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題名 價格管制、產業環境與創新擴散對廠商競爭動態的影響-以臺灣電信業為例
The impact of price cap, industrial environment, and innovation diffusion on firm's competition dynamics：The case study of Taiwan's telecommunications industry作者 李淑華 貢獻者 吳豐祥<br>許牧彥
李淑華關鍵詞 Bass模型
價格管制
創新擴散
競爭與合作
Lotka-Volterra 模型
Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型
競爭動態
Bass model,
price regulation
innovation diffusion
competition and cooperation
Lotka-Volterra model
Bass-Lotra Model
competition dynamics日期 2024 上傳時間 4-Sep-2024 13:59:03 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究主要探討價格管制、電信產業環境與創新擴散對於廠商競爭動態的影響，並比較Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型(簡稱BLV)與Lotka-Volterra模型 (簡稱LV)在評估和預測廠商競爭動態方面的效果。以往研究僅透過銷售額（價格與數量）來探討競爭與合作之間的關係，未同時考量價格影響、創新擴散及技術世代交替的效果。因此，本研究將價格分開處理，並假設市場規模是不因價格而變動的常數，這與臺灣電信產業市場的實況相符。然後，本研究以電信產業為例，援引創新擴散理論中的Bass模型來修正LV模型（純數量的競爭合作模型），並將技術世代的更新視為改變電信廠商競爭與合作格局的機會點，將創新擴散及世代交替的影響分離出來，進一步探討廠商競爭與合作的動態。過往研究中，Smítalová & Šujan（1991）以Lotka-Volterra模型中的交互影響係數來判斷競合關係，卻未能考慮模型係數求解過程中，係數值應該基於實際市場狀況而受到限制。本研究基於此動機對模型係數之可求解之數值範圍進行控制，使得研究結果在實證中更具意義和解釋力。這一調整使模型不僅能夠更準確地描述產業競爭中的競合關係，還可以更全面地反映各競爭者之間的複雜互動。 研究顯示價格變動對電信業者市佔率影響的有限性，以4G資費的降價行為為例，即使電信業者推出促銷方案，市場市佔率依然保持穩定，顯示出用戶在簽訂長期契約後，價格因素對其決策的影響較小。這一現象表明，價格在短期內對用戶數量的變化影響不大，在市場規模維持穩定情況下，BLV模型能夠更準確地預測市場競爭動態。本研究進一步將創新擴散理論與技術世代的更新納入考量，提出修正的BLV模型來提升預測準確性。臺灣電信產業市場在規模穩定的前提下，又兼具2G、3G、4G和5G之間技術世代交替過程中的市佔變化，是以援引4G為範例來研究2G、3G轉入至4G以及4G轉出至5G對4G市佔之影響。結果顯示，在考慮技術世代交替的情況後，修正的BLV模型在4G成長期的預測績效優於傳統LV模型。此外，當進一步對修正的BLV模型係數之可求解範圍進行控制時，不但整體模型更具理論解釋力，其預測績效亦較傳統LV模型更為理想。本研究的貢獻即在於提供Lotka-Volterra模型與Logistic創新擴散模型之間的理論連結，並將其應用於多家廠商間的競爭樣態分析。尤其是首次將技術世代轉換率納入考量，推導出更廣泛適用的BLV模型。 本研究整合創新擴散與世代交替的競合動態模型可以更準確地衡量廠商的競爭與合作關係。這個研究成果對於企業管理者在擬定競合策略時或政府主管機構在管制產業的競爭合作動態上都有極高的應用價值。例如：國家通訊委員會對市場主導者的價格管制、公平交易委員會對廠商聯合壟斷行為的裁量，都可用本研究所揭示的方法來衡量廠商的競爭與合作關係。
This study explores the impact of price regulation, the telecom industry environment, and innovation diffusion on the competitive dynamics of firms. It also compares the effectiveness of the Bass-Lotka-Volterra (BLV) model and the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model in evaluating and predicting these dynamics. The research finds that studies in the past have only examined the relationship between competition and cooperation through sales volume (price and quantity), without considering the effects of price, innovation diffusion, and generation alternation of technology. Therefore, this study isolates the price effect and assumes that market size is a constant unaffected by price, which aligns with Taiwan's telecom industry market status. Using Taiwan telecom indurstry as a case study, this study then applies the Bass model from innovation diffusion theory to refine the LV model (a competition-cooperation model purely based on quantity). It treats technological generation shift as opportunities that alter the competitive and cooperative dynamics among telecom firms, separating the effects of innovation diffusion and generational transitions. Furthermore, previous research by Smítalová & Šujan (1991) was limited in using only the interaction coefficient in the Lotka-Volterra model to assess competitive relationships, but fails to consider that the numerical values of the model coefficients shall be constrained by market status. This study controls the numerical value space of model coefficients, making the numerical results of the model coefficients to be meaningful and interpretable in acutual applications. This adjustment allows the model not only to more accurately describe the competitive relationships within the industry but also to more comprehensively reflect the complex interactions among competitors. The study reveals the impact of price fluctuations on the market share of telecom operators is limited. Using 4G tariff reductions as an example, it shows that irrespective of promotional offers from telecom operators, the market share remained stable. This indicates that once suscribing long-term contracts, price becomes a less significant factor in users’ decision-making. This phenomenon suggests that price changes have limited effect on the total number of subscribption in the short term. Thus, when the market size remains stable, the BLV model serves as a more accurate tool for predicting market competition dynamics. The study further incorporates innovation diffusion theory and technological generational shifts into the analysis, proposing a modified BLV model, to enhance predictive accuracy. Since the market size of Taiwan telecom industry is stable and provides market share transitional status during technological generation shift between 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G, 4G market share is used as a case study for studying the impact on 4G market share when transitioning from 2G and 3G, and transitioning to 5G. The results indicate that, under consideration of technological generation shift, the modified BLV model outperforms the traditional LV model in predicting market dynamics during the 4G growth period. When further constraining the numerical value space of the model coefficients of the modificed BLV model, it not only demonstrates superior predictive performance but also provides better theoretically interpretable parameters than the LV model and traditional BLV model. The academic contribution of this study thus lies in providing the theoretical connection between the Lotka-Volterra model and the Logistic innovation diffusion model, applying it to the analysis of competitive patterns among multiple firms. Notably, this research is the first to incorporate technological generation transition rates, resulting in the derivation of the more broadly applicable BLVc model. As a result, the proposed model in this study, which integrates innovation diffusion and technology generational shifts, can more accurately assess the competitive and cooperative relationships among firms. These findings provide high practical value for corporate managers in formulating competitive and cooperative strategies and for government regulatory bodies in managing industry competition and cooperation dynamics. 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國立政治大學
科技管理與智慧財產研究所
104364504資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104364504 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 吳豐祥<br>許牧彥 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李淑華 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 李淑華 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2024 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Sep-2024 13:59:03 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Sep-2024 13:59:03 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Sep-2024 13:59:03 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0104364504 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153127 - dc.description (描述) 博士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 科技管理與智慧財產研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 104364504 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究主要探討價格管制、電信產業環境與創新擴散對於廠商競爭動態的影響，並比較Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型(簡稱BLV)與Lotka-Volterra模型 (簡稱LV)在評估和預測廠商競爭動態方面的效果。以往研究僅透過銷售額（價格與數量）來探討競爭與合作之間的關係，未同時考量價格影響、創新擴散及技術世代交替的效果。因此，本研究將價格分開處理，並假設市場規模是不因價格而變動的常數，這與臺灣電信產業市場的實況相符。然後，本研究以電信產業為例，援引創新擴散理論中的Bass模型來修正LV模型（純數量的競爭合作模型），並將技術世代的更新視為改變電信廠商競爭與合作格局的機會點，將創新擴散及世代交替的影響分離出來，進一步探討廠商競爭與合作的動態。過往研究中，Smítalová & Šujan（1991）以Lotka-Volterra模型中的交互影響係數來判斷競合關係，卻未能考慮模型係數求解過程中，係數值應該基於實際市場狀況而受到限制。本研究基於此動機對模型係數之可求解之數值範圍進行控制，使得研究結果在實證中更具意義和解釋力。這一調整使模型不僅能夠更準確地描述產業競爭中的競合關係，還可以更全面地反映各競爭者之間的複雜互動。 研究顯示價格變動對電信業者市佔率影響的有限性，以4G資費的降價行為為例，即使電信業者推出促銷方案，市場市佔率依然保持穩定，顯示出用戶在簽訂長期契約後，價格因素對其決策的影響較小。這一現象表明，價格在短期內對用戶數量的變化影響不大，在市場規模維持穩定情況下，BLV模型能夠更準確地預測市場競爭動態。本研究進一步將創新擴散理論與技術世代的更新納入考量，提出修正的BLV模型來提升預測準確性。臺灣電信產業市場在規模穩定的前提下，又兼具2G、3G、4G和5G之間技術世代交替過程中的市佔變化，是以援引4G為範例來研究2G、3G轉入至4G以及4G轉出至5G對4G市佔之影響。結果顯示，在考慮技術世代交替的情況後，修正的BLV模型在4G成長期的預測績效優於傳統LV模型。此外，當進一步對修正的BLV模型係數之可求解範圍進行控制時，不但整體模型更具理論解釋力，其預測績效亦較傳統LV模型更為理想。本研究的貢獻即在於提供Lotka-Volterra模型與Logistic創新擴散模型之間的理論連結，並將其應用於多家廠商間的競爭樣態分析。尤其是首次將技術世代轉換率納入考量，推導出更廣泛適用的BLV模型。 本研究整合創新擴散與世代交替的競合動態模型可以更準確地衡量廠商的競爭與合作關係。這個研究成果對於企業管理者在擬定競合策略時或政府主管機構在管制產業的競爭合作動態上都有極高的應用價值。例如：國家通訊委員會對市場主導者的價格管制、公平交易委員會對廠商聯合壟斷行為的裁量，都可用本研究所揭示的方法來衡量廠商的競爭與合作關係。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study explores the impact of price regulation, the telecom industry environment, and innovation diffusion on the competitive dynamics of firms. It also compares the effectiveness of the Bass-Lotka-Volterra (BLV) model and the Lotka-Volterra (LV) model in evaluating and predicting these dynamics. The research finds that studies in the past have only examined the relationship between competition and cooperation through sales volume (price and quantity), without considering the effects of price, innovation diffusion, and generation alternation of technology. Therefore, this study isolates the price effect and assumes that market size is a constant unaffected by price, which aligns with Taiwan's telecom industry market status. Using Taiwan telecom indurstry as a case study, this study then applies the Bass model from innovation diffusion theory to refine the LV model (a competition-cooperation model purely based on quantity). It treats technological generation shift as opportunities that alter the competitive and cooperative dynamics among telecom firms, separating the effects of innovation diffusion and generational transitions. Furthermore, previous research by Smítalová & Šujan (1991) was limited in using only the interaction coefficient in the Lotka-Volterra model to assess competitive relationships, but fails to consider that the numerical values of the model coefficients shall be constrained by market status. This study controls the numerical value space of model coefficients, making the numerical results of the model coefficients to be meaningful and interpretable in acutual applications. This adjustment allows the model not only to more accurately describe the competitive relationships within the industry but also to more comprehensively reflect the complex interactions among competitors. The study reveals the impact of price fluctuations on the market share of telecom operators is limited. Using 4G tariff reductions as an example, it shows that irrespective of promotional offers from telecom operators, the market share remained stable. This indicates that once suscribing long-term contracts, price becomes a less significant factor in users’ decision-making. This phenomenon suggests that price changes have limited effect on the total number of subscribption in the short term. Thus, when the market size remains stable, the BLV model serves as a more accurate tool for predicting market competition dynamics. The study further incorporates innovation diffusion theory and technological generational shifts into the analysis, proposing a modified BLV model, to enhance predictive accuracy. Since the market size of Taiwan telecom industry is stable and provides market share transitional status during technological generation shift between 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G, 4G market share is used as a case study for studying the impact on 4G market share when transitioning from 2G and 3G, and transitioning to 5G. The results indicate that, under consideration of technological generation shift, the modified BLV model outperforms the traditional LV model in predicting market dynamics during the 4G growth period. When further constraining the numerical value space of the model coefficients of the modificed BLV model, it not only demonstrates superior predictive performance but also provides better theoretically interpretable parameters than the LV model and traditional BLV model. The academic contribution of this study thus lies in providing the theoretical connection between the Lotka-Volterra model and the Logistic innovation diffusion model, applying it to the analysis of competitive patterns among multiple firms. Notably, this research is the first to incorporate technological generation transition rates, resulting in the derivation of the more broadly applicable BLVc model. As a result, the proposed model in this study, which integrates innovation diffusion and technology generational shifts, can more accurately assess the competitive and cooperative relationships among firms. These findings provide high practical value for corporate managers in formulating competitive and cooperative strategies and for government regulatory bodies in managing industry competition and cooperation dynamics. For example, the National Communications Commission (NCC)'s price regulation for market leaders and the Fair-Trade Commission's decisions on joint monopolistic behavior by firms can use the methods revealed in this study to measure the competitive and cooperative relationships among firms. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 謝詞 i 摘要 ii Abstract iv 第一章 緒論 11 第一節 研究背景與動機 11 第二節 研究目的 14 第二章 文獻探討 16 第一節 我國電信產業環境 16 第二節 電信產業的價格管制 21 第三節 創新擴散理論 23 第四節 競爭合作文獻 29 第五節 文獻小結與研究缺口 42 第三章 研究方法與設計 45 第一節 研究模型的設定 46 第二節 三種動態競合模型：LV, BLVu, BLVc 47 第三節 研究對象的選擇及數據來源 50 第四節 理論參數和模型係數的換算推導 54 第五節 模型最佳化及評估 55 第四章 研究結果一：價格管制與廠商的競爭動態 59 第一節 我國電信產業發展沿革 59 第二節 各廠商的用戶數變化趨勢 66 第三節 各廠商的價格的變化趨勢 66 第四節 各廠商的競爭與市佔率變化趨勢 72 第五節 結果分析與討論 76 第五章 研究結果二：產業環境、創新擴散與競爭動態 82 第一節 模型績效 82 第二節 模型之電腦模擬結果的比較分析 87 第三節 BLVc模型所估計的競合關係 94 第四節 結果分析與討論 97 第六章 結論與建議 102 第一節 結論 102 第二節 學術貢獻與意涵 103 第三節 實務貢獻與意涵 104 第四節 後續研究的建議 105 參考文獻 108 中文 108 英文 108 網頁 114 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104364504 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Bass模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價格管制 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 創新擴散 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 競爭與合作 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Lotka-Volterra 模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 競爭動態 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Bass model, en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) price regulation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) innovation diffusion en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) competition and cooperation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Lotka-Volterra model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Bass-Lotra Model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) competition dynamics en_US dc.title (題名) 價格管制、產業環境與創新擴散對廠商競爭動態的影響-以臺灣電信業為例 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The impact of price cap, industrial environment, and innovation diffusion on firm's competition dynamics：The case study of Taiwan's telecommunications industry en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文 1. 王明妤、張美清 (2002)。以加入價格之擴散模型探討國人出國旅遊之擴散。2002年管理創新與新願景研討會，新北市，臺灣。 2. 交通部電信總局 (2002)。我國電信競爭力分析。委託研究報告。 3. 施曉娟、王盈勛、郭良文 (2004)。行動通訊服務產業市場結構與廠商行為之研究。碩士論文，國立交通大學。 4. 國家通訊傳播委員會 (2023)。特定電信服務市場之市場顯著地位者特別管制措施。NCC NEWS，17(3)。 5. 許牧彥、高偉哲、邱郁雯、 李淑華 (2024)。邁向創新擴散與產業動態之一般性預測模型—以Bass-Lotka-Volterra模型分析Intel及AMD之競合。科技管理學刊，29(1)，65-102。 6. 蘇俊吉 (2015)。行動通信的演進歷程。科學發展，513(58-63)。 英文 7. 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