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題名 通勤月票對於公共運輸使用之影響—雙北1,280月票與基北北桃1,200月票之分析
The Impacts of Transit Passes on Public Transportation Usage-An Analysis of the 1,280 and the 1,200 Monthly Passes作者 黃歆容
Huang, Hsin-Jung貢獻者 陳國樑
黃歆容
Huang, Hsin-Jung關鍵詞 公共運輸
月票
搭乘量
差異中的差異法
時間斷點不連續迴歸法
Public transportation
Monthly pass
Ridership
Difference-in-Differences
Regression Discontinuity in Time日期 2024 上傳時間 5-Aug-2024 14:43:48 (UTC+8) 摘要 近年，政府實施了一些付費公共運輸定期票政策，例如1,280月票和1,200月票，希望能夠鼓勵民眾搭乘公共運輸。然而目前國內使用嚴謹的方法分析月票政策效果的文獻仍然不足，如果月票對增加公共運輸搭乘人次的效果不顯著，月票政策的成本和效益可能無法平衡，因此本研究透過2016年至2023年臺北捷運每日進出站人次資料，以時間斷點不連續迴歸法 (regression discontinuity in time, RDiT) 和差異中的差異法 (difference-in-differences, DID) 分析2018年4月實施的1,280月票和2023年7月實施的1,200月票對於公共運輸使用的影響。 實證結果有以下發現：一、以1,280月票而言，RDiT的估計結果發現1,280月票為臺北捷運的搭乘人次帶來約5% 的成長，而DID的估計結果則顯示1,280月票政策提升臺北捷運搭乘人次約2.3%。二、DID的估計結果雖然發現1,200月票提升臺北捷運搭乘人次約3%，然而RDiT的估計反而指出1,200月票讓臺北捷運搭乘人次下降，兩者估計結果的差異可能在於實施期間適逢暑假，使得RDiT難以分離出暑假及月票的政策效果。三、比較兩次月票的成效，1,200月票對於公共運輸的使用似乎未有額外的刺激，因此政府如欲進一步提升民眾搭乘公共運輸的意願，應重新檢討目前的1,200月票政策，並評估採用其他類型政策的可行性。
The government implemented some transit passes such as 1,280 monthly pass and 1,200 monthly pass to encourage people taking public transportation in recent years. Nevertheless, there are not enough rigorous literatures researching the effect of monthly pass. If these monthly passes do not increase public transportation ridership significantly, they are not cost-effective. In this study, we collect daily data of Taipei MRT ridership from 2016 to 2023, and use regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) and difference-in-differences (DID) to analyze the impact of 1,280 monthly pass implemented in 2018 and 1,200 monthly pass implemented in 2023 on public transportation usage. The results demonstrate the following findings: First, the results from RDiT demonstrate that 1,280 monthly pass led to a 5% growth in Taipei MRT ridership, while the results from DID indicate it contributed to a 2.3% growth in Taipei MRT ridership. Seconds, the results from DID demonstrate that 1,200 monthly pass approximately increased Taipei MRT ridership by 3%, whereas the results from RDiT point out that it decreased Taipei MRT ridership. The disparity between the result from RDiT and the results from DID may be due to the implementation period of 1,200 monthly pass coinciding with the summer vacation. The problem makes it difficult to isolate the effect of summer vacation and the policy effect of monthly pass. Last but not least, we find out that 1,200 monthly pass does not provide additional stimulation for public transportation usage by comparing the policy effect of 1,280 monthly pass and 1,200 monthly pass. If the government aims to increase public transportation ridership further, it should reconsider the existing 1,200 monthly pass and assess the feasibility of other policy options.參考文獻 方炳超 (2019)，「1,280月票滿周年》議員批運量沒成長、政策失意義 北市交通局未來打算這樣做」，《風傳媒》，2019年4月23日。 伍大開、陳國樑、沈盈妤、黃勢璋與羅時萬，「當沖降稅對臺股市場流動性、波動性與稅收之影響：DID分析法」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，即將出版。 朱庭慶 (2019)，《考慮不同搭乘距離的捷運定期票價格制定模式》，碩士論文，國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所。 交通部統計處 (2023)，「111年民眾日常使用運具狀況調查摘要分析」，交通部分析報告。 吳招億 (2018)，《公共運輸定期票購買意願之影響因素分析》，碩士論文，國立交通大學管理學院運輸物流學程。 林雨佑 (2022)，「【綠色運輸篇】淨零目標逼近，從汽機車、公車捷運規劃看六都減碳藍圖」，《報導者》，2022年11月17日。 陳子萱 (2023)，「TPASS上路，替60萬通勤族省荷包…自駕族仍不願『棄車』成瓶頸，專家：先解決這3件事」，《今周刊》，2023年7月26日。 陳其華與吳招億 (2020)，「影響公共運輸定期票選擇行為因素之探討」，交通部運輸研究所自行研究計畫。 陳冠穎 (2022)，《都市公共運輸使用者之跨運具定期票票價政策分析—以臺北都會區為例》，碩士論文，國立陽明交通大學運輸與物流管理學系。 陳國樑 (2023)，「月票補貼政策有違公平又違法」，《聯合報》，2023年4月10日。 張恩睿 (2021)，《論雙北公共運輸定期票政策之效果與影響》，碩士論文，國立政治大學經濟學系。 楊子霆 (2018)，「簡介Regression Discontinuity Design：理論與應用」，《會計審計論叢》，8，29–48。 臺北市政府 (2018)，「公共運輸定期票執行成效檢討書面報告」，臺北市議會第12屆第8次定期大會報告。 臺北市政府交通局 (2023)，「都會通定期票推動情形」，臺北市政府交通會報。 鄭宇哲 (2018)，「捷運『吃到飽月票』能轉移搭乘行為嗎？數據證明價格不是唯一誘因」，《關鍵評論網》，2018年3月16日。 樊家忠 (2018)，「尋找平行世界－Differences-in-Differences之方法與應用」，《會計審計論叢》，8，1–13。 蔡鳳凰、伍大開、陳國樑、周德宇與黃勢璋 (2021)，「退稅便利性與外籍旅客消費－臺北101內部資料分析」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，52(1)，83–117。 Abrams, D. 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國立政治大學
財政學系
111255002資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255002 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳國樑 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃歆容 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang, Hsin-Jung en_US dc.creator (作者) 黃歆容 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Huang, Hsin-Jung en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Aug-2024 14:43:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Aug-2024 14:43:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Aug-2024 14:43:48 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111255002 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152900 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111255002 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年，政府實施了一些付費公共運輸定期票政策，例如1,280月票和1,200月票，希望能夠鼓勵民眾搭乘公共運輸。然而目前國內使用嚴謹的方法分析月票政策效果的文獻仍然不足，如果月票對增加公共運輸搭乘人次的效果不顯著，月票政策的成本和效益可能無法平衡，因此本研究透過2016年至2023年臺北捷運每日進出站人次資料，以時間斷點不連續迴歸法 (regression discontinuity in time, RDiT) 和差異中的差異法 (difference-in-differences, DID) 分析2018年4月實施的1,280月票和2023年7月實施的1,200月票對於公共運輸使用的影響。 實證結果有以下發現：一、以1,280月票而言，RDiT的估計結果發現1,280月票為臺北捷運的搭乘人次帶來約5% 的成長，而DID的估計結果則顯示1,280月票政策提升臺北捷運搭乘人次約2.3%。二、DID的估計結果雖然發現1,200月票提升臺北捷運搭乘人次約3%，然而RDiT的估計反而指出1,200月票讓臺北捷運搭乘人次下降，兩者估計結果的差異可能在於實施期間適逢暑假，使得RDiT難以分離出暑假及月票的政策效果。三、比較兩次月票的成效，1,200月票對於公共運輸的使用似乎未有額外的刺激，因此政府如欲進一步提升民眾搭乘公共運輸的意願，應重新檢討目前的1,200月票政策，並評估採用其他類型政策的可行性。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The government implemented some transit passes such as 1,280 monthly pass and 1,200 monthly pass to encourage people taking public transportation in recent years. Nevertheless, there are not enough rigorous literatures researching the effect of monthly pass. If these monthly passes do not increase public transportation ridership significantly, they are not cost-effective. In this study, we collect daily data of Taipei MRT ridership from 2016 to 2023, and use regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) and difference-in-differences (DID) to analyze the impact of 1,280 monthly pass implemented in 2018 and 1,200 monthly pass implemented in 2023 on public transportation usage. The results demonstrate the following findings: First, the results from RDiT demonstrate that 1,280 monthly pass led to a 5% growth in Taipei MRT ridership, while the results from DID indicate it contributed to a 2.3% growth in Taipei MRT ridership. Seconds, the results from DID demonstrate that 1,200 monthly pass approximately increased Taipei MRT ridership by 3%, whereas the results from RDiT point out that it decreased Taipei MRT ridership. The disparity between the result from RDiT and the results from DID may be due to the implementation period of 1,200 monthly pass coinciding with the summer vacation. The problem makes it difficult to isolate the effect of summer vacation and the policy effect of monthly pass. Last but not least, we find out that 1,200 monthly pass does not provide additional stimulation for public transportation usage by comparing the policy effect of 1,280 monthly pass and 1,200 monthly pass. If the government aims to increase public transportation ridership further, it should reconsider the existing 1,200 monthly pass and assess the feasibility of other policy options. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 8 第三節 研究架構 15 第貳章 文獻回顧 16 第一節 較低公共運輸票價或免費公共運輸政策 17 第二節 免費公共運輸定期票卡政策 20 第三節 付費公共運輸定期票政策 22 第四節 其他公共運輸優惠政策或其他事件 24 第參章 制度背景 25 第肆章 研究方法 28 第一節 資料特性 28 一、資料來源 28 二、樣本篩選 28 第二節 敘述性統計 32 第三節 實證模型 42 一、1,280月票 42 (一) 研究設計 42 (二) 迴歸模型 45 二、1,200月票 47 (一) 研究設計 47 (二) 迴歸模型 51 第伍章 實證結果 54 第一節 1,280月票 54 一、RDiT迴歸結果 54 二、DID迴歸結果 58 第二節 1,200月票 62 一、RDiT迴歸結果 62 二、DID迴歸結果 70 三、1,200月票政策效果比較與討論 78 第三節 穩健性測試 83 第陸章 結論與建議 91 參考文獻 95 附錄 103 zh_TW dc.format.extent 5523191 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255002 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公共運輸 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 月票 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 搭乘量 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中的差異法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 時間斷點不連續迴歸法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Public transportation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Monthly pass en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Ridership en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference-in-Differences en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regression Discontinuity in Time en_US dc.title (題名) 通勤月票對於公共運輸使用之影響—雙北1,280月票與基北北桃1,200月票之分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impacts of Transit Passes on Public Transportation Usage-An Analysis of the 1,280 and the 1,200 Monthly Passes en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 方炳超 (2019)，「1,280月票滿周年》議員批運量沒成長、政策失意義 北市交通局未來打算這樣做」，《風傳媒》，2019年4月23日。 伍大開、陳國樑、沈盈妤、黃勢璋與羅時萬，「當沖降稅對臺股市場流動性、波動性與稅收之影響：DID分析法」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，即將出版。 朱庭慶 (2019)，《考慮不同搭乘距離的捷運定期票價格制定模式》，碩士論文，國立臺北大學都市計劃研究所。 交通部統計處 (2023)，「111年民眾日常使用運具狀況調查摘要分析」，交通部分析報告。 吳招億 (2018)，《公共運輸定期票購買意願之影響因素分析》，碩士論文，國立交通大學管理學院運輸物流學程。 林雨佑 (2022)，「【綠色運輸篇】淨零目標逼近，從汽機車、公車捷運規劃看六都減碳藍圖」，《報導者》，2022年11月17日。 陳子萱 (2023)，「TPASS上路，替60萬通勤族省荷包…自駕族仍不願『棄車』成瓶頸，專家：先解決這3件事」，《今周刊》，2023年7月26日。 陳其華與吳招億 (2020)，「影響公共運輸定期票選擇行為因素之探討」，交通部運輸研究所自行研究計畫。 陳冠穎 (2022)，《都市公共運輸使用者之跨運具定期票票價政策分析—以臺北都會區為例》，碩士論文，國立陽明交通大學運輸與物流管理學系。 陳國樑 (2023)，「月票補貼政策有違公平又違法」，《聯合報》，2023年4月10日。 張恩睿 (2021)，《論雙北公共運輸定期票政策之效果與影響》，碩士論文，國立政治大學經濟學系。 楊子霆 (2018)，「簡介Regression Discontinuity Design：理論與應用」，《會計審計論叢》，8，29–48。 臺北市政府 (2018)，「公共運輸定期票執行成效檢討書面報告」，臺北市議會第12屆第8次定期大會報告。 臺北市政府交通局 (2023)，「都會通定期票推動情形」，臺北市政府交通會報。 鄭宇哲 (2018)，「捷運『吃到飽月票』能轉移搭乘行為嗎？數據證明價格不是唯一誘因」，《關鍵評論網》，2018年3月16日。 樊家忠 (2018)，「尋找平行世界－Differences-in-Differences之方法與應用」，《會計審計論叢》，8，1–13。 蔡鳳凰、伍大開、陳國樑、周德宇與黃勢璋 (2021)，「退稅便利性與外籍旅客消費－臺北101內部資料分析」，《臺灣經濟預測與政策》，52(1)，83–117。 Abrams, D. 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