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題名 中央與地方選舉對臺灣各縣市 財政表現之影響
The Effect of Central and Local Elections on the Fiscal Performance of Local Governments in Taiwan作者 羅沛妤
Lo, Pei-Yu貢獻者 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
羅沛妤
Lo, Pei-Yu關鍵詞 地方政府財政表現
綜合財務狀況分數
選舉年
動態空間自我迴歸模型
廣義動差法
Local Government Fiscal Performance
Comprehensive Fiscal Condition Scores
Election Year
Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Models
Generalized Method of Moments日期 2024 上傳時間 5-Aug-2024 14:44:35 (UTC+8) 摘要 地方政府的財政表現在政府的運作中具有重要的影響，它是提供教育、醫療、交通等公共服務的主要資金來源，直接影響了當地居民的生活品質與社會福利。因此，地方政府如何維持良好的財政表現是一項重要的課題。 選舉作為民主社會中不可或缺的一部分，象徵著公民對政治運作的參與和選擇權利。在臺灣，選舉活動不僅僅是政治體制的核心特徵，更是社會發展和政治穩定的重要組成部分。然而，選舉所帶來的影響不僅限於政治範疇，也會對於經濟和地方政府財政表現產生影響。因此，本研究之目的即在探討選舉年對地方政府財政表現的影響。 本研究以臺灣二十個縣市，於2011年至2022年期間之追蹤資料作為樣本，探討地方、中央選舉年對於地方政府財政表現之影響，以及地方政府財政表現的空間相關性與動態效果。研究中使用計算綜合財務狀況分數此指標做為衡量地方政府財政表現的方法。除此之外，使用廣義動差法（Generalized Moment of Method，簡稱GMM）於動態空間自我迴歸模型（Dynamic spatial autoregressive，簡稱DSAR）中，估計地方、中央選舉年等因素對於地方政府財政表現之影響。 實證研究結果顯示，地方政府財政表現的空間相關性和動態效果皆有正向影響，強調良好的前期財政表現對於地方政府當期的財政表現的重要性；地方選舉年、失業率對於地方政府綜合財政狀況分數存在負向影響；中央選舉年對於地方政府綜合財政狀況分數則有正向影響。
The fiscal performance of local governments has a significant impact on the functioning of government operations. It serves as the primary source of funding for public services such as education, healthcare, and transportation, directly affecting the quality of life and social welfare of local residents. Therefore, how local governments maintain good fiscal performance is an important issue. Elections, as an indispensable part of democratic societies, symbolize citizens' participation in political processes and their right to choose. In Taiwan, electoral activities are not only core features of the political system but also integral components of social development and political stability. However, the impact of elections extends beyond the political realm and affects economic and local government fiscal conditions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the effect of election years on local government fiscal performance. Using panel data from twenty cities in Taiwan, tracked from 2011 to 2022, this study examines the effects of local and central election years on local government fiscal performance, as well as the spatial correlation and dynamic effects of local government fiscal performance. The study employs the calculation of a comprehensive financial condition score as an indicator of local government fiscal performance. Additionally, the study utilizes the Generalized Method of Moments（GMM）in Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Models（DSAR）to estimate the effects of factors such as local and central election years on local government fiscal performance. The empirical results indicate positive spatial correlation and dynamic effects on local government fiscal performance, underscoring the significance of strong prior fiscal performance for current local government fiscal performance. Local election years and unemployment rates negatively impact the comprehensive fiscal condition scores of local governments, while central election years positively influence these scores.參考文獻 王有康（2006），「我國地方財政為題之研究」，《國立空中大學商學系商學學報》，15，頁1-29。 吳重禮（2007），「分立政府與經濟表現：1992年至2006年臺灣經驗的分析」，《臺灣政治學刊》，11，頁53-91 林恭正、姚名鴻、黃崇哲、蘇建榮（2014），「台灣直轄市及縣市政府財政指標建置之初探」，《財稅研究》，44（1），頁1-22。 姚名鴻、林恭正、黃崇哲、蘇建榮（2019），「衡量我國地方政府財務狀況及其影響因素之分析」，《應用經濟論叢》，105，頁123-173。 傅彥凱（2006），「地方政府預算制定之政治經濟分析：政治預算循環的觀點」，《選舉研究》，13（1），頁119-162。 曾巨威（2004），「地方財政能力與教育經費負擔之分攤機制」，《人文及社會科學集刊》，16（2），頁197-239。 黃瓊如、何艷宏（2015），「政經因素對我國地方財政健康之影響」，《財稅研究》，44（4），頁25-60。 廖興中、呂佩安（2013），「臺灣縣市政府貪腐現象之空間自相關分析」，《臺灣民主季刊》，10（2），頁39-72。 Alam, B. M. and A. Hoque (2017), “Measuring Financial Condition of Urban Local Government：A Study of Municipalities in Bangladesh.” The Journal of Developing Areas, 51(2), 71–85. Arellano, M.A. and S.R. Bond (1991), “Some Test of Specification for Panel Data：Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297. Arellano, Manuel and Olympia Bover (1995), “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models.” Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51. Avellaneda, C.N. and R.C. Gomes (2017), “Mayoral Quality and Municipal Performance in Brazilian Local Governments.” O&S - Salvador, 24(83), 555–579. Baltagi, B.H., B. Fingleton, and A. Pirotte (2014), “Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Data Model.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 76(1), 112–138. Brender, A., and A. Drazen (2005), “Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1271–1295. Brown, K.W. (1993), “The 10-Point Test of Financial Condition: Toward an Easy-to-use Assessment Tool for Smaller Cities.” Government Finance Review, 9, 21–26. Hallerberg, M. and J. Hagen (1999), “Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union.” NBER Working Paper No. 6341. Hendrick, R. (2004), “Assessing and Measuring the Fiscal Heath of Local Governments Focus on Chicago Suburban Municipalities.” Urban Affairs Review, 40(4), 78–114. Hibbs, D.A. (1977), “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” The American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467–1487. Kleine, R., P. Kloha, and C.S. Weissert (2003), “Monitoring Local Government Fiscal Health: Michigan’s New 10-Point Scale of Fiscal Distress.” Government Finance Review, 19, 18–23. Kloha, P., C.S. Weissert, and R. Kleine (2005), “Developing and Testing a Composite Model to Predict Local Fiscal Distress.” Public Administration Review, 65, 313–323. Levin, A., C.F. Lin, and C.S.J. Chu (2005), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties.” Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1–24. McDonald, B.D. (2018), “Local Governance and the Issue of Fiscal Health.” State & Local Government Review, 50(1), 46–55. Murray, D. and B. Dollery (2005), “Local Government Performance Monitoring in New South Wales: Are ‘AT RISK’ Councils Really at Risk?” Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 24(4), 332– 345. Nordhaus, W.D. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle.” The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169–190. Reck, J.L., S.L. Lowensohn, and E.R. Wilson (2013), Accounting for Governmental & Nonprofit Entities. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin Press. Schuknecht, L. (1996), “Political Business Cycle in Developing Countries.” Kyklos, 49(2), 155–170. Shi, M. and J. Svensson (2006), “Political Budget Cycles: Do They Differ across Countries and Why?” Journal of Public Economics, 90, 1367–1389. Soto, Marcelo (2009), “System GMM Estimation with a Small Sample.” Working Papers 395, Barcelona School of Economics. Wang, X., L. Dennis, and Y.S.J. Tu (2007), “Measuring Financial Condition: A Study of U.S.” Public Budgeting & Finance, 27(2), 1–21 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
111255009資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255009 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃智聰 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Huang, Jr-Tsung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 羅沛妤 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Lo, Pei-Yu en_US dc.creator (作者) 羅沛妤 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Lo, Pei-Yu en_US dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 5-Aug-2024 14:44:35 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 5-Aug-2024 14:44:35 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 5-Aug-2024 14:44:35 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0111255009 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152904 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 財政學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 111255009 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 地方政府的財政表現在政府的運作中具有重要的影響，它是提供教育、醫療、交通等公共服務的主要資金來源，直接影響了當地居民的生活品質與社會福利。因此，地方政府如何維持良好的財政表現是一項重要的課題。 選舉作為民主社會中不可或缺的一部分，象徵著公民對政治運作的參與和選擇權利。在臺灣，選舉活動不僅僅是政治體制的核心特徵，更是社會發展和政治穩定的重要組成部分。然而，選舉所帶來的影響不僅限於政治範疇，也會對於經濟和地方政府財政表現產生影響。因此，本研究之目的即在探討選舉年對地方政府財政表現的影響。 本研究以臺灣二十個縣市，於2011年至2022年期間之追蹤資料作為樣本，探討地方、中央選舉年對於地方政府財政表現之影響，以及地方政府財政表現的空間相關性與動態效果。研究中使用計算綜合財務狀況分數此指標做為衡量地方政府財政表現的方法。除此之外，使用廣義動差法（Generalized Moment of Method，簡稱GMM）於動態空間自我迴歸模型（Dynamic spatial autoregressive，簡稱DSAR）中，估計地方、中央選舉年等因素對於地方政府財政表現之影響。 實證研究結果顯示，地方政府財政表現的空間相關性和動態效果皆有正向影響，強調良好的前期財政表現對於地方政府當期的財政表現的重要性；地方選舉年、失業率對於地方政府綜合財政狀況分數存在負向影響；中央選舉年對於地方政府綜合財政狀況分數則有正向影響。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The fiscal performance of local governments has a significant impact on the functioning of government operations. It serves as the primary source of funding for public services such as education, healthcare, and transportation, directly affecting the quality of life and social welfare of local residents. Therefore, how local governments maintain good fiscal performance is an important issue. Elections, as an indispensable part of democratic societies, symbolize citizens' participation in political processes and their right to choose. In Taiwan, electoral activities are not only core features of the political system but also integral components of social development and political stability. However, the impact of elections extends beyond the political realm and affects economic and local government fiscal conditions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the effect of election years on local government fiscal performance. Using panel data from twenty cities in Taiwan, tracked from 2011 to 2022, this study examines the effects of local and central election years on local government fiscal performance, as well as the spatial correlation and dynamic effects of local government fiscal performance. The study employs the calculation of a comprehensive financial condition score as an indicator of local government fiscal performance. Additionally, the study utilizes the Generalized Method of Moments（GMM）in Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Models（DSAR）to estimate the effects of factors such as local and central election years on local government fiscal performance. The empirical results indicate positive spatial correlation and dynamic effects on local government fiscal performance, underscoring the significance of strong prior fiscal performance for current local government fiscal performance. Local election years and unemployment rates negatively impact the comprehensive fiscal condition scores of local governments, while central election years positively influence these scores. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、研究目的與架構 1 第一節、研究動機與目的 1 第二節、研究貢獻 3 第三節、研究流程與架構 4 第二章、文獻回顧 6 第一節、地方政府財政表現評估方法 6 第二節、影響財政表現因素文獻回顧 13 第三章、臺灣現況分析 18 第一節、建立臺灣各縣市財務狀況指標 18 第二節、各縣市「綜合財務狀況分數」 21 第三節、臺灣歷年選舉情況 29 第四章、研究方法 30 第一節、空間動態GMM模型設定 30 第二節、實證模型設定 32 第三節、變數說明與資料來源 34 第五章、實證結果與分析 41 第一節、單根檢定 41 第二節、實證結果分析 44 第三節、穩健性測試 49 第六章、結論 51 第一節、研究結論 51 第二節、政策建議 53 參考文獻 55 一、中文文獻 55 二、英文文獻 56 附錄 59 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2779776 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111255009 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地方政府財政表現 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 綜合財務狀況分數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 選舉年 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態空間自我迴歸模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 廣義動差法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Local Government Fiscal Performance en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Comprehensive Fiscal Condition Scores en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Election Year en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dynamic Spatial Autoregressive Models en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Generalized Method of Moments en_US dc.title (題名) 中央與地方選舉對臺灣各縣市 財政表現之影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Effect of Central and Local Elections on the Fiscal Performance of Local Governments in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王有康（2006），「我國地方財政為題之研究」，《國立空中大學商學系商學學報》，15，頁1-29。 吳重禮（2007），「分立政府與經濟表現：1992年至2006年臺灣經驗的分析」，《臺灣政治學刊》，11，頁53-91 林恭正、姚名鴻、黃崇哲、蘇建榮（2014），「台灣直轄市及縣市政府財政指標建置之初探」，《財稅研究》，44（1），頁1-22。 姚名鴻、林恭正、黃崇哲、蘇建榮（2019），「衡量我國地方政府財務狀況及其影響因素之分析」，《應用經濟論叢》，105，頁123-173。 傅彥凱（2006），「地方政府預算制定之政治經濟分析：政治預算循環的觀點」，《選舉研究》，13（1），頁119-162。 曾巨威（2004），「地方財政能力與教育經費負擔之分攤機制」，《人文及社會科學集刊》，16（2），頁197-239。 黃瓊如、何艷宏（2015），「政經因素對我國地方財政健康之影響」，《財稅研究》，44（4），頁25-60。 廖興中、呂佩安（2013），「臺灣縣市政府貪腐現象之空間自相關分析」，《臺灣民主季刊》，10（2），頁39-72。 Alam, B. M. and A. Hoque (2017), “Measuring Financial Condition of Urban Local Government：A Study of Municipalities in Bangladesh.” The Journal of Developing Areas, 51(2), 71–85. Arellano, M.A. and S.R. Bond (1991), “Some Test of Specification for Panel Data：Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297. Arellano, Manuel and Olympia Bover (1995), “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models.” Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51. Avellaneda, C.N. and R.C. Gomes (2017), “Mayoral Quality and Municipal Performance in Brazilian Local Governments.” O&S - Salvador, 24(83), 555–579. Baltagi, B.H., B. Fingleton, and A. Pirotte (2014), “Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Data Model.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 76(1), 112–138. Brender, A., and A. Drazen (2005), “Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1271–1295. Brown, K.W. (1993), “The 10-Point Test of Financial Condition: Toward an Easy-to-use Assessment Tool for Smaller Cities.” Government Finance Review, 9, 21–26. Hallerberg, M. and J. Hagen (1999), “Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union.” NBER Working Paper No. 6341. Hendrick, R. (2004), “Assessing and Measuring the Fiscal Heath of Local Governments Focus on Chicago Suburban Municipalities.” Urban Affairs Review, 40(4), 78–114. Hibbs, D.A. (1977), “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” The American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467–1487. Kleine, R., P. Kloha, and C.S. Weissert (2003), “Monitoring Local Government Fiscal Health: Michigan’s New 10-Point Scale of Fiscal Distress.” Government Finance Review, 19, 18–23. Kloha, P., C.S. Weissert, and R. Kleine (2005), “Developing and Testing a Composite Model to Predict Local Fiscal Distress.” Public Administration Review, 65, 313–323. Levin, A., C.F. Lin, and C.S.J. Chu (2005), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties.” Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1–24. McDonald, B.D. (2018), “Local Governance and the Issue of Fiscal Health.” State & Local Government Review, 50(1), 46–55. Murray, D. and B. Dollery (2005), “Local Government Performance Monitoring in New South Wales: Are ‘AT RISK’ Councils Really at Risk?” Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 24(4), 332– 345. Nordhaus, W.D. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle.” The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169–190. Reck, J.L., S.L. Lowensohn, and E.R. Wilson (2013), Accounting for Governmental & Nonprofit Entities. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill/Irwin Press. Schuknecht, L. (1996), “Political Business Cycle in Developing Countries.” Kyklos, 49(2), 155–170. Shi, M. and J. Svensson (2006), “Political Budget Cycles: Do They Differ across Countries and Why?” Journal of Public Economics, 90, 1367–1389. Soto, Marcelo (2009), “System GMM Estimation with a Small Sample.” Working Papers 395, Barcelona School of Economics. Wang, X., L. Dennis, and Y.S.J. Tu (2007), “Measuring Financial Condition: A Study of U.S.” Public Budgeting & Finance, 27(2), 1–21 zh_TW
