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題名 氣候變遷與死亡率的關係
The Impact of Climate Change on Mortality Rates作者 簡廷儒
Chien, Ting-Ju貢獻者 余清祥
Yu, Cing-Siang
簡廷儒
Chien, Ting-Ju關鍵詞 極端氣候
危險因子
氣候分析
標準死亡比
地區差異
Extreme climate
Risk factors
Climate analysis
Standardize mortality ratio
Regional difference日期 2023 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 13:39:48 (UTC+8) 摘要 近年極端氣候頻頻出現在世界各地，超出歷史平均的高低溫、短時間急遽降雨、乾旱等天候現象影響我們生活品質及人身安全，進而導致土地沙漠化及鹽化面積更加擴大，適合居住及農耕畜牧的土地愈見縮小。氣候異常影響層面非常廣泛，世界衛生組織認為氣候變遷是21世紀人類面臨的最大威脅，造成疾病肆虐、糧食短缺、空氣及水污染，提高了交通運輸及物流的成本，阻礙人類的經濟活動及溝通交流。氣候與人類健康的關係多半導因於人口脆弱性，弱勢群體對風險承擔能力相對不足，尤其是經濟弱勢、老年人口等，極端氣候對這些族群的影響特別明顯。 本文以探討臺灣氣候變遷為目標，評估極端氣候對我國居民的健康影響，研究結合各鄉鎮市氣象觀測站資料、人口資料，以鄉鎮市為單位探討氣候與死亡率的相關性。研究發現臺灣氣溫有逐漸上升的趨勢，而且溫度波動與極端值出現的次數越來越頻繁，符合溫室效應的暖化定義。此外，分析發現臺灣死亡率在一年中有明顯的週期變化，每年三月份的標準死亡比最高；標準死亡比與地區有顯著相關，各地區受到的影響強度也取決於氣候因子。例如：北部及山區死亡率容易受到低溫的影響，中西部平原死亡率則因為晝夜溫差而有較大波動。
In recent years, extreme weather has become more common across the world, with increasing frequency of abnormal phenomena, such as extreme temperature, flash heavy rain and droughts. Climate anomaly not only threat our quality of life and safety but also reduce the areas suitable for habitation and cultivation. World Health Organization identifies climate change as the most threatening disaster to humanity in the 21st century, causing raging diseases, food shortages, and air and water pollution. It increases the cost of transportation and logistics and hinders human economic activities. Vulnerable groups have relatively poor ability to bear climate risks, especially the socially disadvantaged and elderly populations. The study aims to explore climate change in Taiwan and evaluate how the extreme weather affects the health of residents. The research combines weather and mortality data from Taiwan government in the county and township level. We found that the mean and variance of temperature in Taiwan are increasing, consistent with the global warming effects. Furthermore, we also found that the monthly mortality rate meets the condition of seasonality, reaching a peak in March. The mortality rate is highly correlated with regional climate factors, and the degree of impact varies in different regions. For example, the mortality rate in northern and mountain regions is more sensitive to low temperatures, while the mortality rate in the central and western plains fluctuates greatly due to the temperature difference between day and night.參考文獻 一、 中文部分 江信緯（2015）。「臺灣分區人口死亡率之解析」，長庚大學醫務管理學系碩士論文。 余清祥、梁穎誼、郭柔芸（2022）。「地理加權迴歸在視覺化分析之探討」，《中國統計學報》，60，208-232。 余清祥、梁穎誼、林佩柔（2022）。「健康、醫療利用與人口移動的關聯」，《地理學報》，80，55-80。 邱祈榮、梁玉琦、賴彥任、黃名媛（2004）。「臺灣地區氣候分區與應用之研究」，《臺灣地理資訊學刊》，1，41-62。 許晃雄、周佳、吳宜昭、盧孟明、陳正達、陳永明（2012）。「臺灣氣候變遷的關鍵議題」，《臺灣醫學》，16（5），459-470。 樓邦儒、賈立人（2000）。「柯本氣候分類與模糊氣候分類之比較—以臺灣為例」，《國立臺北師範學院學報》，13，293-310。 蔣丙然（1954）。「臺灣氣候誌」，《臺灣研究叢刊》，第26種，台灣銀行經濟研究室編印，220頁。 二、 英文部分 Ahmad, O. B., Boschi-Pinto, C., Lopez, A. D., Murray, C. J., Lozano, R., & Inoue, M. (2001). Age standardization of rates: A new WHO standard. Geneva: World Health Organization, 9(10), 1-14. Abbas, E. Z., & Mylene, T. S. (2005). On the association between high temperature and mortality in warm climates. Science of The Total Environment, 343, 273-275, 343, 273-275 Analitis, A., Katsouyanni, K., Biggeri, A., Baccini, M., Forsberg, B., Bisanti, L., Kirchmayer, U., Ballester, F., Cadum, E., Goodman, P. G., Hojs, A., Sunyer, J., Tiittanen, P., & Michelozzi, P. (2018). Effects of cold weather on mortality: Results from 15 European cities within the PHEWE project. American Journal of Epidemiology, 168(12), 1397-1408. Braganza, K., Karoly, D. J., & Arblaster, J. M. (2004). Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(13), L13217. Díaz, J., García, R., López, C., Linares, C., Tobías, A., & Prieto, L. (2005). Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures. International Journal of Biometeorology, 49(3), 179–183. Gasparrini, A., Guo, Y., Hashizume, M., Lavigne, E., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., ... & Armstrong, B. (2015). Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: A multi-country observational study. The Lancet, 386(9991), 369-375. Hu, P., Zhang, Q., Shi, P., Chen, B., & Fang, J. (2018). Flood-induced mortality across the globe: Spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors. Science of The Total Environment, 643, 171-182. Koeppen, W. (1936). Das geographische System der Klimate. Handbuch der Klimatologie. Berlin: Borntraeger, Bd. 1, Teil. C. Lee, W., Bell, M. L., Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B. G., Sera, F., Hwang, S., Lavigne, E., Zanobetti, A., de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M., Saldiva, P. H. N., Osorio, S., Tobias, A., Zeka, A., Goodman, P. G., Forsberg, B., Rocklöv, J., Hashizume, M., Honda, Y., Guo, Y.-L. L., Seposo, X., & Kim, H. (2018). Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study. Environment International, 110, 123-130. Lim, Y. H., Hong, Y., & Kim, C. H. (2011). Effects of diurnal temperature range on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Korea. Science of The Total Environment, 417-418, 55-60. Lim, Y. H., Reid, C. E., Mann, J. K., Jerrett, M., & Kim, H. (2015). Diurnal temperature range and short-term mortality in large US communities. International Journal of Biometeorology, 59, 1311-1319. Switanek, M., Crailsheim, K., Truhetz, H., & Brodschneider, R. (2017). Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate. Science of The Total Environment, 579, 1581-1587. Trenberth, K. E. (2011). Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research, 47(123-138). 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
110358027資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110358027 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 余清祥 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Yu, Cing-Siang en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 簡廷儒 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chien, Ting-Ju en_US dc.creator (作者) 簡廷儒 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Chien, Ting-Ju en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 13:39:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 13:39:48 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 13:39:48 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110358027 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153061 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110358027 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年極端氣候頻頻出現在世界各地，超出歷史平均的高低溫、短時間急遽降雨、乾旱等天候現象影響我們生活品質及人身安全，進而導致土地沙漠化及鹽化面積更加擴大，適合居住及農耕畜牧的土地愈見縮小。氣候異常影響層面非常廣泛，世界衛生組織認為氣候變遷是21世紀人類面臨的最大威脅，造成疾病肆虐、糧食短缺、空氣及水污染，提高了交通運輸及物流的成本，阻礙人類的經濟活動及溝通交流。氣候與人類健康的關係多半導因於人口脆弱性，弱勢群體對風險承擔能力相對不足，尤其是經濟弱勢、老年人口等，極端氣候對這些族群的影響特別明顯。 本文以探討臺灣氣候變遷為目標，評估極端氣候對我國居民的健康影響，研究結合各鄉鎮市氣象觀測站資料、人口資料，以鄉鎮市為單位探討氣候與死亡率的相關性。研究發現臺灣氣溫有逐漸上升的趨勢，而且溫度波動與極端值出現的次數越來越頻繁，符合溫室效應的暖化定義。此外，分析發現臺灣死亡率在一年中有明顯的週期變化，每年三月份的標準死亡比最高；標準死亡比與地區有顯著相關，各地區受到的影響強度也取決於氣候因子。例如：北部及山區死亡率容易受到低溫的影響，中西部平原死亡率則因為晝夜溫差而有較大波動。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In recent years, extreme weather has become more common across the world, with increasing frequency of abnormal phenomena, such as extreme temperature, flash heavy rain and droughts. Climate anomaly not only threat our quality of life and safety but also reduce the areas suitable for habitation and cultivation. World Health Organization identifies climate change as the most threatening disaster to humanity in the 21st century, causing raging diseases, food shortages, and air and water pollution. It increases the cost of transportation and logistics and hinders human economic activities. Vulnerable groups have relatively poor ability to bear climate risks, especially the socially disadvantaged and elderly populations. The study aims to explore climate change in Taiwan and evaluate how the extreme weather affects the health of residents. The research combines weather and mortality data from Taiwan government in the county and township level. We found that the mean and variance of temperature in Taiwan are increasing, consistent with the global warming effects. Furthermore, we also found that the monthly mortality rate meets the condition of seasonality, reaching a peak in March. The mortality rate is highly correlated with regional climate factors, and the degree of impact varies in different regions. For example, the mortality rate in northern and mountain regions is more sensitive to low temperatures, while the mortality rate in the central and western plains fluctuates greatly due to the temperature difference between day and night. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機 1 第二節 研究目的 4 第二章 文獻回顧與研究方法 5 第一節 文獻回顧 5 第二節 資料庫介紹 8 第三節 研究方法 10 第三章 臺灣氣候資料分析 14 第一節 臺灣氣溫概述 15 第二節 晝夜溫差 21 第四章 臺灣死亡資料分析 25 第一節 死亡率年趨勢 25 第二節 地區因素 27 第三節 季節性因素 34 第五章 死亡率與氣候指標 37 第一節 冷暖季節之影響 37 第二節 氣候分群中的死亡率分析 39 第六章 結論與建議 43 第一節 結論 43 第二節 建議與限制 44 參考文獻 46 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2798613 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110358027 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 極端氣候 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 危險因子 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 氣候分析 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 標準死亡比 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地區差異 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Extreme climate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Risk factors en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Climate analysis en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Standardize mortality ratio en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Regional difference en_US dc.title (題名) 氣候變遷與死亡率的關係 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Impact of Climate Change on Mortality Rates en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文部分 江信緯（2015）。「臺灣分區人口死亡率之解析」，長庚大學醫務管理學系碩士論文。 余清祥、梁穎誼、郭柔芸（2022）。「地理加權迴歸在視覺化分析之探討」，《中國統計學報》，60，208-232。 余清祥、梁穎誼、林佩柔（2022）。「健康、醫療利用與人口移動的關聯」，《地理學報》，80，55-80。 邱祈榮、梁玉琦、賴彥任、黃名媛（2004）。「臺灣地區氣候分區與應用之研究」，《臺灣地理資訊學刊》，1，41-62。 許晃雄、周佳、吳宜昭、盧孟明、陳正達、陳永明（2012）。「臺灣氣候變遷的關鍵議題」，《臺灣醫學》，16（5），459-470。 樓邦儒、賈立人（2000）。「柯本氣候分類與模糊氣候分類之比較—以臺灣為例」，《國立臺北師範學院學報》，13，293-310。 蔣丙然（1954）。「臺灣氣候誌」，《臺灣研究叢刊》，第26種，台灣銀行經濟研究室編印，220頁。 二、 英文部分 Ahmad, O. B., Boschi-Pinto, C., Lopez, A. D., Murray, C. J., Lozano, R., & Inoue, M. (2001). Age standardization of rates: A new WHO standard. Geneva: World Health Organization, 9(10), 1-14. Abbas, E. Z., & Mylene, T. S. (2005). On the association between high temperature and mortality in warm climates. Science of The Total Environment, 343, 273-275, 343, 273-275 Analitis, A., Katsouyanni, K., Biggeri, A., Baccini, M., Forsberg, B., Bisanti, L., Kirchmayer, U., Ballester, F., Cadum, E., Goodman, P. G., Hojs, A., Sunyer, J., Tiittanen, P., & Michelozzi, P. (2018). Effects of cold weather on mortality: Results from 15 European cities within the PHEWE project. American Journal of Epidemiology, 168(12), 1397-1408. Braganza, K., Karoly, D. J., & Arblaster, J. M. (2004). Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(13), L13217. Díaz, J., García, R., López, C., Linares, C., Tobías, A., & Prieto, L. (2005). Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures. International Journal of Biometeorology, 49(3), 179–183. Gasparrini, A., Guo, Y., Hashizume, M., Lavigne, E., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., ... & Armstrong, B. (2015). Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: A multi-country observational study. The Lancet, 386(9991), 369-375. Hu, P., Zhang, Q., Shi, P., Chen, B., & Fang, J. (2018). Flood-induced mortality across the globe: Spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors. Science of The Total Environment, 643, 171-182. Koeppen, W. (1936). Das geographische System der Klimate. Handbuch der Klimatologie. Berlin: Borntraeger, Bd. 1, Teil. C. Lee, W., Bell, M. L., Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B. G., Sera, F., Hwang, S., Lavigne, E., Zanobetti, A., de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M., Saldiva, P. H. N., Osorio, S., Tobias, A., Zeka, A., Goodman, P. G., Forsberg, B., Rocklöv, J., Hashizume, M., Honda, Y., Guo, Y.-L. L., Seposo, X., & Kim, H. (2018). Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes: A multi-country study. Environment International, 110, 123-130. Lim, Y. H., Hong, Y., & Kim, C. H. (2011). Effects of diurnal temperature range on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Korea. Science of The Total Environment, 417-418, 55-60. Lim, Y. H., Reid, C. E., Mann, J. K., Jerrett, M., & Kim, H. (2015). Diurnal temperature range and short-term mortality in large US communities. International Journal of Biometeorology, 59, 1311-1319. Switanek, M., Crailsheim, K., Truhetz, H., & Brodschneider, R. (2017). Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate. Science of The Total Environment, 579, 1581-1587. Trenberth, K. E. (2011). Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research, 47(123-138). zh_TW
