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題名 克里米亞衝突後對俄羅斯經濟制裁的影響評估：基於合成控制法的研究
Estimating the Effect of Post-Crimea Sanctions on Russia: A Synthetic Control Approach
作者 倪采靖
Ni, Tsai-Ching
貢獻者 楊子霆
Yang, Tzu-Ting
倪采靖
Ni, Tsai-Ching
關鍵詞 經濟制裁
克里米亞衝突
合成控制方法
俄羅斯經濟
國際關係
Economic sanctions
Crimea conflict
Synthetic Control Method
Russian economy
International relations
日期 2024
上傳時間 5-Aug-2024 13:28:39 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究透過合成控制方法（SCM）來探究克里米亞衝突後對俄羅斯實施的經濟制裁對其經濟產生的具體影響。本文著重於2009至2019年的經濟數據，通過對多個控制國家加權以模擬一個未受制裁的俄羅斯，再與俄羅斯的實際經濟表現進行比較。同時，通過分析俄羅斯GDP與其組成細項的變化，分解並量化了制裁對俄羅斯經濟的影響。研究發現，從2014年第四季度到2016年第四季度，在與合成俄羅斯對比之下，俄羅斯的GDP累計增長率顯著下降。2016年第二季度，GDP累計增長率的損失達到11個百分點。同樣地，消費累計增長率到2017年第二季度時已損失32個百分點。平滑後的進口累計增長率也展示了顯著的差異，2016年平均下降了50個百分點，突顯出巨大的差距。結果顯示，制裁期間俄羅斯經歷了經濟衰退，並且也因此改變了俄羅斯不同生產部門的比重，進一步證實了國際經濟制裁在經濟層面上的有效性。
This study employs the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to estimate the causal effects of economic sanctions on Russia's economy due to the Crimea conflict. This paper focuses on economic data from 2009 to 2019, using a weighted combination of control countries to simulate an unsanctioned Russia and compare it against the actual economic performance of Russia. By analyzing changes in Russia's GDP and its components, the study decomposes and quantifies the effects of the sanctions on the Russian economy. The findings indicate that from 2014Q4 to 2016Q4, Russia's cumulative GDP growth rate significantly declined compared to synthetic Russia, with a loss reaching 11 percentage points by 2016Q2. Similarly, the cumulative consumption growth rate had lost 32 percentage points by 2017Q2. The smoothed cumulative growth rate of imports also showed significant differences, with an average decline of 50 percentage points in 2016, highlighting a substantial disparity. The results demonstrate that Russia experienced an economic recession during the sanctions period and altered the proportions of different production sectors, further affirming the effectiveness of international economic sanctions at the economic level.
參考文獻 References: Abadie, A. (2021). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature, 59, 391–425. Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque country. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 113–132. Afesorgbor, S., & Mahadevan, R. (2016). The impact of economic sanctions on income inequality of target states. World Development, 83(C), 1–11. Ahn, D. P., & Ludema, R. D. (2019). The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions. Working Paper 7620, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich. Allison, R. (2014). Russian ‘deniable’ intervention in Ukraine: How and why Russia broke the rules. International Affairs, 90. Askerov, P. F., Novichkov, A. V., Novichkov, V. I., Nosova, S. S., & Rabadanov, A. R. (2016). Turbulence in the Russian economy management system. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(1S), 233–238. Ayala Castellanos, A., Blazsek, S., & Licht, A. (2022). Score-driven stochastic seasonality of the Russian rouble: An application case study for the period of 1999 to 2020. Empirical Economics, 62. Baldwin, D. A. (1985). Economic statecraft. Princeton University Press. Barseghyan, G. (2019). Sanctions and counter-sanctions: What did they do? BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT). Bukkvoll, T. (2016). Russian special operations forces in Crimea and Donbas. Parameters, 46(2). Bělín, M., & Hanousek, J. (2019). Which sanctions matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian sanctions of 2014. Discussion Paper DP13549, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Cheptea, A., & Gaigne, C. (2018). Russian food embargo and the lost trade. Working Papers 276238, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2). Chowdhry, S., Hinz, J., Kamin, K., & Wanner, J. (2022). Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes. Technical report. Crozet, M., & Hinz, J. (2016). Collateral damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports. Technical Report 2016-16, CEPII. Doxey, M. P. (1987). International Sanctions in Contemporary Perspective. Palgrave Macmillan. Drezner, D. (2011). Sanctions sometimes smart: Targeted sanctions in theory and practice. International Studies Review, 13, 96–108. Executive Order 13660. (2014). Blocking property of certain persons contributing to the situation in Ukraine. Federal Register. FR Doc No. 2014-05323. Federation, A. (2015). Analytical center for the government of the Russian Federation. Frank, R. (2006). The political economy of sanctions against North Korea. Asian Perspective, 30, 5–36. Fund, I. M. (2019). World economic outlook: Global manufacturing downturn, rising trade barriers. Technical report, Washington, DC. Gharehgozli, O. (2017). An estimation of the economic cost of recent sanctions on Iran using the synthetic control method. Economics Letters, 157(C), 141–144. Gordon, J. (2011). Smart sanctions revisited. Ethics & International Affairs, 25(3), 315–335. Gurvich, E., & Prilepskiy, I. (2015). The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian Journal of Economics, 1(4), 359–385. Haass, R. N. (1998). Economic sanctions: Too much of a bad thing. Brookings Policy Brief Series, 34. Han, B. (2021). Secondary sanctions mechanism revisited: The case of US sanctions against North Korea. Hart, R. A. (2000). Democracy and the successful use of economic sanctions. Political Research Quarterly, 53(2), 267–284. Hinz, J., & Monastyrenko, E. (2022). Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia. Journal of International Economics, 137, 103581. Hufbauer, G., Schott, J., & Elliott, K. (2009). Economic Sanctions Reconsidered (3rd ed.). Peterson Institute for International Economics. Kaempfer, W. H., & Lowenberg, A. D. (2007). The political economy of economic sanctions. In Sandler, T., & Hartley, K. (Eds.), Handbook of Defense Economics (Vol. 2, pp. 867–911). Elsevier. Kholodilin, K., & Netšunajev, A. (2019). Crimea and punishment: The impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area. Baltic Journal of Economics, 19, 39–51. Korhonen, I. (2020). Economic sanctions on Russia and their effects. CESifo Forum, 20(4). Korhonen, I., & Koskinen, K. (2019). Did sanctions reduce capital flows to Russia? Evidence from bilateral data. Technical report, BOFIT Discussion Paper. Laudati, D., & Pesaran, M. H. (2023). Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(3), 271–294. Lim, D. J., & Ferguson, V. A. (2022). Informal economic sanctions: The political economy of Chinese coercion during the THAAD dispute. Review of International Political Economy, 29(5), 1525–1548. Lindsay, J. M. (1986). Trade sanctions as policy instruments: A re-examination. International Studies Quarterly, 30(2), 153–173. Mamonov, M., & Pestova, A. (2021). "Sorry, You’re Blocked." Economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. CERGE-EI Working Papers, wp704, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague. Mirkina, I. (2018). FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects. European Journal of Political Economy, 54(C), 198–225. OFAC. (2014). Ukraine-related sanctions regulations, 31 CFR Part 589. Federal Register. Oxenstierna, S., & Olsson, P. (2015). The economic sanctions against Russia. FOI Research-report series. Pape, R. A. (1997). Why economic sanctions do not work. International Security, 22(2), 90–136. Pestova, A., & Mamonov, M. (2019). Should we care?: The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Discussion Paper 13/2019, BOFIT. Sabitova, N., & Shavaleyeva, C. (2015). Oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation: Trends and prospects. Procedia Economics and Finance, 27, 423–428. Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and Influence. Yale University Press. Szczepański, M. (2015). Economic impact on the EU of sanctions over Ukraine conflict. Briefing PE 569.020 EN, European Parliamentary Research Service, Members’ Research Service. United Nations General Assembly. (2014). Territorial integrity of Ukraine. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 27 March 2014. undocs.org/A/RES/68/262. Agenda item 33 (b). Veebel, V., & Markus, R. (2015). Lessons from the EU-Russia sanctions 2014-2015. Baltic Journal of Law & Politics, 8. Volchkova, N., Kuznetsova, P., & Turdeyeva, N. (2018). Losers and winners of Russian countersanctions: A welfare analysis. Free network policy brief series. Zani, S. (2023). Sanctions against North Korea: A descriptive analysis of their economic impact (2000–2020). Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 28.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
110266004
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110266004
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 楊子霆zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Yang, Tzu-Tingen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 倪采靖zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ni, Tsai-Chingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 倪采靖zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Ni, Tsai-Chingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2024en_US
dc.date.accessioned 5-Aug-2024 13:28:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 5-Aug-2024 13:28:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Aug-2024 13:28:39 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110266004en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152671-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 110266004zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究透過合成控制方法（SCM）來探究克里米亞衝突後對俄羅斯實施的經濟制裁對其經濟產生的具體影響。本文著重於2009至2019年的經濟數據，通過對多個控制國家加權以模擬一個未受制裁的俄羅斯，再與俄羅斯的實際經濟表現進行比較。同時，通過分析俄羅斯GDP與其組成細項的變化，分解並量化了制裁對俄羅斯經濟的影響。研究發現，從2014年第四季度到2016年第四季度，在與合成俄羅斯對比之下，俄羅斯的GDP累計增長率顯著下降。2016年第二季度，GDP累計增長率的損失達到11個百分點。同樣地，消費累計增長率到2017年第二季度時已損失32個百分點。平滑後的進口累計增長率也展示了顯著的差異，2016年平均下降了50個百分點，突顯出巨大的差距。結果顯示，制裁期間俄羅斯經歷了經濟衰退，並且也因此改變了俄羅斯不同生產部門的比重，進一步證實了國際經濟制裁在經濟層面上的有效性。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study employs the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to estimate the causal effects of economic sanctions on Russia's economy due to the Crimea conflict. This paper focuses on economic data from 2009 to 2019, using a weighted combination of control countries to simulate an unsanctioned Russia and compare it against the actual economic performance of Russia. By analyzing changes in Russia's GDP and its components, the study decomposes and quantifies the effects of the sanctions on the Russian economy. The findings indicate that from 2014Q4 to 2016Q4, Russia's cumulative GDP growth rate significantly declined compared to synthetic Russia, with a loss reaching 11 percentage points by 2016Q2. Similarly, the cumulative consumption growth rate had lost 32 percentage points by 2017Q2. The smoothed cumulative growth rate of imports also showed significant differences, with an average decline of 50 percentage points in 2016, highlighting a substantial disparity. The results demonstrate that Russia experienced an economic recession during the sanctions period and altered the proportions of different production sectors, further affirming the effectiveness of international economic sanctions at the economic level.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Acknowledgements i Chinese Abstract ii Abstract iii 1 Introduction 1 2 Background 2 2.1 The Crimea Crisis and Counter-Aggression Sanctions 2 2.2 US and EU Response to the Crimean Crisis 3 2.2.1 US Sanctions 3 2.2.2 EU Sanctions 5 2.3 Effectiveness of Sanctions 6 2.4 Russia’s Response to Sanctions and Countermeasures 7 3 Literature Review 8 3.1 Historical Instances of Economic Sanctions 9 3.1.1 The Origins and Evolution of Economic Sanctions 9 3.1.2 Theories Derived from Economic Sanction Cases and Their Analysis 9 3.1.3 Case Study: Sanctions in the Gulf War 10 3.1.4 Examples of Economic Sanctions: Iran and North Korea 11 3.2 Previous Studies on Russian Economic Sanctions 11 3.3 SCM and Economic Sanctions on Russia 13 4 Empirical Method 15 4.1 Constructing the SC 15 4.2 Statistical Significance 18 5 Data and Sample 20 5.1 Data 20 5.2 Sample 20 6 Results 21 6.1 Overview 21 6.2 SC Estimates 22 6.2.1 GDP Cumulative Growth Rate 22 6.3 The Cumulative Growth Rates of the Individual Components of GDP 23 6.3.1 Consumption Cumulative Growth Rate 23 6.3.2 Investment Cumulative Growth Rate 24 6.3.3 Government Spending Cumulative Growth Rate 25 6.3.4 Imports and Exports Cumulative Growth Rate 25 6.4 RMSPE ratio 27 6.5 Robustness Test Analysis 28 6.5.1 Time-Series Robustness Check 28 6.5.2 Leave-One-Out Sensitivity Analysis 30 6.6 Additional Analysis: The Role of China as a Donor and Its Impact on Sanction Effectiveness 31 6.6.1 Model Analysis with and without China 31 7 Discussion 32 7.1 Discussion on GDP and its Components 32 7.2 Discussion on Current Russia Based on the Results of This Paper 33 7.3 Future Work 35 8 Conclusion 35 References 37 A Appendix 42zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2410601 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110266004en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟制裁zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 克里米亞衝突zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 合成控制方法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 俄羅斯經濟zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic sanctionsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Crimea conflicten_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Synthetic Control Methoden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Russian economyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) International relationsen_US
dc.title (題名) 克里米亞衝突後對俄羅斯經濟制裁的影響評估：基於合成控制法的研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Estimating the Effect of Post-Crimea Sanctions on Russia: A Synthetic Control Approachen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) References: Abadie, A. (2021). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature, 59, 391–425. Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque country. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 113–132. Afesorgbor, S., & Mahadevan, R. (2016). The impact of economic sanctions on income inequality of target states. World Development, 83(C), 1–11. Ahn, D. P., & Ludema, R. D. (2019). The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions. Working Paper 7620, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich. Allison, R. (2014). Russian ‘deniable’ intervention in Ukraine: How and why Russia broke the rules. International Affairs, 90. Askerov, P. F., Novichkov, A. V., Novichkov, V. I., Nosova, S. S., & Rabadanov, A. R. (2016). Turbulence in the Russian economy management system. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(1S), 233–238. Ayala Castellanos, A., Blazsek, S., & Licht, A. (2022). Score-driven stochastic seasonality of the Russian rouble: An application case study for the period of 1999 to 2020. Empirical Economics, 62. Baldwin, D. A. (1985). Economic statecraft. Princeton University Press. Barseghyan, G. (2019). Sanctions and counter-sanctions: What did they do? BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT). Bukkvoll, T. (2016). Russian special operations forces in Crimea and Donbas. Parameters, 46(2). Bělín, M., & Hanousek, J. (2019). Which sanctions matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian sanctions of 2014. Discussion Paper DP13549, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Cheptea, A., & Gaigne, C. (2018). Russian food embargo and the lost trade. Working Papers 276238, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2). Chowdhry, S., Hinz, J., Kamin, K., & Wanner, J. (2022). Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes. Technical report. Crozet, M., & Hinz, J. (2016). Collateral damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports. Technical Report 2016-16, CEPII. Doxey, M. P. (1987). International Sanctions in Contemporary Perspective. Palgrave Macmillan. Drezner, D. (2011). Sanctions sometimes smart: Targeted sanctions in theory and practice. International Studies Review, 13, 96–108. Executive Order 13660. (2014). Blocking property of certain persons contributing to the situation in Ukraine. Federal Register. FR Doc No. 2014-05323. Federation, A. (2015). Analytical center for the government of the Russian Federation. Frank, R. (2006). The political economy of sanctions against North Korea. Asian Perspective, 30, 5–36. Fund, I. M. (2019). World economic outlook: Global manufacturing downturn, rising trade barriers. Technical report, Washington, DC. Gharehgozli, O. (2017). An estimation of the economic cost of recent sanctions on Iran using the synthetic control method. Economics Letters, 157(C), 141–144. Gordon, J. (2011). Smart sanctions revisited. Ethics & International Affairs, 25(3), 315–335. Gurvich, E., & Prilepskiy, I. (2015). The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian Journal of Economics, 1(4), 359–385. Haass, R. N. (1998). Economic sanctions: Too much of a bad thing. Brookings Policy Brief Series, 34. Han, B. (2021). Secondary sanctions mechanism revisited: The case of US sanctions against North Korea. Hart, R. A. (2000). Democracy and the successful use of economic sanctions. Political Research Quarterly, 53(2), 267–284. Hinz, J., & Monastyrenko, E. (2022). Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia. Journal of International Economics, 137, 103581. Hufbauer, G., Schott, J., & Elliott, K. (2009). Economic Sanctions Reconsidered (3rd ed.). Peterson Institute for International Economics. Kaempfer, W. H., & Lowenberg, A. D. (2007). The political economy of economic sanctions. In Sandler, T., & Hartley, K. (Eds.), Handbook of Defense Economics (Vol. 2, pp. 867–911). Elsevier. Kholodilin, K., & Netšunajev, A. (2019). Crimea and punishment: The impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area. Baltic Journal of Economics, 19, 39–51. Korhonen, I. (2020). Economic sanctions on Russia and their effects. CESifo Forum, 20(4). Korhonen, I., & Koskinen, K. (2019). Did sanctions reduce capital flows to Russia? Evidence from bilateral data. Technical report, BOFIT Discussion Paper. Laudati, D., & Pesaran, M. H. (2023). Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(3), 271–294. Lim, D. J., & Ferguson, V. A. (2022). Informal economic sanctions: The political economy of Chinese coercion during the THAAD dispute. Review of International Political Economy, 29(5), 1525–1548. Lindsay, J. M. (1986). Trade sanctions as policy instruments: A re-examination. International Studies Quarterly, 30(2), 153–173. Mamonov, M., & Pestova, A. (2021). "Sorry, You’re Blocked." Economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. CERGE-EI Working Papers, wp704, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague. Mirkina, I. (2018). FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects. European Journal of Political Economy, 54(C), 198–225. OFAC. (2014). Ukraine-related sanctions regulations, 31 CFR Part 589. Federal Register. Oxenstierna, S., & Olsson, P. (2015). The economic sanctions against Russia. FOI Research-report series. Pape, R. A. (1997). Why economic sanctions do not work. International Security, 22(2), 90–136. Pestova, A., & Mamonov, M. (2019). Should we care?: The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Discussion Paper 13/2019, BOFIT. Sabitova, N., & Shavaleyeva, C. (2015). Oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation: Trends and prospects. Procedia Economics and Finance, 27, 423–428. Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and Influence. Yale University Press. Szczepański, M. (2015). Economic impact on the EU of sanctions over Ukraine conflict. Briefing PE 569.020 EN, European Parliamentary Research Service, Members’ Research Service. United Nations General Assembly. (2014). Territorial integrity of Ukraine. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 27 March 2014. undocs.org/A/RES/68/262. Agenda item 33 (b). Veebel, V., & Markus, R. (2015). Lessons from the EU-Russia sanctions 2014-2015. Baltic Journal of Law & Politics, 8. Volchkova, N., Kuznetsova, P., & Turdeyeva, N. (2018). Losers and winners of Russian countersanctions: A welfare analysis. Free network policy brief series. Zani, S. (2023). Sanctions against North Korea: A descriptive analysis of their economic impact (2000–2020). Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 28.zh_TW