐洲國家的「國土防衛隊」或「家園防衛隊」。「國土防衛隊」建立的目的是強化臺灣對中共的防禦性嚇阻，以反制中共的軍事入侵。儘管臺灣在蔡英文政府任內進行了許多國防改革，卻沒有建立「國土防衛隊」；因此，這篇論文試圖以格雷厄姆·艾利森 (Graham Allison) 教授的決策制定模型來詮釋為何蔡政府第二任期期間 (2020至2024年) 沒有具體實現此一目標。另外，這篇論文近一步檢視未來臺灣在賴清德總統領導之下(2024至2028年)是否會建立國土防衛隊。本論文的主要研究方法是針對臺灣20位相關領域專家進行結構性訪談；研究主要發現：以艾利森的官僚政治模型 (Bureaucratic Politics Model) 和組織過程模型 (Organizational Processes Model) 最能解釋為何蔡政府任內沒有建立國土防衛隊。綜言之，政治性考量因素與組織部門主義的妥協結果，使得建立國土防衛部隊可能因政治風險過高而被暫時擱置。展望未來，賴總統的領導風格顯然比較願意承擔風險，例如任命文人國防部部長等決策魄力，但本研究推論依目前「朝小野大」的國會權力結構下，賴政府想正式建立國土防衛隊的挑戰性仍然相當嚴峻。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In recent years, several experts in the US and Taiwan’s national security communities have called for Taiwan to establish a territorial defense force (TDF), an all-volunteer, lethally armed, legally legitimate, and localized militia as inspired by the various TDFs or home guards in contemporary European states. The theoretical purpose of establishing a TDF in Taiwan would be to enhance its deterrence and defense against an invasion by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Even though President Tsai Ing-wen and her administration implemented many significant defense reforms, they did not establish a TDF. Thus, this thesis attempts to use Professor Graham Allison’s decision-making models to explain why a TDF was not established in Taiwan during the second term of the Tsai Administration (2020-2024). Additionally, this thesis also evaluates the prospects of Taiwan establishing a TDF under the leadership of its new President William Lai (2024-2028). This thesis’s primary research method was structured interviews with 20 subject matter experts in Taiwan, and this research’s primary finding is that Allison’s Bureaucratic Politics Model and Organizational Processes Model best describe why Taiwan did not establish a TDF. In other words, political considerations and organizational departmentalism created a compromised outcome, where the establishment of a TDF was shelved due to its high political risk. Looking forward, President Lai appears to have a comparatively higher risk tolerance than President Tsai, as a demonstrated by his decision to break with precedent and appoint a civilian defense minister amongst other bold actions. However, due to an opposition-controlled legislature, this research forecasts that the formal establishment of a TDF would be quite challenging for the Lai Administration. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1 Introduction 17 1.1 Literature Review 18 1.2 Research Questions 30 1.3 Theoretical Framework for Decision-making 30 1.4 Research Methodology 31 Chapter 2 The Origins of Taiwan’s TDF Debate 33 2.1 The European TDF Precedent 33 2.2 The Calls to Establish a TDF in Taiwan 36 2.2.1 Wave One: Asymmetric Defense (~2010s-Present) 36 2.2.2 Wave Two: The Beginning of Taiwanese Advocacy for TDF (2020-2022) 37 2.2.3 Wave Three: Post-Russian Invasion of Ukraine Advocacy to Establish a TDF in Taiwan (2022-Present) 38 2.3 The Extended TDF Debate in Taiwan (2020-2024) 40 2.3.1 Arguments for Establishing a TDF 40 2.3.2 Arguments against Establishing a TDF 45 2.3.3 US Leaders Who Support Taiwan Establishing a TDF 52 Chapter 3 Why a TDF Was Not Established During the Second Term of the Tsai Administration (2024-2024) 55 3.1 Quantitative Evidence 55 3.2 The Case for Allison’s Rational Choice Model 58 3.2.1 Setting Up the Logical Tests for the Rational Choice Model 59 3.2.2 Evidence that President Tsai Heard the Proposals to Establish a TDF 61 3.2.3 No Evidence of the Tsai Administration Deliberating the TDF Topic 62 3.2.4 Evidence that President Tsai Deliberated on Taiwan’s Defense 63 3.2.5 President Tsai’s Potential Concerns with a TDF’s Viability 65 3.2.6 Evaluation of the Rational Choice Model 68 3.3 The Case for Allison’s Organizational Processes Model 68 3.3.1 Setting Up the Logical Test for the Organizational Processes Model 69 3.3.2 The Significant Legislation and Procedures Requisite to Establish a TDF 69 3.3.3 Taiwan’s Poor Intragovernmental Coordination 75 3.3.4 Evaluation of the Organizational Processes Model 76 3.4 The Case for Allison’s Bureaucratic Politics Model 77 3.4.1 Setting Up the Logical Test for the Bureaucratic Politics Model 77 3.4.2 Taiwan’s Tense Civil-Military Relations: The Chinese versus Taiwanese Political-Ethnic Conflict 78 3.4.3 Taiwan’s Potentially Unsupportive Public Opinion for a TDF 89 3.4.4 Geopolitical Pressure for Taiwan to Not “Unilaterally Change the Status Quo” 91 3.4.5 Evaluation of the Bureaucratic Politics Model 96 3.5 Chapter Conclusion: All Three Models Simultaneously 97 Chapter 4 The Prospects of Taiwan Establishing a TDF During the First Term of the Lai Administration (2024-2028) 103 4.1 Will the Lai Administration Formally Establish a TDF? Unlikely 103 4.2 President Lai’s Resolve to Pursue Defense Reforms 114 4.3 Possible Creative Solutions 119 Chapter 5 Conclusion 125 5.1 Summary of Findings 125 5.2 Policy Recommendations 126 5.3 Research Limitations 128 5.4 Future Research 133 Appendix 1: 訪談中英雙語大綱 Chinese and English Interview Outline 135 Bibliography 139 Cited Laws 150 Interviews 153 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111926042 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 臺灣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國土防衛隊 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 蔡政府 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 賴政府 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 格雷厄姆·艾利森 (Graham Allison) zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 決策制定 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Taiwan en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) territorial defense force (TDF) en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tsai Administration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Lai Administration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Graham Allison en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) decision-making en_US dc.title (題名) 臺灣建立國土防衛隊芻議之研究：決策制定與前景 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Study of the Proposals to Establish a Territorial Defense Force in Taiwan: Decision-making and Future Prospects en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Allison, Graham T. “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” The American Political Science Review 63, no. 3 (1969): 689–718. https://doi.org/10.2307/1954423. 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